Monday, August 5, 2019

Islamic State’s Offensive Could Be Winding Down


(Shafaaq News)
The Islamic State’s latest offensive Revenge of the Levant appears to be coming to an end. It was announced in April and peaked in May. Since then the number of incidents has declined each month.



There were a total of 82 incidents in Iraq in July. This was the second month the number of attacks had gone down in the country. In April the Islamic State started its annual campaign. The month before there were just 59 incidents, the lowest monthly total since 2003. In April there was 97, then 135 in May, before going sliding down to 93 in June and then 82 in July. This was far below last year’s offensive when there was an average of 168 attacks per month. The government launched a two part major sweep through four provinces during the month which could have accounted for the low attack figures. Then again, incidents were down in governorates that were not included so something else was going on during the month. The United Nations reported that IS is increasing its attacks in Syria so it might be concentrating there more than in Iraq currently.

There were 202 casualties during the month. That included 1 Peshmerga, 4 Asayesh, 9 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 14 Hashd al-Shaabi, and 55 civilians that lost their lives for a total of 83 deaths. Another 4 Peshmerga, 7 Asayesh, 21 Hashd, 22 ISF, and 65 civilians were injured for a total of 119 that were wounded. 18 corpses were found in the Sinjar district, victims of IS, that left 65 violent deaths during the month. Surprisingly Baghdad had the most casualties with 42. Usually Diyala has the most attacks and the highest number of dead and wounded.

Violence has wildly fluctuated in Anbar, Kirkuk, Ninewa and Salahaddin.

Attacks have gone up and down nearly every month in Anbar. In March before Revenge of the Levant there were just 5 incidents. That went up to 16 in April, down to 7 in May, up to 13 in June, and then back down to 5 in July. It seems like the province is a secondary front today and mostly being used to move men and material back and forth from Syria. Anbar was also included in the government’s large security operation.

In Kirkuk the trend in attacks has mostly been downward with a few spikes. In January there were 28 attacks, but then 17 in February, 15 in March, and 13 in April before jumping to 35 in May when the IS offensive began. Afterward incidents went back down to 18 in June and 15 in July. There were a series of rocket and mortar attacks upon towns and security forces during the month, but otherwise most of the incidents were low level shootings and IEDs.

IS activities in Ninewa followed the same pattern as the rest of the country. There were 11 incidents in March, then the annual offensive began and attacks went to 19 in April, peaking at 25 in May then 10 in June and just 6 in July. 2 towns were attacked during the month, but the rest of the incidents were unnoteworthy.

Salahaddin followed a similar pattern. There were 8 attacks in April, then 20 in May, then 9 in June and 8 in July. There were two gun battles and an attack upon a checkpoint during the month, but overall things were back to before the summer offensive.

IS is slowly trying to pick up its operations in Baghdad. There were 4 incidents in March, 10 in April and May each, 13 in June and 15 in July. More importantly the insurgents were able to pull off 2 suicide bombings, while a third was arrested and a car bomb was dismantled. The suicide bombers were the reason why the governorate led the country in casualties during the month. That was the first mass casualty bombing in the capital since May, but before that the last major bombing was in May 2018. The car bomb was also found in the east, which hasn’t happened in months either. Almost all of the militants’ activities occur in the outer north, south and west.

Diyala is the only area where IS has been able to sustain itself. There were 28 incidents in July. Before that there were 27 in June, 35 in May, 30 in April and only 17 in March. The governorate is regularly the most violent place in the country. Confrontations with the security forces and attacks upon towns are common occurrences. IS never seized any territory there so it was the first place the group reverted back to an insurgency. That has given it the time to rebuild its cadres which today are active in every single rural area. It’s favorite target is the Khanaqin-Jalawla districts in the northeast, which the central government took over from the Kurds after their independence referendum. There are not enough security forces there and IS is taking full advantage of that.

Finally, there were two attacks that showed IS was getting adventurous. One was a sticky bomb on a vehicle in Karbala near Anbar province. There have been no IS attacks in the south since 2017. At the end of the month the insurgents also attacked a Kurdish checkpoint in southern Sulaymaniya by Diyala. It appears that this was pre-planned as IS started with gunfire on the Asayesh manning the post. Then when the Peshmerga arrived as reinforcements they were hit by an IED. IS then opened up with mortars as well. IS hasn’t attacked Kurdistan for years either. Both of these were outside the group’s usual areas of operation. These might be test cases to find vulnerabilities in the country’s defenses.

