Monday, December 2, 2019

Islamic State Waits Out The Protests In Iraq

(Shafaaq News)

With the demonstrations in Iraq entering their second month the Islamic State has been holding off on attacks. With the government threatened, there is no reason for the insurgents to provide distractions. That resulted in the lowest average in security incidents since 2003.


There were 55 incidents total reported in the media in November. Pro-Iran Hashd were likely behind 4 rocket attacks targeting a base where U.S. forces are at and the Green Zone in Baghdad leaving 51 by the Islamic State, the lowest monthly total since the U.S. invasion. That averaged out to only 1.7 incidents per day. That was down from 68 incidents in October and 119 in September. Another sign of the changed environment was that there were no car or suicide bombs during the entire month, likely the first time that has happened since 2003. Before the protests started it looked like the militants were increasing their operations, especially in the capital, but that now appears to be on hold. Each time there have been similar social unrest in the country, IS has held back.

Pro-Iran Hashd factions sent a message to the Americans to stay out of the protests by firing a series of rockets during November and the month before. A base in Ninewa, and the Green Zone were targeted four times total. There were two more such incidents in October. Groups backed by Tehran have routinely sent ordinance at the Green Zone because that’s where the U.S. Embassy is. With the demonstrations entering their second month, this was likely telling Washington to stay out of Iraq’s internal affairs.

Before the protests the Islamic State was making a concerted effort to move back into Baghdad. In September, they were finally able to land some IEDs inside the city itself. In November the group planted two motorcycle bombs in Shaab in the north and Baya in the south. It also attacked a group of soldiers in Tarmiya, and posted pictures of executing a policeman in Masra, both in the outer northern region of the province. While there were only 9 incidents total by IS in Baghdad during the month, this showed that the organization is still attempting to rebuild its networks in the capital and strike into its heart. That is very important, because if the group can’t infiltrate into Iraq’s cities it will eventually become irrelevant.

Diyala, Kirkuk, Ninewa, and Salahaddin are the insurgency’s main areas of operation. There were 13 incidents in Diyala, 11 in Kirkuk, 8 in Ninewa, and 7 in Salahaddin. In Diyala that included 1 gun battle, 1 attack upon a checkpoint, 2 kidnappings, and 2 attacks upon villages. More importantly four villages were emptied in the rural sections of the province due to IS attacks and threats. Even more were forced out in October. 5 Italian soldiers were hit by an IED outside of Kirkuk city, and three IEDs went off there at the end of the month leaving 16 wounded. One mukhtar was killed in Ninewa. In Salahaddin, an IED hit a joint Coalition-Peshmerga patrol that left 1 Coalition soldier and 4 Peshmerga wounded. There were also three shoot outs there as well. Diyala is the center for IS in the country. There the group is setting up camps and bases to rebuild its cadres in central and northeastern sections of the province. That’s the reason behind the emptying of villages. The same thing is happening on a smaller scale in southern Kirkuk. Ninewa and Salahaddin used to be major targets, but no longer as the insurgency is rebuilding. There are only occasional attacks in those two governorates as a result.

There was also a rare attack in southern Sulaymaniya by the border with Diyala. Mortar fire brought an Asayesh unit to investigate, which was then hit with sniper fire that killed 3, including a commander, and left 8 other wounded. IS forces likely came in from Diyala and set up this ambush to test the Kurdish defenses. That showed despite the dramatic decline in attacks overall IS was still looking to find new areas it could operate in.

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province
Province
Nov 1-7
Nov 8-14
Nov 15-21
Nov 22-28
Nov 29-30
Babil
-
-
1
-
-
Baghdad
2
1
2/1 Hashd
6/1 Hashd
1
Diyala
2
1
3
4
3
Kirkuk
-
2
5
2
2
Ninewa
1 Hashd
3
2
2
1
Salahaddin
1
2
1
3
-
Sulaymaniya
-
-
-
-
1
TOTAL
6/5
9
15/14
17/16
8/7

