Analysts Say Impossible For Iraq To Reach Oil Production Goals

After Iraq successfully completed its second round of oil bids with international companies in December 2009, Iraqi officials were quick to announce a huge increase in production would occur in just a few years, which would help remedy Iraq’s problems. Oil Ministry Hussain al-Shahristani for example, said that Iraq could produce up to 12 million barrels a day in six years. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki claimed that the new oil revenue would pay for Iraq’s reconstruction and debts. While the new petroleum contracts promised 13.23 million barrels a day in capacity, which would make Iraq the largest oil producer in the world, experts do not think that this is possible.

Various analyses of Iraq’s current oil industry show that a huge influx of money from the new oil deals will result in a more modest increase in production than what the Oil Minister and others talked about. The World Bank for example, estimates that Iraq needs $1 billion in investment just to maintain its current production of around 2.4 million barrels a day because its ports, pipelines, etc. are so old and decrepit. To upgrade to 5 million barrels a day would cost as much as $30 billion over the next eight years. Observers think it’s just not physically and financially possible for Iraq to reach 10-12 million barrels a day in six years. Saudi Arabia for example, which has the capacity to produce that much, has spent the last 75 years developing its industry to achieve that level at the cost of hundreds of billions of dollars. That has occurred with a stable government, a unified oil strategy, no wars, and a working bureaucracy, all things that Iraq lacks.

Oil experts think that the Oil Minister and Prime Minister’s statements were political in nature, rather than about what Iraq is actually capable of achieving. That would be understandable since the first bidding round held in June 2009 was considered a failure when only one contract was agreed to. The second round garnered seven deals, and the government considered it a sign that Iraq was returning to its once prominent status in the world oil market after thirty years of war and sanctions.

Many believe that the major impact of the new oil deals inked by Baghdad will be the updating and modernization of the country’s aging and deteriorating infrastructure rather than a revolution in the industry.  Iraq’s petroleum sector has suffered from decades of neglect because it couldn’t improve on its facilities due to the Iran-Iraq War, the Gulf War, the resulting United Nations sanctions, and then the aftermath of the U.S. invasion in 2003, which included insurgent attacks upon pipelines. Iraq lacks the capacity as well to increase production much above what it is currently making. Hopefully the foreign companies will be able to repair equipment and provide a more modest increase in output in the coming years than what the government has been talking about. This will help improve services and perhaps development as well since Iraq has a state-run economy that depends upon oil for over 80% of its funds.

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “Oil revenues optimization would solve Iraq’s problems – Maliki,” 2/28/10

BBC, “Iraq oil capacity ‘to reach 12m barrels per day,’” 12/12/09

Gerson Lehrman Group, “Iraq’s Oil Infrastructure Defies Political Rhetoric,” 3/19/10

Shekhar, Shashank, “Iraq unlikely to meet oil target,” Emirates Business, 3/4/10

New Examples Of Corruption In Iraq

Stories of corruption continue to trickle out of Iraq. Some of them are of low-level graft such as police taking bribes, but others are far more serious such as manipulating the food ration system run by the Trade Ministry. The anti-corruption agencies are overwhelmed by their work, and have made little headway in this battle.

First, there is common, ever day corruption. Al Rafidayn reported that border guards were charging up to $1,500 for trucks with produce to enter the country. In 2009 the Agriculture Ministry imposed a $3,000 tariff on farm imports, but it was later dropped. The border forces however, are still collecting a fee, and pocketing the money for themselves. Rafidayn reported that some trucks were held up at the border for days until they paid the guards. A common way to become a border guard or regular police officer is to pay a bribe. That could be up to $5,000. Other common services also require a payoff. A car license for example, could cost up to $3,000. The pocketing of money can go up to elected officials as well. On March 18 for example, the Board of Supreme Audit, an anti-corruption agency that looks into finances, said that the Salahaddin provincial council had been stealing money from the local government. 

Then there are more serious examples of institutionalized corruption. The Trade Ministry is a perfect example. In May 2009 the Trade Minister resigned. He, along with his two brothers and nephew were all accused of taking kickbacks and embezzling money. The Trade Minister was in control of the country’s $5.3 billion food ration system, the largest in the world. The Ministry was also in charge of importing grain, seeds, and construction materials, all ripe for graft. The trouble with the Ministry began when $8 million worth of expired products were found in a warehouse in Muthanna that were meant for the food ration system. Later arrest warrants were issued for the Minister and his family members. Afterward more and more stories of his nefarious activities emerged. Documents were found showing that $4 billion was missing from the Ministry in 2009, and it could go as high as $8 billion over four years. This was due to a number of scams officials were pulling. One was buying contaminated milk from China. This was part of plot where officials would buy old food for cheap and charge the ministry full price and keep the difference. Another was where employees would buy food and then keep it for themselves to be sold on the black market. The stolen food was replaced with cheap substitutes. Yet another was where the Ministry worked with merchants to buy products for twice their price, and then split the difference. An investigation by parliament found that only half of those eligible for their food rations were getting them in full as a result of the corruption within the Trade Ministry.