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province
Province
Jul 1-7
Jul 8-14
Jul 15-21
Jul 22-28
Jul 29-31
TOTALS
Anbar
3
-
-
-
2
5
Babil
1
1
1
-
-
3
Baghdad
2
4
5
3
1
15
Diyala
8
5
5
9
1
28
Karbala
-
-
-
1
-
1
Kirkuk
3
2
5
5
-
15
Ninewa
1
1
-
3
1
6
Salahaddin
2
1
1
2
2
8
Sulaymaniya
-
-
-
-
1
1
TOTALS
20
13
17
22
8
82

Casualties In Iraq By Province
Province
Jul 1-7
Jul 8-14
Jul 15-21
Jul 22-28
Jul 29-31
Anbar
21 (7K, 14W)
-
-
-
2 (2K)
Babil
4 (4W)
1 (1W)
1 (1K)
-
-
Baghdad
2 (2W)
3 (3K)
34 (9K, 25W)
2 (2K)
1 (1K)
Diyala
14 (3K, 11W)
9 (5K, 4W)
12 (1K, 11W)
4 (2K, 2W)
2 (2W)
Karbala
-
-
-
4 (1K, 3)

Kirkuk
-
3 (2K, 1W)
2 (2K)
14 (2K, 12W)
-
Ninewa
-
18 (18K)
-
6 (6K)
-
Salahaddin
-
7 (3K, 4W)
2 (1K, 1W)
4 (1K, 3W)
5 (5K)
Sulaymaniya
-
-
-
-
16 (5K, 11W)
TOTALS
50 (10K, 40W)
41 (31K, 10W)
51 (14K, 37W)
34 (14K, 20W)
26 (13K, 13W)

Islamic State Activity in Iraq 2018-19
Anbar
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
45
67
13
4
6
5
7
3
Jan 2019
6
4
1
-
2
1
1
1
Feb
10
11
4
1
1
4
-
-
Mar
2
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
Apr
1
8
1
-
-
1
-
1
May
3
3
-
-
1
-
-
2
Jun
7
2
4
-
1
-
-
-
Jul
4
-
-
1
-
-
-
-
2019
Totals
33
29
10
2
5
6
1
4

Diyala
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
219
198
47
43
5
13
25
3
1
Jan 2019
21
2
3
8
-
-
1
-
-
Feb
18
2
5
7
-
-
3
-
-
Mar
7
6
1
2
-
-
-
-
-
Apr
13
15
2
4
1
-
1
-
-
May
11
13
3
5
-
-
13
(9 Farms Burned)
-
-
Jun
15
8
2
4
-
1
-
1
-
Jul
7
12
2
4
-
-
2
-
-
2019
Totals
92
58
18
34
1
1
20
1
-

Kirkuk
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
172
182
39
18
10
14
29
9
6
Jan 2019
8
17
-
4
2
3
-
-
1
Feb
9
5
3
-
-
2
1
-
-
Mar
5
11
2
1
2
-
2
-
-
Apr
5
9
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
May
11
18
2
3
1
-
13
(13 Farms Burned)
-
-
Jun
5
10
1
2
-
-
-
-
-
Jul
2
10
-
-
-
1
2
-
-
2019
Totals
45
80
11
10
5
6
18
-
1

Ninewa
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
139
74
43
7
5
6
6
2
3
Jan 2019
6
-
-
-
1
-
-
-
-
Feb
8
3
2
2
-
-
1
-
1
Mar
6
1
3
-
-
-
1
-
1
Apr
6
6
1
-
1
2
2
-
-
May
8
8
1
-
1
2
6
(5 Farms Burned)
-
1
Jun
2
5
-
-
1
-
4
(4 Farms Burned)
-
-
Jul
2
2
-
-
1
1
2
-
-
2019
Totals
38
25
7
2
5
5
16
-
3

Salahaddin
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
110
102
41
18
1
16
4
9
5
Jan 2019
5
5
3
1
-
3
-
-
1
Feb
7
11
3
-
-
2
1
1
-
Mar
3
5
2
-
-
-
-
-
1
Apr
2
2
1
-
-
-
-
-
1
May
10
9
4
1
1
-
6
(5 Farms Burned)
-
-
Jun
4
3
2
-
1
-
-
-
-
Jul
3
6
2
1
-
-
-
-
-
2019
Totals
34
41
17
3
2
5
7
1
3
(Gun Battles, Attacks on Checkpoints, Attacks on Mukhtars, Attacks on Towns are all subsets of the total number of shootings and IEDs/Sticky Bombs reported)

