Security incidents in Iraq hit an all time low in February 2022. The Islamic State was already winding down its operations since September. That combined with the death of its leader Abu Ibrahim al-Qurayshi during the month seems to have led the group into a tailspin with the fewest ever incidents during any month since 2003. At the same time pro-Iran groups appeared to be focused upon their political dispute with Moqtada al-Sadr over forming a new government and carried out fewer attacks upon American targets as a result.
There were only 42 incidents recorded in Iraq in February, the fewest ever counted by Musings On Iraq. In January there were 87 incidents and 78 in December.
There were just 11 incidents by pro-Iran groups in February. Almost all of those were bombings of convoys employed by the U.S. in Anbar (1), Babil (1), Dhi Qar (2), Diwaniya (2), Muthanna (1) and Salahaddin (2). Three IEDs were dismantled in Muthanna. Rockets were also fired at a Turkish base in Ninewa which has been a popular target lately. There was one case of political violence when grenades were thrown at Taqadum offices in Anbar. That’s the party of Speaker of Parliament Mohammed al-Halbusi who is aligned with Moqtada al-Sadr who wants to exclude some parties aligned with Iran from the next government. In January there was a high of 31 incidents by these factions. Creating the next administration seems to be the focus of these groups leading to a decline in their attacks.
There were only 28 incidents by the Islamic State in February. Its attacks have been declining for five months straight. In August there were a 103 when the group was finishing its annual summer offensive. Since than there have been 70 incidents in September, 65 in October, 55 in November and December each, and 46 in January. This was the lowest monthly total ever in Iraq.
Incidents either stayed the same or dropped in Anbar, Babil, Baghdad, Diyala, Kirkuk and Salahaddin from January to February. Ninewa was the only province to see an increase from 4 incidents in January to 7 in February.
More importantly almost all the attacks were defensive in nature to keep the public and the security forces out of IS areas. There were only five offensive incidents during the month. That included an IED on Hashd in Babil’s Jurf al-Sakhr district, a bombing of a café in central Diyala, sniper fire at Peshmerga in Irbil, a grenade thrown at the house of an Asayesh in Kirkuk, and bombs dismantled around a power tower in Salahaddin.
This has been the longest period of the insurgency being dormant since 2003. IS routinely winds down its operations during the winter but this is much different. It’s not just the number of incidents, but also the fact that they are almost all defensive and almost all in rural areas. That means the militants are no longer really effecting Iraq because they are only active in sparely populated regions. This could be a major turning point towards the group’s decline. The next important event will be when IS selects a new leader. If the situation doesn’t change the Islamic State could finally be on its way out.
