Iraq Forces Make Major Advances In Baiji Area

After months of frustration Iraq’s joint forces were able to retake the Baiji refinery and neighboring Siniya, which was an Islamic State stronghold in Salahaddin. Several thousand men were deployed in the operation overwhelming the insurgent defenses, and Iran was said to have played a role in the planning. In Anbar the news was not as good as the government was still stuck clearing many of the same areas. In fact, the two might be related as the United States insisted that many Hashd units withdraw from Ramadi to allow the Iraqi Security Forces to take the lead. Those forces then went to Baiji.

There were 145 security incidents reported in the press from October 8-14, 2015. That was up from 105 the week before, which was the fewest number of any full week of the year. Baghdad was the most violence with 58 attacks, followed by 35 in Salahaddin, 19 in Anbar, 9 in Ninewa, 8 in Diyala, 6 in Babil, 4 in Kirkuk, 2 in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and one each in Basra, Maysan and Qadisiyah.

Casualties have remained relatively stable the last several months. During the second week of October there were 254 deaths and 388 injuries in the press. The dead were made up of 2 Sahwa, 4 Peshmerga, 11 Hashd, 15 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 35 Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) fighters, and 187 civilians. The injured included 1 Peshmerga, 3 Sahwa, 19 Hashd, 57 ISF, and 308 civilians. Casualties are no longer a good measure of security in Iraq however, because the government is actively suppressing the numbers. For example, despite constant fighting in Anbar and Salahaddin with the on going security operations there officials rarely mention any losses.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	189	466	464
Jan 8-14	172	733	518
Jan 15-21	189	403	528
Jan 22-28	195	492	899
Jan 29-31	91	306	568
JAN	836	2,400	2,977
Feb 1-7	155	408	688
Feb 8-14	177	443	566
Feb 15-21	169	592	383
Feb 22-28	171	391	705
FEB	672	1,834	2,342
Mar 1-7	176	373	595
Mar 8-14	137	398	656
Mar 15-21	146	1,304	505
Mar 22-28	174	273	406
Mar 29-31	72	205	219
MAR	705	2,553 + 4	2,381 + 150
Apr 1-7	127	218	422
Apr 8-14	137	676	542
Apr 15-21	172	729	717
Apr 22-28	163	497	483
Apr 29-30	50	162 + 7	182 + 299
APR	649	2,282	2,346
May 1-7	154	627	450
May 8-14	154	420	549
May 15-21	124	963	387
May 22-28	108	341 + 1,499	348
May 29-31	38	66	164 + 646
MAY	578	2,417 + 1,499	1,898 + 646
Jun 1-7	132	431	476
Jun 8-14	126	522 + 405	394
Jun 15-21	141	365	373
Jun 22-28	162	306	474
Jun 29-30	61	122	189
JUN	622	1,804	2,012
Jul 1-7	161	435	719
Jul 8-14	140	384	570
Jul 15-21	109	359	597 + 4,024
Jul 22-28	145	527	590
Jul 29-31	53	453 + 8	603
JUL	608	2,166	3,079 + 4,024
Aug 1-7	154	650 + 760	298
Aug 8-14	133	756	640
Aug 15-21	135	345	354
Aug 22-28	136	342	296
Aug 29-31	59	112 + 5	169
AUG	617	2,205 + 760	1,757
Sep 1-7	139	285	352
Sep 8-14	144	368	394
Sep 15-21	123	323	488
Sep 22-28	128	190	258
Sep 29-30	39	106 + 19	147 + 8
SEP	573	1,291 + 314	1,647 + 3,003
Oct 1-7	105	291	398
Oct 8-14	145	254	388

