Tuesday, December 18, 2018

Assessment Of The Status Of The Islamic State

(Iraqi News)

Michael Knights from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote another excellent assessment of the state of the Islamic State’s insurgency in Iraq in the recent issue of the CTC Sentinel published by the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point. In the summer of 2016 the Islamic State was talking about saving its manpower and shifting towards an insurgency in the face of Iraqi offensives and U.S. Coalition air strikes. That became reality in late 2017 as the group didn’t put up a fight against the last Iraqi offensives to free the final bits of territory held by the militants. Instead, IS was withdrawing to the rural areas of central Iraq to try to rebuild again akin to what it did from 2011-14 after it was defeated by the Surge. Today, it is still active in the same six provinces it has always been, but the number of attacks is far lower. Knights asked the questions is the group simply incapable of carrying out more operations due to its losses or is it simply preserving its resources and aiming for more targeted attacks?

This Day In Iraqi History - Dec 18


1959 Gen Qasim called Ahwaz and Mohammareh in Iran Arab Started supporting Arabs in          Khuzistan province
2002 Pres Bush said war was inevitable with Iraq at NSC meeting
2002 Bush met with Spanish Pres Anzar Said Iraq’s weapons declaration was a joke and US would
eventually have to remove Saddam
2002 Sec Def Rumsfeld ordered start of civil administration to run postwar Iraq 3 months before
invasion
2002 Saddam scrapped all of Iraq’s defense plans for US invasion and replaced them with one he
made himself War plans consisted of concentric circles around Baghdad and defending main cities
2002 CIA Dir Tenet asked Germans if Iraqi defector CURVEBALL could be interviewed about his
claims Iraq had mobile WMD labs Germany said no
(Musings On Iraq article on how CURVEBALL influenced US intel on Iraq’s WMD)
(Musings On Iraq articles on the CURVEBALL story)
2002 UK Foreign Secretary Straw said Iraq in material breach of UN resolutions with its weapons
declaration that denied it had WMD
2002 IAEA head in Reuters No evidence that Iraq had worked on any nuclear facilities since 1998
2002 UK Defense Ministry admitted that ships were taking troops and tanks to Persian Gulf
2002 CIA briefed Bush and NSC on difficulties recruiting and maintaining sources in Iraq Said
talking about war while going to UN made Iraqis not willing to come forward because unsure US was going to remove Saddam
2002 State Dept posted listing of omissions in Iraq’s UN weapons declaration
2005 Bush national speech said Iraqi elections were a turning point for democracy in Middle East
and US withdrawal would show US lack of resolve
(Musings On Iraq article on pre-Surge US Iraq strategy)
2005 Allawi’s Iraqiya filed more than 60 complaints of voting violations including members of
security forces supporting United Iraqi Alliance
2007 SecState Rice told Maliki his govt wasn't working Maliki said others in govt were
obstructionists
2009 Asaib Ahl Al-Haq issued fatwa on Syria War saying it wasn’t about defending
            Sayid Zeinab shrine but fighting infidels and defending Islam
2011 VP Hashemi stopped at Baghdad airport some of his bodyguards arrested and then allowed to
fly to Sulaymaniya
(Musings On Iraq article on charges against VP Hashemi)
2011 Fin Min Issawi and Dep PM Mutlaq temporarily detained at Baghdad airport while trying to
take flight to Irbil to meet with Pres Barzani
(Musings On Iraq article on PM Maliki targeting Fin Min Issawi)
2012 Pres Talabani had a stroke effectively ending his political career although he would remain in
office
2017 Protests broke out in Sulaymaniya Kalar Rania Taq Taq Chamchamal and five other towns
against the Kurdish establishment
(Musings On Iraq article on Kurdish protests)

View the Iraq History Timelines 

Monday, December 17, 2018

Security In Iraq Dec 8-14, 2018

(Iraqi News)

Iraq reached another low in weekly security incidents from December 8-14, 2018. Since the last week of October the Islamic State has been far less active. Poor weather was one possible cause, but it also appears that the insurgents have cooled off on their own accord after a mini-summer campaign in the center of the country.