Casualties In Iraq By Province
Province
Nov 1-7
Nov 8-14
Nov 15-21
Nov 22-28
Nov 29-30
Babil
-
-
1 (1K)
-
-
Baghdad
2 (2K)
1 (1K)
1 (1K)
28 (12K, 16W)
-
Diyala
1 (1K)
10 (10W)
1 (1K)
17 (5K, 12W)
13 (13W)
Kirkuk
-
6 (1K, 5W)
7 (5K, 2W)
3 (2K, 1W)
17 (1K, 16W)
Ninewa
-
5 (5W)
2 (2K)
4 (3K, 1W)
2 (2K)
Salahaddin
2 (1K, 1W)
5 (5W)
1 (1K)
5 (2K, 3W)
-
Sulaymaniya
-
-
-
-
11 (3K, 8W)
TOTAL
5 (4K, 1W)
27 (2K, 25W)
13 (11K, 2W)
57 (24K, 33W)
43 (6K, 37W)

Islamic State Activity in Iraq 2018-19
Diyala
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
219
198
47
43
5
13
25
3
1
Jan 2019
21
2
3
8
-
-
1
-
-
Feb
18
2
5
7
-
-
3
-
-
Mar
7
6
1
2
-
-
-
-
-
Apr
13
15
2
4
1
-
1
-
-
May
11
13
3
5
-
-
13
(9 Farms Burned)
-
-
Jun
15
8
2
4
-
1
-
1
-
Jul
7
12
2
4
-
-
2
-
-
Aug
21
12
3
7
-
1
1
1
-
Sep
18
18
2
5
-
-
3
-
-
Oct
20
8
1
8

1
3


Nov
4
6
1
1

2
2
-
-
2019
Totals
155
102
25
55
1
5
29
2
-

Kirkuk
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
172
182
39
18
10
14
29
9
6
Jan 2019
8
17
-
4
2
3
-
-
1
Feb
9
5
3
-
-
2
1
-
-
Mar
5
11
2
1
2
-
2
-
-
Apr
5
9
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
May
11
18
2
3
1
-
13
(13 Farms Burned)
-
-
Jun
5
10
1
2
-
-
-
-
-
Jul
2
10
-
-
-
1
2
-
-
Aug
9
6
10
-
-
1
-
-
-
Sep
6
10
-
2
1
1
-
-
-
Oct
3
7

1





Nov
4
8
-
2
-
-
-
-
-
2019
Totals
67
111
21
15
6
8
18
-
1

Ninewa
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
139
74
43
7
5
6
6
2
3
Jan 2019
6
-
-
-
1
-
-
-
-
Feb
8
3
2
2
-
-
1
-
1
Mar
6
1
3
-
-
-
1
-
1
Apr
6
6
1
-
1
2
2
-
-
May
8
8
1
-
1
2
6
(5 Farms Burned)
-
1
Jun
2
5
-
-
1
-
4
(4 Farms Burned)
-
-
Jul
2
2
-
-
1
1
2
-
-
Aug
3
2
-
-
-
-
1
-
-
Sep
3
10
-
-
2
1
-
-
-
Oct
2
6
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Nov
3
3
-
-
1
-
-
-
-
2019
Totals
49
46
7
2
8
6
17
-
3

Salahaddin
Shootings
(Totals)
IEDs/
Sticky Bombs
(Totals)
Gun Battles
Attacks on Checkpoints
Attacks on Mukhtars/
Sheikhs
Kidnappings
Attacks on Towns
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
2018
Totals
110
102
41
18
1
16
4
9
5
Jan 2019
5
5
3
1
-
3
-
-
1
Feb
7
11
3
-
-
2
1
1
-
Mar
3
5
2
-
-
-
-
-
1
Apr
2
2
1
-
-
-
-
-
1
May
10
9
4
1
1
-
6
(5 Farms Burned)
-
-
Jun
4
3
2
-
1
-
-
-
-
Jul
3
6
2
1
-
-
-
-
-
Aug
5
1
1
-
-
1
1
-
1
Sep
6
3
4
1
-
-
-
-
-
Oct
5
3
2
1
-
-
-
-
-
Nov
4
3
3
-
-
-
-
-
-
2019
Totals
54
51
27
5
2
6
8
1
4

