Iraq’s Oil Exports Up In Feb, Revenue Down

(Bloomberg)

Iraq’s oil exports increased in February 2020, but its revenues fell as oil prices took a hit from disruptions in the world economy.

In February, Iraq exported an average of 3.391 million barrels a day (mbd). That was up from January’s 3.306 mbd. That was below 2019’s average of 3.5 mbd because Iraq has been cutting its oil production to try to comply with OPEC quotas, but it is still over its limit. Iraq has never followed any of the plans of OPEC to raise prices because almost all of its revenue comes from petroleum, and it hopes to surpass Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest producer.

Despite the rise in sales Iraq made less money. In February, a barrel of Iraqi crude went for $51.37 down from January’s $60.14. Oil prices overall saw a decline in 2019, but the fear of the coronavirus has hit the global economy including the petroleum business. That meant Iraq made $5.053 billion in February compared to $6.164 billion in January. That was the lowest profits since September 2017 when Iraq made $4.882 billion. The drop in revenues has not affected Iraq yet because the budget is stuck with the government crisis continuing over selecting a new prime minister. Even then, it’s parliament has consistently passed larger and larger spending bills to ensure the ruling parties stay in power. They use the state to run patronage networks to maintain their support, mainly by creating more government jobs. They also steal billions in different schemes to enrich themselves. Those factors have mitigated any fiscal responsibility. It’s only when oil prices collapse that Baghdad has ever trimmed its spending.

Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2014-2019

Month	Avg Export (Mil)	Avg Price	Earnings (Bil)
2014 Totals	2.517	$92.39	$7.017
2015 Totals	3.003	$44.81	$4.094
2016 Totals	3.302	-	$3.625
Jan 2017	3.321	-	$5.002
Feb	3.270	-	$4.514
Mar	3.258	$47.18	$4.766
Apr	3.253	$47.27	$4.607
May	3.261	$47	$4.623
Jun	3.273	$42.07	$4.144
Jul	3.230	$43.80	$4.386
Aug	3.216	-	$4.608
Sep	3.24	-	$4.882
Oct	3.346	$52.59	$5.456
Nov	3.502	$59.19	$6.021
Dec	3.535	$59.35	$6.504
2017 Totals	3.309	-	$4.959
Jan 2018	3.490	$63.29	$6.847
Feb	3.426	$60.14	$5.770
Mar	3.453	$59.95	$6.418
Apr	3.340	$64.60	$6.502
May	3.489	$69.80	$7.551
Jun	3.521	$69.32	$7.323
Jul	3.544	$69.16	$7.532
Aug	3.583	$69.65	$7.735
Sep	3.56	$74.15	$7.919
Oct	3.478	$73.38	$7.908
Nov	3.377	$61.09	$6.195
Dec	3.726	$52.80	$6.234
2018 Totals	3.498	$65.61	$6.953
Jan 2019	3.649	$56.15	$6.367
Feb	3.621	$60.83	$6.179
Mar	3.377	$63.80	$6.709
Apr	3.466	$67.41	$7.021
May	3.572	$66.68	$7.329
Jun	3.52	$60.58	$6.372
Jul	3.566	$61.15	$6.692
Aug	3.603	$57.41	$6.413
Sep	3.576	$59.14	$6.321
Oct	3.447	$57.15	$6.121
Nov	3.5	$59.82	$6.282
Dec	3.428	$63.05	$6.7
2019 Totals	3.527	$61.09	$6.543
Jan 2020	3.306	$60.14	$6.164
Feb	3.391	$51.37	$5.053

SOURCES

Lando, Ben, “Iraq oil export rebound undercut by depleting oil price,” Iraq Oil Report, 3/2/20

Saadi, Dania and Al-Khayat, Faleh, “Iraq’s federal oil exports rise 3.3% on higher flows from southern terminals,” S&P Global, 3/1/20