Iraq’s Shiite Parties Unite To Sideline Allawi, Up Next Maliki

The United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) was the dominant list in the 2005 elections. It was made up of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), the Dawa Party, the Sadrists, Fadhila Party, and several other smaller parties and individuals. In the January 2005 parliamentary vote it won 140 seats, and then 128 seats in December 2005. With those electoral victories it was able to name the country’s two post-return of sovereignty prime ministers, Ibrahim al-Jaafari and Nouri al-Maliki. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and Iran were two of the biggest supporters of the list. Both wanted the Shiites to unite, and to take control of the new state.

By 2006 the UIA began to break apart. The Sadrists and Fadhila defected, and by the January 2009 provincial elections, Maliki created his own State of Law list to run against the Sadrists and Supreme Council who ran independently that time as well.

Immediately after the 2009 vote moves were underway to bring the UIA back together again. In February 2009, Moqtada al-Sadr said that he would rejoin a Shiite alliance if it had a different name and the Supreme Council was not leading it. Iran also began hosting Shiite politicians to lobby them to unite. In August that led to the Iraqi National Alliance made up of the Supreme Council, the Sadrists, former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari’s National Reform Party, and a few other Shiite and Sunni parties. They pushed hard for Maliki to join them, but in October he announced that his State of Law wound run independently again after the National Alliance refused to give him control of 51% of the candidates and name him as their candidate for prime minister. Even then there were constant reports before and after the March 2010 election that Maliki would rejoin the other Shiite parties.

That finally happened on May 4 when it was announced that the State of Law and the National Alliance were merging. Together the two lists have 159 seats, just four seats shy of the 163 needed to form a ruling coalition. Tehran again had a hand in bringing the Shiites together as immediately after the balloting, State of Law and the Supreme Council sent delegations to Iran to meet with Sadr to talk about a new government. Few details have been announced about how the new list will work together, most importantly how they will nominate a prime minister. This has been a constant sticking point, as the Sadrists and others oppose Maliki. For now the main goal of the new Shiite coalition is to maintain their control of the state, and keep Iyad Allawi out of power. That doesn’t mean his National Movement won’t have a seat at the table of a new government, but Allawi will not be allowed to become prime minister again. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean that Iraq’s politicians are any closer to forming a new regime. The new Shiite alliance said that they would next turn to the Kurds to join them. Other smaller parties may be brought in as well. That still leaves one major hurtle to overcome, how to outmaneuver Maliki, which will likely be the last move before a new Iraqi government is announced.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “Iraqiya fears sectarianism in new alliance,” 5/5/10
- “Al Maliki sets conditions to join Coalition,” 8/25/09
- “Two Iraqi major blocs form an alliance,” 5/5/10

Associated Press, “Iraqi Sunni concerned over new Shiite alliance,” 5/5/10

Aswat al-Iraq, “URGENT/Coalition to be announced between State of Law, INA,” 5/4/10

BBC, “Iraq election: Shia groups agree coalition deal,” 5/5/10

Daragahi, Borzou, “Maliki’s bloc forges alliance with another Shiite faction,” Los Angeles Times, 5/5/10

England, Andrew, “Iraqi Shia groups form alliance,” Financial Times, 5/5/10

Al Jazeera, “Iraqiya: Shia alliance made in Iran,” 5/5/10
- “Maliki allies with rival Shia party,” 5/5/10

Kazimi, Nibras, “Announcing the ‘New’ UIA,” Talisman Gate, 8/24/09

Myers, Steven Lee, “Shiite Alliance in Iraq May Push Allawi Aside,” New York Times, 5/4/10

Raphaeli, Dr. Nimrod, “Al-Maliki Turns His Back on Iran, Embraces Iraqi Nationalism,” Middle East Media Research Institute, 9/2/09

Reuters, “Iraq’s Shia blocs form alliance to bolster push for government,” 5/5/10

Visser, Reidar, “At Long Last, Tehran Gets Its Alliance and the Clock Is Turned Back to 2005 in Iraq,” Iraq And Gulf Analysis, 5/4/10

