I was cited by Michael Knights and Alex Mello in “Losing
Mosul, Regenerating In Diyala: How The Islamic State Could Exploit Iraq’s
Sectarian Tinderbox,” in CTC Sentinel. I was also mentioned in "IS kills hundreds of prisoners in Mosul as offensive closes in: UN" in Middle East Eye.
Monday, October 31, 2016
Mosul Campaign Day Fourteen, Oct 30, 2016
The joint Iraqi forces were pushing in on Mosul from all
sides on October 30. The Hashd who are now moving from the south towards Tal
Afar west of Mosul made some more conspiratorial accusations against the U.S., while
threatening to go to Syria after Mosul was liberated. Ex-Ninewa Governor Atheel
Nujafi also gave his thoughts on the campaign.
The Iraqi army, Peshmerga and Hashd all took towns on
October 30. The 9th Division took Ali Rash in the
east, the Peshmerga
two towns, and the Hashd six as well in
the southwest. The Hashd recently joined the fray headings towards Tal Afar to
the west of Mosul. An Iraqi security official told Reuters that the
Islamic State recently reinforced that town with more fighters. The spokesman for Asaib Ahl
Al-Haq accused the U.S. of trying to hinder their operations by scrambling
their communications. The pro-Iranian Hashd groups often make these types of
comments including ones about the Americans supporting the Islamic State, so
this was nothing new. Overall, most of the other joint forces ere consolidating
the front before they renewed their push on Mosul.
The Hashd and an Iraqi officials have talked about
continuing their fight into Syria. National Security Adviser Falah al-Fayad
said that the wars in Iraq and Syria were one in the same and Iraqi forces may
have to enter the latter to fight IS. The next day one of the spokesman for the
Hashd, Ahmed al-Assadi said Iraqis would
go to Syria to help President Assad against the Islamists. There are thousands
of Iraqis already fighting
in Syria for various armed groups organized and funded by Iran. If Iraqi forces
were to officially cross the border into its neighbor’s territory that would be
a huge escalation, but these comments appear to be just talk for now, although
Fayad’s was the first to come from a government official.
Several months ago the Iraqi army captured the Qayara air
base south of Mosul. U.S. engineers set to work on the facility immediately,
and in the first week of the campaign it was re-opened. On October 30 the first
Iraqi air force transport plane landed at the field. This will be a huge help
to the Iraqi forces as logistics is still one of their weak points.
Ex-Ninewa governor Atheel Nujafi made some comments
about the on going battle for Mosul and what he thought of the future of the
province. He said the Hashd and Turkish Workers’ Party (PKK) needed to stay out
of the city otherwise there would be trouble. He went on to say that he
understood why sections of the province wanted to join Kurdistan, and that
Ninewa should become a federal region after IS was expelled. Nujafi is aligned
with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Turkey, and lives in Kurdistan,
which is why he supported the Kurds annexing the disputed areas of Ninewa and
opposed the PKK. He is also an opponent of the Baghdad government, and that is
why he wanted Ninewa to become a region. Nujafi was hoping to use the Mosul
campaign as a way to make a political comeback, and he has his own armed force
the Hashd al-Watani backed by the KDP and Ankara. They have not taken part in
the campaign however. He also has an arrest warrant out for him, which means he
cannot safely leave Kurdish controlled areas where central government warrants
are not usually served without the threat of being arrested. Together that
means he’s likely to have little influence on the future of Ninewa.