This Day In Iraqi History - Dec 17


1940 Regent called cabinet meeting telling them they lacked unity to run govt PM Gaylani
rejected Regent’s criticism and blamed problems on For Min Said Later in day Regent asked Gaylani to resign He refused Pro-Said MPs criticized Gaylani PM asked Regent to dismiss parliament
(Musings On Iraq book review of Rashid Ali al-Gailani, The National Movement in Iraq 1939-1941)
1962 Student union members at secondary school in Baghdad that started strike attacked by Pan-
Arab students leading to riot
1981 Iraqi counterattack failed in Shush across from Maysan
(Musings On Iraq interview with author Anthony Tucker-Jones on Iran-Iraq War)
(Musings On Iraq book review The Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988)
(Musings On Iraq book review Iran-Iraq War, The Lion of Babylon, 1980-1988)
(Musings On Iraq book review The Iran-Iraq War)
1992 Iraqi army moved north into Kurdish autonomous region claiming it was a military exercise
1997 Iraq banned UN weapons inspectors from presidential and sovereign sites
1999 UN Res 1284 created UNMOVIC as new Iraq WMD inspection regime Got rid of export oil
quotas and eased import restrictions under Oil for Food Program
2001 Sec of State Powell said sanctions on Iraq should continue because it still had WMD
2001 Iraqi defector Haideri provided by INC told CIA Iraq had secret WMD labs He later failed lie
detector test story proved false Labeled fabricator by DIA May 2002 but story continued to be used
2001 Czech Intel said story of 9/11 hijacker Atta meeting with Iraqi intel in Prague didn't happen
2001 Cheney told NBC story that 9/11 hijacker Atta met with Iraqi intel was unconfirmed
2001 White House said anthrax attacks in U.S. came from domestic sources not Iraq
2002 Sec State Powell hinted that US would reject Iraq’s weapons declaration to UN inspectors
2002 CIA said that Iraq did not include trying to buy uranium from Niger and aluminum tubes in its
declaration to UN inspectors
(Musings On Iraq article on the aluminum tubes story)
(Musings On Iraq article on Iraq-Niger uranium story)
2002 US inspected warehouse in Benin where uranium headed for Iraq allegedly stored but found
nothing
2003 Report Sunday Telegraph story that 9/11 hijacker Atta travelled to Baghdad in 01 was probably
false
2004 Bush briefed by DIA that insurgency was robust and strong and could lead to civil war without
reconciliation
2007 Report Abu Omar al-Baghdadi was a fake played by actor and Masri real leader of ISI Story was
false
2011 Baghdad Ops Command announced arrest warrant for VP Hashemi on terrorism charges
(Musings On Iraq article on charges against VP Hashemi)
2011 Maliki asked for no confidence vote against Dep PM Mutlaq
(Musings On Iraq article on Maliki’s moves against Mutlaq and Iraqiya)
2011 18 Diyala councilmen along with governor fled Baquba for Kurdish controlled Khanaqin dist
due to militias sent by PM over making province a federal region
(Musings On Iraq article on militia moves in Diyala)
2014 Peshmerga began offensive to break IS siege of Mount Sinjar
2017 Head of Al Abbas Combat Division Zaidi criticized Hashd that were going to run in 2018
elections for violating Sistani’s wishes

View the Iraq History Timelines

Sunday, December 16, 2018

Musings On Iraq In The News

Musings On Iraq was cited in "Iraq: Security and humanitarian situation" by the UK Home Office

