On December 9, 2017, Prime Minister Haidar Abadi declared victory over the Islamic State in Iraq. The group was already organizing for a comeback at that moment. From 2018-2022 it seemed like IS was succeeding. It was carrying out a steady pace of attacks including its annual offensives. It drove out thousands of people from rural villages in several provinces to establish bases. It was bringing in men and material from Syria. In 2023 everything fell apart. This is the story of how the Islamic State’s attempted comeback failed.
Even before the war with the Islamic State was over the group’s leadership was talking about surviving to fight another day. IS spokesman Abu Mohammed al-Adnani gave a speech in May 2016 going over the history of the group and how it had faced setbacks before. He said losing territory was just a stage and not a defeat. These themes would be repeated by other members and outlets over the following years. IS was hoping that it could rebound once again like it did after the U.S. Surge in 2007.
At the start of 2018 there were stories of the insurgency rebuilding. The main effort was driving people out of rural villages in Diyala’s Khanaqin district in the northeast, the Muqdadiya district in the center, and along the Salahaddin border in the west, the Daquq district in the southeast and the Dibs district in north Kirkuk, the Baaj district in the west and the Makhmour district in northeast Ninewa, and the Makhmoul Mountains in Salahaddin to gain territory to operate out of. On January 10, 2018, for instance, there was a story that five towns in Qara Tappa, Diyala had been abandoned due to the Islamic State. (1) A year later in January 2019 20 villages had been evacuated in Khanaqin. By July 2021 that had increased to 40 villages. In October 2019, the National Iraqi News Agency reported 15 villages along the Diyala-Salahaddin border were empty, and in November 2019 people were fleeing the Abu Saida subdistrict in Muqdadiya. (2) In August 2018, NRT reported that people were fleeing villages in Daquq after some homes were burned and people kidnapped. In August 2021 a mayor told the media that 45 villages were abandoned in the district. January 7, 2019, Bas News had a report that Kurds from Taq Taq in Dibs fled due to IS attacks and threats. By the end of August 2020 20 Kurdish villages were empty in the district. April 22, 2019, Al Mada was told 30 villages in Ninewa’s Baaj had been abandoned. May 23, 2022, 38 Kurdish villages were reported empty in Ninewa’s Makhmour district. February 15, 2022, the Iraqi Security Forces ordered around 400 families out of 5 villages in the Makhmoul Mountains in Salahaddin because of the insurgency. This resulted in thousands of people losing their homes as large swaths of rural and mountainous regions in central Iraq were emptied giving the militants freedom of movement.
Another major effort was bringing in men from Syria where the Islamic State had most of its forces. An Anbar councilman told Al Maalomah in January 2018 that IS was infiltrating people through the desert regions of the province from Syria. There were similar efforts in western Ninewa.
Third, the militants worked to eliminate local leaders like mayors and sheikhs. In March 2018 for instance, IS killed a sheikh from the Jabour tribe and his son in south Ninewa and then the next day kidnapped another sheikh and his children.
By 2020 there were a slew of stories that the Islamic State was well on its way to making a comeback in Iraq. In July 2020 The Center for Intelligence on Terrorist Groups issued a paper that IS was focused upon intimidating locals and preserving its leadership. It said that IS had around 10,000 members in Iraq and Syria and had an estimated $100 million in its treasury. The Center for Global Policy had a report in August 2020 that IS was rebuilding in northern Diyala, southeastern Salahaddin and southern Kirkuk. It was cutting off roads and setting up camps and forced people out of dozens of villages.
All this progress was reversed by 2023. What happened? First, the Islamic State was not able to recruit a sizeable amount of new followers in Iraq. The war devastated the Sunni community. The Iraqi forces cleansed certain areas of Sunnis and carried out revenge attacks. The cost of supporting the insurgency now far outweighs the benefits. This is the reason why it has focused upon smuggling people in from Syria because that’s where most of its followers are. Second, the group has not been able to rebuild its networks. There are no more attacks in Iraq’s cities for instance because the militants don’t have access to them anymore to move in weapons and explosives. Third, it’s leadership has been devastated. In February 2022 IS’s leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashemi al-Qurashi was killed in a U.S. raid in Syria. Then in August 2023 his successor Abu al-Hussein al-Qurashi died fighting another Islamic group in Syria. Other top members have been arrested or eliminated. Without a strong voice at the top the group has drifted.