SOURCES
Buratha News, “Military spokesman for the League of the
Righteous: American forces trying to block western Mosul military operations,”
10/30/16
Face Iraq, “Falah al-Fayad: After the battle of Mosul, we
may have to enter areas of Syria to hunt down Daesh,” 10/29/16
- “Media cell announced the landing of a C-130 air cargo
plane for the first time at Qayyarah base since its liberation,” 10/30/16
Iraq News Network, “Najafi: 80% of the people of Mosul are
demanding Nineveh province be saved from the popular crowd crimes and the
sectarian Baghdad government,” 10/30/16
Kalin, Stephen and Georgy, Michael, "Iraqi Shi'ite commander
says Mosul battle 'no picnic' as troops advance," Reuters, 10/30/16
Al Maalomah, "Popular crowd freed the village of Al Amarena
southwest of Mosul," 10/30/16
Rudaw, “Iraqi Shiite militia: after Mosul we’ll go to Syria
to fight for Assad,” 10/30/16
Al Sumaria, "Badr announces the freeing of five villages west
of Mosul," 10/30/16
Sunday, October 30, 2016
Mosul Campaign Day Thirteen, Oct 29, 2016
The Hashd and Federal Police were moving southwest of Mosul
heading for the town of Tal Afar on the thirteenth day of the Mosul operation.
That led to more inflammatory remarks by Turkey. There were also more executions
by the Islamic State and displacement.
On October 29, 2016 the Hashd announced
they were joining the Hashd operation. The aim was to capture the towns of
Hatra, Tal Abta and Tal Afar. The various groups were taking three
routes to Tal Afar from the southeast. They were supported by elements of
the Federal Police. Together they freed 15 towns.
The Hashd entering the fray led to more angry comments by Turkey’s
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He threatened to reinforce the
border town of Silopi near Tal Afar to protect the town’s Turkmen against
any Hashd terrorism. On the other hand, the Turkish Foreign minister offered
diplomatic talks to resolve Turkey’s military base in Bashiqa, which Baghdad
has demanded by abandoned. Ankara has constantly made these types of comments
as it considers Mosul under its sphere of influence. It does not want the Hashd
involved in the campaign, seeing them as pro-Iranian, sectarian actors. It also
wants to be part of the liberation process to ensure its influence, but all it
has done so far is anger many Iraqis and Baghdad.
The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) was also at work. The army
and Federal Police said they had freed Shura
for the second time. It was originally declared freed the second day of the
operation, but that appeared to be an exaggeration. The 9th Division
of the Iraqi army liberated another six villages.
In Mosul, there was more news of massacres and displacement.
The Iraqi Human Rights Commission claimed
100 people were executed in Mosul. Iraq Oil Report also received a story from a
resident that civilians were trying to abandon
the city. There are still reports of sporadic attacks by resistance movements
against the Islamic State inside Mosul.
Finally, there were some new figures on the number of
displaced that this campaign has caused. On October 28 the United Nations High
Commission for Refugees stated
that 16,566 people had left their homes since the Mosul campaign started on
October 17. At the same time, around 900 people had already left the camp at
Debaga and gone back to their homes in the Qayara district south of Mosul.
October 29 the International Organization for Migration had approximately 17,500
displaced so far. The U.N. has mentioned that there is a constant flow of
people south of Mosul with people fleeing the Islamic State, but others
returning to their towns as son as they are liberated.
SOURCES
Abdallah,
Amir, "Human Rights Commission: ISIS executes 100 civilians in
Mosul," Iraqi News, 10/29/16
Adel, Loaa, "Federal Police liberate 2 villages in Shura
area," 10/29/16
Agence France Presse, “Iraq forces launch operation to cut
Mosul off from Syria,” 10/29/16
Bas News, “Turkey Aims to Reinforce Military on Iraq’s
Border against Militias,” 10/29/16
Buratha
News, "Popular crowd forces exploded 20 bombs during operations west of
Mosul," 10/29/16
Al
Forat, "Pictures .. Five martyrs of the Ashura brigade in the battle to
liberate Mosul," 10/29/16
Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul: Oct. 29, 2016,” 10/29/16
Iraqi News, "Iraqi forces liberate al-Shura district south of
Mosul," 10/18/16
Al Maalomah, "The martyrdom of four soldiers in bombing by
the international coalition north of Mosul," 10/29/16
Morris, Loveday and Salim, Mustafa, “Shiite militias join
offensive to retake Mosul from Islamic State,” Washington Post, 10/29/16
NINA, “A Turkish invitation to Baghdad to resolve the
Ba’shiqah camp crisis diplomatically,” 10/28/16
NRT TV, "Peshmerga Forces Foil ISIS Attack East of
Mosul," 10/29/16
Rudaw, "LIVE UPDATES MOSUL OFFENSIVE: DAY 13," 10/29/16
UN High Commissioner for Refugees, “Iraq: Situation Flash
Update, 28 October 2016,” 10/28/16
Xinhua, "Iraqi forces free town from IS in south of
Mosul," 10/29/16
Saturday, October 29, 2016
Mosul Campaign Day Twelve, Oct 28, 2016
The next phase of the Mosul operation opened on October 28
when the Hashd opened the western front pushing towards Tal Afar. The United
Nations also documented thousands of people being kidnapped by the Islamic
State to be used as human shields. The insurgents also continued their
wholesale slaughter of civilians. Finally, Turkey issued more statements
attempting to assert themselves into the campaign.
