Friday, August 30, 2013
Thursday, August 29, 2013
Iraq’s Kurdish Elections To Go Ahead In September Despite Flawed Voter Rolls
The last barrier to Kurdish
parliamentary elections was recently removed. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
(PUK) and some of the opposition parties were complaining about outdated voter
roles being used. The Election Commission said that they could go through the
lists, but that would delay the vote for two months. Instead, the lists decided
to hold the balloting on time, which will be in September. The parties
therefore decided to maintain the status quo rather than pushing through a much
needed reform.
The Kurdistan Regional Government
(KRG) is finally cleared to hold its parliamentary vote in September 2013. The
Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Change List complained to the
Election Commission that thousands of names on the voter roles belonged to dead
people or were repeated. For example, they claimed that around 90,000 peopled
had died in Kurdistan since March 2009, but that only 440 names were struck from the voter rolls, while a PUK member told the press that 10,000 deceased people voted in the last regional elections in 2009. They were
worried that this could be used for ballot fraud. The Commission replied that
it could go through the lists, but that would mean that the voting would have
to be delayed until November 2013. Neither party was happy with that response,
but decided to hold the elections on time. That means the parliamentary vote
will occur on September 21. Holding up the event would have caused more
controversy in the region. In July, the PUK and Kurdistan Democratic Party
(KDP) agreed to extend Kurdish President Massoud Barzani’s term two more years.
(1) The official reason was that his leadership was needed to ensure the
passage of the draft constitution through the parliament. The real reason was
that Kurdish laws states that he can only stay in office for two years, but he
did not want to go, so the ruling parties simply agreed that he could maintain
his position until the laws were changed, and he could get elected again. The
opposition parties were outraged by this seeming coup. Given that background
the parties did not want to be accused of standing in the way of democracy
anymore. They thought it was more important that the voting go ahead despite
whatever reservations they might have had.
Kurdistan is going to have
parliamentary elections as planned in September, but the process seems flawed.
There appears to be major problems with the voter rolls, which opens up the
possibility for cheating. The Election Commission said it could try to clear
the lists, but it would take time. Given the fact that the presidential
elections were delayed for two years in a backroom deal that violated the law,
the PUK and Change List decided to drop their objections, and go ahead with the
balloting next month. When they do happen the results will likely maintain the
status quo. The KDP faces no real challenges in its strongholds, while the PUK
and Change List will battle it out in Sulaymaniya. If there are reports of
ballot stuffing or other manipulations the flawed voter rolls might have played
a role. It’s rather shocking that some of the parties would agree to let this
issue go when there was a possible solution. Instead, it will be business as usual
in the KRG come September.
FOOTNOTES
1. Awene, Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan, “Iraqi Kurdish parties’ said deal prior to extension of regional
president’s term,” BBC Worldwide Monitoring, 7/2/13
SOURCES
Ahmed, Hevidar, “Ambiguities over
Voter Numbers Remain a Hurdle For Kurdistan Polls,” Rudaw, 7/31/13
- “Kurdistan Polls Still Elusive
Over Voter Lists,” Rudaw, 8/19/13
- “PUK-KDP at Odds over Voter
Registration Lists in Kurdistan Region,” Rudaw, 8/9/13
AIN, “KRG identifies 21, Nov for provincial elections,”
8/7/13
Awene, Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan, “Iraqi Kurdish parties’ said deal prior to extension of regional
president’s term,” BBC Worldwide Monitoring, 7/2/13
Buratha News, “Barham Salih: the
holding of elections is important and undue delay,” 7/31/13
Chomani, Kamal, “Kurdish region no
longer possesses a legal president,” World Bulletin, 7/2/13
Iraq High Election Commission,
“IHEC suggest to run both the Parliamentary and Provincial Council Elections of
Kurdistan Region of Iraq in one day,” 8/25/13
Al Rayy, “Election Commission
rejects the request of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) to reconsider the
voter registers,” 8/20/13
Shafaq News, “Change movement give
up its demand of reconsidering voter’s register,” 8/26/13
- “IHEC demands to postpone
Kurdistan’s Parliament elections,” 7/18/13
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Sadrists Increasing Their Attacks Upon Iraq’s Prime Minister Maliki Once Again
Since the results of the 2013
provincial elections were announced, the Sadr Trend has increased its rhetoric
against Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. The Sadrists have played this double
game before attacking the premier off and on, while taking no substantive
measures against him, and holding onto the most ministries within the
government. Now it appears the party is increasing its criticism in preparation
for the 2014 national vote. Moqtada al-Sadr has always aspired to become the
preeminent Shiite leader in Iraq, and with his showing in the 2013 balloting,
and the deteriorating security situation he may feel like he has a real chance
to surpass Maliki and his State of Law list.
