Sunday, May 20, 2018

Seat Allocation Announced For Iraq’s New Parliament

(Getty Images)
Iraq’s Election Commission announced the seat allocation amongst the winning lists. The previous results, which just covered which parties won in each province did not include the early votes case by the Iraqi Security Forces. Moqtada al-Sadr’s alliance with the Communists Sairoon remained in first place with 54 seats. It was followed by the pro-Iran Hashd Fatah with 47 seats, and Prime Minister Haidar Abadi’s Nasr with 42 seats. Vice President Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law moved up. Previously its best finish was 3rd in Baghdad. The extra votes moved it into fourth overall with 26 seats. The Kurdish vote was divide this year. The Kurdistan Democratic Party got the most seats with 25, followed by 18 for the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, 5 for Gorran, 2 each for the Coalition for Democracy and Justice, the Kurdistan Islamic Union, the Kurdistan Islamic Group, and the New Generation. After the disastrous independence referendum, the KDP and PUK are attempting to rejoin national politics. The other major lists were Vice President Iyad Allawi’s Wataniya that got 21 seats, Ammar Hakim’s Hikma with 19, and Vice President Osama Nujafi’s Qarar with 13. The final results have still not been certified as there will likely be court cases against the results. The Kurdish opposition, Arabs and Turkmen are all accusing the PUK of cheating in Kirkuk for example. Some other parties are threatening lawsuits as well in other provinces.

The early stages of creating a majority to form the new government are already underway. The most likely alignment is Sadr’s Sairoon (54 seats), PM Abadi’s Nasr (42 seats), Hakim’s Hikma (19 seats), and perhaps VP Allawi’s Wataniya (21 seats) and the KDP (25 seats). 165 seats are necessary. Sadr has already met Hakim and Abadi, and called Allawi. While the later visited former Kurdish President Massoud Barzani. If they all agree the next big question would be whether they go on to make Iraq’s first majority government or bring in the other parties for another national unity government. If Sadr is serious about ending ethnosectarian quotas in the government only including those closest to Sairoon would be an important step. Another major issue is if Abadi will hold onto his job or whether a new premier will be named. Iranian Quds Force commander General Qasim Suleimani has been in Baghdad since the election, and there are various reports that he is trying to stop Sadr from putting together the next administration. Things are just beginning so there could still be twists and turns before there is a new prime minister.

2018 Election Winners By Seats
Sairoon 54 seats
Fatah 47 seats
Nasr 42 seats
State of Law 26 seats
KDP 25 seats
Wataniya 21 seats
Hikma 19 seats
PUK 18 seats
Qarar 13 seats
Anbar Is Our Identity 6 seats
Gorran 5 seats
Baghdad Coalition 4 seats 
New Generation 4 seats 
Arab Coalition 3 seats
Iradah 3 seats
Ninewa Is Our Identity 3 seats
Qalat Jamahir Wataniya 3 seats
Turkmen Front 3 seats
Abirun 2 seats
Bairaq al-Khair 2 seats
Coalition for Democracy and Justice 2 seats
Competencies for Change 2 seats
Democratic Approach 2 seats
Kurdistan Islamic Union 2 seats
Kurdistan Islamic Group 2 seats
National Party 2 seats
Tamadin 2 seats
Babylon Movement 1 seat
Faily Kurds 1 seat
Independent 1 seat
Kurdistan National Council 1 seat
Men of Iraq 1 seat
Salahaddin Is Our Identity 1 seat
Tamadun 1 seat
Civil Part 1 seat
Civil Democratic Party 1 seat

2018 Election Winners By Province

Anbar
Anbar Is Our Identity 6 seats
Wataniya 3 seats
Nasr 2 seats
Abirun 2 seats
Qarar 2 seats

Babil
Fatah 4 seats
Sairoon 4 seats
Nasr 3 seats
Hikma 3 seats
State of Law 3 seats
Competencies For Change 1 seat

Baghdad
Sairoon 17 seats
Fatah 9 seats
State of Law 9 seats
Wataniya 8 seats
Nasr 8 seats
Hikma 4 seats
Qarar 4 seats
Baghad Coalition 4 seats 
Bairaq al-Khair 2 seats
Tamadin 1 seat
Iradah 1 seat
Civil Party 1 seat
Civil Democratic Party 1 seat