The Hashd finally entered the battle on a large scale on
October 28. They took two
towns west of Mosul
heading towards Tal Afar. Up to this point the Islamic State’s corridor to
Syria has remained opened. Now the Hashd and Federal Police are going to try to
cut that off.
The Federal Police in the south freed
two villages as well. Otherwise there was no other news by the Iraqi and
Kurdish forces. A pause has been coming as the forces solidify their frontlines
before making their next push onto Mosul itself.
As the Islamic State has been losing territory it has taken
thousands of people with them to be used as hostages. The United Nations recorded
around 5,370 families, approximately 60,000 people who had been forced to
retreat with the militants. 160 came form the Qayara district, 150 from Hamam
al-Alil area, and 2,210 from the Nimrud district. These people have been taken
to Hamam Al-Alil and Mosul to be used as human shields. Those that have not
gone with IS have been killed.
There were more reports of mass executions by IS. The U.N.
had 232 former members of the security forces killed in the first week of the
operation. On October 27 18
were killed in Shura and 22
in Mosul, with another 41
outside Mosul on October 28.
IS announced that it had sent in an extra unit to Mosul to
bolster the defenses. IS media said
that the Al-Sham battalion came form Raqqa to the city. A resident recounted
that new fighters had come from Syria as well.
Finally, Turkey continued
to claim that it was taking part in the campaign. Ankara’s Foreign Minister
Mouloud Jawish Oglu in a press conference stated that 3,000 Iraqis that it had
trained were taking part in the Mosul operation. That was probably a reference
to ex-Governor Atheel Nujafi’s Hashd al-Watani that has not fact been involved
so far. He went on to claim that Turkish planes were carrying out missions, and
that his country was one of the most involved in the fight against IS. These
statements and others have constantly inflamed Iraqis and the government who
have demanded that Turkey remove its troops from Ninewa and stop trying to
interfere. President Recep Erdogan however continues to ignore Baghdad.
SOURCES
Al
Aalem, "War Media; The deaths of nearly 300 Daash and the liberation of
many villages over the last 24 hour period," 10/28/16
Buratha
News, "Popular crowd frees Huwaider village southwest of Mosul,"
10/28/16
-
"Popular crowd frees Omhervh area south of Mosul," 10/28/16
Cumming-Bruce,
Nick, "ISIS Kills More Than 200 as Battle for Mosul Intensifies," New
York Times, 10/28/16
Iraqi News, “Baghdadi announces arrival of al-Sham Battalion
to raise his fighters’ morale,” 10/27/16
-
"ISIS executes 22 persons by electrocution in central Mosul," 10/27/16
NINA,
"Daesh executed 18 young residents of the Shura district during the
process of storming south of Mosul," 10/27/16
- “Turkish Foreign Ministry: Three thousand Iraqi fighters
trained by us fighting against Daesh,” 10/27/16
UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights,” Battle
for Mosul: ISIL forces thousands of civilians from their homes and executes
hundreds,” 10/28/16
Friday, October 28, 2016
Mosul Campaign Day Eleven, Oct 27, 2016
The Mosul operation continued to go in fits and spurts. With
the first phase of the operation coming to an end, there are days when there
are fewer advances, which was what happened on October 27. On the other side,
IS was building its defenses while exploiting and murdering civilians. The U.S.
also tried to mediate between Iraq and Turkey once more, and there was more
displacement from the fighting.