The 2013 governorate level
elections inspired the Sadr List to challenge Premier Maliki one more time. The
Sadrists gained seven seats in the vote going from 41 to 47 seats across 14 provinces. More importantly, they worked with other parties such as the
Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) to shut the premier’s State of Law out
of power in places like Baghdad and Basra. That combined with the wave of
violence that has swept the country recently has opened cracks in Maliki’s
armor, which the Sadrists are now attempting to exploit.
Sadrist lawmaker Shirifi has been
one of the premier’s staunchest critics in the last few weeks (AIN)
The result is that every week a
Sadr politician issues some type of statement criticizing the premier’s rule.
On August 6, lawmaker Hussein al-Shirifi told the press that Maliki should not run again blaming him for the country’s poverty, unemployment, corruption, and
lack of security. Two days later Shirifi claimed that the prime minister had allowed Baathists to infiltrate the security forces, and that they were now
running the government. Then he condemned State of Law parliamentarian Izzat Shabandar for speaking up against the Najaf clergy. August 9, member
of parliament (MP) Awad Awadi said that the latest security operation the
Revenge of the Martyrs was launched too late, followed up by Shirifi
accusing State of Law of spreading sectarianism in the country. On August
11, MP Hussein Mansouri said that families should sue Maliki for the violence
surrounding the Al Qaeda in Iraq raid upon the Abu Ghraib and Taji prisons in
Baghdad, and even claimed that the prime minister was somehow behind the
operation. Two days later, lawmaker Iqbal Ghurabi stated that the Sadrists
put Maliki in office, and therefore did not need to listen to his orders or take his advice. Sadrists then criticized the prime minister for always working alone instead of cooperating with his allies. On August 18,
Mansouri told Maliki that he should resign if he cared about the Iraqi people
since he was failing to run the country. Then on August 20, Shirifi noted
that parliament had passed a law limiting the prime minister to only two terms,
which meant Maliki could not run again next year, and that could not be
changed, while Ghurabi claimed that Maliki’s Dawa Party was aligning with Washington to keep him in power even if that meant bringing back the occupation
of the country. This relentless wave of attacks will likely be the norm
for the next several months until the 2014 elections. This follows previous
criticisms and threats by Sadr where he pulled his ministers out of the cabinet
earlier this year, flirted with the Anbar protests in January, and
considered a no confidence vote against Maliki in the summer of 2012. What
all these events share in common is that they were all for show. Sadr has taken
no real action against the premier even though he could seriously weaken the
government if he wanted to. Rather his strategy has been to try to distance
himself from Maliki publicly, and paint his rule in the worst possible manner,
while maintaining ministries, and keeping the prime minister in office. Sadr
basically wants to have his cake and eat it too.
Moqtada al-Sadr may finally be
gaining enough confidence to take on Maliki head on. In the past, Sadr has
attacked the prime minister to raise his status with the public, while working
behind the scenes to gain concessions for a larger role in the government. Now,
after the 2013 elections, the Sadrists worked with other parties to push the
State of Law out of a few very important provincial governments. The level and
intensity of rhetoric against the premier has increased since then as well. The
problem with the movement is that it has taken similar steps before only to
fall in line behind Maliki after a short period. Sadr definitely would like to
surpass Maliki, and obtain the premiership, but right now it appears that the
latest wave of criticism is just part of the back and forth that the two sides
have taken part in before.
SOURCES
AIN, “Baathists control governance
in Iraq again, says Sadrist MP,” 8/8/13
- “Sadr bloc warns Maliki from
nominating for 3rd term,” 8/6/13
- “Sadrist MP accuses DIP of
allying with Washington to keep Maliki’s post,” 8/21/13
- “Sadrist MP accuses SLC of
adopting sectarian political tendency,” 8/10/13
- “Sadrist MP calls violence victims’ families to sue
Maliki,” 8/11/13
- “Sadrist MP describes recent
security operation as “late procedure,”” 8/9/13
- “Sadrist MP: Maliki to resign his post, if he cares about
citizens’ suffering,” 8/18/13
- “Sadrist MP: Parliament limits
PM’s terms to 2,” 8/20/13
- “Sadrist MP: Sadr Trend rejects
Maliki’s advices,” 8/13/13
- “Sadrist MP: Statements against
Religious Authority to belittle Muslims’ feelings,” 8/8/13
Al-Tamimi, Iyad, “Supreme Council and the Liberals the
National Alliance: Maliki boycotted our meeting and Jaafari failed in
management,” Al-Mada, 8/14/13
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
July 2013 Mixed Bag For Iraq’s Oil Industry
July 2013 had its ups and downs
for Iraq’s oil industry. For the fourth month, overall exports were down. The
main reason was continued problems with leaks and maintenance on the northern
pipeline to Turkey. On the positive side, prices rebounded for crude due to
unrest and output decreases in the Middle East, helping Iraq to earn more than
June. Overall, Iraq’s exports are at a 17-month plateau, but that has not had
any negative consequences for the oil dependent country yet.