Security Incidents In Iraq By Province
|
Province |
Feb 1-7 |
Feb 8-14 |
Feb 15-21 |
Feb 22-28 |
Totals |
|
Anbar |
- |
2 |
1 Pro-Iran |
2/1 Pro-Iran |
5/2 Pro-Iran |
|
Babil |
- |
1 |
- |
1 Pro-Iran |
2/1 Pro-Iran |
|
Dhi Qar |
1 Pro-Iran |
- |
- |
1 Pro-Iran |
2 Pro-Iran |
|
Diwaniya |
1 Pro-Iran |
1 Pro-Iran |
- |
- |
2 Pro-Iran |
|
Diyala |
1 |
4 |
4 |
- |
9 |
|
Irbil |
1 |
- |
- |
- |
1 |
|
Kirkuk |
- |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
|
Muthanna |
- |
3 Pro-Iran |
- |
- |
4 Pro-Iran |
|
Ninewa |
4/1Pro-Iran |
- |
2 |
2 |
8/1 Pro-Iran |
|
Salahaddin |
3 |
2 Pro-Iran |
1 |
- |
6/2 Pro-Iran |
|
TOTAL |
11/3 Pro-Iran |
14/6 Pro-Iran |
9/1 Pro-Iran |
8/4 Pro-Iran |
42/14 Pro-Iran |
Casualties In Iraq By Province
|
Province |
Feb 1-7 |
Feb 8-14 |
Feb 15-21 |
Feb 22-28 |
Totals |
|
Anbar |
- |
7 (7K) |
- |
1 (1K0 |
8 (8K) |
|
Babil |
- |
2 (2W) |
- |
- |
2 (2W) |
|
Diyala |
4 (4W) |
2 (1K, 1W) |
7 (7W) |
- |
13 (1K, 12W) |
|
Irbil |
3(3W) |
- |
- |
- |
3 (3W) |
|
Kirkuk |
- |
- |
1 (1W) |
4 (4W) |
5 (5W) |
|
Ninewa |
3 (3W) |
- |
3 (3W) |
1 (1W) |
7 (7W) |
|
Salahaddin |
1 (1K) |
- |
- |
- |
1 (1K) |
|
TOTAL |
11 (1K, 10W) |
11 (8K, 3W) |
11 (11W) |
6 (1K, 5W) |
39 (10K, 29W) |
Attacks by Pro-Iran Groups
|
1/2/22 |
Rockets – Turkish army base, Ninewa |
|
1/3/22 |
2 Drones shot down – Baghdad International Airport |
|
1/4/22 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad |
|
|
Drone shot down – Ain al-Asad Base, Anbar |
|
1/5/22 |
Rockets – Camp Victory, Baghdad |
|
|
Rockets – Ain al-Asad Base, Anbar |
|
|
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Muthanna, Babil |
|
1/6/22 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil |
|
1/9/22 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil, Baghdad x2, Muthanna, Salahaddin |
|
|
IED dismantled – Baghdad, Dhi Qar, Diwaniya, Muthanna |
|
1/11/22 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad x2, Muthanna |
|
|
IED Dismantled - Babil |
|
1/12/22 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil |
|
1/13/22 |
Rockets – Green Zone – 3 Wounded |
|
|
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US - Baghdad |
|
|
IED on KDP offices - Baghdad |
|
|
IED dismantled – Dhi Qar |
|
1/14/22 |
Assassination attempt on KDP official - Baghdad |
|
|
Grenades - Taqadum and Azm offices - Baghdad |
|
1/15/22 |
Rockets – Turkish army base, Ninewa |
|
|
Rockets – Turkish army base, Ninewa |
|
|
Drones shot down – Balad Air Base, Salahaddin |
|
1/16/22 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US - Basra |
|
|