Iraq’s Officials Becoming Drain On Budget

An auditor from Iraq’s Finance Ministry recently warned that salaries and benefits for Iraq’s politicians may eventually wreck the country’s budget. In 2008, an average Iraqi earned $266 a month, $3,200 a year. In comparison, a member of parliament earned $7,700 a month. They also receive 30 bodyguards, free accommodation, and a personal generator that together costs up to $10,000 a month. Former officials and parliamentarians also get a pension that is 80% of their salary. On top of that, in 2009 Iraq’s parliament passed a law allowing their wives and family to carry passports for ten years. They are also eligible for low interest loans worth up to $70,000 for cars and buying property. This year expenses will rise even more as the government will have to pay for the new lawmakers and the outgoing ones. The 2010 budget is also adding new regional officials so the total number of employees is going up as well. That same budget also included a 10% pay cut, but most think that was just symbolic. The auditor warned that if costs continue to go up, it could eventually be the largest expenditure in the budget in ten years, and deprive the country of much needed investment money. To solve the problem the Finance Ministry has proposed a 50% wage reduction for all public officials. That’s highly unlikely to happen as Iraq’s top officials and politicians are said to be opposed to it. The bloated government bureaucracy and the deadlocked parliament are already big enough problems for Iraq’s development. The fact that they are largely overpaid and becoming a drain on the country’s finances only makes the situation worse.

SOURCES

Najm, Hayder, “the huge, hidden salaries of iraq’s parliamentarians,” Niqash, 4/22/10

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Iraqi Officials Warn Deputies’ Wages, Benefits Too High,” 4/24/10

Shell-Mitsubishi Natural Gas Deal May Be Delayed Indefinitely

In March 2010 a preliminary agreement between Royal Dutch Shell, Mitsubishi, and the Iraqi Oil Ministry to develop natural gas in Basra expired. The deal would’ve created a joint venture between the three to collect and sell 700,000 cubic feet per day of gas. Iraq currently produces 1.64 billion cubic feet per day, mostly during oil production, but 70% of that is burnt off rather than used. 

Talks between the three have been delayed for more than two years now since February 2008. The main reason is that Baghdad does not have the money to pay the two companies their 51% share of any gas production deal because of budgetary issues. Iraq has also been slow to refurbish its gas and power infrastructure necessary for the extraction, and the international oil companies that signed agreements with Baghdad in 2009 are unwilling to provide natural gas to the consortium because they may need it themselves to extract petroleum. As a result, Shell and Mitsubishi were given another six-month extension to complete the deal. That deadline may come and go as well, because it could take most of that time for Iraq to form a new government after its March 2010 election. Whatever new regime comes to power is likely to review all of the plans underway, causing more delay. In the meantime Iraq will be wasting another valuable resource, and the Shell-Mitsubishi talks may never come to fruition.

SOURCES

Carlisle, Tamsin, “Iraq’s Kurdish region aims to resume oil exports,” The National, 4/12/10

Hafidh, Hassan, “UPDATE: Iraq To Hold New Bid Round For 3 Gas Fields – Official,” Dow Jones Newspapers

New DeBaathification Moves Unlikely To Change Iraq’s Political Scene

As the Accountability and Justice Commission is awaiting a court decision on the fate of nine winning candidates it wants to be disqualified for alleged ties to the banned Baath Party, the names of eight of them have been revealed. Earlier, the Accountability Commission also threw out 52 other candidates, two of which were winners as well. The identity of one of those victorious politicians has also been made public. If all the candidates are banned it could change the total seat count amongst Iraq’s largest lists, but it’s unlikely to end the current deadlock between them.

Eight of the ten known banned candidates come from Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National Movement. Ibrahim al-Mutlaq was one of the 52 earlier banned politicians. He replaced his brother, Saleh al-Mutlaq, who was disqualified in the first wave of deBaathification that started in January 2010. The National Movement revealed the names of seven other candidates in April. They are Muhammad Naser Karbuli who ran in Anbar, Iskander Witwit who ran in Babil, Attab Jasem Nasif, Qays Shathr, and Adnan Janabi who all ran in Baghdad, Jamal Batikh from Wasit, and Falah Hassan Zaidan of Ninewa. All eight candidates together won 77,266 votes, all of which will be thrown out if the Accountability Commission gets its way.

If the votes are dropped and the National Movement still has the majority in each province, they will be able to name the replacement. However if they don’t win after the ballot change, then the runner-up list will get the seat. According to the Institute for the Study of War and Reidar Visser of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, the National Movement could lose two seats, one in Babil and one in Wasit if all the candidates are banned. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law could take the seat in Babil, while the Sadrist-Supreme Council led Iraqi National Alliance could get the seat in Wasit. That could give State of Law the largest number of overall seats going from 89 now to a possible 90, and cost Allawi his 91-seat lead.