Iraq’s exports dropped in July.
There was an average of 2.32 million barrels of day last month. That was
down from 2.33 million barrels in June, and was the lowest average since March
2011. The southern pipeline through Basra actually recovered in July going from
2.19 million barrels in May to 2.13 million barrels in June to 2.32 million in
July. That was the highest amount seen through the south in years. Exports were
affected by bad weather in the Persian Gulf for most of the summer. For all of
2013, Basra’s exports are up from 2.041 million barrels in 2012 to 2.191
million barrels this year. The main reason why Iraq’s exports have had problems
in recent months is the northern Kirkuk line to Turkey. It has witnessed a
five-month decline from 339,200 barrels a day in February 2013 to just 180,600
in July, a real low-mark. The major issue has been leaks and repair work. On
June 19, the line was shut down due to leaks, and not re-opened until July4. The maintenance was slowed due to an insurgent attack upon workers. The
line was immediately shut down however, and oil did not start flowing until July 16. There was another stoppage on July 21, and a bombing on July 28 that contributed to the Kirkuk line being down for almost the entire month
just like it was in June. That has led to the average flow through the pipeline
going from 373,300 barrels a day last year to 269,100 this year. The northern
line is very old, and really showed its age during the summer. Almost every
month for the last two years it has been bombed, but those usually do not have
a real affect upon exports. This recent wave of leaks and maintenance work
however has had a devastating effect upon the entire country’s output, and may
not be resolved anytime soon resulting in Iraq remaining at its present
plateau.
Iraq Oil Exports And Profits
2011-2013
Month
|
Avg.
Exports
(Mil/
Bar/
Day)
|
Avg. Price Per Barrel
|
Revenue (Bill)
|
Jan. 11
|
2.16
|
$90.78
|
$6.082
|
Feb.
|
2.20
|
$98.44
|
$6.064
|
Mar.
|
2.15
|
$107.13
|
$7.167
|
Apr.
|
2.14
|
$114.26
|
$7.342
|
May
|
2.22
|
$108
|
$7.45
|
Jun.
|
2.27
|
$105.17
|
$7.173
|
Jul.
|
2.16
|
$108.79
|
$7.311
|
Aug.
|
2.18
|
$104.91
|
$7.124
|
Sep.
|
2.10
|
$104.89
|
$6.619
|
Oct.
|
2.08
|
$104.04
|
$6.742
|
Nov.
|
2.13
|
$106.59
|
$6.833
|
Dec.
|
2.14
|
$106.18
|
$7.061
|
2011 Avg.
|
2.16
|
$105.00
|
$6.913
|
Jan. 12
|
2.10
|
$109.08
|
$7.123
|
Feb.
|
2.01
|
$112.92
|
$6.595
|
Mar.
|
2.31
|
$117.99
|
$8.472
|
Apr.
|
2.50
|
$116.79
|
$8.795
|
May
|
2.45
|
$103.03
|
$7.831
|
Jun.
|
2.40
|
$90.09
|
$6.487
|
Jul.
|
2.51
|
$97.14
|
$7.577
|
Aug.
|
2.56
|
$106.22
|
$8.445
|
Sep.
|
2.59
|
$107.59
|
$8.371
|
Oct.
|
2.62
|
$105.51
|
$8.578
|
Nov.
|
2.62
|
$104.32
|
$8.200
|
Dec.
|
2.34
|
$103.72
|
$7.551
|
2012
Avg.
|
2.41
|
$106.20
|
$7.835
|
Jan. 13
|
2.35
|
$104.92
|
$7.672
|
Feb.
|
2.53
|
$107.66
|
$7.644
|
Mar.
|
2.41
|
$103.76
|
$7.772
|
Apr.
|
2.62
|
$98.70
|
$7.764
|
May
|
2.48
|
$97.23
|
$7.477
|
Jun.
|
2.33
|
$97.41
|
$6.799
|
Jul.