Suicide-Car Bombs In Iraq 2018-19
Month
Suicide Bombers
Car Bombs
Totals
Jan
7
(1- Diyala,
3 – Baghdad/Baghdad,
3 - Kirkuk)
6
(1- Anbar,
1 – Diyala,
1 – Kirkuk,
1 – Salahaddin,
2 - Babil)
13
Feb
4
(1 – Anbar/Ramadi
1 – Diyala
1 – Kirkuk
1 - Ninewa)
-
4
Mar
2
(1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk
1 - Salahaddin)
1
(1 – Kirkuk)
3
Apr
4
(1 - Salahaddin
3 – Anbar)
1
(1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk)
5
May
8
(1 – Diyala
1 - Salahaddin)
2 – Baghdad/1 - Baghdad
4 - Kirkuk)
-
8
Jun

1
(1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
1
Jul
1
(1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
1
(1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk)
2
Aug
1
(1 – Salahaddin)
2
(1 – Anbar,
1 – Kirkuk)
3
Sep
6
(1 – Ninewa)
2 – Anbar
3 – Salahaddin)
2
(1 – Kirkuk
1 – Salahaddin)
8
Oct
2
(1 – Anbar/Fallujah
1 – Salahaddin)
3
(1 – Anbar/Fallujah
1 – Kirkuk/Kirkuk
1 - Ninewa)
5
Nov
-
3
(1 – Ninewa/Mosul
2 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
3
Dec
-
1
(1 – Ninewa)
1
Jan
1
(1 – Anbar)
3
(1 – Anbar
1 – Kirkuk
1 – Salahaddin/Tikrit)
4
Feb
1
(1 – Salahaddin)
1
(1 – Ninewa/Mosul)
2
Mar
-
1
(1 – Ninewa/Mosul)
1
Apr
-
2
(1 – Anbar
1 - Salahaddin)
2
May
1
(1 – Baghdad)
3
(2 – Anbar
1 – Ninewa)
4
Jun
1
(1 – Diyala)
-
1
Jul
2 (2 – Baghdad/Malif)
-
2
Aug
1
(1 – Diyala)
1
(1 – Salahaddin)
2
Sep
-
1
(1 – Karbala)
1
Oct
-
1
(1 – Anbar)
1
Nov
-
-
-