The anti-corruption committee in the legislature was also looking into allegations against the Interior and Defense Ministries. There are stories that the Defense Ministry took bribes as part of contracts to buy foreign aircraft. The parliament is also looking into how Interior bought bomb detecting wands from a British company for $85 million that don’t work, and were priced far above their going rate.

Iraq’s anti-corruption agencies claim that they are working to combat this massive problem within the Iraqi government, but they are making little headway. The Public Integrity Commission reported that they had issued 433 arrest warrants for alleged acts of corruption from January to February 2010. If warrants continued to be handed out at that rate, the Commission would surpass its 2009 mark of 972. The issue is that those arrests only led to 285 convictions last year, and almost all of those were small time cases like policemen taking bribes. There are also institutional barriers to follow up on investigations. One is that ministers and other top officials can stop cases. Some of the high profiles examples of this were the Labor Minister in 2006, the assistant commander of the Air Force and head of the Electricity Minister’s office in 2007, and the Minister of Transportation in 2008 who were all exempted from arrest and having to go to court. Even more frustrating for the anti-corruption agencies is the fact that the 2008 Amnesty Law that was supposed to help with reconciliation has a clause in it that covers graft and fraud. This led to 1,552 cases being dropped in 2009. 48 cases from the Ministry of Trade, 145 cases from the Ministry of Defense, and 528 cases from the Ministry of Interior were all exempted by this law last year.

Iraq faces corruption from the street level all the way up to the highest levels of government. Iraqis can run into it when they go to the authorities for services or a job, or they can unknowingly be affected by it when they don’t get their full food rations. People’s lives can even be put at risk because of it when the government overpays for bomb detectors that don’t work. The problem is so pervasive and institutionalized it’s no wonder that Iraq has consistently been ranked one of the most corrupt countries in the world the last several years. As long as the major parties that run the ministries are profiting from the graft it’s unlikely that those in power will ever put much effort into fighting it. The Trade Minister for instance, was a member of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Dawa Party. He refused to act on the case until it became such a public scandal that he had no choice. That means the public will continue to suffer for it, and the country, which desperately needs as much money as possible to pay for reconstruction, will have billions wasted as a result.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq watchdog charges 356 with corruption,” 3/17/10

Aswat al-Iraq, “Financial irregularities uncovered in Salah al-Din council,” 3/18/10
- “Pressures block questioning some ministers – MP,” 4/18/09

Colvin, Marie, “Iraq’s trade ministry hit by £2.6 billion fraud,” Sunday Times of London, 3/7/10

Commission of Integrity, “Annual report for 2008,” December 2009

Dagher, Sam, “Gunfight Breaks Out as Iraqi Soldiers Try to Arrest Trade Officials,” New York Times, 5/3/09

Economist, “No promised land at the end of all this,” 3/4/10

Al Rafidayn, “Iraq: Customs Officials Demand Big Bribes to Let Trucks Enter Country,” MEMRI Blog, 3/15/10

Reuters, “Iraq Trade Minister Resigns Over Corruption Scandal,” 5/25/09

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 1/30/10

New Estimate Of Winners And Losers In Iraq’s Election

McClatchy Newspapers’ Inside Iraq Blog has a new estimate of the seat distribution in Iraq’s parliament. So far 89% of the polling stations have had their votes tallied, along with 70% of the special voting that occurred a few days before. The Iraqi Election Commission has still not gone through the ballots cast by the Iraqi security forces or finished with overseas voting either.

After the Election Commission is done, the new parliament will be seated and needs to elect a speaker, his two deputies, and then a president by two-thirds of the legislature, 217 votes out of 325. The president will then tell the bloc with the most votes to come up with a ruling coalition to name a new prime minister. A majority, 163 votes, is necessary to form a new government.

McClatchy’s count covers 285 seats in parliament. 25 contests were too close to calculate, and did not include the 15 seats set aside for minorities and compensation seats that will go to parties that did well nationally, but not in any given province to win.