|
2.32
|
$101.00
|
$7.272
|
2013 Avg.
|
2.45
|
$101.61
|
$7.521
|
Oil
Exports Through Basra 2012-2013
January 2012 1.711 mil/bar/day
January 2012 1.711 mil/bar/day
February
1.639 mil/bar/day
March 1.917
mil/bar/day
April 2.115
mil/bar/day
May 2.086
mil/bar/day
June 2.085
mil/bar/day
July 2.216
mil/bar/day
August
2.252 mil/bar/day
September
2.178 mil/bar/day
October
2.172 mil/bar/day
November
2.122 mil/bar/day
December
2.022 mil/bar/day
2012 Avg. 2.042 mil/bar/day
January
2013 2.093 mil/bar/day
February
2.196 mil/bar/day
March 2.1
mil/bar/day
April 2.31
mil/bar/day
May 2.19
mil/bar/day
June 2.13
mil/bar/day
July 2.32
mil/bar/day
2013 Avg. 2.191 mil/bar/day
Oil Exports Through Kirkuk 2012-2013
January
2012 393,500 bar/day
February
375,800 bar/day
March
400,000 bar/day
April
393,300 bar/day
May 364,500
bar/day
June
316,600 bar/day
July
300,000 bar/day
August
312,900 bar/day
September
420,000 bar/day
October
451,600 bar/day
November
426,600 bar/day
December
325,800 bar/day
2012 Avg. 373,300 bar/day
January
2013 264,500 bar/day
February
339,200 bar/day
March
316,100 bar/day
April
306,600 bar/day
May 283,800
bar/day
June
193,300 bar/day
July 180,600
bar/day
2013 Avg. 269,100 bar/day
Iraq did benefit from a rebound in
prices in July. After prices being below $100 per barrel for the country’s oil
from April to June, it rose to $101.00 per barrel last month. That was largely due
to cuts in production from Libya and the unrest in Egypt. That led Iraq to earn
$7.272 billion in July. That was still the second lowest amount for the year.
Prices are still below their 2012 mark of $106.20 per barrel, currently
standing at $101.52 in 2013. Profits have declined as well from an average of
$7.835 billion in 2012 to $7.485 billion in 2013. Luckily for Iraq these prices
and revenues are still above those set in the 2013 budget, so the government,
which is dependent upon petroleum has not faced any real consequences from the
up and down nature of the industry this year.
While Iraq has not had any
negative consequences from the present export plateau, it does bring into
question its development plans for the future. Iraq is hoping to become one of
the largest oil producers in the world in the near future. Each year it claims
that it will witness a large jump in production and exports, which have rarely
been met. In December 2012 for instance, the Oil Ministry said at an OPEC
meeting that it would reach 3.7 million barrels a day in production by the end
of 2013, which was then revised down to 3.4 million barrels. In July, production
was at 3.25 million. Because the country lacks adequate storage facilities,
when exports are reduced the output at the fields has to be reduced as well.
This is a major complaint of the international oil companies operating in Iraq.
Their contracts with the government set production levels they have to reach. This has led to all of the businesses to begin negotiations with the
central government to revise their deals. It also highlights the country’s lack
of infrastructure to sustain any large increases right now. The Oil Ministry
has plans to address that issue, but its work is very slow due to red tape and
lack of trained staff. The result is that the current constraints on
development will remain in place for the foreseeable future.
SOURCES
Agence France
Presse, “Iraq Oil Exports,” 8/20/13
- “Iraq oil
exports hit 16-month low despite higher production,” 8/8/13
Dananer,
“Kirkuk Line – Ceyhan: the resume and stop,” 8/1/13
Mackey, Peg,
“Iraq headed for 1st annual oil output drop in three years,”
Reuters, 7/29/13
Al-Mada, “Iraq
is losing 400 thousand barrels of oil because of the violence and attacks
threaten to paralyze the line Kirkuk – Ceyhan,” 7/27/13
- “Resume
pumping oil from the Kirkuk oilfields to the Turkish port of Ceyhan,” 7/4/13
Platts,
“Iraq’s Kirkuk crude shut again following second failed restart,” 7/12/13
Radio Nawa,
“Resume pumping oil through the line of Kirkuk – Ceyhan after a stopover due to
leakage 3 weeks ago,” 7/11/13
Rasheed,
Ahmed, “UPDATE 2-Iraq oil exports stagnate, deep cuts ahead due to port work,” Reuters,
8/7/13
Reuters, “Bomb
attack halts oil flow through Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline: Iraq officials,” 7/28/13
- “Crude oil
flows through Iraq-Turkey pipeline down,” 7/22/13
Monday, August 26, 2013
Iraq’s Moqtada al-Sadr Trying To Rally His Supporters With “Retirement”
In August 2013, Iraq’s mercurial
Moqtada al-Sadr said that he was quitting politics. His movement at first
claimed that this was a distortion by the media, and that their leader was
simply taking a break after Ramadan. That story quickly changed as hundreds of
his followers and militiamen pledged their allegiance, and begged that he
return. This appears to just be a ploy by Sadr to rally his forces, and deal
with factions that might have been considering breaking away.