From October 26-27, the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and
Peshmerga freed over two dozen towns. On October 26 twenty towns were declared liberated,
but seven of them were said to have been reached in pervious days. Similarly,
on October 27 four more towns were cleared, but one of them the Kurds claimed
they had already gone through. Since 2014 Baghdad and Irbil have been using a
victory narrative that promotes constant advances and victories over the
Islamic State. Unfortunately that has led to some exaggeration as shown with
the examples above.
So far the joint forces have been pushing towards Mosul from
all sides but the west, but that is about to change. The Hashd and Federal
Police have been charged with capturing Tal Afar, an important border town with
Syria that has traditionally been used by IS to ferry in fighters and supplies
into Iraq. Hashd units started moving into position to
start this new phase in the offensive.
In al-Houd the residents rose up and
expelled the Islamic State. A resident who took part in the fight said they
asked the army for help but were turned down. He was none too pleased. This was
the third or fourth town that has rebelled against the militants since the
Mosul campaign started.
Details about how the Islamic State has been using human
shields have started coming out. The Washington
Post interviewed several people about what happened to them. One was
Mohammed Ali who retold when IS was leaving his village the group got on
loudspeakers and told the inhabitants they had to go with the fighters to be
used as shields or they would be killed.
Depending upon which stories you read the Islamic State has
either been evacuating Mosul from the start, or is sending in reinforcements. The
National
Iraqi News Agency for example talked with a Mosul resident who saw several
hundred IS fighters arrive from Raqqa. That same day Iraq
Oil Report heard from a civilian who claimed IS men were leaving the city.
The U.S. military however told CNN
that it had not seen any large movement of IS members in or out of Mosul.
What is not disputed is that the insurgents are preparing to
defend the city. IS was setting up concrete barriers and forcing people out of
their homes to lay booby-traps. The disadvantage the group is facing is that it
only has a few thousand fighters to protect a huge urban area. Another issue is
that there is a large population inside still, including IS families. That
means the group cannot lay down defenses in depth as it did in Tikrit and
Ramadi previously, which were almost empty of people. IS is said to have left
much of the eastern side of the city, and that is likely where there will be
more bunkers, IEDs, etc.
IS continued with its executions in Mosul. 22 more people
were reportedly killed.
The number of displaced went up again. On October
26 the United Nations had 10,500 people having left their homes. The next
day that had gone up to 11,700. The Associated
Press found that some of the displaced were being arbitrarily detained and
some even executed as they escaped the Islamic State. AP talked to a local
security man at a checkpoint who said he had arrested 100 people on suspicion
that they were IS supporters and killed two of them. In the wake of every
security operation there is vetting that needs to be done to weed out
insurgents. The problem is that this is often done in an opaque fashion, people
have been held for long periods, sometimes incommunicado, and entire towns have
sometimes been declared off limits and been left empty.
Finally, the U.S. is still attempting to mend fences between
Iraq and Turkey. President Obama called
Turkish President Recep Erdogan on October 26. Obama told Erdogan he should
concentrate on fighting the Islamic State and cooperate with Baghdad. Given
Ankara’s belligerent comments and attitude the White House’s attempt probably
fell on deaf ears.