That all leads to the present moment where the Islamic State has largely ceased to operate in Iraq. In 2023 there have been four weeks with no reported incidents by the insurgents. This is the first time this has happened since 2003. The group is holed up in isolated rural and mountainous areas where there are few people and no real government presence. The Iraq Joint Operations Command estimated it only has 500 members left in the country. This is a far cry from international reports that still has the group at several thousand followers in Iraq and Syria. More importantly the Islamic State no longer poses any real threat to Iraq and may finally be disappearing.
FOOTNOTES
1. Al Sumaria, “Daash ends life in five villages south of Qara Tappa and turns it into a desert,” 1/10/18
2. Baghdad Post, “For the second day in a row .. The displacement of the people of Abu Karma village in Diyala,” 11/15/19
SOURCES
Al Aalem, “Source: Rise in targeting tribal sheikhs of the Jabour … And activating its cells in south Ninewa,” 3/13/18
Aboulenein, Ahmed, “Islamic State makes comeback in Iraq with switch to guerrilla tactics,” Reuters, 7/24/18
Aldroubi, Mina, “ISIS announces new leader after terrorist chief killed in battle,” The National, 11/30/22
Ali, Amir, Otten, Cathy, Hussein, Mohammed, “Village evacuating as rising insurgency targets new territory,” Iraq Oil Report, 9/28/18
Ali, Sangar, “Villagers around Iraq’s Khanaqin, Jalawla evacuate as ISIS attacks increase,” Kurdistan 24, 1/18/19
Arab News, “Daesh confirms death of its leader, names his replacement,” 8/3/23
Baghdad Post, “15 families displaced from their village to Mosul,” 8/26/19
- “1,000 ISIS terrorists are still existing in Iraq: Commander,” 1/27/18
- “For the second day in a row .. The displacement of the people of Abu Karma village in Diyala,” 11/15/19
- “Government source: the growing activity of the terrorist organization of the north-east of Baquba, Diyala province,” 12/10/18
- “Nineveh’s ex-governor warns of ISIS regrouping in southwest of Mosul,” 3/27/18
- “Three hot areas in Diyala within the comprehensive security protection strategy,” 2/1/19
Bas News, “Approximately 500 IS Militants Remain in Iraq: Top General,” 9/28/23
- “IS Bombardments Kill One, Injure Another near Khanaqin,” 8/9/18
- “IS Military Activity on the Rise in Diyala: Official,” 4/6/18
- “Kurdish Village in Kirkuk Evacuated for IS Threat,” 1/7/19
- “Makhmour: IS Regrouping in Absence of Peshmerga,” 4/2/18
- “Nearly 45 Villages in Kirkuk Still Empty as IS Threat Continues,” 8/11/21
- “Over 20 Kurdish Villages in North of Kirkuk Vacated in Three Years,” 8/31/20
- “Over 5,000 Kurdish Families Flee Khanaqin in Four Years: Official,” 7/29/21
- “Seven More Villages in South of Kirkuk Vacated Due to IS Threats,” 6/19/21
Foltyn, Simona, “ISIS returns to Iraq, and a town confronts a new wave of terror,” PBS Newshour, 9/16/18
Al Ghad Press, “Qara Tappa calls for military reinforcements to prevent abductions by Daesh,” 1/21/18
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Al-Hashimi, Husham, “ISIS on the Iraqi-Syrian Border: Thriving Smuggling Networks,” Center for Global Policy, 6/16/20
- “ISIS Thrives in Iraq’s ‘Money and Death’ Triangle,” Center for Global Policy, 8/11/20
Hassan, Hassan, “Out of the Desert, ISIS’s Strategy For A Long War,” Middle East Institute, September 2018
Iraq Oil Report, “Northern Iraq reeling as IS regroups for insurgency,” 3/2/18
Jamal, Ranja, “’No man’s land’ between Peshmerga, Iraqi forces allows ISIS to linger,” Rudaw, 11/30/18
Kajjo, Sirwan, “US Military: IS Still Poses Threat in Iraq, Syria,” Voice of America, 10/25/18
Kurd Press, “Kurdish village in Khanaqin evacuated amid IS re-emergence,” 7/26/18
Lead Inspector General, “Operation Inherent Resolve, Lead Inspector General Report To The United States Congress, April 1, 2023-June 30, 2023,” August 2023
Loveluck, Louisa and Salim, Mustafa, “ISIS militants return to Iraq, continue fight,” Washington Post, 7/21/19