IEDs on Cihan Bank and Kurdistan Bank, Baghdad |
|
1/19/22 |
IED 2nd Dep Speaker’s office - Kirkuk |
|
1/23/22 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US - Babil |
|
1/26/22 |
Rockets – Speaker Halbusi’s House, Anbar |
|
|
Molotov cocktail – Sadr office, Baghdad |
|
1/28/22 |
Rockets – Baghdad International Airport |
|
1/30/22 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar, Muthanna |
|
|
January Totals 31 (9) – 3 Wounded |
|
2/1/22 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar |
|
2/3/22 |
Rockets – Turkish army base, Ninewa |
|
2/6/22 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Diwaniya |
|
2/8/22 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Diwaniya |
|
2/9/22 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Muthanna |
|
2/10/22 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Salahaddin |
|
2/13/22 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Salahaddin |
|
|
2 IEDs dismantled – Muthanna |
|
2/19/22 |
Grenade – Taqadum office, Anbar |
|
2/22/22 |
IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Anbar, Babil, Dhi Qar |
|
|
IED dismantled – Muthanna |
|
|
February Totals 11 (3) |
Security In Iraq 2021-22
|
Week |
Security Incidents (Total/By IS) |
Dead (Total/By IS) |
Wounded (Total/By IS) |
|
Jan 1-7 |
21/2 |
13 |
19 |
|
Jan 8-14 |
17/3 |
12 |
6 |
|
Jan 15-21 |
20/3 |
52 |
133 |
|
Jan 22-28 |
10/3 |
13 |
12 |
|
Jan 29-31 |
9/1 |
2 |
6 |
|
JAN |
77/13 |
92 |
176 |
|
Feb 1-7 |
19/2 |
11 |
23 |
|
Feb 8-14 |
11/3 |
4 |
8 |
|
Feb 15-21 |
20/7 |
11 |
23 |
|
Feb 22-28 |
13/4 |
13 |
23 |
|
FEB |
63/16 |
39 |
77 |
|
Mar 1-7 |
19/5 |
5 |
8 |
|
Mar 8-14 |
12/2 |
13 |
15 |
|
Mar 15-21 |
24/6 |
8 |
7 |
|
Mar 22-28 |
14/2 |
8 |
13 |
|
Mar 29-31 |
9/5 |
2 |
1 |
|
MAR |
79/20 |
39 |
44 |
|
Apr 1-7 |
16/10 |
3 |
5 |
|
Apr 8-14 |
15/6 |
6 |
18 |
|
Apr 15-21 |
32/4 |
19 |
44 |
|
Apr 22-28 |
31/6 |
15 |
42 |
|
Apr 29-30 |
12/1 |
11 |
23 |
|
APR |
107/27 |
54 |
132 |
|
May 1-7 |
36/8 |
33 |
37 |
|
May 8-14 |
31/5 |
14 |
25 |
|
May 15-21 |
15/2 |
3 |
3 |
|
May 22-28 |
20/9 |
3 |
24 |
|
May 29-31 |
11 |
6 |
11 |
|
MAY |
113/24 |
59 |
100 |
|
Jun 1-7 |
12/5 |
6 |
29 |
|
Jun 8-14 |
22/10 |
7 |
7 |
|
Jun 15-21 |
24/4 |
14 |
14 |
|
Jun 22-28 |
19/2 |
10 |
17 |
|
Jun 29-30 |
5 |
- |
21 |
|
JUN |
83/21 |
36 |
87 |
|
Jul 1-7 |
38/9 |
11 |
35 |
|
Jul 8-14 |
25/4 |
7 |
17 |
|
Jul 15-21 |
20/1 |
48 |
75 |
|
Jul 22-28 |
10/1 |
10 |
7 |
|
Jul 29-31 |
16/5 |
30 |
30 |
|
JUL |
110/20 |
106 |
164 |
|
Aug 1-7 |
44/5 |
12 |
19 |
|
Aug 8-14 |
31/6 |
17 |
23 |
|
Aug 15-21 |
25/8 |
12 |
18 |
|
Aug 22-28 |
21/9 |
8 |
10 |
|
Aug 29-31 |
12/2 |
5 |
12 |
|
AUG |
133/30 |
54 |
82 |
|
Sep 1-7 |
21/3 |
12 |
24 |
|
Sep 8-14 |
28/3 |
24 |
36 |
|
Sep 15-21 |
13/1 |
5 |
17 |
|
Sep 22-28 |
17/4 |
13 |
9 |
|
Sep 29-30 |
2 |
- |
- |
|
SEP |
81/11 |
54 |
86 |
|
Oct 1-7 |
17 |
