Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Iraq Election Results All 18 Provinces


Iraq’s Election Commission finished reporting its early returns for all 18 provinces. Sadr’s Sairoon list remained in the lead with 6 first place finishes and 4 2nd place ones. The pro-Iran Hashd list Fatah had five 1st place finishes and now has 8 second place ones adding Kirkuk. (There is a recount going on in that province so the standings could change). Prime Minister Haidar Abadi’s Nasr only won Ninewa, but otherwise finished third in seven governorates. Vice President Iyad Allawi’s Wataniya could only pull three 2nd places and two 3rd places. The two main Kurdish parties the KDP and PUK took Dohuk, Irbil, Kirkuk and Sulaymaniya. Change’s best showing was 2nd in Sulaymaniya, while the New Generation came in 3rd in Irbil and Sulaymaniya. Vice President Iyad Allawi’s Wataniya finished 2nd three times and 3rd twice. Vice President Osama Nujafi’s Qarar won Diyala, but otherwise did poorly. Vice President Nuri al-Maliki’s State of Law and Ammar Hakim’s Hikma didn’t do well either finishing 3rd in Baghdad and Maysan and Muthanna respectively.
(CNN)


Early talks to form a new government have already begun, and are expected to pick up during Ramadan, which just started. The earliest stories are that Maliki and Amiri have met to discuss an alliance. The two have been close before and have strong ties to Iran as well. Maliki was originally hoping to have Amiri and other pro-Tehran Hashd factions run with him, but that fell apart due to Maliki’s attempts to appeal to the Kurds after their referendum and other moves. Amiri also likely did not want to play second fiddle to the vice president. The other lead is that Maliki and Abadi are trying to unite their two wings of the Dawa Party. They have been bitter rivals of each other, but they have been talking to each other since before the election. That will be very interesting because Sadr does not want to have anything to do with Maliki another one of his longtime enemies, while having supported Abdi for most of his administration.

The process of forming a new government in Iraq consists of long negotiations, deal making and promises to bring together the wide variety of parties and personalities together. This will be a difficult year because all the major communities are fractured and the top lists have a close number of seats, so even though Sadr’s Sairoon won the most, it will be very hard to get other parties behind him. Iraq might even witnesses a situation like 2010 where the winner Iyad Allawi was out maneuvered by Premier Nuri al-Maliki. For instance, if Sadr really pushes his calls for a technocratic government and the end of the ethnosectarian quotas other parties might coalesce to maintain the status quo. If will be very interesting to watch.

Finishes By Major Lists

Sairoon – Moqtada al-Sadr-Communists
1st Place (6) Baghdad, Dhi Qar, Maysan, Muthanna, Najaf, Wasit
2nd Place (4) Babil, Basra, Karbala, Qadisiya  

Fatah – Badr/Haidi Ameri and pro-Iran Hashd
1st Place (5) Babil, Basra, Karbala, Muthanna, Qadisiya
2nd Place (8) Baghdad, Dhi Qar, Diyala, Kirkuk, Maysan, Najaf, Salahaddin, Wasit

Nasr – Prime Minister Haidar Abadi
1st Place (1) Ninewa
3rd Place (7) Babil, Basra, Dhi Qar, Karbala, Najaf, Qadisiya, Wasit

Wataniya – Vice President Iyad Allawi
2nd Place (3) Anbar, Diyala, Ninewa
3rd Place (2) Kirkuk, Salahaddin

Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) – KRG Premier Nechirvan Barzani
1st Place (2) Dohuk, Irbil
2nd Place (1) Ninewa

Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) – KRG Deputy Premier Qubad Talabani
1st Place (2) Kirkuk, Sulaymaniya
2nd Place (1) Irbil

Hikma – Ammar Hakim
3rd Place (2) Maysan, Muthanna

Qarar – Vice President Osama Nujafi
1st Place (1) Diyala

Change
2nd Place (1) Sulaymaniya

State of Law – Vice President Nuri al-Maliki
3rd Place (1) Baghdad

New Generation
3rd Place (2) Irbil, Sulaymaniya 

Results By Province

Anbar
1. Anbar Is Our Identity
2. Wataniya

Babil
1. Fatah
2. Sairoon
3. Nasr
4. Hikma
5. State of Law

Baghdad
1. Sairoon
2 Fatah
3. State of Law
4. Wataniya
5. Nasr

Basra
1. Fatah
2. Sairoon
3. Nasr
4. State of Law
5. Hikma

Dhi Qar
1. Sairoon
2. Fatah
3. Nasr
4. State of Law
5. Hikma
6. Iradah
7. Wataniya

Diyala
1. Qarar
2. Fatah
3. Wataniya
4. Sairoon
5. Nasr
6. Hikma
7. PUK
8. State of Law

Dohuk
1. KDP
2. KIU
3. Democracy and Justice
4. PUK
5. New Generation
6. Babul Arab
7. Kurdistan Socialist Party
8. Kurdistan Islamic Union
9. Kidan Coalition
10. Change
11. Kurdistan Islamic Group

Irbil
1. KDP
2. PUK
3. New Generation
4. Democracy and Justice
5. Change
6. Komal
7. KIU
8. Turkmen Front

Karbala
1. Fatah
2. Sairoon
3. Nasr
4. State of Law
5. Hikma
6. Wataniya

Kirkuk – Manual Recount Started
1. PUK
2. Fatah
3. Wataniya
4. Nishtiman
5. New Generation

Maysan
1. Sairoon
2. Fatah
3. Hikma
4. Nasr
5. State of Law

Muthanna
1. Sairoon
2. Fatah
3. Hikma
4. Nasr
5. State of Law

Najaf
1. Sairoon
2. Fatah
3. Nasr
4. Hikma
5. State of Law

Ninewa
1. Nasr
2. KDP
3. Wataniya
4. Ninewa Our Identity
5. Fatah

Qadisiya
1. Fatah
2. Sairoon
3. Nasr
4. Hikma
5. State of Law

Salahaddin
1. Qalat Jamahir Wataniya
2. Fatah
3. Wataniya
4. Nasr

Sulaymaniya
1 PUK
2. Change
3. New Generation
4. Komal
5. KDP
6. Democracy and Justice
7. KIU

Wasit
1. Sairoon
2. Fatah
3. Nasr
4. Hikma
5. State of Law

SOURCES

Al Mada, “Shiite forces launch test balloons in preparation for process of exhausting negotiations during Ramadan,” 5/15/18

Rudaw, “Abadi behind, Sadrist and Hashd gains in preliminary election results,” 5/13/18
- “Election body preliminary results: PUK wins Kirkuk, KDP takes Duhok,” 5/15/18
- “Preliminary election results for 6 more provinces announced,” 5/14/18

2 comments:

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