Al Maalomah, “Anbar: ISIS continues to pose a threat to the security and stability of the liberated areas,” 8/14/20
- “Anbar warns of Daash criminals infiltrating across the Syrian border into Iraq,” 1/17/18
- “Salahaddin Council reveals new moves by Daesh in Mount Hamrin,” 1/24/19
Al Mada, “50 squads belonging to Chechyan Daesh attacks villages in western Mosul,” 4/22/19
- “100 ISIS confusing security in eastern Diyala, taking advantage of the differences of military leaders,” 9/25/19
- “Daesh establish courts and detention cells and training camps in Makhoul,” 9/18/18
- “Double attack confuses the situation in Kirkuk: ISIS and white flags are accused of the incident,” 8/25/19
- “ISIS attacks abandon 50 villages in Hatra and dozens more in Diyala,” 12/23/19
- “Research center: ISIS has returned to the method of intimidation and street warfare,” 7/27/20
- “A series of mysterious fires consume 3,000 donums of agricultural land in five governorates,” 5/19/19
- “A village burns on the outskirts of Mosul as part of a plan to break into the city,” 5/18/19
Al Masalah, “Diyala: Our border with Salahaddin is still a direct security threat,” 2/3/18
Middle East Eye, “Baghdadi’s brother reportedly picked as new Islamic State leader,” 3/11/22
Mostafa, Mohamed, “50 families flee town in Iraqi Kurdistan fearing Islamic State threat,” Iraqi News, 8/15/19
- “Iraqi representative warns government of IS resurgence in Nineveh,” Iraqi News, 4/22/19
Muhammed, Hardi, “Fearing ISIS, Kurds abandon homes in southern Kirkuk,” 3/26/18
Naji, Jamal, Kullab, Samya, “Islamic State incursions highlight Iraq’s counter-insurgency challenges,” Iraq Oil Report, 11/15/18
NINA, “Local official in Diyala demands the clearing of agricultural land between Waqf Basin and Abu Saida,” 1/22/19
- “A Local Source In Diyala: Daesh Is Resuming Its Activity In Abandoned Villages Near Administrative Border With Salahuddin,” 11/11/18
- “A Local source in Diyala: Metaibijah and abandoned villages have become a haven for ISIS cells,” 10/22/19
NRT, “Fearing For Their Lives, More Kakayis Evacuate Villages In Southern Daquq,” 8/25/18
- “ISIS Leader Killed In US Special Forces Raid In Syria,” 2/3/22
Rudaw, “Diyala villagers flee spike in attacks by resurging Islamic State,” 12/3/19
- “ISIS insurgents move freely in disputed Kirkuk: locals,” 5/21/19
- “ISIS militants raid by night, hide during the day in Kirkuk,” 3/12/18
- “Khanaqin villagers flee their homes, fearing resurgent ISIS,” 12/13/18
- “Kurdish villages in Makhmour remain empty in fear of ISIS activities,” 5/23/22
Salem, Amr, “ISIS still commands between 5,000 and 7,000 members,” Iraqi News, 8/15/23
Shafaq News, “At the request of the security forces .. the displacement of residents of 5 villages north of Salahaddin due to security risks,” 2/15/22
- “Confirmation of what was published by Shafaq News .. 12 villages in Diyala threaten by displacement due to ISIS,” 6/22/22
- “Daash causes the evacuation of areas in south Kirkuk,” 4/11/18
- “Diyala official identifies factors to revive active Daesh cells,” 12/3/18
- “Human rights document forced displacement from the outskirts of the Khanaqin district due to ISIS,” 12/24/19
- “Iraqi farmers warn of the return of treachery raids and a remote village forced to flee,” 11/29/20
- “ISIS in Diyala between the flaming crossings and temporary dens,” 9/26/22
- “ISIS settles the void in the side of Baghdad,” 8/27/22
Sotaliraq, “Khanaqin records the displacement of 76 families within 40 days,” 11/16/19
Al Sumaria, “Daash ends life in five villages south of Qara Tappa and turns it into a desert,” 1/10/18
- “Director of Abu Saida area: Most of the villages in the south of the area are under the control of Daesh,” 1/23/19
Xinhua, “Spotlight: IS militants creep back in central Iraq months after gov’t declares victory,” 11/1/18
Zavis, Alexandra, “Iraq’s prime minister declares victory in war against Islamic State,” Los Angeles Times, 12/9/17
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