Understanding Iraq’s Syrian Policy

When talking about the relationship between Iraq and Syria, the conventional wisdom seems to be that Baghdad is backing Damascus at the behest of Iran. Syria has been one of Tehran’s closest allies in the region. It is therefore threatened by the possible fall of President Bashar al-Assad. Many also see Iraq as being under the influence of Iran now that the United States military is out of the country. This assumes that Iraq cannot act independently, and is basically a proxy of Tehran in the Middle East. This theory overlooks the security concerns of the Iraqi government, which is the driving force being its Syrian policy.

Iraq has passively supported the Syrian government, while criticizing it at the same time. Officially, Baghdad is neutral towards Damascus. Diplomatically, Iraq has called for a peaceful resolution to the conflict. At the end of August 2012 for instance, it suggested that the Non-Aligned Movement act as a middleman in negotiations between President Bashar al-Assad’s government and the opposition. Before that, it backed a United Nations-Arab League initiative led by former U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan. Officially, Baghdad has also said that it wants democracy in Syria, but only through peaceful means. At the same time, Iraq has done nothing to push Assad to compromise with his opponents. In July, it rejected an Arab League resolution calling for him to step down. In February, it was against an Arab League proposal to arm the Syrian opposition. In December 2011, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki warned that if Assad were to fall, it would cause problems throughout the Middle East, and when the fighting first broke out, he called on the Syrian people to wait for their government to carry out reforms rather than use violence. On the other hand, Maliki has been critical of Assad. Baghdad has said that Damascus needed to give its people more freedoms, and an adviser to the premier called Assad a dictator. Overall, Iraq has given its implicit support to Syria. The Annan plan has proved to be a failure, and Maliki’s suggestion that the Non-Aligned Movement get involved is unlikely to go anywhere as well. Baghdad therefore has given off the impression that it wants to help the situation next door, but is basically allowing Assad to stay in power. This stance has led to accusations that Iraq is doing Iran’s bidding. Several Saudi papers have attacked Maliki as being an Iranian puppet for example. The driving force behind this policy however, is the foreign interference in the fighting, and the fear that it will spill over into Iraq.

Premier Maliki is afraid of what might happen if the Assad government were to fall in Syria (AP)

Iraq’s stance towards Syria is driven by security concerns. Baghdad is afraid that Sunni militants within the opposition will take over after the fall of Assad or at least be able to set up bases there, which will then be used to threaten Iraq. Former National Security Adviser to Prime Minister Maliki Mowfaq Rubaie for instance, said that civil war in Syria could give way to Islamists coming to power there. He stated that they could in turn fuel the insurgency in Iraq, and start a new civil war. Iraqi officials have also claimed that people from Anbar and Ninewa are heading to Syria to fight, that there were training camps in Anbar for Syrian fighters, and recruiting drives in the province. Deputy Interior Minister Adnan Asadi warned that weapons were being shipped to Syria to be used against the government, and that jihadists from foreign countries were heading there as well. Baghdad has also warned of Al Qaeda in Iraq taking advantage of the situation. U.S. officials have made similar claims. Those views have been bolstered by Al Qaeda in Iraq’s umbrella organization, the Islamic State of Iraq, calling for jihad in Syria, saying the fight there was a battle between Sunnis and Shiites. These concerns of the growing threat posed by the conflict in Syria seem to resonate amongst many in Iraq. There was a report on Radio Free Iraq for example, interviewing average Iraqis in Karbala who worried that Islamists were taking advantage of the situation next door, and how that would negatively affect them. The son of a leading cleric in Najaf also told the New York Times that his father was afraid of the fall of Assad, and how that would play out in Iraq. A representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani stated that he wanted Assad to stay in power, because of the possible negative consequences his removal might have on Iraq. Finally, the Sadr Movement has voiced similar concerns. To add to this, Iraq has accused countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey, who Baghdad believes are already trying to undermine Maliki’s government, of arming the Syrian opposition. The fighting in Syria is seen in sectarian terms in Iraq. Baghdad, the Sadr movement, elements of the Shiite clerical establishment, and the street have all voiced fears that if Assad were to go, Sunni militants would take over or at least be able to take advantage of the ensuing chaos to establish new bases. They would then turn their attention back to Iraq. The Islamist elements within the Syrian opposition appear to be rather small, but calls for jihad within and without Iraq to fight Shiites, and the foreign interference of countries, which have also opposed Baghdad, all play upon the country’s recent history. To many, it seems like a repeat of Iraq’s insurgency and civil war. Iraq is just pulling itself out of that chaos, and does not want to see it renewed, because of Syria. That is why Maliki is following his current policy, not because of any Iranian influence. If Tehran did not exist, many Iraqis would still feel threatened by the events occurring next door.