According to Inside Iraq, Prime Minster Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law list is still in the lead with 85 seats. That’s only two seats more than former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National Movement. Coming in third is the Iraqi National Alliance made up of the Supreme Council and the Sadrists with 62 seats, and then the Kurdish Alliance with 37. McClatchy’s estimate is close to previous ones reported here before. With 66% of the vote counted, the Institute for the Study of War had State of Law ahead with up to 79 seats, the National Movement second with up to 70 seats, the National Alliance third with up to 61 seats, and the Kurdish Alliance fourth with 35 seats. With 80% of the vote tabulated, Alsumaria TV had Maliki and Allawi tied with 87 seats each, followed by the National Alliance with 67 seats, and then the Kurdish Alliance with 38 seats. This blog’s count with 80% of the vote was similar with State of Law and the National Movement tied with 90 seats, followed by the National Alliance’s 66, and the Kurdish Alliance’s 39. Reidar Visser of the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs was the only one to come up with a slightly different count when two-thirds of the vote had been made public. He had Allawi in first with 90 seats, Maliki second with 88, the National Alliance third with 67, and the Kurdish Alliance fourth with 39.

With the counting almost done and State of Law holding an ever so slim lead, they have already nominated Maliki for a second term as head of state. It’s unknown how hard it will be for him to find partners. Early on it seemed that the National Alliance would support Maliki, and he was trying to woo the Kurds, but now rumors are swirling of Iraq’s neighbors trying to rally support behind Allawi. The Sadrists have also come out ahead of the Supreme Council within the National Alliance, which could complicate talks since Maliki led a crackdown against Sadr’s Mahdi Army in 2008. Some in State of Law have even mentioned dumping Maliki if it came down to it in return for a leading role in the new administration. 

Allawi could find it no easier to become prime minister if Maliki fails. For example, the Kurds will play a crucial role in any new government, but members of the National Movement have demanded that an Arab be president instead of a Kurd, and have warned Allawi to make no concessions on Kirkuk, which will be a major demand of the Kurdish Alliance. That didn’t stop Allawi and Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi from recently traveling to Kurdistan to talk about an alliance.

With State of Law and the National Movement both finishing with roughly 80 seats, it will take another 80 to get a majority in parliament. The only way possible to get that number is to bring on board the other two major lists the Iraqi National Alliance and the Kurdish Alliance, or for State of Law and the National Movement to join together. That latter scenario would seem very unlikely as Maliki and Allawi are both competing to become Iraq’s leader, but anything is possible in Iraqi politics. If the situation becomes deadlocked an outside candidate might even have to be found to replace the two frontrunners.

Projected Seat Distributions In Parliament

McClatchy Newspapers Count – 89% of Votes Counted
State of Law 85 Seats
Iraqi National Movement 82 Seats
Iraqi National Alliance 62 Seats
Kurdish Alliance 37 Seats
Change List 7 Seats
Accordance Front 5 Seats
Unity of Iraq 3 Seats
Kurdish Islamic Group 2 Seats
Kurdish Islamic Union 2 Seats

Alsumaria TV Count – 80% of Votes Counted
State of Law 87 Seats
Iraqi National Movement 87 Seats
Iraqi National Alliance 67 Seats
Kurdish Alliance 38 Seats

Musings On Iraq Count – 80% of Votes Counted
State of Law: 90
Iraqi National Movement: 90
Iraqi National Alliance: 66
Kurdish Alliance: 39
Change List: 8
Accordance Front: 4
Kurdish Islamic Union: 4
Unity of Iraq: 3
Kurdish Islamic Group: 3

Institute for the Study of War Count – 66% of Votes Counted
State of Law 73-79 Seats
Iraqi National Movement 62-70 Seats
Iraqi National Alliance 56-61 Seats
Kurdish Alliance 33-35 Seats
Change List 9-10 Seats
Accordance Front 5-7 Seats
Unity of Iraq 5-6 Seats
Kurdistan Islamic Union 4 Seats
Unity of Iraq 3 Seats

Reidar Visser Count – 66% of Votes Counted
Iraqi National Movement 90 Seats
State of Law 88 Seats
Iraqi National Alliance 67 Seats
Kurdish Alliance 39 Seats
Change List 8 Seats
Accordance Front 4 Seats

SOURCES

AK News, “Law State Coalition nominates al-Maliki for Prime Minister,” 3/18/10

Allam, Hannah and Hammoudi, Laith, “Even if he wins, Maliki may be out as Iraq’s prime minister,” McClatchy Newspapers, 3/18/10

Alsumaria, “IHEC: 80% of votes show Allawi in the lead,” 3/17/10

Fadel, Leila, “Iraqi election accentuates country’s deep divides,” Washington Post, 3/18/10

Institute for the Study of War, “Fact Sheet: Iraq’s Preliminary Elections results,” 3/16/10

McClatchy Newspapers, “Iraq’s Elections Results,” Inside Iraq, 3/18/10

Sowell, Kirk, “Iraq Elections: Maliki’s Path to Re-election,” World Politics Review, 3/16/10

Visser, Reidar, “Baghdad Projects Based on a 60 Percent Count,” Iraq and Gulf Analysis, 3/16/10
- “The Internal Dynamics of the Iraqi National Alliance: The Sadrist Factor,” Iraq and Gulf Analysis, 3/17/10