SOURCES
Al
Aalem, "War Media: freed Tilkaif Gas Plant," 10/26/16
ARA
News, "Kurdish Peshmerga, Iraqi forces expel ISIS from nine more villages
near Mosul," 10/27/16
Bas
News, "Iraqi Security Forces Advancing Towards Central Mosul,"
10/24/16
-
"Peshmerga liberates 3 Villages in Northern Mosul," 10/23/16
-
"Peshmerga Liberates Another Christian Village Near Mosul," 10/26/16
- “Villagers Drive out IS from Their Village in Southern
Mosul,” 10/27/16
BBC, “Mosul battle: IS ‘loses hundreds of fighters’ – US
generals,” 10/27/16
Bergen, Peter, “ISIS leaders may flee Mosul as their ranks
are decimated,” CNN, 10/27/16
Buratha News, “Recent development in the liberation
campaign,” 10/27/16
eKurd,
"Iraqi Kurdistan News in brief - October 26, 2016," 10/26/16
-
"Iraqi Kurdistan News in brief - October 27, 2016," 10/27/16
George, Susannah, “Iraqis dispense what they call justice
for alleged militants,” Associated Press, 10/27/16
Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul: Oct 26, 2016,” 10/26/16
- “Inside Mosul: Oct. 27, 2016,” 10/27/16
Iraqi
News, "Federal Police forces liberate 2 villages north of Shura,"
10/27/16
-
"ISIS executes 22 persons by electrocution in central Mosul,"
10/27/16
-
"Peshmerga forces recapture Dirk village near Bashiqa," 10/26/16
Al
Mada, "Freed five villages in the vicinity of Bartila," 10/24/16
Morris, Loveday, “Islamic State militants are kidnapping
thousands of people to use as human shields,” Washington Post, 10/27/16
NINA, “Eyewitnesses to a US network: Hundreds of Daesh
terrorists arrive in Mosul, coming from the Syrian Al-Raqqa,” 10/26/16
-
"The Joint forces control Al- Hamdaniya center southeast of Mosul,"
10/26/16
-
"Peshmerga Clash with Daesh in Ba'shiqah, liberate villages 2 Villages
north of Mosul," 10/23/16
-
"Urgent anti-terrorism device forces liberated seven villages and areas on
the outskirts of Mosul," 10/26/16
NRT
TV, "Iraqi Troops Continue Clearing Villages Around Mosul," 10/26/16
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Obama Asks Erdogan To
Coordinate With U.S., Iraq In Fight Against IS,” 10/27/16
Rudaw,
"LIVE UPDATES MOSUL BATTLE: Day 4," 10/20/16
-
"UPDATES: Mosul offensive, Day 8," 10/24/16
-
"UPDATES: Mosul offensive, Day 9," 10/25/16
Xinhua,
"Iraqi forces advance closer to new positions outside IS-held Mosul,"
10/26/16
-
"Iraqi forces recapture town from IS as troops push on Mosul,"
10/22/16
Thursday, October 27, 2016
Mosul Campaign Day Ten, Oct 26, 2016
The Iraqi and Peshmerga forces were back at work on the
tenth day of the Mosul operation. Several more towns were freed, but this was
more consolidation of the front before the second phase of the campaign was
launched. The Hashd are also going to enter the fray soon. In Mosul there were
more mass executions by the Islamic State, and over 10,000 people have been
displaced by the fighting, although several thousand had also been able to
return.
The joint forces were gaining more ground on October 26. The
Golden Division east of Mosul took the town of Khaza,
which it claimed
it had freed two days before. Army units moving from the south and east
liberated five towns plus a gas
plant in Tal Kief. Finally, the Peshmerga took five villages east of Mosul,
but one of those was said to have been gone through three days before. The
joint forces have a bad habit of claiming towns are freed before they are even
reached or while fighting is still going on within them. These moves were the
last in the first
phase of the Mosul operation, and meant to stabilize the front. The next
step will include the first action on the western front with the Hashd and
Federal Police taking on Tal
Afar. Asaib Ahl Al-Haq said they would be in the lead for that operation.
In Mosul there are conflicting stories about Islamic State
fighters. Since the start of the campaign there have been plenty of news
reports that Islamic State members were leaving
the city. Then there have been others that they are sending in reinforcements.
Which of these is true will not be determined until the city is assaulted.