Iraq once saw Syria as a direct threat, because it supported the insurgency, but is now afraid of what might happen if Damascus were to fall to those same types of militants. From 2003-2010, Syria was the main conduit for foreign fighters to enter Iraq. The Assad government helped ferry them through the country, made contacts with Al Qaeda in Iraq, and gave them logistical support. In 2010, relations between the two improved, as U.S. troops began to leave Iraq, and the Assad and Maliki governments attempted to renew ties, and increase trade. When the Arab Spring hit Syria, and Damascus cracked down on it. Baghdad in turn, began criticizing the violence, while giving implicit support to Assad. As the fighting escalated, many elements within Iraq became more and more alarmed, as jihadists and neighboring countries began getting involved. Today, those groups see the Syrian fighting as a direct threat to stability in Iraq. They are afraid that if the Syrian government was to fall, the chaos would spill over, and there would be increased violence in Iraq. A lot of Iraqis see elements of their own civil war playing out in Syria, and want to protect themselves from it. That is the driving force behind Baghdad’s policy, far more than any influence Iran might have.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq accuses some Arab states of helping fund terror,” 2/17/12

- “Iraq, Iran funding Syrian crackdown: former official,” 1/5/11

- “Iraq’s Sadr rejects US call for Assad to go,” 8/19/11

- “Sadr says his followers not fighting in Syria,” 6/8/12

- “Syria under ‘jihadist invasion,’” 2/12/12

- “Thousands of Iraqi Sunnis protest Assad,” 3/2/12

AIN, “Syrian FM: Syria welcomes Iraqi proposal over Syrian crisis,” 8/31/12

Ali, Hussam, “Al-Qaeda trains militants in Nineveh for Syria, says security committee,” AK News, 3/17/12

Ali, Sara, “Shia forces are supporting Damascus and Sunni forces are supporting the opposition, says Kurdish Syrian opposition leader,” AK News, 4/23/12

Alsumaria News, “Governor of Anbar confirms possession of evidence of the entry of armed elements of the Mehdi Army to Syria,” 11/19/11

- “”Jihadists” and weapons from Iraq to Syria,” 2/12/12

Arango, Tim, “Syria’s Sectarian Fears Keep Region on Edge,” New York Times, 2/28/12

Arango, Tim and Adnan, Duraid, “For Iraqis, Aid to Rebels in Syria Repays a Debt,” New York Times, 2/13/12

Associated Press, “As Iraq hosts summit, Syria crisis puts it under pressure to choose between Iran, Arab ties,” 3/24/12

- “Iraq says Al Qaeda fighters crossing from Iraq to Syria and carrying out attacks,” 7/5/12

Aswat al-Iraq, “Diplomats warns against Jihadists’ infiltration from Iraq into Syria,” 4/23/12

- “Sadrist Trend renews fears of deteriorating Syria on Iraq,” 2/15/12

- “Syria exports 20 million dollars daily to Iraq,” 1/16/12

- “URGENT / Thousands demonstrate in Falluja supporting Syrian people,” 2/17/12

Bayoumy, Yara, “Iraq Sunni tribes warn against arming Syrian opposition,” Reuters, 3/4/12

Blomfield, Adrian, “Syria: fall of Bashar al-Assad will bring war to Middle East, warns Iraq,” Telegraph, 12/4/11

Dagher, Sam, “Syria Chaos Pushes Iraqis Back Home,” Wall Street Journal, 2/17/12

Dickinson, Elizabeth, “Nervous Iraq keeps its eye on neighbouring Syria,” The National, 7/27/12

Falk, Pamela, “Al Qaeda a “cancer” in Syria, says Iraq’s U.N. ambassador,” CBS News, 8/1/12

Habib, Mustafa, “why iraq didn’t vote on syria: vested interests incapacitate foreign ministry,” Niqash, 11/17/11

Haddadi, Anissa, “Syria: Iraq’s Muqtada al-Sadr Reported Sending Fighters to Prop Up Assad Regime,” International Business Times, 11/23/11

International Crisis Group, “Déjà vu All Over Again? Iraq’s Escalating Political Crisis,” 7/30/12

