Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is
currently facing a growing political and economic crisis. Protests started
there at the end of the summer over public employees not being paid, and then
Regional President Massoud Barzani refused to step down from office when his
term expired in August. These two issues converged in October in a series of
violent demonstrations which resulted in Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)
offices being sacked and burned, crowds being dispersed by force, and the KDP
unilaterally declaring the Gorran (Change) Party expelled from the government
in what some called a political coup. To help explain these events is journalist
and co-founder of Pasewan.com Kamal
Chomani. Chomani can be followed on Twitter @KamalChomani.
1. The
current crisis in the KRG began with a series of protests in Sulaymaniya
province over public workers such as teachers not being paid. That governorate
has seen a series of demonstrations over the last few years, but hardly any
ever occur in Dohuk or Irbil. What’s the cause of that difference?
There are different
reasons why protests can be easily organized in Slemani against corruption and
undemocratic rule of the KRG. First of all, Slemani has been the center of
Kurdish uprisings during the history of Kurdish nationalism in the 20th
century. Ever since, Slemani has seen different uprisings, demonstrations and
protests against the former Iraqi regimes, including the most brutal regime,
Saddam Hussein. It is not a surprise that even in 1991 the Kurdistan Uprising
that led to establishing the Kurdistan Region started in Slemani. If not for Slemani,
the Kurdistan Region would not have been liberated so easily when they started
attacking Saddam’s regime, then their morale would have been defeated in every
part of Kurdistan. Slemani has been a political, cultural and historical city
since the beginning of the 19th century.
In Kurdish modern
history, or let’s say after 1996 when Erbil was controlled by the KDP with the
help of Saddam Hussein, Slemani enjoyed a more liberal reign as compare to the
KDP. Like it or not, the PUK has been different from the KDP from its
foundation as the PUK was an umbrella for different political ideologies,
Maoists, socialists, Marxist-Leninists and ordinary nationalists. Slemani has
been a stronghold province of the PUK after the fall of the Aylul revolution,
led by Mullah Mustafa Barzani.
The PUK dynamics have affected
Slemani, and vice versa. After 1996 Slemani became the PUK zone, and Erbil
& Duhok the KDP zone, this divided Kurdistan into an active Slemani and
somehow passive KDP zone in terms of civil society and free media. In 2000, the
first Kurdish independent free media appeared in Slemani, following Hawlati,
then other media outlets appeared. Hitherto, Erbil has never experienced a
successful free media outlet, whereas Slemani has enjoyed free media outlets
since 2000. After the fall of Saddam, again, Slemani experienced golden days of
radical protests in the whole area that resulted in a student movement and
civil rights quasi violent movements.
The PUK reform wing
which eventually split from the party and announced the Gorran Movement were
active enough to prevent the PUK from being a totalitarian party. Despite the
fact the PUK’s leader has always been Jalal Talabani, some leaders questioned
his powers in 2006. That would never happen in the KDP. The differences in the reform
wing of the Talabani party led to a split in 2009 that eventually led to Gorran
appearing. With the foundation of Gorran, the Kurdistan Region stepped into a
new era, the era of dreaming about a democracy. All these developments have
happened in Slemani, but in the KDP zone nothing was developing, let alone with
the iron fist of the KDP facing political dissent.
2. The
other issue that was going on in the region was the presidency of Massoud
Barzani whose term ended in August, but who remains in office. The Patriotic
Union of Kurdistan (PUK), Gorran (Change), the Kurdistan Islamic Union and the
Kurdistan Islamic Group offered a number of proposals to limit the president’s
powers in return for acquiescing to Barzani remaining in office, but the KDP
was adamant that it wanted to maintain the status quo. Given the current
situation are those parties going to have to give up on their reforms and just
think about the next Kurdish elections in 2017? And more importantly will those
elections even offer the chance to change the KRG’s political system?
The KDP doesn’t understand that its power has
been limited and people are fed up with the system. The PUK has successfully
diverted media and people’s attention from them even though they are a part of
corruption and no different from the KDP with regards to their monopolistic
history and culture. If elections were held and the PUK & Gorran joined in
a united fraction, then changes in the KRG’s political system would happen, but
if the KDP remains the number one party, then elections may not bring any hope,
and people already know what’s going to happen.
This time, the people are on the streets because their economic
situation is terrible. More than 50% of employees now are under the poverty
threshold as they are not paid regularly. An ordinary employee gets less than $500USD
whereas house rent is more than $300USD in the center of cities. There are no
jobs in the KRG. Recently the Higher Electoral Commission announced 435 jobs, and
more than 100,000 applicants applied for the job. Every year thousands of
students are graduating without having any jobs. The financial crisis has made
more than 500,000 workers jobless. In the oil sector, more than 2500 people
have lost their jobs. And there's no reforms in the horizon. Nechirvan Barzani
recently disappointed people when he said the government doesn’t have any
reform plans. Corruption is at its peak. According to the latest research compiled by the
[international] non-governmental organization Transparency International Iraq
enjoys the rank of 170 in the list of most corrupt countries. If Iraq is one of
the most corrupt countries in the world, then the KRG is even more corrupt as
Iraq still has institution, but we lack any national institutions. To give an
example, Iraq’s oil sector is managed by the government, but here [in the KRG
it] is managed by the KDP, and within the KDP mostly by Nechirvan Barzani the
current PM. In Iraq, SOMO [State Organization for Marketing Oil] announces
every single dollar that Iraq gains from oil sales, but in the KRG even though
almost 900,000 barrels per day are exported, even Finance Minsiter Rebaz Hamlan
from the Gorran Movement is not aware of the revenues, and there's no
institutions for managing oil revenues apart from Ashti Hawrami, the Natural
Resources minister.