Security by Province Oct 2015

Provinces	Oct 1-7	Oct 8-14
Anbar	12 Incidents 72 Killed: 2 ISF, 70 Civilians 3 Wounded: 3 ISF 4 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber Killed 1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed 10 Car Bombs Destroyed	19 Incidents 26 Killed: 1 Hashd, 3 ISF, 22 Civilians 28 Wounded: 3 Hashd, 12 Civilians, 13 ISF 5 Shooings 4 IEDs 2 Mortars 1 Artillery 16 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 10 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	7 Incidents 4 Killed: 1 ISF, 3 Civilians 26 Wounded: 4 ISF, 22 Civilians 5 IEDs	6 Incidents 7 Killed: 2 ISF, 5 Civilians 36 Wounded: 5 ISF, 31 Civilians 1 Shooting 4 IEDs 1 Car Bomb 1 Grenade
Baghdad	48 Incidents 94 Killed: 4 ISF, 90 Civilians 241 Wounded: 13 ISF, 228 Civilians 13 Shootings 24 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs 24 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs 2 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Car Bombs 1 Suicide Bomber Killed	58 Incidents 69 Killed: 1 ISF, 1 Hashd, 2 Sahwa, 65 Civilians 196 Wounded: 3 Hashd, 3 Sahwa, 5 ISF, 185 Civilians 16 Shootings 28 IEDs 8 Sticky Bombs 1 Grenade 1 Stabbing 1 Rockets
Basra	3 Incidents 11 Killed: 11 Civilians 30 Wounded: 30 Civilians 1 Shooting 1 Sound Bomb 1 Car Bomb	1 Incident 1 Sticky Bomb
Diyala	4 Incidents 40 Killed: 40 Civilians 75 Wounded: 75 Civilians 1 Shooting 1 Car Bomb 1 Car Bomb Destroyed	8 Incidents 38 Killed: 1 ISF, 1 Hashd, 36 Civilians 58 Wounded: 58 Civilians 2 IEDs 4 Mortars 1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Kirkuk	13 Incidents 10 Killed: 10 Civilians 16 Wounded: 2 Peshmerga, 14 Civilians 5 Shootings 4 IEDs 2 Rockets	4 Incidents 12 Killed: 2 ISF, 10 Civilians 1 Shooting 1 IED
KRG	-	2 Incidents 35 Killed: 35 PKK 2 Turkish Air Strikes
Maysan	-	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting
Ninewa	6 Incidents 49 Killed: 7 Peshmerga, 42 Civilians 3 Shootings	9 Incidents 39 Killed: 4 Peshmerga, 35 Civilians 1 Wounded: 1 Peshmerga 6 Shootings
Qadisiyah	-	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Sticky Bomb
Salahaddin	12 Incidents 11 Killed: 1 ISF, 10 Civilians 7 Wounded: 1 Civilian, 6 ISF 7 Shootings 2 IEDs 1 Mortar	35 Incidents 26 Killed: 6 ISF, 8 Hashd, 12 Civilians 69 Wounded: 13 Hashd, 22 Civilians, 34 ISF 10 Shootings 11 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 5 Suicide Car Bombs 11 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 7 Car Bombs Destroyed

A new push on Ramadi was recently begun, but almost all of the reported progress were of areas that the joint forces had gone through before. On the positive side, there was more movement into northern Ramadi. That was supported by U.S. air strikes and even artillery from the nearby Habaniya base. By October 10 there were reports that the Anbar Operations Command and government center were just within reach, which is near the center of the city. Sufiya was also reportedly cleared. After that however there was another push into Albu Faraj and it was declared cleared for the second time this month. There were also moves into Albu Gleb for the second time, the Tamim neighborhood of Ramadi for the fourth time, and Zankura for the third time. According to two reports, the U.S. pressured the Iraqi authorities to have some Hashd units withdraw from the offensive so that the ISF and local tribal fighters could take over. That would fit in with continued statements from Obama administration officials and military officers that they want a combined ISF-Sunni force to be the ones to liberate Anbar that might be more acceptable to the population. Many of the Hashd asked to leave were also pro-Iranian so the rivalry between Washington and Tehran also played a role. This poses a dilemma however as one of the major drawbacks of the current push is a lack of manpower. That’s the reason why the government can’t hold these towns outside of Ramadi and Fallujah and have to continually go through them again and again. The Hashd withdrawal will only make this situation worse.