Security In Iraq 2018-19
Week
Security
Incidents
(Total/By IS)
Dead
(Total/By IS)
Wounded
(Total/By IS)
Jan 1-7
62/60
45
63
Jan 8-14
58/56
58/56
66/63
Jan 15-21
62/59
151
151
Jan 22-28
59/51
140/136
65/63
Jan 29-31
24
21
21
JAN 2018
265/
250 by IS
417/
409 by IS
(196 Violent Deaths)
366/
361 by IS
Feb 1-7
58/56
192/141
62/60
Feb 8-14
57
58
91
Feb 15-21
53/52
343
43
Feb 22-28
46/44
38/37
70/68
FEB
214/
209 by IS
631/
579 by IS
(215 Violent Deaths)
266/
262 by IS
Mar 1-7
68/64
115/108
79/77
Mar 8-14
52
75
59
Mar 15-21
64/59
165/119
98
Mar 22-28
77/64
210/87
61/60
Mar 29-31
19/18
26/25
34
MAR
280/
257 by IS
591/
414 by IS
(446 Violent Deaths)
331/
328 by IS
Apr 1-7
38/34
172/140
27/25
Apr 8-14
60/52
173/136
81/72
Apr 15-21
43/35
63/18
72/70
Apr 22-28
40/31
60/30
39/33
Apr 29-30
12/11
14/11
4
APR
193/
163 by IS
482/
335 by IS
(236 Violent Deaths)
223/
204 by IS
May 1-7
45/39
52/43
55/54
May 8-14
55/51
68/46
49
May 15-21
35/32
55/26
80/75
May 22-28
49/46
72/62
51/49
May 29-31
16/13
39/30
15
MAY
200/
181 by IS
286/
207 by IS
(261 Violent Deaths)
250/
242 by IS
Jun 1-7
50/44
96/87
29/28
Jun 8-14
67/59
107/47
88
Jun 15-21
40/35
82/28
19
Jun 22-28
45/44
53/38
62
Jun 29-30
17/15
21/16
14
JUN
219/
197 by IS
359/
216 by IS
(315 Violent Deaths)
212/
211 by IS
Jul 1-7
50/49
56/52
90
Jul 8-14
42/39
56/47
31
Jul 15-21
50/45
59/42
63
Jul 22-28
29/24
61/53
19/15
Jul 29-31
23/21
25/13
11
JUL
194/
178 by IS
257/
207 by IS
(212 Violent Deaths)
214/
210 by IS
Aug 1-7
43/39
49/45
30/29
Aug 8-14
43/42
38
44
Aug 15-21
38/35
24/21
40/37
Aug 22-28
35/31
25/19
61
Aug 29-31
27/24
68/30
43
AUG
186/
171 by IS
204/
153 by IS
(189 Violent Deaths)
218/
214 by IS
Sep 1-7
38
44
54
Sep 8-14
48/43
63/55
127
Sep 15-21
44/38
90/74
70
Sep 22-28
36/33
22/17
27/26
Sep 29-30
9/6
19/10
29/25
SEP
175/
158 by IS
237/
200 by IS
(179 Violent Deaths)
307/
302 by IS
Oct 1-7
54/49
85/25
92
Oct 8-14
43/41
161/152
41
Oct 15-21
54/50
87/72
35
Oct 22-28
24/23
24/20
53
Oct 29-31
23
10
24
OCT
198/
186 by IS
367/
279 by IS
(177 Violent Deaths)
245 by IS
Nov 1-7
32/31
75/69
36
Nov 8-14
39/31
111/63
19
Nov 15-21
30/27
51/43
29
Nov 22-28
26/21
35/25
30
Nov 29-30
9/8
4
27
NOV
136/
118 by IS
276/
204 by IS
(183 Violent Deaths_
141 by IS
Dec 1-7
22/15
21/8
11
Dec 8-14
22
15
22
Dec 15-21
23/21
23/16
17
Dec 22-28
30/28
24/18
37
Dec 29-31
15/14
225/220
4
DEC
112/
100 by IS
308/
277 by IS
(96 Violent Deaths)
91 by IS
Jan 1-7
32/31
17/10
24
Jan 8-14
32/30
94/31
53
Jan 15-21
22/18
17/11
16/14
Jan 22-28
27/22
36/17
31
Jan 29-31
12
7
6
JAN
114
139
130/128
Feb 1-7
29/28
76/16
30
Feb 8-14
24
26
18
Feb 15-21
40
112/37
12
Feb 22-28
25
36
70
FEB
118
250/115
130
Mar 1-7
13
22
45
Mar 8-14
19/18
75/10
37
Mar 15-21
12/11
66/37
21/11
Mar 22-28
13/12
8/5
1
Mar 29-31
6
8
7
MAR
61
147
101
Apr 1-7
20
22
13
Apr 8-14
41
28
42
Apr 15-21
17/16
9/8
26
Apr 22-28
19/18
45/10
15
Apr 29-30
2
1
4
APR
99
105
100
May 1-7
20/19
15
18
May 8-14
24
31
41
May 15-21
37/36
62/25
39
May 22-28
43
39
54
May 29-31
13
16
48
MAY
137/136
163/125
200
Jun 1-7
26
19
44
Jun 8-14
25/24
29
15
Jun 15-21
21/16
6
13/10
Jun 22-28
18
17
41
Jun 29-30
9
3
9
JUN
99/93
74
122/119
Jul 1-7
20
11
39
Jul 8-14
14
31
10
Jul 15-21
17
14
37
Jul 22-28
23
14
20
Jul 29-31
8
13
13
JUL
82
83
119
Aug 1-7
27
14
31
Aug 8-14
18
13
13
Aug 15-21
20
33
15
Aug 22-28
27
24
72
Aug 29-31
11
19
10
AUG
104/103
103
141
Sep 1-7
39
39
38
Sep 8-14
30
35
43
Sep 15-21
23
27
26
Sep 22-28
24/23
15
20
Sep 29-30
7
6
4
SEP
123/119
122
131
Oct 1-7
3
1
2
Oct 8-14
14
25
17
Oct 15-21
19
29
13
Oct 22-28
22/21
33
10
Oct 29-31
12/11
4
11
Oct
70/68
92
53
Nov 1-7
6/5
4
1
Nov 8-14
9
2
25
Nov 15-21
15/14
11
2
Nov 22-28
17/16
24
33
Nov 29-30
8/7
6
37
Nov
55/51
47
98