3. The
KDP immediately blamed Gorran for the attacks upon its headquarters in
Sulaymaniya province, banned its members from entering Irbil the regional
capital, and then unilaterally dismissed its ministers from the government.
Some called this a coup. Even if this crisis is eventually averted through some
type of deal what will be the lasting effects upon the relations between the
Kurdish ruling parties?
The main issue in the Kurdistan Region now is the
Presidency issue which there are two fronts. One is led by the KDP that refutes
any projects apart from maintaining Masoud Barzani for another two years, a
fully presidential system and does not accept any radical reforms. On the other
front, there’s the PUK, Gorran, Yekgirtu and Komall. After the denial of the
Speaker entry to the capital city, there was a shock within those four parties
as they were not as united as before. I believe the four parties will insist on
their demands, which the most important one is to amend the Presidency law that
the KDP has been standing against totally. I believe the KDP and Gorran won’t
easily work together as the KDP not only refutes Gorran’s demands now, but has
more demands [of its own]. The most difficult KDP demand is that they do not
accept the Speaker. We have already reached a deadlock. The US and UK must put
pressures on all the sides, in particular the KDP, otherwise they won’t reach a
consensus. And if they don’t, then civil unrest may resume again as there’ll be
no chance for Gorran to manifest itself apart from using protests as a tool.
All in all, I do believe the current cabinet
cannot continue, therefore; there should be a caretaker government for less
than 6 months and during this 6 months, general elections must be held.
4. The
KDP’s main backer is Turkey. The PUK is supported by Iran, and the U.S. has
good relations with both. Can these outside powers play a positive role in
trying to resolve this crisis, will they stay on the sidelines or even play
spoilers?
Iran and Turkey want the current status quo to
remain, but the US seems to want to see radical reforms, in particular with
regard to corruption. But the problem with the US is that still they use the
old political approach which is stability before democracy, but Kurdistan is
different from other parts GCC countries. The US and international community
must understand that in Kurdistan stability won’t be achieved if there is no
democracy.
Iran has recently told PM Barzani to visit PM
Al-Abbadi to resolve the problems with Baghdad. Iran does not want to see any
changes in the old guardians of the system. For Turkey, too, they want the status
quo to remain as most of the Turkish companies are working in the KDP zone and
have shares with the KDP top leaders. For Turkey it is important Nechirvan
Barzani remain. But Turkey cannot do anything until 1st November,
then we’ll see if Erdogan’s AKP can win a major victory or not. The problem
with these forces is each of them wants stability not democracy. Democracy has
never been a problem for Iran.
5.
Finally, what does the situation say about the development of Kurdistan’s
institutions and rule of law?
After 2003, the KRG, in particular Nechirvan
Barzani started local and international campaigns, spending millions of dollars
in international media, academia and think-tanks so as to propagate “the other
Iraq.” But now things have turned. Whereas the Prime Minister Al-Abbadi is
working to carry out radical reforms and fired some corrupt officials, the Prime
Minister Nechirvan Barzani and his KDP is firing those who had reform plans
within the KRG. The KRG at the moment is under no legal rules. The presidency
is illegal, parliament can’t hold any sessions and the government is off.
Let me explain the political situation more as
there might be some people that yet do not know what’s going on. The political crises in Iraqi
Kurdistan has always been there but the political leadership has always been
able to cover passing crises with new crises. They have never been able to
settle the political crises and address the demands of the public, opposition
parties and media.
The recent political crisis is
the results of the 24 years of authoritarian, corrupt and undemocratic rule of
the two ruling parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by the illegal
president Masoud Barzani, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) led by
ailing former Iraqi President Jalal Talabani. After the 1991 Kurdish Uprising,
the two ruling parties were not able to form a united, prosperous,
democratic and accountable government and they soon started a civil war. After
2003, even though the KRG united practically the KRG has always been
two-administrations, in particular with regard to the security forces and
Peshmerge. The two ruling parties have kept their militia forces and
monopolized every part of business and government. In 2009 an opposition party
emerged, but their demands were not met. That led to civil unrest in February
2011. Even though people protested for more than 60 days, and Parliament issued
a statement that was voted on by the whole Parliament, which included 17 points
of the people's demands, none of the demands were ever addressed. After the 2013
elections, opposition parties joined the government in the hopes that some
changes would happen, but when the Presidency issue came on the table, the KDP
clearly revealed its true face that it did not accept any changes in the
political and administrative systems. Masoud Barzani's term was illegally
extended in June 30, 2013 for two years. His two extended years expired on
August 19, 2015. The Gorran Movement led by Nawshirwan Mustafa, the PUK, the Islamic
Union and the Islamic Group jointly proposed two options for the KDP, but the KDP
refuted both as they wanted Barzani to remain in power without any compromises.
The four parties asked for a parliamentary system but the KDP refused it. That
has brought the KRG to a political deadlock which eventually fueled the masses
to come onto streets. Even though the current political crisis has been
intensified by the Presidency issue, people have been fed up with the system for
a long time, and they have told the KRG leadership on different occasions that
they cannot accept the current system.
The corruption is the main reason
for the political crisis and civil unrest in Kurdistan, and I am sure if
people's demands aren’t met, then it will lead to more violence that no one can
anticipate the future of.
All in all, there are two fronts
in the KRG; one wants to turn the KRG into a Saudi Arabia model whereas the
other wants to prevent this from happening and is struggling for a democratic
region in which the rule of law is experienced.
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