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History Security Operations In Anbar Oct 8-14, 2015

Albu Faraj	Albu Gleb	Fallujah	Ramadi
Aug 20 operation	Oct 4 operation	Oct 9 Fallujah Univ operation	Jul 26 Tamim operation
Sep 13 operation	Oct 7 cleared		Jul 30 Tamim cleared
Oct 4 east cleared	Oct 8 operation		Sep 18 Tamim operation
Oct 5 Albu Faraj bridge operation			Oct 8 Tamim operation
Oct 6 cleared			Oct 9 Ceramics factory & traffic police station cleared
Oct 8 road cleared			Oct 10 Anbar Ops Cmd & Government Center attacked
Oct 13 operation
Oct 14 cleared

Rashad	Saqlawiya	Sufiya	Thar Thar	Zankura
Jul 16 cleared	Jul 15 Mahamd to Saqlawiya cleared	Aug 1 operation	Sep 19 cleared	July 22 Zankura Bridge cleared
Jul 27 cleared	Jul 15 residential area cleared	Oct 9 cleared	Sep 26 Thar Thar to Jeraishi cleared	Aug 22 cleared
Jul 29 operation	Jul 19 cleared		Oct 9 northeast of Lake Thar Thar operation	Oct 3 operation
Sep 11 operation	Jul 20 Saqlawiya road cleared			Oct 7 cleared
Oct 11 cleared	Jul 21 Technical Inst cleared			Oct 10 operation
	Jul 23 residential area cleared
	Jul 25 operation
	Jul 29 operation
	Aug 4 mostly cleared
	Aug 26 residential are operation
	Sep 3 residential are cleared
	Oct 12 residential area op
	Oct 13 Lakes village cleared

IS operations in Babil have been at a very low level since it lost its base in Jurf al-Sakhr at the end of 2014. During the week however a car bomb went off in Mahmudiya that killed 3 and wounded 17.

That compared to Baghdad that got a rare break from Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDs). Instead there were 8 sticky bombs, 16 shootings, and 28 IEDs that caused the majority of the 69 killed and 196 wounded from October 8-14. By district, the east remained the main target of IS with 16 incidents, followed by 14 in the South and 14 in the North, 7 in the west, 6 in the center and one in an unknown location. In the east not all of the violence was due to the Islamic State. 4 bodies were dumped in the area for example that were probably the work of vigilantes or Hashd related groups. There were also two shootings and a grenade tossed at a house that could have been done by anyone, and a kidnapping that was committed by a gang. On the other hand, there were five IEDs on businesses that showed the work of the insurgents. The vast majority of incidents across the province however look to be the work of IS.

Violence In Baghdad Oct 8-14, 2015

Center: 6 - 3 Sticky Bombs, 3 IEDs

East: 13 – 1 Kidnapping, 1 Grenade, 1 Sticky Bomb, 4 IEDs, 6 Shootings

Outer East: 3 – 1 Shooting, 2 IEDs

North: 8 – 1 Kidnapping, 1 Stabbing, 1 IED, 2 Sticky Bombs, 3 Shootings

Outer North: 6 – 1 Kidnapping, 1 Shooting, 4 IEDs

South: 6 – 1 Shooting, 5 IEDs

Outer South: 8 – 1 Kidnapping, 1 Sticky Bomb, 3 Shootings, 4 IEDs

West: 5 – 1 Rockets, 1 Sticky Bomb, 3 IEDs

Outer West: 2 – 2 IEDs

Unknown: 1 – 1 Shooting

Turkey carried out another series of air strikes upon the Kurdistan Regional Government during the week. Ankara reported that those bombings led to the death of 35 PKK fighters

The Islamic State continued with its executions in Ninewa. 38 people feel victim to the Islamists during the week in Mosul and Qayarah. That included 3 captured Peshmerga, a former candidate for the Mutahidun list, and two local mayors.

The government’s forces finally had a major breakthrough in the Baiji district. Starting on October 12 a major offensive was launched in that area with a reported 13,000 fighters. Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force commander General Qasim Suleimani was reportedly involved in the planning of the operation, and Badr head Haid Ameri was said to be in charge. According to Al Mada the impetus for the new drive was due to elements of the Hashd being frustrated at being excluded from Ramadi by the Americans. The large attacking force was able to quickly overcome IS’s defenses and take the refinery and Siniya, which was an insurgent stronghold, and had been contested for months. Siniya for example, was said to have been freed five times before. Taking the town would be a real victory, because it’s the surrounding areas like those that continue to threaten Baiji and the refinery. Likewise sections of the huge Baiji facility had switched hands for more than a year. In May IS destroyed most of the refinery after it took Ramadi making it useless. The damage is so severe that it may never be repaired. That’s the irony of the situation because Baiji holds no strategic significance anymore. In fact, IS has consistently used it to draw away forces from Anbar where its main focus has been. Some mention that Baiji is important to move on Mosul, but that is months away, and the joint forces could have surrounded the area and taken it whenever Ninewa was in the cards. The real test now is whether the joint forces can hold the district, which is predicated upon clearing out the towns like Siniya, which the joint forces appear to be doing. That will determine the ultimate fate of the area.