Basra
Fatah 6 seats
Sairoon 5 seats
Nasr 5 seats
State of Law 4 seats
Hikma 2 seats
Wataniya 1 seat
Iradah 1 seat
Men Of Iraq 1 seat

Dhi Qar
Sairoon 6 seats
Fatah 5 seats
State of Law 3 seats
Nasr 3 seats
Hikma 2 seats

Diyala
Wataniya 3 seats
Fatah 3 seats
Qarar 3 seats
Sairoon 2 seats
Nasr 1 seat
PUK 1 seat
Hikma 1 seat

Dohuk
KDP 10 seats
Kurdistan Islamic Union 1 seat

Irbil
KDP 8 seats
PUK 2 seats
New Generation 2 seats
Kurdistan Islamic Group (Komal) 1 seat
Democracy and Justice 1 seat
Change 1 seat

Karbala
Fatah 3 seats
Sairoon 3 seats
Nasr 2 seats
State of Law 2 seats
Hikma 1 seat

Kirkuk
PUK 6 seats
Arab Coalition 3 seats
Turkmen Front 3 seats

Maysan
Sairoon 5 seats
Fatah 2 seats
Hikma 1 seat
State of Law 1 seat
Nasr 1 seat

Muthanna
Sairoon 2 seats
Fatah 2 seats
State of Law 1 seat
Nasr 1 seat
Hikma 1 seat

Najaf
Sairoon 4 seats
Fatah 3 seats
Nasr 3 seats
Hikma 1 seat
State of Law 1 seat

Ninewa
Nasr 7 seats
KDP 6 seats
Wataniya 4 seats
Ninewa Is Our Identity 3 seats
Fatah 3 seats
Qarar 3 seats
National Party 2 seats
Democratic Approach 2 seats
PUK 1 seat
Kurdistan National Council 1 seat
Independent 1 seat
Babylon Movement 1 seat
Tamadin 1 seat

Qadisiyah
Fatah 3 seats
Sairoon 3 seats
Nasr 2 seats
State of Law 1 seat
Hikma 1 seat
Iradah 1 seat

Salahaddin
Qalat Jamahir Wataniya 3 seats
Fatah 2 seats
Wataniya 2 seats
Nasr 2 seats
Qarar 2 seats
Salahaddin Is Our Identity 1 seat
Civil Party 1 seat

Sulaymaniya
PUK 8 seats
Change 4 seats
New Generation 2 seats
KDP 1 seat
Kurdistan Islamic Group (Komal) 1 seat
Democracy and Justice 1 seat
Kurdistan Islamic Union 1 seat

Wasit
Sairoon 3 seats
Fatah 2 seats
Nasr 2 seats
Hikma 2 seats
State of Law 1 seat
Competencies For Change 1 seat
Faily Kurds 1 seat

SOURCES

Ali, Sangar, “Iraq announces final election results; KDP leads in Kurdistan,” Kurdistan 24, 5/18/18

Baghdad Post, “Sadr discusses with Allawi developments of political process,” 5/17/18
- “UPDATE: Official results of Iraq parliamentary elections as we get them,” 5/19/18

Bas News, “Barzani, Wataniya Coalition Leader Discussing Next Government Formation,” 5/19/18

Coles, Isabel and Nabhan, Ali, “Questions Mount About Possible Fraud in Iraq Vote,” Wall Street Journal, 5/17/18

Al Mada, “A possible scenario to form the largest parliamentary bloc including Nasr, Kurdish parties and others,” 5/19/18

Al Maalomah, “Mr Sadr after his meeting with Hakim: We are coming to a new stage of technocrats to build Iraq,” 5/17/18

NINA, “Final Results….Sa’iroon Alliance Comes First With 54, Followed By Al-Fatah Second And Nasr (victory) Third,” 5/19/18

Shafaaq News, “Abadi announced an understanding with Sadr to form a government and reveal its features,” 5/20/18

Sotaliraq, “Sadr is facing complex process in forming government and is not far from repeating Allawi’s scenario,” 5/17/18
- “UNHCR announces final results of Iraqi parliamentary elections,” 5/18/18

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