Thursday, October 1, 2015

Large Drop In Casualties In Iraq 4th Wk Of Sep, But Figures Not Reliable


In the fourth week of September 2015 attacks remained largely the same as the previous month, but there was a dramatic drop in the number of dead and wounded. One reason might have been the Eid holiday and the increased security precautions. At the same time many papers closed down for most of the week, which meant a lot of violence went unreported. This was another example of how casualties have stopped being a reliable measure of the security situation in Iraq since the summer of 2014 because of censorship and government propaganda.

There were 128 attacks in the media from September 22-28. That was in line with the previous weeks when there were 122 incidents from September 15-21, 144 from September 8-14, 139 from September 1-7, 136 from August 22-28, 135 from August 15-21, and 132 from August 8-14. During that 7-week stretch there has been an average of 19.0 incidents per day. That compared to 20.6 attacks per day during the 7 weeks beforehand.

Baghdad had the most attacks with 50. After that there were 30 in Anbar, 20 in Salahaddin, 10 in Ninewa, 7 in Diyala, 6 in Kirkuk, 3 in Babil, and one in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).

During the week there were 190 deaths and 258 wounded. That was the fewest number reported killed and injured in a full week for all of 2015. The major cause could have been the increased security that the government provided during the Eid holiday. However, the fact that many of Iraq’s newspapers went on holiday was probably a bigger factor. This highlights the fact that casualties are not a good measure of violence in Iraq anymore. Too many incidents have not been reported, and the government rarely goes public with its losses. That means what is counted should be considered a bare minimum for what is really happening in the country.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015
Date
Incidents
Dead
Wounded
Jan 1-7
189
466
464
Jan 8-14
172
733
518
Jan 15-21
189
403
528
Jan 22-28
195
492
899
Jan 29-31
91
306
568
JAN
836
2,400
2,977
Feb 1-7
155
408
688
Feb 8-14
177
443
566
Feb 15-21
169
592
383
Feb 22-28
171
391
705
FEB
672
1,834
2,342
Mar 1-7
176
373
595
Mar 8-14
137
398
656
Mar 15-21
146
1,304
505
Mar 22-28
174
273
406
Mar 29-31
72
205
219
MAR
705
2,553 + 4
2,381 + 150
Apr 1-7
127
218
422
Apr 8-14
137
676
542
Apr 15-21
172
729
717
Apr 22-28
163
497
483
Apr 29-30
50
162 + 7
182 + 299
APR
649
2,282
2,346
May 1-7
154
627
450
May 8-14
154
420
549
May 15-21
124
963
387
May 22-28
108
341 + 1,499
348
May 29-31
38
66
164 + 646
MAY
578
2,417 + 1,499
1,898 + 646
Jun 1-7
132
431
476
Jun 8-14
126
522 + 405
394
Jun 15-21
141
365
373
Jun 22-28
162
306
474
Jun 29-30
61
122
189
JUN
622
1,804
2,012
Jul 1-7
161
435
719
Jul 8-14
140
384
570
Jul 15-21
109
359
597 + 4,024
Jul 22-28
145
527
590
Jul 29-31
53
453 + 8
603
JUL
608
2,166
3,079 + 4,024
Aug 1-7
154
650 + 760
298
Aug 8-14
132
726
645
Aug 15-21
135
345
354
Aug 22-28
136
342
296
Aug 29-31
59
112 + 5
169
AUG
616
2,180 + 760
1,762
Sep 1-7
139
285
352
Sep 8-14
144
368
394
Sep 15-21
122
323
488
Sep 22-28
128
190
258