In the end, the latest deBaathification moves are unlikely to change the overall political dynamics within the country. No party has the 163 seats necessary to form a new government, which means the largest parties need to form a coalition whether they lose or gain a few seats. All of Iraq’s top politicians are talking about forming a new national unity government that would include State of Law, the National Movement, the National Alliance, and the Kurdish Alliance. The disqualifications, and the on-going re-count in Baghdad province are just attempts by the leading Shiite parties to weaken Allawi’s nationalist and secular list before a new ruling coalition is formed because he was the winner in the March election. State of Law and the National Alliance are trying to take away his lead and make him a junior partner rather than the frontrunner in negotiations over the new regime. In order to join the new government however, Allawi has to give up his nomination to become the new prime minister since the Shiite parties want that position. Until he does that, State of Law and the National Alliance are likely to continue with various moves meant to weaken him.

Candidates Facing deBaathification (Name, Votes, Province, List, Possible Change)
Falah Hassan Zaidan, 18,954, Ninewa, National Movement, No Change
Muhammad Naser Karbuli, 16,122, Anbar, National Movement, No change
Iskander Witwit, 11,644, Babil, National Movement, Seat goes to Iraqi National Alliance
Jamal Batikh, 9,163, Wasit, National Movement, Seat goes to State of Law
Attab Jasem Nasif, 6,179, Baghdad, National Movement, No change
Ibrahim al-Mutlaq, 5,473, Baghdad, National Movement, No change
Qays Shathr, 3,451, Baghdad, National Movement, No change

Possible Change In Total Seat Count By Party
State of Law 89 to 90
National Movement 91 to 89
National Alliance 70 to 71

SOURCES

AK News, “Al-Iraqiya threatens of withdrawing if its winning members were excluded,” 4/30/10
- “The judiciary board deletes the votes of 52 candidates without their votes to their blocs,” 4/26/10
- “’State of Law interferes in excluding candidates,’” 4/27/10

Associated Press, “Baghdad Vote Recount to Take About 2-3 Weeks,” 4/29/10

Aswat al-Iraq, “Attempts to change election results – politician,” 4/27/10

Danly, James & Sullivan, Marisa Cochrane, “Iraqi Candidate Disqualification Update,” Institute for the Study of War, 4/29/10

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Iraqi Bloc Plans Response To Candidates’ Disqualification,” 4/27/10

Visser, Reidar, “Maliki vs Lami, Maliki/Lami vs Allawi(Update),” Iraq And Gulf Analysis, 4/29/10
- “More Post-Election De-Baathification: Another Blow to the Idea of Democracy in Iraq,” Iraq And Gulf Analysis, 4/26/10

Half Of Corruption Case Against Iraq’s Former Trade Minister Dropped

Iraq has routinely been ranked one of the most corrupt countries in the world over the last several years. In 2009 for example, Transparency International, a German based organization that tracks corruption around the world, had Iraq tied with Sudan for the 4th most corrupt country in the world. That hasn’t stopped Iraq’s main anti-corruption agency, the Integrity Commission from its Herculean task of fighting this problem. In mid-2009 it faced its most high profile case when the Trade Minister Abdul al-Falah al-Sudani, one of his brothers, and several other Ministry officials were arrested for fraud and embezzlement. 

The story started on May 3, 2009 when the government issued arrest warrants for several Trade Ministry officials, including the Trade Minister, his two brothers, the Grain Board Director, the Director General of the Foodstuffs Trading Company, and the ministry’s oversight official on orders from the Integrity Commission. When the security forces arrived at the Trade Ministry, a gunfight ensued between them and Ministry guards. During the shooting all of those wanted escaped. A few days later, Minister Sudani, while still a wanted man, said that he had replaced all of those with arrest warrants for them. On May 9, one of the Minister’s brothers, Sabah Mohammed al-Sudani was arrested at a border spot in Basra trying to flee the country. He was found with $150,000 on his person, and tried to bribe the border police with $50,000 to let him escape. Minister Sudani was eventually brought before parliament’s Integrity Committee for questioning about the charges against his ministry in mid-May where he denied everything, and faced a no confidence vote. Before that could happen he resigned to save face for himself and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki since Sudani was from his Dawa Party. Eventually, Sudani was arrested on May 30 as he tried to leave the country, and placed in a Baghdad prison. 