Problem For Refugee/Displaced Return Program In Diyala

Refugees International recently released a report in mid-March 2010 on Iraq’s refugees and displaced that highlighted a return program currently being conducted in Diyala province in northeastern Iraq. Refugees International held up the program as a successful example of the Iraqi government, the United Nations, and international organizations working together to help Iraq’s displaced return and be re-integrated into their home province. The plan seeks to have 27,500 displaced and refugee families return to Diyala, and rebuilding 400 villages destroyed during the war. So far 3,000 homes have been rebuilt, and the Ministry of Displacement and Migration said that 12,900 families, around 77,000 people, had come back to the province from late 2008 to the end of 2009. The government has also provided 12,500 of those families with a grant of $850, with 400 more on the waiting list. The Displacement Ministry is also helping the returnees with jobs. There are also plans to build 6,000 more houses this year.

This has run into a problem however. The government wants to build 3,000 housing units in the Khanaqin district, which is a disputed territory between Arabs and Kurds. After the 2003 invasion, thousands of Kurds returned to the area, claiming that they had been displaced by Saddam Hussein’s Arabization policy. In turn, thousands of Arabs left the district. The central authorities now want these families to return, which the Kurds might object to. Khanaqin was the site of a stand off between government security forces and the Kurdish peshmerga in 2008, when Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki sent troops there as part of a security operation in the province. The two sides would not recognize each others’ authority, and the U.S. military had to step in to defuse the situation, which could have led to a shoot out. So far the Kurdish Regional Government has said nothing officially about the housing and return plan.

During the sectarian war of 2006-2007 Diyala saw one of the largest humanitarian disasters in Iraq. According to the International Organization for Migration, Diyala had the second most displaced after Baghdad during the fighting. Conversely, since that phase of the Iraq war ended, the U.N. has found that Diyala has received the second most returns, approximately 55,660 people. 

The Diyala plan is to return the displaced to their former homes and rebuild their villages if they were destroyed. Most of this devastation occurred during the sectarian war, but in Khanaqin, displacement mostly occurred as a result of Kurdish refugees returning in the aftermath of the U.S. invasion that pushed out Arab families. Since the district has been a flashpoint between the Kurdistan government and Baghdad in the past, it’s likely that the Kurds will object to Arabs coming back and houses being built for them. In this case, two of Iraq’s major problems, the Arab-Kurd divide and refugees have intersected, with one trouncing an attempt to solve the other. The authorities will likely have to place the Arab families in another part of Diyala, thus maintaining the new population pattern created by the overthrow of Saddam, but at least more families will be able to go back to their province and find permanent shelter.

SOURCES

International Organization for Migration, “IOM Emergency Needs Assessments Post February 2006 Displacement In Iraq 1 June 2009 Monthly Report,” 6/1/09

IRIN, “IRAQ: Controversy over Diyala Province housing project,” 3/18/10
- “IRAQ: IDPs returning to Diyala Province in increasing numbers,” 3/9/10

Refugees International, “Iraq: Humanitarian Needs Persist,” 3/17/10

UNHCR Iraq Operation, “Monthly Statistical Update on Return – December 2009,” 1/27/10

Are Iraq’s Neighbors Promoting Allawi As Prime Minister?

The Iraqi paper Wasat reported that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki recently sent a delegation to Tehran to gain support for his re-election as prime minister. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad however, allegedly told the Iranians that they, along with Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, are opposed to Maliki returning as the head of state, and that if Tehran decided to back him, that would harm relations with Damascus. All of those Sunni run governments are supposedly supporting Iyad Allawi to become the next prime minister. The Roads To Iraq blog claimed that the Saudis have told Allawi that he needs to make whatever deals necessary to form a ruling coalition, even if that means compromising on Kirkuk or giving Maliki a high position within the new government. As a reward, the Saudis would open full diplomatic relations with Baghdad, which have been frozen since the 2003 invasion. A member of the Iraqi National Alliance also said that Iran might not be opposed to Allawi becoming prime minister as long as he has good relations with Tehran. Back on February 24, 2010 Alsumaria TV ran a story saying that Iran and Syria had agreed to back Allawi, and that he held secret meetings in Teheran to discuss the matter. 

While these are all rumors for now, what is known is that before the March 2010 elections, Allawi’s Iraqi National Movement actively sought the support of Sunni governments from around the region. For example, in December Allawi traveled to Damascus where he met with President Assad. He also took trips to Egypt, Kuwait, Qatar, Lebanon, the UAE, and a high profile meeting with the king of Saudi Arabia and the head of its intelligence agency. Right before the vote, Allawi had a conference with the Turkish president and prime minister and President Assad again, while his running mate Vice President Tariq Hashemi went to Jordan and Syria as well. The conventional wisdom is that all of these regional powers are positioning themselves for the pending U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. They want a government that they can be friendly with, were largely opposed to Shiite rule after the overthrow of Saddam, and want to counter Iranian influence in Baghdad. Allawi offers them all of these. He promised to strengthen Iraq’s ties with the Arab world, most of his National Movement is Sunni, and he has opposed Iranian interference in Iraq.