Suicide-Car Bombs In Iraq 2018-19
Month
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Totals
Jan
7
(1- Diyala,
3 – Baghdad/Baghdad,
3 - Kirkuk)
6
(1- Anbar,
1 – Diyala,
1 – Kirkuk,
1 – Salahaddin,
2 - Babil)
13
Feb
4
(1 – Anbar/Ramadi
1 – Diyala
1 – Kirkuk
1 - Ninewa)
-
4
Mar
2
(1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk
1 - Salahaddin)
1
(1 – Kirkuk)
3
Apr
4
(1 - Salahaddin
3 – Anbar)
1
(1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk)
5
May
8
(1 – Diyala
1 - Salahaddin)
2 – Baghdad/1 - Baghdad
4 - Kirkuk)
-
8
Jun

1
(1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
1
Jul
1
(1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
1
(1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk)
2
Aug
1
(1 – Salahaddin)
2
(1 – Anbar,
1 – Kirkuk)
3
Sep
6
(1 – Ninewa)
2 – Anbar
3 – Salahaddin)
2
(1 – Kirkuk
1 – Salahaddin)
8
Oct
2
(1 – Anbar/Fallujah
1 – Salahaddin)
3
(1 – Anbar/Fallujah
1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk
1 - Ninewa)
5
Nov
-
3
(1 – Ninewa/Mosul
2 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
3
Dec
-
1
(1 – Ninewa)
1
Jan
1
(1 – Anbar)
3
(1 – Anbar
1 – Kirkuk
1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
4
Feb
1
(1 – Salahaddin)
1
(1 – Ninewa/Mosul)
2
Mar
-
1
(1 – Ninewa/Mosul)
1
Apr
-
2
(1 – Anbar
1 - Salahaddin)
2
May
1
(1 – Baghdad)
3
(2 – Anbar
1 – Ninewa)
4
Jun
1
(1 – Diyala)
-
1
Jul
2 (2 – Baghdad/Malif)
-
2