IS was also accused of more executions. On October 25 there
were stories that up to 208 people were killed by the group. On October 26,
there was a report
that 332 had died in Hamam Al-Alil and another town. Two main explanations have
been given for why IS is executing so many people. One was that they were
carrying out a type of scorched earth policy of killing civilians from towns
they had to give up to the government. The other was that they had taken
several hundred people as human shields to protect their retreat. After their
purpose was served IS then got rid of them by shooting them. It is impossible
to confirm these accounts right now.
Different organizations are still announcing different
figures for the number of displaced from the Mosul campaign. The Iraqi
Red Crescent took in 2,000 people in Al-Khazer camp north of the city. Most
of them came from villages east of Mosul. The United Nations gave
the largest overall number so far of 10,500. Most of those are not in camps but
being hosted by other people. It also noted that there is a huge ebb and flow
of civilians around Mosul with over 3,000 having gone back to their homes
almost immediately after they were freed by the joint forces. This was mostly
to the south of Mosul. Finally, the UNHCR was flying in 7,000
tents from Dubai and Amman to house displaced. On October 24 an Iraqi
parliamentarian on the displacement committee complained that many internal
refugees were living out in the elements because the government had stolen the
money meant to aid them due to corruption.
SOURCES
Al
Aalem, "War Media: freed Tilkaif Gas Plant," 10/26/16
Bas
News, "Iraqi Security Forces Advancing Towards Central Mosul,"
10/24/16
- “New IDPs from Mosul at Risk: Iraqi MP,” 10/24/16
-
"Peshmerga Liberates Another Christian Village Near Mosul," 10/26/16
Buratha
News, "Iraqi army frees village south of Mosul," 10/26/16
eKurd,
"Iraqi Kurdistan News in brief - October 26, 2016," 10/26/16
Al-Ghazi, Muhannad, “Anti-IS troops are gaining ground on
multiple fronts in Iraq,” Al Monitor, 10/25/16
Iraq Red Crescent Society, “2,000 displaced people flee from
villages eastern of Mosul to Al-khazer camp,” 10/26/16
Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul: Oct. 26, 2016,” 10/26/16
Iraqi
News, "Peshmerga forces recapture Dirk village near Bashiqa,"
10/26/16
Kharmees,
Ahmed, "Mosul Operation: First Stage Ended," Bas News, 10/26/16
Al
Masalah, "Daesh executed 332 civilians in Hamam al-Alil and village of
Aeryj in Mosul," 10/26/16
NINA,
"Peshmerga Clash with Daesh in Ba'shiqah, liberate villages 2 Villages north
of Mosul," 10/23/16
NRT
TV, "Iraqi Troops Continue Clearing Villages Around Mosul," 10/26/16
Rudaw, “UPDATES: Mosul offensive day 10,” 10/26/16
Shafaq
News, "Source: Daesh executed 20 policemen and hold about 70 other
soldiers, Hama Al-Alil south of Mosul," 10/26/16
UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs,
“Iraq: Mosul Humanitarian Response Situation Report #3 (23-25 October 2016),”
10/26/16
Xinhua,
"Iraqi forces advance closer to new positions outside IS-held Mosul,"
10/26/16
Wednesday, October 26, 2016
Mosul Campaign Day Nine, Oct 25, 2016
The ninth day of the Mosul operation was marked by a few new
towns taken by the joint Iraqi forces, but really the main story was about the mass
executions by the Islamic State.
First, there was little movement by the joint forces. The Peshmerga
freed three towns including Batnaya in the
northeast, which they claimed
to have cleared five days ago. The Kurds announced that they were almost done
with their role in the campaign, so less news can be expected on their fronts. The
Golden Division liberated one village in the east. The Federal police also freed
up to 200 families that had been snatched by the Islamic State from three towns
south of Mosul. They were likely used as human shields.
Most of the news on October 25 was about the Islamic State.