Violence In Iraq Sep 2015 by Province
Provinces
Sep 1-7
Sep 8-14
Anbar
25 Incidents
52 Killed: 5 Civilians, 10 Hashd, 13 ISF, 24 Sahwa
45 Wounded: 8 Civilians, 10 Sahwa, 12 ISF, 15 Hashd
10 Shootings
4 Suicide Bombers
3 Suicide Car Bombs
2 Mortars
19 Suicide Bombers Killed
20 Car Bombs Destroyed
24 Incidents
29 Killed: 4 Civilians, 8 Hashd, 17 ISF
57 Wounded: 13 Hashd, 19 ISF, 25 Civilians
10 Shootings
2 IEDs
2 Suicide Bombers
2 Suicide Car Bombs
2 Mortars
4 Suicide Bombers killed
5 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
1 Motorcycle Bomb Destroyed
13 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil
2 Incidents
2 Killed: 2 Civilians
5 wounded: 5 Civilians
1 IED
5 Incidents
4 Killed: 4 Civilians
14 Wounded: 4 ISF, 10 Civilians
1 Shooting
3 IEDs
Baghdad
58 Incidents
73 Killed: 2 ISF, 71 Civilians
199 Wounded: 8 ISF, 191 Civilians
11 Shootings
28 IEDs
8 Sticky Bombs
2 Car Bombs
1 Grenade
2 Car Bombs Destroyed
57 Incidents
65 Killed: 1 Sahwa, 2 Hashd, 4 ISF, 58 Civilians
154 Wounded: 14 ISF, 140 Civilians
14 Shootings
22 IEDs
10 Sticky Bombs
1 Car Bomb
2 Grenades
Basra
-
3 Incidents
1 Wounded: 1 ISF
2 IEDs
1 Sound Bomb
Diyala
8 Incidents
14 Killed: 5 ISF, 9 Civilians
24 Wounded: 1 ISF, 23 Civilians
4 Shootings
2 IEDs
1 Car Bomb
1 Mortar
12 Incidents
16 Killed: 3 Hashd, 4 ISF, 9 Civilians
20 Wounded: 1 ISF, 1 Asayesh, 3 Hashd, 15 Civilians
5 Shootings
5 IEDs
1 Car Bomb
Karbala
1 Incident
2 Sound Bombs
1 Incident
1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Kirkuk
4 Incidents
1 Killed: 1 Civilian
1 Wounded: 1 Hashd
2 Shootings
2 Car Bombs Destroyed
6 Incidents
29 Killed: 9 Civilians, 20 Peshmerga
121 Wounded: 6 Civilians, 115 Peshmerga
2 Shootings
3 IEDs
KRG
-
2 Incidents
95 Killed: 95 PKK
2 Turkish Air Strikes
Ninewa
21 Incidents
116 Killed: 8 Peshmerga, 108 Civilians
22 Wounded: 2 Peshmerga, 20 Civilians
10 Shootings
3 IEDs
1 Rocket
1 Mortar
13 Incidents
104 Killed: 8 Peshmerga, 32 ISF, 64 Civilians
4 Shootings
1 IED
1 Mortar
Qadisiyah
1 Incident
-
Salahaddin
19 Incidents
27 Killed: 6 ISF, 21 Civilians
56 Wounded: 21 ISF, 35 Civilians
7 Shootings
4 IEDs
1 Mortar
12 Suicide Bombers Killed
1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed
21 Incidents
26 Killed: 6 Hashd, 9 Civilians, 11 ISF
27 Wounded: 7 Hashd, 9 ISF, 11 Civilians
11 Shootings
4 IEDs
1 Car Bomb
2 Suicide Bombers Killed
9 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
1 Motorcycle Bomb Destroyed
1 Car Bomb Destroyed

