Iraq’s Oil Exports Drop For 4th Straight Month

Iraq continues to try to comply with its OPEC+ production quota resulting in lower oil exports and revenues.

 

For the fourth straight month Iraq’s oil exports declined. In July the Oil Ministry sold 3.486 million barrels a day. That dropped to 3.414 million in August, 3.31 million in September, 3.327 million in October and 3.296 million in November.

 

Overall Iraq is averaging 3.382 million barrels a day in exports this year the highest since 2019.

 

Baghdad is still not in compliance however. It is supposed to be producing 3.997 million barrels a day. Iraq Oil Report estimated that its output is around 4.068 million. Despite that the Oil Ministry is claiming that it is meeting its quota in part by not including Kurdistan. The country has never met its quota because it is the most oil dependent country in the world and its main goal is to increase output and gain greater share of the market. It also passed the two largest budgets in the nation’s history and needs to earn as much as possible to pay for them.

 

Petroleum revenues are also going down not only because of fewer exports but a drop in international prices. In July Iraq earned $9.08 billion which was the most since October 2023. Since then its earnings have gone from $8.49 billion in August to $7.11 billion in September to $7.47 billion in October to $7.01 billion in November. The last is the lowest figure since September 2021.

 

Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2020-2022

Month	Avg Export (Mil)	Earnings (Bil)
Jan 2021	2.868	$4.765
Feb	2.96	$5.013
Mar	2.946	$5.787
Apr	2.947	$5.549
May	2.899	$5.917
Jun	2.892	$6.143
Jul	2.918	$6.476
Aug	3.054	$6.553
Sep	3.081	$6.777
Oct	3.12	$7.666
Nov	3.272	$7.611
Dec	3.277	$7.391
2021 Avg	3.019	$6.303
Jan 2022	3.203	$8.323
Feb	3.314	$8.544
Mar	3.244	$10.913
Apr	3.38	$10.554
May	3.3	$11.44
Jun	3.373	$11.505
Jul	3.303	$10.608
Aug	3.286	$9.784
Sep	3.292	$8.845
Oct	3.382	$9.258
Nov	3.329	$8.231
Dec	3.332	$7.709
2022 Avg	3.311	$9.64
Jan	3.266	$7.663
Feb	3.184	$7.081
Mar	3.255	$7.506
Apr	3.288	$7.699
May	3.305	$7.325
Jun	3.335	$7.115
Jul	3.444	$8.294
Aug	3.423	$8.998
Sep	3.438	$9.422
Oct	3.534	$9.594
Nov	3.433	$8.482
Dec	3.486	$8.311
2023 Avg	3.365	$8.124
Jan	3.339	$8.02
Feb	3.434	$7.96
Mar	3.423	$8.65
Apr	3.413	$8.75
May	3.359	$8.14
Jun	3.41	$8.25
Jul	3.486	$9.08
Aug	3.414	$8.49
Sep	3.31	$7.11
Oct	3.327	$7.47
Nov	3.296	$7.01
2024 Avg	3.382	$8.08

 

SOURCES

 

Iraq Oil Report, “CORRECTED: Iraq deepens production cuts,” 11/21/24

 

Van Heuvelen, Ben, “Oil exports recede as OPEC-plus extends cuts,” Iraq Oil Report, 12/5/24