All of Iraq’s neighbors with the exception of Iran, lost standing in Iraq as a result of the U.S. invasion. Turkey was afraid of the Kurds’ new role and what that would mean for their own Kurdish minority, while Syria and the Saudis actively supported the insurgency. Iran on the other hand saw Shiites take power led by their friends the Supreme Council and the Dawa Party. Now that the Americans are leaving they are all trying to stake out their position within Iraq, and this is playing out in the country’s election. The question seems to be whether the Arab and Turkish governments can convince Iran to not object to Allawi, otherwise Tehran may be able to sabotage negotiations for a new ruling coalition using their allies in the major Shiite parties.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq says it wants better Syrian ties,” 3/2/10

Alsumaria, “Iran and Syria to support Allawi as Iraq PM,” 2/24/10

Aswat al-Iraq, “Syrian President meets Iyad Allawi,” 12/21/09
- “Talks with Gul, Erdogan constructive, useful – Allawi,” 2/27/10

DPA, “Syria’s al-Assad meets Iraqi elections challenger as voting starts,” 3/4/10

Jawad, Saad, “More foreign than domestic interest,” Media Monitors Network, 2/27/10

Kenner, David, “Iraq At Eye Level,” Foreign Policy, 3/8/10

Mashkour, Salem, “Iraqi Elections and Prospective Government Scenarios,” Arab Reform Bulletin, 3/3/10

Al-Qabas, Al-Watan, Baghdad Times, Al-Hayat, Al-Zaman, “Iraq Votes – Part IV,” MEMRI Blog, 3/11/10

Roads To Iraq, “Allawi and Maliki reached an agreement, Saudi Arabia asked Allawi to accept any deal,” 3/17/10

Al-Saheil, Turki, “Allawi’s Visit to Saudi Arabia Aims to Return Iraq to Arab System-Sources,” Asharq Alawsat, 2/22/10

Starr, Stephen, “Iraqi election fever hits Damascus,” Asia Times, 3/5/10

Wasat, “Maliki send representatives to Tehran to discuss support for a second term,” 3/17/10

Who’s Ahead In Iraq’s Election?

With around 80% of Iraq’s votes counted Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law list is in a dead heat with former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National Movement. A report by Alsumaria TV said that State of Law and the National Movement were tied with 87 seats apiece. The Iraqi National Alliance was third with 67 seats, and the Kurdish Alliance was fourth with 38 seats. Reidar Visser at Iraq and Gulf Analysis has Allawi ahead with 90 seats, followed by Maliki with 88 seats, the National Alliance with 67, and the Kurdish Alliance with 39. A third count by the Institute for the Study of War has Maliki with up to 82 seats, Allawi with up to 74, the National Alliance with up to 63, and the Kurdish Alliance with up to 36. A personal unofficial count has the State of Law with 90 seats, the National Movement with 90, the National Alliance with 66, and the Kurdish Alliance with 39.

A party needs to receive around 30,000 votes to get one seat in parliament. Lists that don’t reach that threshold have their votes distributed amongst the winners. That meant that in Diyala, while 22 lists competed, only eleven got votes, and of those, four will get a place in the legislature.

After many delays, the Iraqi Election Commission seems to be increasing their tabulations and the amount of information that they are releasing. By the end of the week they could have their work almost complete, and give more definitive statistics on how many seats each winning list will receive. After that the new legislature has to elect a speaker and two deputies, and then a president. The Kurdish Alliance has nominated current President Jalal Talabani to the post, while Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi told Al Jazeera a day after the election that an Arab should have the spot. The presidency is an important symbolic position for the Kurds, showing that they still have a prominent role in Baghdad with the central government. As part of the post-election positioning Maliki has been playing up Hashemi’s statements to win favor with the Kurds. They, along with the Iraqi National Alliance, are currently the kingmakers in Iraq. Whichever candidate they support, either Maliki or Allawi, will likely become the next prime minister.