The charges against Sudani and others has to do with the $5.3 billion food ration system, the largest in the world, that the Trade Ministry controls, which was ripe for stealing. The head of parliament’s Integrity Committee claimed they had papers showing that $4 billion was missing from the Ministry, and that figure might be as high as $8 billion over the last four years. Ministry officials participated in a huge number of scams. One was to buy cheap expired food and charge the Ministry full price and pocket the difference. Another was for officials to buy food for the Ministry but for them to keep it for themselves to sell on the black market. The stolen food was replaced with cheap substitutes in the Ministry’s coffers. A third case was for officials to work with merchants to buy goods for double their price and split the difference. Authorities found several examples of each. Minister Sudani was discovered to have signed a contract with an export company owned by his son for $50 million worth of old tea that was only valued at $20 million. The Integrity Commission also had evidence that the Ministry was buying contaminated milk from China.  Investigators also found $8 million worth of expired food in a warehouse in Muthanna province. Finally, parliament claimed that Sudani’s brother and nephew got $40 in kickbacks from every ton of sugar imported by the Ministry. The result of all these crooked acts was that only half of Iraqis got what they were supposed to in their food rations, and would often complain of receiving rotten and unusable food stuffs.

On April 28, 2010 Sudani finally faced his day in court over the first of two major charges against him, corruption over food imports. The case was dropped however for lack of evidence. The Integrity Commission said it would appeal. Sudani still has a second court date over squandering public funds pending against him as well. That one may end like the first, as there have been charges of political interference by Maliki’s office, and one judge even resigned over it. 

Sudani’s example is just the latest in what often seems like Iraq’s futile fight against corruption. While the Integrity Commission announced an increase in convictions from 2008 to 2009, almost all of those sent to jail were low level officials like average policemen. Last year, only four senior officials were punished for their crimes, and only two the year before that. In the Trade Ministry case only three people have been convicted. The Director General of the Foodstuffs Trading Company was given one year for stealing money and taking kickbacks, the ministry spokesman was given one year, and the Director General’s deputy was given two years in prison for one of the largest corruption cases in Iraq’s recent history. The story reveals all of the raw nepotism and political cronyism that are rampant within the country, which prevents the efficient running of government, the provision of services, and the rule of law. Until Iraq’s elite gives more than lip service to being opposed to these practices, the country is going to be mired in more cases of fraud and embezzlement in the future.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “Iraq court acquits former Trade Minister,” 4/29/10

Antelava, Natalia, “Iraq arrests minister’s brother,” BBC News, 5/9/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “Ex-trade minister appears before Samawa court on corruption charges,” 6/1/09
- “Lawmaker says trade minister misled authorities, violated the law,” 5/17/09
- “Pressures block questioning some ministers – MP,” 4/18/09

Bakri, Nada, “In Iraq, Assertive Parliament Emerges Under New Speaker,” Washington Post, 5/27/09

Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, And Labor, “2009 Human Rights Report: Iraq,” U.S. State Department, 3/11/10

Colvin, Marie, “Iraq’s trade ministry hit by £2.6 billion fraud,” Sunday Times of London, 3/7/10

Dagher, Sam, “Gunfight Breaks Out as Iraqi Soldiers Try to Arrest Trade Officials,” New York Times, 5/3/09

Dolan, Jack and Hammoudi, Laith, “Iraq’s disgraced trade minister expected to step down,” McClatchy Newspapers, 5/23/09

Dow Jones, “Iraqi Trade Officials Ousted In Corruption Sweep – Sources,” 5/6/09

Al Jeeran, “The Integritiy Committee in the Iraqi parliament warns of intervention in the case of Minister of Commerce accused of corruption,” 12/5/09

Kadhim, Abbas, “Iraq’s Quest for Democracy amid Massive Corruption,” Arab Reform Bulletin, 3/3/10

Rasheed, Ahmed and Ibrahim, Waleed, “Iraq issues warrants for trade chiefs over corruption,” Reuters, 5/3/09

Reuters, “Iraqi trade officials jailed for corruption,” 12/24/09

Transparency International, “Corruption Perceptions Index 2009,” 11/17/09

Iraq May Run Into Electricity Problems This Summer

In April 2010 two separate power lines were attacked and knocked out of service. One was from the Baiji power plant in Salahaddin province that resulted in the loss of 200 megawatts of electricity, and left parts of Baghdad in darkness. Earlier in the month another undisclosed line was also hit. Insurgents and criminals target the power lines to either undermine the government or to steal the copper to sell for money. This was the last reported attack in quite some time however.

