Tuesday, May 15, 2018

Early Iraq Election Results, 16 of 18 Provinces


The Iraq Election Commission has reported the results for all but Dohuk and Kirkuk provinces. The Sairoon list made up of Moqtada al-Sadr’s followers, the Communists and civil society groups continued its lead with 6 first place finishes including in Baghdad, and 4 second place positions including Basra.

With the lowest turnout since elections started in 2005 at 44%, Sairoon proved to have the strongest organization. 1st Sadr has a proven base coming from his family’s religious following, its social work in poor Shiite areas, his militia Saraya al-Salam, and a patronage network built up from holding ministries for the last 13 years. He was also the only leader that seriously embraced the reform trend in the country that has expressed itself in annual demonstrations calling for an end to corruption, better services and government, and an end to the ethnosectarian political quota system. As part of that he allied himself with the Iraqi Communist Party and civil organizations, which had been at the forefront of the protest movement. He also banned his Ahrar bloc from running. That set Sairoon apart from almost every other list because he had new faces running, and could claim that they were not the establishment.

Sairoon has to now form a coalition. Its two main demands, which grew out of the demonstrations were for a technocratic government and an end to ministries and positions in government being divided using ethnosectarian quotas. That will be a huge challenge as Sairoon’s lead over the other parties is not so great that it will be able to dictate terms. Rather like previous government formation processes there will be plenty of compromises and promises made. Again, because the top lists call came in so close those negotiations could take a very long time before a new prime minister is named.

Coming in second place was the Fatah list led by the Badr Organization and Haidi Amiri, which is made up of pro-Iran Hashd groups. It took five provinces including Basra and finished second in seven others such as Baghdad. Badr used to be the militia of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and has been in the government since 2005. The list proved to have a strong following amongst the families of Hashd members. Those fighters also built up a strong mythos in southern Iraq of average people who defended their country from the Islamic State. Sadr has continuously denounced many of the groups within Fatah for their abuses during the war, for their reliance upon Iran, and for being longtime rivals. Badr and Sadr’s old militia the Mahdi Army had running battles from Baghdad down to Basra for much of the U.S. occupation, and others like Asaib Ahl Al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah were breakaway factions. Given that history it will add another level of difficulty to putting a new government together. At the same time, all of them since 2005 have included all parties, and Tehran will likely put a huge amount of pressure for all the Shiite lists to unite as they traditionally have.

Prime Minister Haidar Abadi’s Nasr list finished a hugely disappointing third place. It made a major victory finishing first place in Ninewa a largely Sunni province, but otherwise it mostly finished third in seven provinces. The premier was hoping to win a comfortable plurality due to his victory over the Islamic State, and his handling of the Kurds after the independence referendum. His major problem was that he ran a weak campaign. He said he would fight corruption, but did nothing substantive. He ran party regulars, his decision to run separate from Vice President Nuri al-Maliki meant he split his own Dawa party, and never built any kind of political machine to get out the vote. Abadi could retain his job as a compromise candidate between the lists. On the other hand, there is talk that some parties want to take the premiership from Dawa, which has held it since 2005.

Finishes By Major Lists

Sairoon – Moqtada al-Sadr-Communists
1st Place (6) Baghdad, Dhi Qar, Maysan, Muthanna, Najaf, Wasit
2nd Place (4) Babil, Basra, Karbala, Qadisiya  

Fatah – Badr/Haidi Ameri and pro-Iran Hashd
1st Place (5) Babil, Basra, Karbala, Muthanna, Qadisiya
2nd Place (7) Baghdad, Dhi Qar, Diyala, Maysan, Najaf, Salahaddin, Wasit

Nasr – Prime Minister Haidar Abadi
1st Place (1) Ninewa
3rd Place (7) Babil, Basra, Dhi Qar, Karbala, Najaf, Qadisiya, Wasit

Wataniya – Vice President Iyad Allawi
2nd Place (3) Anbar, Diyala, Ninewa
3rd Place (1) Salahaddin

Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) – KRG Premier Nechirvan Barzani
1st Place (1) Irbil
2nd Place (1) Ninewa

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) – KRG Deputy Premier Qubad Talabani
1st Place (1) Sulaymaniya
2nd Place (1) Irbil

Hikma – Ammar Hakim
3rd Place (2) Maysan, Muthanna

Qarar – Vice President Osama Nujafi
1st Place (1) Diyala

Change
2nd Place (1) Sulaymaniya

State of Law – Vice President Nuri al-Maliki
3rd Place (1) Baghdad

New Generation
3rd Place (2) Irbil, Sulaymaniya  

Results By Province

Anbar
1. Anbar Is Our Identity
2. Wataniya

Babil
1. Fatah
2. Sairoon
3. Nasr
4. Hikma
5. State of Law

Baghdad
1. Sairoon
2 Fatah
3. State of Law
4. Wataniya
5. Nasr

Basra
1. Fatah
2. Sairoon
3. Nasr
4. State of Law
5. Hikma

Dhi Qar
1. Sairoon
2. Fatah
3. Nasr
4. State of Law
5. Hikma
6. Iradah
7. Wataniya

Diyala
1. Qarar
2. Fatah
3. Wataniya
4. Sairoon
5. Nasr
6. Hikma
7. PUK
8. State of Law

Irbil
1. KDP
2. PUK
3. New Generation
4. Democracy and Justice
5. Change
6. Komal
7. KIU
8. Turkmen Front

Karbala
1. Fatah
2. Sairoon
3. Nasr
4. State of Law
5. Hikma
6. Wataniya

Maysan
1. Sairoon
2. Fatah
3. Hikma
4. Nasr
5. State of Law

Muthanna
1. Sairoon
2. Fatah
3. Hikma
4. Nasr
5. State of Law

Najaf
1. Sairoon
2. Fatah
3. Nasr
4. Hikma
5. State of Law

Ninewa
1. Nasr
2. KDP
3. Wataniya
4. Ninewa Our Identity
5. Fatah

Qadisiya
1. Fatah
2. Sairoon
3. Nasr
4. Hikma
5. State of Law

Salahaddin
1. Qalat Jamahir Wataniya
2. Fatah
3. Wataniya
4. Nasr

Sulaymaniya
1 PUK
2. Change
3. New Generation
4. Komal
5. KDP
6. Democracy and Justice
7. KIU

Wasit
1. Sairoon
2. Fatah
3. Nasr
4. Hikma
5. State of Law

SOURCES

Iraq News Network, “Asadi: Sadr told deputies not to participate in the upcoming elections,” 12/6/17
- “Sources: 44% voting rate by 1700 hours today,” 4/12/18

Majeed, Huda, “Iraq PM Abadi appears ahead in poll, Sadr strong: sources,” Reuters, 5/13/18

Al Mawqif, “The Sadrist movement reveals the details of its electoral alliance: the most prominent are its communist allies,” 1/11/18

Rudaw, “Abadi behind, Sadrist and Hashd gains in preliminary election results,” 5/13/18
- “Preliminary election results for 6 more provinces announced,” 5/14/18

Sattar, Omar, “Meet Iraq’s plentiful parliamentary alliances,” Al Monitor, 1/25/18

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