Major Lists In 2010 Election
State of Law: Prime Minister Maliki’s Dawa, Independents, Dawa - Iraq
Iraqi National Movement: Ex-Prime Minister Allawi’s Iraqi National List, Iraqi National Dialogue Front
Iraqi National Alliance: Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, Badr Organization, Sadrists, Fadhila, Ex-Prime Minister Jaafari’s Renewal Party, Iraqi National Congress, Anbar Rescue Council
Kurdish Alliance: Kurdistan Democratic Party, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
Unity Of Iraq: Interior Minister Bolani’s Constitution Party, Iraq Awakening Conference
Change List: Kurdish opposition party led by co-founder of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
Kurdish Islamic Union: Islamist Kurdish opposition party
Kurdish Islamic Group: Islamist Kurdish opposition party
Liberal Individuals: Independents Parliamentarian Mithal al-Alusi, Sayed Ayad Jamal al-Din
Rafidain: Assyrian Christian Party
National Union Alliance: Tribal based party

Projected Seat Distributions In Parliament

Alsumaria TV Seat Count
State of Law 87 Seats
Iraqi National Movement 87 Seats
Iraqi National Alliance 67 Seats
Kurdish Alliance 38 Seats

Reidar Visser Count
Iraqi National Movement 90 Seats
State of Law 88 Seats
Iraqi National Alliance 67 Seats
Kurdish Alliance 39 Seats
Change List 8 Seats
Accordance Front 4 Seats

Institute for the Study of War Count
State of Law 73-79 Seats
Iraqi National Movement 62-70 Seats
Iraqi National Alliance 56-61 Seats
Kurdish Alliance 33-35 Seats
Change List 9-10 Seats
Accordance Front 5-7 Seats
Unity of Iraq 5-6 Seats
Kurdistan Islamic Union 4 Seats
Unity of Iraq 3 Seats

Musings On Iraq Seat Distribution
State of Law: 90
Iraqi National Movement: 90
Iraqi National Alliance: 66
Kurdish Alliance: 39
Change List: 8
Accordance Front: 4
Kurdish Islamic Union: 4
Unity of Iraq: 3
Kurdish Islamic Group: 3

Early Election Returns

Anbar – 14 Seats
83% counted
1. Iraqi National Movement 230,878
2. Accordance Front 42,882
3. Unity of Iraq 34,056
Not Enough Votes For Seat
4. State of Law 5,141
5. Iraqi National Alliance 4,139

Babil – 16 Seats
80% counted
1. State of Law 175,753
2. Iraqi National Alliance 138,513
3. Iraqi National Movement 78,996
Not Enough Votes For Seat
4. Unity of Iraq 12,892
5. Accordance Front 7,056
6. Kurdish Alliance 914

Baghdad – 68 Seats
78% counted
1. State of Law 663,311
2. Iraqi National Movement 594,053
3. Iraqi National Alliance 409,327
4. Accordance Front 37,986
Not Enough Votes For Seat
5. Unity of Iraq 22,818
6. Kurdish Alliance 15,062
7. Change List 1,256
8. Kurdish Islamic Union 710

Basra – 24 Seats
86% counted
1. State of Law 347,304
2. Iraqi National Alliance 191,925
3. Iraqi National Movement 58,495
Not Enough Votes For Seat
4. Accordance Front 13,786
5. Unity of Iraq 7,777

Dhi Qar – 18 Seats
84%
1. Iraqi National Alliance 195,616
2. State of Law 184,607
3. Iraqi National Movement 33,390
Not Enough Votes For Seat
4. Unity of Iraq 16,367
5. Kurdish Alliance 289

Diyala – 13 Seats
75% counted
1. Iraqi National Movement 173,989
2. Iraqi National Alliance 61,220
3. State of Law 42,218
4. Kurdish Alliance 31,494
Not Enough Votes For Seat
5. Accordance Front 18,286
6. Change List 5,558
7. Unity of Iraq 4,761
8. Justice Association 2,080
9. People Union 1,557
10. National Front 1,537
11. Kurdish Islamic Union 1,516

Dohuk – 10 Seats
70% counted
1. Kurdish Alliance 213,941
2. Kurdish Islamic Union 39,987
Not Enough Votes For Seat
3. Change List 15,834
4. Independent Nasir Toufis Rashid Beg Berwary List 2,706
5. Rafidain 2,619
6. Kurdish Islamic Group 2,048
7. Liberal Individuals 176
8. Iraqi National Alliance 101

Irbil – 14 Seats
73% counted
1. Kurdish Alliance 298,805
2. Change List 73,780
3. Kurdish Islamic Group 45,234
4. Kurdish Islamic Union 37,113
Not Enough Votes For Seat
5. Turkmen Front 1,775
6. Independent Faisal Pasha 811
8. National Union Alliance 422
8. Iraqi National Alliance 313
9. Liberal Individuals 144

Karbala – 10 Seats
74% counted
1. State of Law 122,140
2. Iraqi National Alliance 56,062
Not Enough Votes For Seat
3. Iraqi National Movement 24,914
4. Unity of Iraq 7,637

Maysan – 10 Seats
76% counted
1. Iraqi National Alliance 95,408
2. State of Law 71,591
Not Enough Votes For Seat
3. Iraqi National Movement 10,942
4. Unity of Iraq 3,770