Finally, IS continued with its car bomb campaign, which began in July. During the second week of October there were a total of 51 VBIEDs compared to 18 the week before. Of those 51, only 6 hit their targets, while the other 45 were destroyed. Most of these car bombs are neutralized by anti-tank missiles before they reach their targets, but air strikes have also been helpful. Anbar had the most VBIEDs with 26. The Baiji offensive drew 23 car bombs. There was also the car bombing in Babil mentioned before, and another defused in Diyala. These attacks will likely remain at this pace for the next several months.

Car Bombs In Iraq, October 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Oct 1
Oct 2
Oct 3	Hurriya & Kadhimiya x2, Baghdad Ramadi & Rashad, Anbar – 7 destroyed	29	74
Oct 4	Subhait, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Oct 5	Husseiniya, Baghdad Zubayr, Basra Khalis, Diyala Bawih, Diyala – 1 destroyed	63	124
Oct 6
Oct 7	Ramadi, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Totals	6 – 12 Destroyed	92	198
Oct 8
Oct 9	Garma, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Oct 10	Tarmiya, Salahaddin Husaiba, north of Ramadi & Thar Thar, Anbar – 15 destroyed	3	10
Oct 11	Albu Jilab, Anbar Univ, Ramadi, Anbar – 8 destroyed Baquba, Diyala – 1 destroyed
Oct 12	Mahmudiya, Babil Baiji x4, Salahaddin North of Ramadi, Anbar – 1 destroyed	3	30
Oct 13	Baiji & Siniya, Salahaddin – 8 destroyed
Oct 14	West of Baiji & Siniya, Salahaddin – 10 destroyed
Totals	6 – 45 Destroyed	6	40

SOURCES

AIN, "Daash frustrated and destruction of 12 car bombs in Anbar," 10/11/15

Alsumaria, "Abrams tanks destroyed seven car bombs by Daash and progressing into west Baiji, 10/14/15

- "Special Forces and popular crowd arriving at entrance west Baiji," 10/14/15

Al Mada, "Combined forces of the government close to clearing the government complex in the center of Ramadi," 10/10/15,

- "Foiled ten Daash suicide car bombs north of Ramadi," 10/10/15

- "Killing and wounding 13 people including soldiers in explosion of a suicide car bomb attack north of Baghdad," 10/10/15

- "Mahmudiya bombing toll rises to 20 dead and wounded," 10/12/15

Al Masalah, "80 terrorists killed in military operations," 10/9/15

Naji, Jamal and Van Heuvelen, Ben, "Revived security forces advance on Ramadi," Iraqi Oil Report, 10/10/15,

New Sabah, “13 thousand fighters join the security forces in Baiji in preparation for the final battle of liberation,” 10/12/15

- "Security file," 10/11/15

- "Security file," 10/12/15

NINA, "/17/ elements of Daash killed, and 6 car bombs detonated in Baiji," 10/13/15

- "Federal Police And PDF Advancing Toward Siniah In Baiji To Free It," 10/13/15

Al Rayy, "Bombing a car bomb and killing 8 terrorists in the northern axis," 10/12/15

Shafaq News, "Killed dozens of terrorists as security forces continue their advance against their strongholds in operations," 10/10/15

- “Report: Soleimani supervised Baiji battles and then left to Syria,” 10/15/15

Sotaliraq, "Fahadawi: security forces less than 2 km from the headquarters of the Anbar Operations Command," 10/10/15,

- “The popular crowd are busy fighting in Baiji and stationed near Fallujah after its removal from the liberation of Ramadi,” 10/10/15

- "Security forces repel three suicide attacks by Daash in Ramadi," 10/11/15

Xinhua, "49 PKK rebels killed in Turkey, Iraq," 10/11/15