In June, IOM reported that there were 1,381,332 displaced in Iraq. That was down only 17,838 people from February. In 2020, there has been an average of 5,550 IDPs going back each month versus 32,350 per month in 2019 and 67,763 per month in 2018. There are simply fewer and fewer reasons for IDPs to go back. Many postwar areas for instance are still not rebuilt. There are few jobs, and in some areas like central and northeast Diyala the Islamic State is driving people out to control rural areas. Many people that were the first to be displaced when the war against the Islamic State started in 2014 have also settled in the provinces they moved into. Finally, families affiliated with the Islamic State have been banned from many areas. A parliamentarian from Salahaddin for instance, said in July that IS families that had not repented would not allowed back to the province.
These issues haven’t stopped the government from consistently saying it wants to close the displaced file. In June Prime Minister Mustafa Kazemi issued an order to help IDPs returned, and in July the Displacement Minister said he wanted the issue to be over. The authorities have begun closing some camps as a result. This comes with little to no support. The government for instance has no rebuilding program for the postwar areas. It’s also in the middle of the worst economic crisis since 2003 so it has no money even if wanted to take part in reconstruction.
The result is that the majority of the 1.3 million IDPs are likely to remain where they are for good. That’s the same thing that happened after the civil war when one million displaced and another one million refugees never returned because Baghdad had nothing to offer them.
Total Number of Displaced Oct
2017-February 2020
|
Month |
Total Displaced |
Difference |
|
October 2017 |
3,174,678 |
|
|
November 2017 |
2,883,738 |
-290,940 |
|
December 2017 |
2,615,988 |
-267,750 |
|
February 2018 |
2,317,698 |
-298,290 (2 months) |
|
March 2018 |
2,205,252 |
-112,446 |
|
May 2018 |
2,045,718 |
-159,534 (2 months) |
|
Jul 2018 |
1,953,984 |
-91,734 (2 months) |
|
August 2018 |
1,920,456 |
-33,528 |
|
October 2018 |
1,866,648 |
-53,808 (2 months) |
|
December 2018 |
1,802,832 |
-63,816 (2 months) |
|
February 2019 |
1,744,980 |
-57,852 (2 months) |
|
April 2019 |
1,665,108 |
-79,872 (2 months) |
|
June 2019 |
1,607,148 |
-57,960 (2 months) |
|
September 2019 |
1,552,914 |
-54,234 (3 months) |
|
December 2019 |
1,414,632 |
-138,282 (3 months) |
|
February 2020 |
1,399,170 |
-15,462 (2 months) |
|
June 2020 |
1,381,332 |
-17,838 (4 months) |
Avg 67,763 returns per month 2018
Avg 32,350 returns per month 2019
Avg 5,550 returns per month 2020
Main Provinces With Returns
|
Province |
June 2020 |
|
Ninewa |
1,807,170 |
|
Anbar |
1,503,468 |
|
Salahaddin |
692,142 |
|
Kirkuk |
341,106 |
|
Diyala |
230,244 |
|
Baghdad |
90,228 |
|
Irbil |
53,004 |
|
Dohuk |
768 |
Location of Displaced By Province
|
Province |
Feb 2020 |
|
Ninewa |
324,078 |
|
Dohuk |
319,062 |
|
Irbil |
236,496 |
|
Sulaymaniya |
139,860 |
|
Kirkuk |
100,026 |
|
Salahaddin |
68,700 |
|
Diyala |
53,688 |
|
Anbar |
36,162 |
|
Baghdad |
35,034 |
|
Babil |
17,004 |
|
Karbala |
15,558 |
|
Najaf |
12,546 |
|
Wasit |
6,084 |
|
Basra |
6,528 |
|
Qadisiya |
3,888 |
|
Dhi Qar |
3,396 |
|
Maysan |
2,226 |
|
Muthanna |
996 |
SOURCES
Halawa, Hafsa, “The Forgotten Iraq,” Middle East Institute, March 2020
International Organization for Migration, “Iraq Master List Report 116, May-June 2020,” July 2020
Al Maalomah, “Deputy: The local government in Salahaddin has taken measures to prevent the return of ISIS families to the liberated areas,” 7/14/20
Al Mada, “Migration Ministry implements a program for the voluntary return of displaced persons,” 7/2/20
Al Mirbad, “A government directive to facilitate the return of IDPs to their areas of origin,” 6/10/20
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