- “Reshuffling The Cards? (II): Syria’s New Hand,” 12/16/09

Issa, Sahar, “As Al Qaeda moves fight to Syria, violence in Iraq drops sharply,” McClatchy Newspapers, 2/21/12

Jakes, Lara and Yahya, Mazin, “Iraqis profit from Syrian arms smuggling,” Associated Press, 2/16/12

Kane, Sean, Abouaoun, Dr. Elie, “Baghdad’s Wary Support for the Syrian Status Quo,” United States Institute of Peace, 10/18/11

Khalat, Khidir, “Arms still smuggled into Syria from Sinjar,” National Iraqi News Agency, 2/25/12

- “Light arms smuggling from Iraq to Syria is flourishing,” AK News, 1/25/12

Kitabat, “Pumping Iraqi financial and travel agencies in Damascus and the interface for the recruitment of two articles to keep the lion,” 6/6/12

Landay, Jonathan, “U.S. officials: Al Qaida behind Syria bombings,” McClatchy Newspapers, 2/10/12

Al-Mada, “Official in Basra calling for the formation of an army of two million to support Assad,” 1/7/12

Miller, Elhanan, “Syrian Kurds ‘training in Iraq for the day after Assad,’” Times of Israel, 3/30/12

Miller, Greg, “Al-Qaeda infiltrating Syrian opposition, U.S. officials say,” Washington Post, 2/16/12

Murphy, Dan, “Deadly Iraq bombings and a reawakening insurgency,” Christian Science Monitor, 7/24/12

National Iraqi News Agency, “Dabbagh : The Iraqi government refuse the Arab League resolution calling on Assad to step down,” 7/23/12

Naylor, Hugh, “Analysis: Al Qaeda offshoots aiming for civil war in Syria,” The National, 5/13/12

Niqash, “smuggling weapons into syria: on the job with iraq’s gun runners,” 3/8/12

Noori, Shakir, “Iraq shifts stance on Syrian revolution,” Gulf News, 8/3/12

Nordland, Rod, “Al Qaeda Taking Deadly New Role in Syria Conflict,” New York Times, 7/24/12

Al-Rafidayn, “Talabani Reassures Syrian President Of Iraq’s Support For His Reform Program,” MEMRI Blog, 7/27/11

Russia Today, “Iraqi gunmen afoot to join Syrian insurgency (PHOTOS),” 2/20/12

Sabri, Abdullah, “Maliki does not support arming Syrian opposition,” AK News, 3/30/12

Al-Salhy, Suadad, “Iraq insurgents reject sending arms, fighters to Syria,” Reuters, 2/22/12

Sands, Phil, “Iraq tiptoes away from Assad,” The National, 3/30/12

Schmidt, Michael and Ghazi, Yasir, “Iraq Calls for Change of Syrian Regime,” New York Times, 9/20/11

Schmitt, Eric and Shanker, Thom, “Sunni Extremists May Be Aiding Al Qaeda’s Ambitions in Syria, Analysts Say,” New York Times, 2/15/12

Sengupta, Kim, “Syria’s sectarian war goes international as foreign fighters and arms pour into country,” Independent, 2/20/12

Shafaq News, “Source: Asaib alhel al – Haq intensify their presence in Damascus to protect Zeinab shrine,” 7/26/12

Shallal, Azhar, “Iraq border town ready to repay debt to Syrians,” Daily Star, 2/22/12

Sherlock, Ruth, “Exclusive interview: why I defected from Bashar al-Assad’s regime, by former diplomat Nawaf Fares,” Telegraph, 7/14/12

Sly, Liz, “Iraq’s relations with Arab world deteriorating days after Baghdad summit,” Washington Post, 4/4/12

Al-Tayyeb, Mouhammed, “Iraq rejects Saudi-Qatari proposal to arm the Syrian opposition,” AK News, 2/25/12

Wahed, Mustafa Abdel, “Karbala: Fears of violence in Syria throw a shadow over Iraq,” Radio Free Iraq, 7/27/12

Waleed, Khaled, “biased from baghdad: iraqi observers in syria tell protestors to give up,” Niqash, 2/2/12

- “what was iraq’s role in the export of banned us-made web watching gear to syria?” Niqash, 11/24/11

Wong, Kristina, “Iraq resists U.S. prod, lets Iran fly arms to Syria,” Washington Times, 3/15/12

Xinhua, “Iraq moves against transiting arms to Syria: US,” 7/24/12

Zahra, Hassan Abdul, “Iraq says sanctions on Syria ‘not possible,’” Agence France Presse, 11/26/11