Provinces
Sep 15-21
Sep 22-28
Anbar
18 Incidents
30 Killed: 4 ISF, 26 Civilians
56 Wounded: 6 ISF, 50 Civilians
9 Shootings
1 IED
1 Rockets
2 Mortars
3 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
30 Incidents
52 Killed: 8 ISF, 17 Hashd, 27 Civilians
37 Wounded: 1 ISF, 9 Hashd, 27 Civilians
15 Shootings
3 Suicide Car Bombs
4 Mortars
1 Artillery
42 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil
3 Incidents
6 Killed: 6 Civilians
19 Wounded: 19 Civilians
3 IEDs
3 Incidents
9 Wounded: 9 Civilians
1 Shooting
1 IED
1 Sticky Bomb
Baghdad
50 Incidents
88 Killed: 2 Sahwa, 6 ISF, 80 Civilians
303 Wounded: 5 Sahwa, 9 ISF, 289 Civilians
13 Shootings
19 IEDs
4 Sticky Bombs
1 Suicide Bomber
3 Car Bombs
2 Rockets
2 Suicide Bombers Killed
50 Incidents
57 killed: 1 ISF, 56 Civilians
168 Wounded: 1 Sahwa, 167 Civilians
8 Shootings
23 IEDs
5 Sticky Bombs
1 Car Bomb
1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed
2 Car Bombs Destroyed
Diyala
5 Incidents
9 Killed: 1 ISF, 8 Civilians
11 Wounded: 2 ISF, 9 Civilians
3 Shootings
1 IED
1 Sticky Bomb
2 Motorcycle Bombs Dismantled
1 Car Bomb Dismantled
7 Incidents
7 Killed: 1 ISF, 6 Civilians
23 Wounded: 1 ISF, 1 Hashd, 21 Civilians
3 Shootings
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Car Bomb
2 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
1 Car Bomb Destroyed
KRG
1 Incident
55 Killed: 55 PKK
1 Turkish Air Raid
1 Incident
19 Killed: 19 PKK
1 Turkish Air Strike
Kirkuk
8 Incidents
4 Killed: 4 Civilians
3 Wounded: 1 Civilian, 2 Hashd
2 Shootings
1 Rocket
6 Incidents
20 Killed: 20 Civilians
1 Wounded: 1 Hashd
2 Shootings
1 Mortar
Ninewa
16 Incidents
45 Killed: 5 ISF, 40 Civilians
9 Shootings
21 IEDs
1 Rocket
11 incidents
20 Killed: 2 Peshmerga, 5 ISF, 13 Civilians
12 Wounded: 12 Peshmerga
3 Shootings
1 IED
1 Mortar
1 Rockets
Salahaddin
21 Incidents
82 Killed: 4 ISF, 78 Civilians
96 Wounded: 27 ISF, 69 Civilians
15 Shootings
4 IEDs
2 Suicide Car Bombs
3 Mortars
1 Car Bomb Destroyed
20 Incidents
15 Killed: 3 ISF, 5 Civilians, 7 Hashd
8 Wounded: 4 Hashd, 4 Civilians
12 Shootings
2 IEDs
2 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
15 Car Bombs Destroyed
Wasit
1 incident
4 Killed: 4 Civilians
1 Shooting
-


The fourth week of September was another period of treading water in Anbar. The seventh operation to clear East Husaiba to the east of Ramadi was launched. Another sweep through Albu Diab started, even though the town has been declared cleared twice since the Anbar offensive began in July. The government’s forces continued to be drawn out into western Anbar by the Islamic State, this time with a new drive into Baghdadi, the third since July, which only saps manpower away from the main thrust into Ramadi and Fallujah. Fighting also continued in Garma where there has been an on going campaign since May. It’s not that Baghdad has not made progress in Anbar. There has been penetration into southern Ramadi and northern Fallujah for instance. The problem is the Iraqi Security Forces, Hashd, and tribes have not been able to hold many of the major towns surrounding the two main cities, and have continuously fallen for diversionary attacks by the Islamic State. The result is that the joint forces are squeezing the balloon in Anbar, pushing out insurgents from one area only to have them re-emerge in another.

Selected Security Operations In Anbar
East Husaiba
Albu Diab
Baghdadi
Operation 7/19/15
Cleared 7/29/15
Operation 7/30/15
Cleared 7/21/15
Cleared 9/13/15
Operation 8/24/15
Operation 7/26/15
Operation 9/26/15
Operation 9/25/15
Operation 8/2/15


Cleared 8/6/15


Operation 8/10/15


Operation 8/25/15


Cleared 8/30/15


Operation 9/16/15


Operation 9/25/15




East Baghdad continued to be a main target of the Islamic State in the capital province. There were 16 there, but 16 also in the south, along with 7 in the north and west respectively, along with 3 in the center. Those included 4 car bombs, three of which were destroyed or dismantled, 5 sticky bombs, 8 shootings, and 23 IEDs.