Full Musings On Iraq citations

This Day In Iraqi History - Dec 16

1922 UK Lord of the Admiralty told Iraq commission Iraq oil would be important in case of
war in Far East
1925 League of Nations set Turkey-Iraq border with Mosul province going to Iraq
(Musings On Iraq article on how Mosul province became part of Iraq)
(Musings On Iraq book review The Creation of Iraq 1914-1921)
1962 43 day long student strike started in secondary schools that spread to colleges demanding
political rights
1981 Iranian Op Matla al-Fajar reached outside Hamid in center and stopped
1985 Saddam visited Moscow Gorbachev said USSR couldn’t sell to Iraq on credit anymore because
of financial problems Also Moscow would not give Saddam full backing now that he had relations with US Said USSR would still sell weapons and promised 54 Su-25 planes and 300 SCUD missiles
(Musings On Iraq interview with author Anthony Tucker-Jones on Iran-Iraq War)
(Musings On Iraq book review The Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988)
(Musings On Iraq book review Iran-Iraq War, The Lion of Babylon, 1980-1988)
(Musings On Iraq book review The Iran-Iraq War)
1991 KDP announced plans for elections for Kurdish parliament Iraq agreed Kurdish MPs not to
swear allegiance to Baath
(Musings On Iraq book review of The Kurds, A Modern History)
(Musings On Iraq book review Kurds of Iraq, Tragedy and Hope)
1995 King Hussein offered to sponsor talks amongst Iraqi opposition parties
1998 UN inspectors left Iraq again over non-cooperation
(Musings On Iraq article on UN weapons inspections)
1998 US and UK started Operation Desert Fox after Iraq broke off cooperation with UN weapons
inspectors Considered failure at time Hit empty buildings Actually ended Iraqs plans to revive WMD programs
(Musings On Iraq article on Op Desert Fox)
1998 Assessment by International Atomic Energy Agency Iraq had not produced a nuclear bomb
before Gulf War Iraq only produced a few grams of weapons grade nuclear material before Gulf War Iraq didn’t have capability to produce nuclear material because of inspections
(Musings On Iraq article on UN weapons inspections)
2003 Blair said it would take time to find Iraq’s WMD
2003 France and Germany agreed to US request to forgive part of $120 bil debt Iraq owed them
2004 Major Shiite parties agreed to United Iraqi Alliance for 2005 elections
2004 US Iraq cmdr Gen Casey US needed to train Iraqi forces and create effective Iraqi intelligence
services
(Musings On Iraq article on pre-Surge US Iraq strategy)
2007 Iraq took control of Basra province from British
2011 Iraqiya meeting at VP Hashemi’s residence Declared list would boycott parliament until PM
Maliki included them in decision making shared power stopped arbitrary arrests
(Musings On Iraq article on Iraqiya’s boycott)
2013 Maliki appointed Parliamentary Affairs Minister Safi from State of Law as acting Finance
Minister

Saturday, December 15, 2018

This Day In Iraqi History - Dec 15

1932 League of Nations Mandate Comm rejected Assyrian petition for autonomy Said Iraqi
govt would settle Assyrians within country or outside of it
1940 Foreign Minister Said wrote memo to PM Gaylani and Regent that Iraq had to back England
during WW2
(Musings On Iraq book review of Persian Gulf Command, A History of the Second World War In Iran and Iraq)
(Musings On Iraq book review of Rashid Ali al-Gailani, The National Movement in Iraq 1939-1941)
1957 Abdul-Wahab Mirjan became premier of Iraq Cabinet included 3 Kurdish ministers
1981 Iraq said it was ready to end war if Iran recognized borders Iran rejected offer
(Musings On Iraq interview with author Anthony Tucker-Jones on Iran-Iraq War)
(Musings On Iraq book review The Iran-Iraq War 1980-1988)
(Musings On Iraq book review Iran-Iraq War, The Lion of Babylon, 1980-1988)
(Musings On Iraq book review The Iran-Iraq War)
1990 Saddam told officials that US started war against Iraq in 1986 when it sold weapons to Iran in
Iran-Contra Affair
1998 US told chief UN inspector Butler to remove his team from Iraq before imminent US strike
1998 UN inspector chief report to Security Council said Iraq not cooperating again Was released to
press before UN members got their copies
(Musings On Iraq article on UN weapons inspections)
2003 Report Al Qaeda was going to divert fighters and funds from Afghanistan to Iraq
2005 Iraq held elections for a permanent parliament Some insurgent groups provided security to
make sure Sunnis could vote
2005 Secular candidate in Basra said afraid Shiite religious parties would use their militias and police
to carry out fraud during election
2005 Police in Najaf drove through city calling on people to vote for the United Iraqi Alliance
2006 Bush told Maliki to accept Surge as way to bring down violence Maliki said he would
announce it next day Didn't
2006 US intel said Maliki against Surge Said he didn't like US forces and didn’t want more of them
in Iraq
2011 U.S. announced withdrawal of its forces from Iraq
2011 ISF deployed outside homes of VP Hashemi, Fin Min Rafi Issawi and Dep PM Mutlaq in Green
Zone on orders of PM Maliki
(Musings On Iraq article on PM Maliki targeting Fin Min Issawi)
2011 PM Maliki suggested Dep PM Mutlaq be barred from entering parliament at meeting of
National Alliance Idea rejected by list
(Musings On Iraq article on Maliki’s moves against Mutlaq and Iraqiya)
2011 Militiamen sent by PM Maliki stormed Diyala council building and set up roadblocks
throughout province to intimidate local govt over move to make province federal region Head of Diyala council had his house set on fire and one of his bodyguards killed
(Musings On Iraq article on militia moves in Diyala) 

Assessment Of The Status Of The Islamic State

(Iraqi News) Michael Knights from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote another excellent assessment of the state of the...