The Electricity Ministry announced that even without the recent incidents the nation’s power supply was down. Fuel shortages led to two power plants shutting down for a period, cutting off 300 megawatts. Another 180 megawatts were lost for other reasons.

Overall, the Electricity Ministry has big plans this year that may run into problems. On the positive side, the Finance Ministry said that it had raised $2.1 billion from local banks to fund electricity projects this year. That will go to help finance the installation of eight General Electric power plants in Taji in Salahaddin, Karbala, and Hilla in Babil by the end of the year. The Electricity Ministry is also going to add units in Baghdad’s Rasheed, Maysan’s Amara, Najaf, and two in Basra this year as well. On the other hand, officials in the Ministry warned that not all of these projects may come to fruition. Three difficulties are that not all of the companies have actually committed to these plans, the government doesn’t provide a constant supply of fuel to run the power plants, and there is a lack of parts, equipment, and maintenance.

Since the 2003 invasion Iraq’s power output has seen a steady increase, thanks largely to a huge investment by the United States. At the same time Iraqis went on a buying spree of consumer products, and still have large subsidies so power usage went up just as fast. As reported before, Iraq’s power output was down for the 4th quarter of 2009, the first drop since the start of 2008. Overall, the average Iraqi still does not have a steady supply of power, forcing many to buy a generator or purchase electricity from someone that does. The government is trying to address this issue in 2010, but the simple purchase of new generators may not be enough because of the problems outlined above. Better planning, maintenance, and supplies are also needed, but it’s unclear whether the Ministry has this capacity right now. That could mean a continuation of the supply and demand gap into the immediate future.

SOURCES

AK News, “Discords over power promises,” 4/3/10

Department of Defense, “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq,” 2/15/10

Iraq-Business News, “Iraq Raises $2.1bn to Fund Electricity Projects,” 3/21/10

Saleh Khayoun, “More attacks reported against power infrastructure in Iraq,” Azzaman, 4/16/10

Iraq Attempts To Meet Its Housing Shortage

As noted before, in 2010 the Iraqi government set about a massive building campaign. On April 4, the Housing Ministry announced that it wanted to solve the country’s housing crisis by 2014 through a mix of foreign and public investment. The Minister said that April and May would see 16 new projects start for housing, and an increase in the Housing Fund that was created in May 2009 that will assist with financing the construction. The Ministry has plans to start 27 housing complexes throughout Iraq with more than 504 units per compound. On April 16, the Iraqi National Investment Committee said that it plans to build 1 million housing units within the next five years relying upon Italian and French companies. If both of these projects were completed it would go a long way to meet all of the housing demand in the country, which is said to stand around 1.5 million houses, according to a 2009 study by the United Nations Human Settlements Program.

Just this month for example, four new projects were announced in four separate provinces to add an additional 8,200 units. On April 5, the Muthanna provincial council’s Investment Commission gave two permits to local investors for a residential and market complex that will include 2,000 units at a cost of 2.934 million Iraqi dinars that is to be finished in three years. On April 12, Basra’s Investment Commission announced a project to build 552 houses in the Faw district in the southern half of the governorate that will include stores and a theme park. Two days later, an Iraqi investor was given a license to build 700 houses and 350 stores in southern Qadisiyah at a cost of $21.24 million in the next 36 months. Finally, on April 19 a Canadian firm invested $299 million into a 5,000 unit apartment complex in Baghdad that will house up to 20,000 people. 

Iraq witnessed massive internal and external displacement in the last several decades before and after the fall of Saddam. Millions lost their homes and were forced to move. The housing shortage also led to an unregulated subdivision of homes that has greatly increased overcrowding in Iraq’s cities. The government is finally attempting to address this long standing issue with its housing plan that started at the beginning of this year. If it’s able to build all one million units, it may just address all the needs of the public. A keen eye will have to be kept on the threat of corruption, quality of work, and whether projects are completed however, to determine whether this is a success or just words from the authorities.

SOURCES

AK News, “Housing crisis in Iraq expected to end by 2014,” 4/4/10
- “International investment companies to build one million housing units in Iraq,” 4/16/10

Aswat al-Iraq, “2 investment permits to build residential city, markets in Muthanna,” 4/5/10
- “$21 million residential compound in Diwaniya,” 4/14/10
- “552 housing units to be built in Basra’s Faw,” 4/12/10
- “Canadian firm to invest in 5,000 housing units in Baghdad,” 4/19/10

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