Reports had them executing 15 in Safina, 60 in
Hamam al-Alil, and 78 in Mosul. The United Nations has also received
further stories of other mass killings. Those included 6 killed in
Rufaila, 50 former police bodies being found, and
another 70 dead civilians in Tal Nasr that occurred over the last week. IS was
said to be killing people as they were forced out of areas, and also executing
others after they had been used as human shields to protect insurgents as they
fled in the face of the joint forces. Similar stories can be expected in the
future.
In Mosul IS continues to face difficulties. First, it has shifted most of
its families and fighters to the right bank of the city, and planted
explosives on all the bridges connecting that side with the other side of
the city. The press has said that IS only has 2,000-5,000 fighters to protect
this metropolis limiting their defensive options. It looks like IS intends to
put up a tough fight in the surrounding towns, but when Mosul itself is reached
it will carry out delaying attacks and then fall back to the right bank to put
up its last stand, knocking out the bridges to slow the Iraqi forces.
Finally, Iraq’s Displacement Ministry noted that 3,802
had been displaced in the last few days. Camps have been built in the area with
a capacity for 300,000 people. The question is if these are in the right
locations. For example, many were built in the north and east, but lots of
people have gone west where there is no fighting with some even heading into
Syria. A parliamentarian from the displacement committee also criticized the
government saying that it was not adequately prepared because of corruption
stealing money meant for supplies.
SOURCES
Bas News, “New IDPs from Mosul at Risk: Iraqi MP,” 10/24/16
- "Peshmerga
Liberates a Christian Village in Northern Mosul," 10/20/16
- “Thousands of People Displaced from Liberated Areas in
Mosul,” 10/25/16
BBC, “Mosul battle: UN receives reports of IS atrocities,”
10/25/16
Face
Iraq, "Sources: Daesh terrorists executed 55 young men from the Wadi
al-Mansur," 10/25/16
Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul: Oct. 25, 2016,” 10/25/16
Lynch, Hannah, “Inside Mosul: Brutal tactics to control
civilians as ISIS prepares to fight for city,” Rudaw, 10/25/16
Al
Maalomah, "Foiled Daesh attack south of Mosul," 10/25/16
-
"Learned the importance of Kokjla region after being storemd by
counterterrorism," 10/25/16
NINA, “Security Forces Free 200 Families In Qayyarah Taken
By Daesh As Human Shields,” 10/24/16
NRT
TV, "Peshmerga Forces take Village Northeast Of Mosul," 10/25/16
Rudaw,
"Inside Mosul: Brutal tactics to control civilians as ISIS prepares to
fight for city," 10/25/16
-
"UPDATES: Mosul offensive, Day 9," 10/25/16
Tuesday, October 25, 2016
Mosul Campaign Day Eight, Oct 24, 2016
The Iraqi and Kurdish forces were pushing in on Mosul from
the east and south on the eighth day of the Mosul operation. Turkey once again
inflamed Iraqi sentiment, while within Mosul itself IS continued to deal with
its imminent demise.
New casualty reports came out for October 23. 19 Peshmerga
were killed and 78 wounded, along with 6 displaced dying
and 10 being wounded by an IED. The true figures are much higher as Baghdad and
Irbil are not releasing any numbers. Only the occasional reporter at the front
provides a glimpse into losses.
The Iraqi and Kurdish forces were pushing forward once
again. In the east, the Golden Division launched a pincer
attack from Bartella. The unit six freed towns. From the south, the Federal
Police and Army took eight villages, and the army took another in the
southeast. The Peshmerga were laying siege to Bashiqa in the northeast. They
were digging trenches
around it, and took
one town as well. On other fronts the Kurds said they reached the limit of
their advance and were digging in. Before the campaign Irbil and Baghdad came
to an agreement about their respective roles. The Kurds agreed to take the
perimeter of Mosul to the north and east, and not enter the city itself. At the
same time they are claiming all of the territory that they take as part of the
disputed territories, which the Iraqi government does not agree with. That
issue will have to be resolved after the battle for Mosul is over.