Letter to Sadr signed by his
militia commanders pledging their support with their bloody thumbprints (Al-Mada)
Sadr’s movement seemed unsure of
their leaders’ status at first, but then turned it into a rallying point. At
the beginning of August, it was announced that Sadr was withdrawing from politics. That story was then denied. It was said that Moqtada was simply
upset with the security situation, and his conflict with the League of the Righteous,
a rival Shiite party, and taking a break as a result. Then it was revealed that
Sadr was in Qom, Iran where his followers visited him with a letter signed in blood by his militia leaders pledging their allegiance. A few days later
hundreds of Sadrists rallied in Najaf to renew their support for Moqtada as
well. They called for him to reverse his decision, and return to the
national stage. Before this, Sadr was complaining that people were tarnishing his
group’s image, and collecting money for their own benefit. This was a theme
that he had been pushing for several months, and resulted in him creating a
special committee led by Hazim Araji to reform his militia. In July, Sadr
warned that the name of the Mahdi Army was being exploited, and that factions
might be contemplating breaking away. Then in just a few days, he froze the commission with little explanation. The Sadr Trend has always been a
fractious group. His militia especially was never under central control rather
comprising local armed groups with little coordination. Pats of his political
movement have also broken off throughout the years. Apparently, Sadr was facing
another such situation, and felt frustrated at his inability to deal with it;
hence the formation and quick suspension of the Araji led commission. This might
have then led him to claim that he was pulling out of politics, and retiring to
Iran as a way to rally his supporters, and find out who was truly with him.
Some have also speculated that Sadr might have bowed out due to clashes with the League of the Righteous, which is vying for the mantle of being the
true legacy of Ayatollah Mohammed Sadiq al-Sadr, Moqtada’s father. However,
there have been shootouts, assassinations, and confrontations between the
groups for months now, and there didn’t appear to be any large escalation
before Sadr’s announcement. Internal problems within the Trend appear to be a
more plausible explanation for his course of action.
Moqtada al-Sadr is coming off a
high point after the 2013 provincial elections, and now may want to enforce
some order throughout his large and fractious movement. His party was not only
able to gain seats in local governments this year, but posed a serious challenge
to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law. Since then his followers have
become more and more confrontational and critical of the premier. Then it was
announced that Sadr was withdrawing from politics, which at first was denied,
but then became a huge issue within the organization. With a national vote
pending next year, perhaps Sadr thought this was the time to get his house in
order, and deal with whatever groups were not following his orders. His tactic
has succeeded in getting his forces riled up with their acts of devotion
towards him. This will probably lead to a staged return where Sadr will assure
everyone that he is now back, but more importantly, he is reassured of his
command over his movement.
SOURCES
Alsumaria, “Moqtada As Sader quits Iraqi politics and closes
down his office,” 8/5/13
Bezhan, Frud, “Reports Of Muqtada Al-Sadr’s Political Demise
May Be Greatly Exaggerated,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 8/19/13
Buratha News, “Sadr freezes
Commission Hazem al-Araji, and demanding leader of the
Dar Addustour, “Violent clashes between the Mahdi Army and Asaib,”
8/3/13
Al-Mada, “Araji: We want to restore prestige to the Mahdi
Army in the street through the cultural and ideological work,” 7/23/13
- “Sadr accused “the people of falsehood” of trying to
assassinate al-Araji, and declared three days of mourning,” 6/3/13
- “Sadrists “renew their allegiance” to their leader and
they call to reverse retire from politics,” 8/20/13
- “Tensions between the Sadrists and Asaib worry
neighborhoods of Baghdad and al-Khazali and clings to the truce,” 6/11/13
National Iraqi News Agency, “Sadr condemns clashes between
his supporters and / Ahlil-Haq militia/in Baghdad,” 6/3/13
New Sabah, “Sadr solemn assembly a “threat” addressed to the
Government,” 8/6/13
Al Rafidayn, “Sadr’s Mahdi Army: Be ready to support the
doctrine,” 7/21/13
Sotaliraq, “Mahdi Army Leaders “blood” loyalty and
obedience,” 8/17/13
Ur News Agency, “War fires between Asaib and the Sadrists,”
7/4/13
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