11 |
22 |
|
Oct 8-14 |
14/1 |
4 |
13 |
|
Oct 15-21 |
9/2 |
3 |
2 |
|
Oct 22-28 |
21/1/1 |
36 |
42 |
|
Oct 29-31 |
11/1 |
7 |
7 |
|
OCT |
72/6/1 |
61 |
86 |
|
Nov 1-7 |
20/2 |
3 |
20 |
|
Nov 8-14 |
15/1 |
11 |
18 |
|
Nov 15-21 |
14/4 |
2 |
4 |
|
Nov 22-28 |
15/4 |
10 |
14 |
|
Nov 29-30 |
3/1 |
1 |
3 |
|
NOV |
67/12 |
27 |
59 |
|
Dec 1-7 |
17/2 |
29 |
22 |
|
Dec 8-14 |
14/4 |
4 |
6 |
|
Dec 15-21 |
22/8 |
11 |
12 |
|
Dec 22-28 |
18/8 |
11 |
27 |
|
Dec 29-31 |
7/1 |
5 |
4 |
|
DEC |
78/23 |
56 |
67 |
|
Jan 1-7, 2022 |
18/9 |
3 |
4 |
|
Jan 8-14 |
35/21 |
3 |
18 |
|
Jan 15-21 |
12/5 |
17 |
12 |
|
Jan 22-28 |
16/3 |
8 |
19 |
|
Jan 29-31 |
6/2 |
2 |
6 |
|
JAN |
87/41 |
33 |
59 |
|
Feb 1-7 |
11/3 |
1 |
10 |
|
Feb 8-14 |
14/6 |
8 |
3 |
|
Feb 15-21 |
9/1 |
- |
11 |
|
Feb 22-28 |
8/4 |
1 |
5 |
|
FEB |
42/14 |
10 |
29 |
Violence By Province Feb, 2022
|
Province |
Violence |
2018 Avg |
2019 Avg |
2020 Avg |
2021 Avg |
|
Anbar |
5/2 Pro-Iran Incidents 8 Killed 2 Civilians 6 ISF
1 Shooting 4 IEDs |
12.6 incidents/ month |
8.6 incidents/ month |
7.0 incidents/ month |
4.6 incidents/ month |
|
Babil |
2/1 Pro-Iran Incident 2 Wounded 2 Hashd
2 IEDs |
4.0 incidents/month |
3.0 incidents/month |
2.75 incidents/month |
2.5 incidents/month |
|
Baghdad |
- |
33.0 incidents/month |
11.6 incidents/month |
7.3 incidents/month |
5.6 incidents/ month |
|
Diyala |
9 Incidents 1 Killed 1 Civilian 12 Wounded 3 Civilians 9 ISF
6 Shootings 3 IEDs |
34.5 incidents/month |
30.0 incidents/month |
30.6 incidents/month |
23.2 incidents/month |
|
Kirkuk |
3 Incidents 5 wounded 5 ISF
1 Shooting 1 IED 1 Grenade |
36.5 incidents/month |
18.6 incidents/month |
13.9 incidents/month |
11.6 incidents/month |
|
Ninewa |
8/1 Pro-Iran Incident 7 Wounded 3 ISF 4 Civilians
1 Shooting 5 IEDs 1 Mortar 1 Rockets |
20.0 incidents/month |
14.0 incidents/month |
10.6 incidents/month |
8.4 incidents/month |
|
Salahaddin |
6/2 Pro-Iran Incidents 1 Killed 1 Hashd
2 Shootings 5 IEDs |
21.7 incidents/month |
10.6 incidents/month |
11.2 incidents/month |
11.5 incidents/month |
SOURCES
Bas News, “Ahrar Sinjar Claims Responsibility for Rocket Attack on Turkish Base North of Iraq,” 2/3/22
- "Taqaddum Party Headquarters in Anbar Attacked with Grenade," 2/19/22
Iraq Newspaper, "Thwarting an attempt to target convoys of the International Coalition," 2/22/22
NINA, "Two members of the Popular Mobilization were injured in an explosive device explosion north of Babylon," 2/11/22
NRT, "Three Peshmerga Wounded In ISIS Attack In Qarachockh Mountains," 2/4/22
Shafaq News, "Explosion targeting a youth café in Diyala," 2/14/22
- "Unidentified persons attack the house of an Asayesh member with a grenade in Kirkuk," 2/11/22
Al Sumaria, "Intelligence thwarts the bombing of electric power towers in Salahaddin," 2/16/22
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