Attacks in Baghdad Sep 22-28, 2015
Center: 3 – 1 Car Bomb, 1 Kidnapping, 1 Sticky Bomb
East: 13 – 1 Body Found, 1 Robbery, 1 Sticky Bomb, 2 Car Bombs Dismantled, 3 Shootings, 5 IEDs
Outer East: 3 – 1 Shooting, 1 Sticky Bomb, 1 IED
North: 6 – 1 Robbery, 1 Sticky Bomb, 1 IED, 1 Body Found, 2 Kidnappings
Outer North: 1 – 1 Sticky Bomb
South: 11 – 1 Beheading, 1 Attempted Kidnapping, 2 Shootings, 7 IEDs
Outer South: 5 – 1 Shooting, 4 IEDs
West: 5 – 1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed, 4 IEDs
Outer West: 2 – 1 IED, 1 Rocket
Unknown: 1 – 1 Shooting

In Kirkuk the Kurds made another foray into the Daquq district. They were able to take one village on September 22. This offensive began on August 26, and has been able to capture almost three dozen towns since then. There have been reports that Kurdish volunteers have been looting, while the Peshmerga have been bulldozing houses and not letting locals return.

Turkey reported another foray into the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). On September 25 an air strike was said to have killed 19 Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) fighters. There were several other Turkish missions into Iraq during the week, but no reports of casualties.

IS made two attacks upon the Peshmerga in Sinjar during the week. The first was a mortar barrage that wounded two and then an infantry attack that left 2 Peshmerga dead and 10 wounded. The Islamic State also executed 18 people during the week in Mosul and Qayara.

In Salahaddin almost all of the fighting continued to center around Baiji. IS launched attacks throughout the district almost every day of the week. The government also launched another operation in Samarra Island, the fourth since the start of August.

Finally, the Islamic State’s on going car bomb campaign picked up pace again. During the third week of September there were only 10 vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in the entire country compared to 34 the week before. From September 22-28 there were 70 car bombs. Anbar was the main target with 45 there. Only three suicide bombers were successful with the other 42 destroyed. There were another 17 in Salahaddin, 11 of which were in the Baiji district. Four car bombs were launched against Baghdad with three being destroyed or dismantled before reaching their targets. Finally, Diyala was hit for the fifth straight week with 5 VBIEDs, which means IS might be picking up their bombing campaign there as well.

Car Bombs In Iraq, September 2015
Date
Location
Dead
Wounded
Sep 1
Haditha x3, Anbar
Khalis, Diyala
Sadoun St, Baghdad – 1 destroyed
16
26
Sep 2
Garma & Tal al-Mushahid, Anbar – 3 destroyed


Sep 3
Shaab & Shuhada, Baghdad
Garma, Anbar – 4 destroyed
Siniya, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
2
15
Sep 4
Haditha & Zoba, Anbar – 3 destroyed


Sep 5
Albu Aetha & Humaira Anbar– 5 destroyed


Sep 6
Bashir, Kirkuk – 2 destroyed


Sep 7
Albu Aetha, Anbar – 5 destroyed
Karrada, Baghdad – 1 destroyed


Totals
6 – 25 Destroyed
18
41
Sep 8
East of Ramadi, Anbar – 2 destroyed


Sep 9
Ain Assad, East Husaiba & Husaiba, Anbar – 3 destroyed


Sep 10
Albu Soda, Anbar
Jawaanh, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Siniya, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
9
14
Sep 11
Jaraeshi, Anbar – 1 destroyed


Sep 12
Albu Jwari, Salahaddin
Anbar Univ, East Husaiba – 7 destroyed
Hajaj, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed
3
8
Sep 13
Albu Aziz, Anbar
East Husaiba & Garma, Anbar – 4 destroyed
Albu Jwari & Baiji, Salahaddin – 5 destroyed
3
5
Sep 14
Nusour Sq, Baghdad
Khalis, Diyala
Ain Al-Tamur, Karbala – 1 destroyed
7
19
Totals
5 – 29 Destroyed
16
46
Sep 15



Sep 16



Sep 17
Wathbah Sq, Baghdad
West of Haditha, Anbar – 1 destroyed
South of Tikrit, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
11
57
Sep 18
5 Kilo, Anbar – 1 destroyed