Violence By Province Nov, 2019
Province
Violence
Babil
2 Incidents
1 Killed
1 Civilian

1 Shooting
1 Sticky Bomb
Baghdad
12/9 Incidents
16 Killed
5 ISF
11 Civilians
16 Wounded
5 ISF
11 Civilians

6 Shootings
1 IED
2 Motorcycle Bombs
3 Rockets
Diyala
13 Incidents
7 Killed
1 Hashd
3 Civilians
3 ISF
35 Wounded
11 ISF
24 Civilians

4 Shootings
5 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Mortar
Kirkuk
11 Incidents
9 Killed
2 Civilians
7 ISF
24 Wounded
2 ISF
5 Italian Soldiers
17 Civilians

4 Shootings
8 IEDs
Ninewa
9/8 Incidents
7 Killed
1 ISF
1 Hashd
5 Civilians
6 Wounded
1 ISF
5 Civilians

3 Shootings
3 IEDs
2 Rockets
Salahaddin
7 Incidents
4 Killed
1 Civilian
1 ISF
2 Hashd
9 Wounded
1 Civilian
1 Coalition Soldier
3 Hashd
4 Peshmerga

4 Shootings
3 IEDs
Sulaymaniya
1 Incident
3 Killed
3 Asayesh
8 Wounded
8 Asayesh

1 Shooting
1 Mortar

SOURCES

Bas News, "Bomb Blast Wounds Five Peshmerga, Coalition Troops Near Tuz Khurmatu," 11/10/19
- "IS Abducts Two Kurdish Farmers in Qara Tapa," 11/5/19
- "IS Attacks Hashd al-Shaabi near Khanaqin," 11/21/19
- "Three Bomb Blasts in Kirkuk Leave 16 Civilians Wounded," 11/30/19

D'Emilio, Frances, "5 Italian soldiers wounded by roadside explosion in Iraq," Associated Press, 11/10/19

eKurd, "Islamic State attack kills three security Asayish members in Iraqi Kurdistan," 11/30/19

Iraq Newspaper, "ISIS announces the execution of policeman Firas Ahmed and two others north of Baghdad," 11/25/19

Iraqi National News Agency, "The 88th Brigade of the crowd thwarted an ISIS infiltration attempt north of Salahaddin," 11/10/19

Al Maalomah, "Rocket shell landed on US Makhmour base," 11/2/19

Al Masalah, "ISIS strikes in Sulaymaniya and casualties during armed confrontations," 11/29/19

NINA, "A Katyusha Rocket Land In The Vicinity Of The Green Zone, Causing No Casualties," 11/29/19
- "A Member Of The Popular Mobilization Forces Killed, Northeast Of Baquba," 11/21/19
- "Mortar Shells Fall On An Area Between Diyala And Sulaimaniya," 11/29/19
- "The Number Of Victims Of ISIS Attack On Al-Islah Village Has Risen To 9 People, Including An Officer, Soldiers And Civilians," 11/24/19
- "Security Sources Announces The Nature Of Targeting The Green Zone," 11/17/19
- "Unknown gunmen assassinate a mayor/Mukhtar/ in the right side of Mosul," 11/18/19
- “Villages On The Outskirts Of Khanaqin Are Experiencing A Wave Of Displacement For Dozens Of Families,” 11/3/19

Reuters, "Six killed in three separate Baghdad explosions: sources," 11/26/19

Rwanduzy, Mohammed, "Three Iraqi soldiers, civilian killed in ISIS attack in Jalawla: Asayesh major," Rudaw, 11/24/19

Shafaaq News, "Security authorities announce a rocket landed in the Tigris River in central Baghdad,' 11/22/19

Sotaliraq, "ISIS attack on security forces in Salahaddin," 11/25/19
- "Seven soldiers killed and wounded in an ISIS attack north of Baghdad," 11/28/19

Al Sumaria, "A member of the Peace Brigades killed and three others wounded in clashes with IS in Samarra Island," 11/22/19

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