Muthanna – 7 Seats
86% counted
1. State of Law 76,168
2. Iraqi National Alliance 58,269
Not Enough Votes For Seat
3. Unity of Iraq 17,862
4. Iraqi National Movement 14,615
5. Kurdish Alliance 1,145
6. Accordance Front 548

Najaf – 12 Seats
79% counted
1. State of Law 128,978
2. Iraqi National Alliance 113,400
Not Enough Votes For Seat
3. Iraqi National Movement 21,463
4. Unity of Iraq 5,687
5. Kurdish Alliance 401

Ninewa – 31 Seats
80% counted
1. Iraqi National Movement 462,784
2. Kurdish Alliance 158,108
3. Accordance Front 47,994
4. Unity of Iraq 39,869
Not Enough Votes For Seat
5. Iraqi National Alliance 28,340
6. State of Law 12,921
7. National Union Alliance 7,558
8. Change List 6,964
9. National Unified Front 5,668
10. Kurdish Islamic Union 3,220
11. People’s Union 2,086
12. Iraqi National Association 1,610
13. Iraqi Freedom Movement 951
14. National Inventors and Experts 935
15. Kurdish Islamic Group 929

Qadisiyah – 11 Seats
85% counted
1. Iraqi National Alliance 107,739
2. State of Law 103,392
3. Iraqi National Movement 42,341
Not Enough Votes For Seat
4. Unity of Iraq 10,092
5. Kurdish Alliance 672

Salahaddin – 12 Seats
74% counted
1. Iraqi National Movement 165,843
2. Accordance Front 42,841
3. Unity of Iraq 38,322
Not Enough Votes For Seat
4. State of Law 24,615
5. Iraqi National Alliance 16,845
6. Kurdish Alliance 14,880
7. Change List 1,692

Sulaymaniya – 17 Seats
80% counted
1. Kurdish Alliance 248,023
2. Change List 220,141
3. Kurdish Islamic Union 79,557
4. Kurdish Islamic Group 61,774
Not Enough Votes For Seat
5. Turkmen Front 518
6. National Union Alliance 552
7. National Welfare Movement 500
8. Iraqi National Alliance 150
9. Liberal Individuals 89

Tamim – 12 Seats
75% counted
1. Iraqi National Movement 147,683
2. Kurdish Alliance 147,667
Not Enough Votes For Seat
3. Change List 24,436
4. Kurdish Islamic Union 18,441
5. Accordance Front 12,671
6. Iraqi National Alliance 9,917
7. State of Law 9,485
8. Kurdish Islamic Group 5,347
9. Arabic National Front 2,853

Wasit – 11 Seats
89% counted
1. State of Law 126,373
2. Iraqi National Alliance 110,652
3. Iraqi National Movement 42,595
Not Enough Votes For Seat
4. Unity of Iraq 15,850
5. Liberal Individuals 2,330
6. Kurdish Alliance 743

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “IHEC: 80% of votes show Allawi in the lead,” 3/17/10
- “Iraq first results: Maliki in pole position,” 3/16/10

Alsumaria News, “Maliki wins one million and 757 thousand of the votes of Iraqis, with a 20 thousand difference for the rival Allawi,” 3/16/10

AK News, “Update: New preliminary results of Iraq Vote,” 3/17/10

Hanna, Michael, “The Race for the Iraqi Presidency,” Foreign Policy, 3/11/10

Institute for the Study of War, “Fact Sheet: Iraq’s Preliminary Elections results,” 3/16/10

The Majlis, “Results: Iraq’s 2010 parliamentary election,” 3/17/10

Sowell, Kirk, “Iraq Elections: Maliki’s Path to Re-Election,” World Politics Review, 3/16/10

Visser, Reidar, “Baghdad Projects Based on a 60 Percent Count,” Iraq and Gulf Analysis, 3/16/10
- “Predictions Based on Partial Results: Allawi Emerges as a Possible Front-Runner,” Iraq and Gulf Analysis, 3/16/10

Wall Street Journal, “The Election in Iraq,” 3/17/10

February 2010 Sees Deaths Almost Double In Mosul

The northern city of Mosul in Ninewa province saw a declining number of attacks and deaths at the end of 2009 that continued into the first month of 2010. In June 2009 for example, there were an average of 2.43 security incidents per day reported in the English language press, resulting in an average of 1.93 deaths per day and 4.10 wounded. Those numbers steadily went down until January 2010 when there were an average of 1.90 incidents, 1.22 deaths, and 2.87 wounded per day. February saw a reversal of that trend. Although the number of attacks stayed steady at 2.17 per day, the number of deaths jumped to 2.35 and wounded to 3.89.