Security In Iraq 2018-19
Week
Security
Incidents
(Total/By IS)
Dead
(Total/By IS)
Wounded
(Total/By IS)
Jan 1-7
62/60
45
63
Jan 8-14
58/56
58/56
66/63
Jan 15-21
62/59
151
151
Jan 22-28
59/51
140/136
65/63
Jan 29-31
24
21
21
JAN 2018
265/
250 by IS
417/
409 by IS
(196 Violent Deaths)
366/
361 by IS
Feb 1-7
58/56
192/141
62/60
Feb 8-14
57
58
91
Feb 15-21
53/52
343
43
Feb 22-28
46/44
38/37
70/68
FEB
214/
209 by IS
631/
579 by IS
(215 Violent Deaths)
266/
262 by IS
Mar 1-7
68/64
115/108
79/77
Mar 8-14
52
75
59
Mar 15-21
64/59
165/119
98
Mar 22-28
77/64
210/87
61/60
Mar 29-31
19/18
26/25
34
MAR
280/
257 by IS
591/
414 by IS
(446 Violent Deaths)
331/
328 by IS
Apr 1-7
38/34
172/140
27/25
Apr 8-14
60/52
173/136
81/72
Apr 15-21
43/35
63/18
72/70
Apr 22-28
40/31
60/30
39/33
Apr 29-30
12/11
14/11
4
APR
193/
163 by IS
482/
335 by IS
(236 Violent Deaths)
223/
204 by IS
May 1-7
45/39
52/43
55/54
May 8-14
55/51
68/46
49
May 15-21
35/32
55/26
80/75
May 22-28
49/46
72/62
51/49
May 29-31
16/13
39/30
15
MAY
200/
181 by IS
286/
207 by IS
(261 Violent Deaths)
250/
242 by IS
Jun 1-7
50/44
96/87
29/28
Jun 8-14
67/59
107/47
88
Jun 15-21
40/35
82/28
19
Jun 22-28
45/44
53/38
62
Jun 29-30
17/15
21/16
14
JUN
219/
197 by IS
359/
216 by IS
(315 Violent Deaths)
212/
211 by IS
Jul 1-7
50/49
56/52
90
Jul 8-14
42/39
56/47
31
Jul 15-21
50/45
59/42
63
Jul 22-28
29/24
61/53
19/15
Jul 29-31
23/21
25/13
11
JUL
194/
178 by IS
257/
207 by IS
(212 Violent Deaths)
214/
210 by IS
Aug 1-7
43/39
49/45
30/29
Aug 8-14
43/42
38
44
Aug 15-21
38/35
24/21
40/37
Aug 22-28
35/31
25/19
61
Aug 29-31
27/24
68/30
43
AUG
186/
171 by IS
204/
153 by IS
(189 Violent Deaths)
218/
214 by IS
Sep 1-7
38
44
54
Sep 8-14
48/43
63/55
127
Sep 15-21
44/38
90/74
70
Sep 22-28
36/33
22/17
27/26
Sep 29-30
9/6
19/10
29/25
SEP
175/
158 by IS
237/
200 by IS
(179 Violent Deaths)
307/
302 by IS
Oct 1-7
54/49
85/25
92
Oct 8-14
43/41
161/152
41
Oct 15-21
54/50
87/72
35
Oct 22-28
24/23
24/20
53
Oct 29-31
23
10
24
OCT
198/
186 by IS
367/
279 by IS
(177 Violent Deaths)
245 by IS
Nov 1-7
32/31
75/69
36
Nov 8-14
39/31
111/63
19
Nov 15-21
30/27
51/43
29
Nov 22-28
26/21
35/25
30
Nov 29-30
9/8
4
27
NOV
136/
118 by IS
276/
204 by IS
(183 Violent Deaths_
141 by IS
Dec 1-7
22/15
21/8
11
Dec 8-14
22
15
22
Dec 15-21
23/21
23/16
17
Dec 22-28
30/28
24/18
37
Dec 29-31
15/14
225/220
4
DEC
112/
100 by IS
308/
277 by IS
(96 Violent Deaths)
91 by IS
Jan 1-7
32/31
17/10
24
Jan 8-14
32/30
97/94
53
Jan 15-21
22/18
17/11
16/14
Jan 22-28
27/22
36/17
31
Jan 29-31
12
7
6
JAN
114
139
130/128
Feb 1-7
29/28
76
30
Feb 8-14
24
26
18
Feb 15-21
40
112
12
Feb 22-28
25
36
70
FEB
118
250
130
Mar 1-7
13
22
45
Mar 8-14
19/18
75/10
37
Mar 15-21
12/11
66/37
21/11
Mar 22-28
13/12
8/5
1
Mar 29-31
6
8
7
MAR
61
147
101
Apr 1-7
20
22
13
Apr 8-14
41
28
42
Apr 15-21
17/16
9/8
26
Apr 22-28
19/18
45/10
15
Apr 29-30
2
1
4
APR
99
105
100
May 1-7
20/19
15
18
May 8-14
24
31
41
May 15-21
37/36
62
39
May 22-28
43
39
54
May 29-31
13
16
48
MAY
137/136
163
200
Jun 1-7
26
19
44
Jun 8-14
25/24
29
15
Jun 15-21
21/16
6
13/10
Jun 22-28
18
17
41
Jun 29-30
9
3
9
JUN
99/93
74
122/119
Jul 1-7
20
11
39
Jul 8-14
14
31
10
Jul 15-21
17
14
37
Jul 22-28
23
14
20
Jul 29-31
8
13
13
JUL
82
83
119

Violence By Province Jul, 2019
Province
Violence
Anbar
5 Incidents
10 Killed
2 Civilians
3 ISF
5 Hashd
13 Wounded
13 Hashd

4 Shootings
Babil
3 Incidents
1 Killed
1 ISF
5 Wounded
5 Hashd

1 Shooting
2 IEDs
Baghdad
15 Incidents
15 Killed
1 Hashd
14 Civilians
27 Wounded
27 Civilians

7 Shootings
2 IEDs
1 Motorcycle Bomb
2 Suicide Bombers
1 Grenade
1 Suicide Bomber Arrested
1 Car Bomb Dismantled
Diyala
28 Incidents
11 Killed
3 Civilians
3 ISF
5 Hashd
30 Wounded
3 Hashd
12 ISF
15 Civilians

7 Shootings
12 IEDs
6 Mortars
1 Rockets
1 Grenade
Karbala
1 Incident
1 Killed
1 Civilian
3 Wounded
3 Civilians

1 Sticky Bomb
Kirkuk
15 Incidents
6 Killed
6 Civilians
22 Wounded
10 ISF
12 Civilians

2 Shootings
10 IEDs
2 Mortars
5 Rockets
Ninewa
6 Incidents
24 Killed
24 Civilians

2 Shootings
1 IED
1 Sicky Bomb
Salahaddin
8 Incidents
10 Killed
2 ISF
3 Hashd
5 Civilians
8 Wounded
8 Civilians

3 Shootings
6 IEDs
1 Mortar
Sulaymaniya
1 Incident
5 Killed
1 Peshmerga
4 Asayesh
11 Wounded
4 Peshmerga
7 Asayesh

1 Shooing
1 IED
1 Mortar

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