Sep 19
Baiji Refinery x2, Salahaddin
Saqlawiya, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Baquba, Diyala – 1 destroyed
2
5
Sep 20



Sep 21
Amin & Shuhada, Baghdad
14
55
Totals
5 - 5 Destroyed
27
117
Sep 22
Husaiba, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Arboretum & Meshtal, Baghdad – 2 destroyed
Siniya & Tal Abu Jarad, Salahaddin – 10 destroyed


Sep 23
Khalis, Diyala
Garma, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Baladrooz, Diyala – 3 destroyed
4
18
Sep 24
Tal Albu Grad, Anbar – 2 destroyed


Sep 25
Garma & ?, Anbar – 32 destroyed
Baiji, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed


Sep 26
Garma & Rashad, Anbar – 5 destroyed
?, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed


Sep 27
Rofa x2, Anbar
12

Sep 28
Garma, Anbar
Sadound St, Baghdad
West, Baghdad – 1 destroyed
Samarra Island, Salahaddin – 5 destroyed
14
24
Totals
5 – 65 Destroyed
30
42


SOURCES

AIN, "ISF dismantles car bomb in southeast Baghdad," 9/22/15
- "More than 28 Daash killed and destroyed car bomb in Garma," 9/25/15
- "PMU foils ISIL attack on Baiji district by SVBIEDs, kils scores of terrorists," 9/22/15
- "Tens of Daash killed and car bomb blew up in Anbar," 9/26/15

Alsumaria, "Defense Announces clearing areas of Anbar and killed more than 350 terrorists," 9/25/15

Fraser, Suzan, "Turkey: More than 30 Kurdish rebels killed in Iraq raid," Associated Press, 9/29/15

Iraq Oil Report, “After Peshmerga victory, homes looted and destroyed,” 9/1/15

Kurd Press, "12 Peshmerga forces killed and injured in an IS attack in Shingal," 9/27/15

Al Mada, "The death and injury of 19 Daash including a suicide bomber driving a booby trapped tanker in Baghdad," 9/28/15

Mamoun, Abdelhak, "7 killed, 3 wounded in car explosion in central Baghdad," Iraqi News, 9/29/15

Al Masalah "The crowd: Baiji attack launched with nine car bombs," 9/22/15
- "Media declares war victories by joint forces," 9/24/15

NINA, "10 terrorists killed in east of Ramadi,' 9/22/15
- "/15/ terrorists of Daash killed in a quality operation for the popular mobilization east of Ramadi," 9/26/15,
- "Baghdad Operations forces foiled a terrorist attack on its troops north of al-Qarma," 9/27/15
- "A number of elements of the Peshmerga injured in mortar shells fall on their gathering in Sinjar in Nineveh," 9/26/15
- "A number of people killed and wounded in Diyala," 9/23/15
- "Six terrorists killed in the Island area in Samarra," 9/22/15

Al Rayy, "5 car bombs destroyed west of Samarra Island," 9/28/15
- "The destruction of a car bomb factory and found the bombers," 9/26/15
- "Security forces disarm a car bomb southeast Baghdad," 9/22/15

Shafaq News, "4 terrorists killed and two car bombs destroyed in al-Karma," 9/23/15
- "Baghdad operations: 3 dead and 18 injured in al-Saadoun bombing," 9/29/15

Sotaliraq, "25 Daash members killed and the destruction of three cars in Baiji," 9/25/15
- "Diyala governor announced the deaths of three suicide bombers thwarting their attacks east of Baquba," 9/23/15
- "Freeing of a village south of Kirkuk from Daash control," 9/22/15,
- "Killing and wounding 61 Daash rebels in Garma and arresting others in Baghdad," 9/26/15
- "Killing one policeman and wounding another blown up by a car bomb while trying to dismantle it in eastern Diyala," 9/23/15

Williams, Sara Elizabeth, “Kurds’ smouldering feud could reignite in northern Iraq,” The National, 9/10/15

Xinhua, "31 killed in clashes with IS militants in Iraq's Anbar," 9/28/15
- "35 killed in bomb attacks, clashes with IS militants in Iraq," 9/29/15

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