Casualties overall in Iraq went up in February, but violence in Mosul has never really followed national trends in the last few years. The March parliamentary elections were probably the major cause for the up tick in casualties. Insurgents for example, launched a concerted campaign against Christians beginning in January 2010 that cost the lives of twelve people, and forced over 4,000 to flee the city. There were also several large bombings in Mosul, such as one on March 18 that wounded 23. Next month's numbers will show whether this was just a temporary increase because of the voting, or whether insurgents have regrouped and reloaded. It's important to follow trends in Mosul because it is the last urban stronghold of Sunni militants, and it cannot be said that they are defeated until violence in the city subsides.

Attack and Casualty Statistics for Mosul

Month	Attacks/Avg. Per Day	Deaths/Avg. Per Day	Wounded/Avg. Per Day
July 09	73/2.43	79/2.54	169/5.45
Aug.	77/2.48	102/3.29	171/5.51
Sep.	72/2.40	65/2.16	60/2.00
Oct.	66/2.12	60/1.93	82/2.64
Nov.	55/1.83	37/1.23	71/2.36
Dec.	60/1.93	44/1.41	108/3.48
Jan. 10	59/1.90	38/1.22	89/2.87
Feb.	61/2.17	66/2.35	109/3.89

SOURCES

Alsumaria, "3 Iraqi civilians killed in Mosul," 2/26/10

Aswat al-Iraq, "2 civilians killed inside their store in Mosul," 2/25/10
- "2 cops killed, child injured in Mosul," 2/23/10
- "2 cops killed in Mosul attack," 2/22/10
- "2 Iraqi soldiers killed in Mosul shooting," 2/22/10
- "2 killed, 9 wounded in Mosul blast," 2/16/10
- "2 killed, 10 wounded in blast in Mosul," 2/26/10
- "2 killed in separate incidents in Mosul," 2/6/10
- "2^nd Mosul blast leaves 9 wounded," 2/26/10
- "3, including mayor, wounded in Mosul," 2/10/10
- "5 killed, wounded in Mosul shooting," 2/13/10
- "6 civilians killed, wounded by roadside bomb in Mosul," 2/9/10
- "23 wounded in Mosul blast," 2/18/10
- "AQI leader killed, another wounded in Mosul operation," 2/15/10
- "Blast in Mosul leaves woman injured," 2/9/10
- "Blast wounds 2 army officers in Mosul," 2/16/10
- "Body of slain main found, 1 wounded separately in Mosul," 2/25/10
- "Bomb leaves army officer dead in Mosul," 2/3/10
- "Bomb leaves boy's leg amputated in Mosul," 2/13/10
- "Car bomb targets electoral candidate in Mosul," 2/21/10
- "Child wounded by bomb blast in western Mosul," 2/16/10
- "Christian gunned down in Mosul," 2/15/10
- "Christian gunned down in Mosul shooting," 2/16/10
- "Christian student found dead in Mosul," 2/17/10
- "Cop killed in attack on Mosul checkpoints," 2/11/10
- "Female candidate assassinated in Mosul," 2/7/10
- "Gunmen kill 2 women in Mosul," 2/25/10
- "Gunmen kill 3 Christians in Mosul," 2/23/10
- "Gunmen kill civilian, young man in Mosul," 2/2/10
- "Gunmen kill civilians in Mosul," 2/15/10
- "Gunmen kill woman in Mosul," 2/15/10
- "Gunmen shoot down civilian out of mosque in Mosul," 2/4/10
- "Gunmen shoot down policeman in Mosul," 2/21/0
- "Hand grenade injures cop, civilian, child in Mosul," 2/2/10
- "Hand grenade targets Hadbaa police department," 2/20/10
- "Hand grenade wounds 2 in Mosul," 2/24/10
- "IED explodes in front of Mosul hospital," 2/8/10
- "IED injures 2 civilians in Mosul," 2/9/10
- "IED injures 5 in Mosul," 2/17/10
- "IED wounds 2 cops in Mosul," 2/22/10
- "Iraq soldier, gunman killed in Mosul clashes," 2/23/10
- "Iraqi soldier killed in Mosul," 2/15/10
- "Mosul blast leaves 4 killed, wounded," 2/16/10
- "Soldier wounded in Mosul blast," 2/5/10
- "Weeklong kidnapped Christian man's body found in Mosul," 2/20/10
- "Woman, policeman killed in Mosul," 2/23/10
- "Young man killed in blast in northern Mosul," 2/11/10

Canadian Press, "Number of US troops in Iraq at lowest level since 2003 invasion, military says," 2/16/10

DPA, "Three Iraqis killed, one injured in separate attacks," 2/15/10
- "Three police killed in Iraq blast," 2/20/10

Issa, Sahar, "Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq Wednesday 3 February, 2010," McClatchy Newspapers, 2/3/10

Reuters, "FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Feb 1," 2/1/10
- "FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Feb 3," 2/3/10
- "Iraqi Christians Protest Slayings," 2/28/10