Thursday, August 8, 2019

Iraq’s Oil Exports Hit Sustained Level

(Maritime Executive)

Iraq’s oil exports have reached a sustained level over the last three months. That’s likely because the country is cheating on its OPEC production quotas once again. At the same time, prices have settled as well since the start of the year.

Iraq has been exporting the same level of oil for the last three months. In July it averaged 3.566 million barrels a day, which was on line with the 3.52 million in June and 3.572 million in May. At the start of the year it exported 3.649 million in January, 3.621 million February, and then dropped to 3.377 million in March and 3.466 million in April as the country had to comply with a new OPEC production cut. Since April, its exports have risen because Iraq is not following its quota. Last year it was one of the biggest cheaters because it has always tried to boost its revenues since oil accounts as its main source of funds. So far its oil shipments have been up from an average of 3.498 million barrels a month in 2018 to 3.538 this year.

The problem for Iraq is that its prices and revenues have not been up. In July Iraqi crude sold for $61.15 per barrel. That was up from $60.58 in June, but down from the peak price of $67.41 during the year in April. For the year, Iraq’s petroleum has been going for $62.37 per barrel, which is down from $65.61 last year. That has translated to lower monthly income. In July Iraq made $6.761 billion. For the year it has averaged $6.676 billion a month that is down from $6.953 billion a month in 2018. The country needs to earn as much as possible each year because it is running a deficit. Officials say they need it for reconstruction after the war with the Islamic State, but that is not true. Every time oil prices go up the government passes a budget that greatly increases public spending especially on government salaries and pensions. That’s what the country needs its oil revenue for.

Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2014-2019
Month
Avg Export (Mil)
Avg Price
Earnings (Bil)
Jan 2014
2.228
$102.37
$7.073
Feb
2.799
$102.05
$7.9
Mar
2.396
$101.03
$7.507
Apr
2.51
$100.69
$7.582
May
2.58
$100.69
$8.077
Jun
2.423
$102.96
$7.47
Jul
2.442
$102.27
$7.8
Aug
2.375
$97.44
$7.172
Sep
2.542
$90.76
$7
Oct
2.461
$81.12
$6.19
Nov
2.51
$70.40
$5.238
Dec
2.94
$57
$5.195
2014 Totals
2.517
$92.39
$7.017
Jan 2015
2.535
$41.45
$3.258
Feb
2.597
$47.43
$3.449
Mar
2.980
$48.24
$3.449
Apr
3.077
$51.70
$4.8
May
3.145
$55.87
$5.447
Jun
3.187
$55.32
$5.289
Jul
3.105
$50.99
$4.908
Aug
3.079
$40.59
$3.925
Sep
3.052
$40.32
$3.725
Oct
2.703
$39.56
$3.29
Nov
3.363
$36.42
$3.66
Dec
3.216
$29.84
$2.92
2015 Totals
3.003
$44.81
$4.094
Jan 2016
3.285
$22.21
$2.262
Feb
3.224
$23
$2.249
Mar
3.287
$28.40
$2.894
Apr
3.363
$33.38
$3.368
May
3.2
$37.78
$3.748
Jun
3.175
$40.36
$3.845
Jul
3.203
$38.28
$3.802
Aug
3.229
$29.24
$3.928
Sep
3.276
$38.89
$3.822
Oct
3.384
-
$4.426
Nov
3.47
$40
$4.216
Dec
3.52
-
$5.074
2016 Totals
3.302
-
$3.625
Jan 2017
3.321
-
$5.002
Feb
3.270
-
$4.514
Mar
3.258
$47.18
$4.766
Apr
3.253
$47.27
$4.607
May
3.261
$47
$4.623
Jun
3.273
$42.07
$4.144
Jul
3.230
$43.80
$4.386
Aug
3.216
-
$4.608
Sep
3.24
-
$4.882
Oct
3.346
$52.59
$5.456
Nov
3.502
$59.19
$6.021
Dec
3.535
$59.35
$6.504
2017 Totals
3.309
-
$4.959
Jan 2018
3.490
$63.29
$6.847
Feb
3.426
$60.14
$5.770
Mar
3.453
$59.95
$6.418
Apr
3.340
$64.60
$6.502
May
3.489
$69.80
$7.551
Jun
3.521
$69.32
$7.323
Jul
3.544
$69.16
$7.532
Aug
3.583
$69.65
$7.735
Sep
3.56
$74.15
$7.919
Oct
3.478
$73.38
$7.908
Nov
3.377
$61.09
$6.195
Dec
3.726
$52.80
$6.234
2018 Totals
3.498
$65.61
$6.953
Jan 2019
3.649
$56.15
$6.367
Feb
3.621
$60.83
$6.179
Mar
3.377
$63.80
$6.709
Apr
3.466
$67.41
$7.021
May
3.572
$66.68
$7.329
Jun
3.52
$60.58
$6.372
Jul
3.566
$61.15
$6.761
2019 Totals
3.538
$62.37
$6.676

SOURCES

Kullab, Samya, “February production falls as OPEC cuts begin to bite,” Iraq Oil Report, 3/17/19

Lando, Ben, “Oil exports jump to more than 4 million barrels a day from Iraq,” Iraq Oil Report, 8/2/19

Malek, Miriam, “Iraq’s brighter oil future at odds with meeting OPEC quota,” Platts, 6/29/19

Rwanduzy, Mohammed, “Iraq’s oil revenues increase slightly in July despite low price on world market,” Rudaw, 8/1/19

Turak, Natasha, “Iraq could be the next ot break ranks with OPEC, analyst says,” CNBC, 12/4/18


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