For the second time the Islamic State struck at the Sinjar
district in western Ninewa. IS has been attacking at various locations including
Kirkuk
City and Rutba
in western Anbar in an attempt to draw forces away from Mosul. The Sinjar
thrusts have been quite small, while the other two were quite spectacular
examples of well planned and elaborate commando raids into urban areas. They
have had no impact on Mosul however.
In the Mosul district IS showed signs that its time was
running out. There was another report that IS executed 40
families south of Mosul as it was retreating. The group continued to destroy
sections of the city itself. It apparently burned some mosques,
schools, and service departments. At Mosul Hospital it kicked
out dozens of patients to make way for its own wounded. There were also stories
of food and fuel shortages.
Turkey appeared set on angering Baghdad. The day before
Turkish forces fired
artillery into the Bashiqa district claiming it was to support the Peshmerga.
The Kurds denied that they asked for any assistance. The next day, Turkey’s
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that Turkish
planes were taking part in the Mosul operation. President Recept Tayyip Erdogan
has made his goal clear. In a TV interview he stated, “But there is a major
question, who will then control the city [Mosul]? Of course, Sunni Arabs, Sunni
Turkmen and Sunni Kurds.” He was referring to Ankara’s allies in Ninewa such as
the Nujafi’s and Massoud Barzani. Through these actors Erdogan hopes to
establish hegemony over not only Mosul but the entire province of Ninewa. His
plans are not
going well however, and only garnering the enduring enmity of Baghdad.
Reported Casualties
In Mosul Operation Oct 17-24, 2016
Dead: 1 Reporter,
1 U.S. Sailor, 1 Hashd, 2 Kurdish Counter Terrorism Operatives, 3 Doctors, 4
Soldiers, 6 Displaced, 60 Peshmerga
Wounded: 4
Reporters, 10 Displaced, 30 Soldiers, 253 Peshmerga
(The higher figures
for Peshmerga vs Soldiers is due to more Western reporters being embedded with
the Kurds than the ISF)
Executed by Islamic
State Oct 17-24, 2016
658
Previous Reports
SOURCES
Abdul-Zahra,
Qassim and Krauss, Joseph, "Iraqis Press Toward Mosul, Face Questions
About Airstrike," Associated Press, 10/24/16
Bas News, “Iraqi Security Forces Advancing Towards Central
Mosul,” 10/24/16
-
"IS Executes 40 Families in South of Mosul," 10/24/16
-
"Peshmerga Foils an IS Attack in Batnaya Near Mosul," 10/24/16
Buratha
News, "Freed Christian Karmales east of Mosul," 10/24/16
Dehghanpisheh, Babak and Georgy, Michael, "Ferocity of Kirkuk
attack points to tough fight for Mosul," Reuters, 10/24/16
Dettmer, Jamie, “US Scrambles to Contain Flaring Turkey-Iraq
Tensions,” Voice of America, 10/24/16
eKurd,
"Iraqi Kurdistan News in brief - October 24, 2016," 10/24/16
- “Kurdish forces reject alleged request help from Turkey in
Mosul operation,” 10/24/16
Face
Iraq, "Security forces announced they foiled a suicide attack on a Mosul
police station," 10/24/16
Hennessy-Fiske,
Molly, "Even the badly wounded are itching to return to the battle for
Mosul: 'I'm fighting for my land,'" Los Angeles Times, 10/24/16
Iraqi
News, "Iraqi forces liberate 2 villages south of Mosul," 10/24/16
-
"Peshmerga forces kill 15 ISIS militants and destroy 7 car bombs in
Sinjar," 10/24/16
Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul: Oct. 23, 2016,” 10/23/16
-
"Inside Mosul: Oct. 24, 2016," 10/24/16
Al Maalomah, “Daesh burn mosques and schools in Mosul and
directed sectarian slogans on walls,” 10/24/16
-
"Security forces surround victory neighboring in Rutba preparing to storm
it," 10/24/16
Al
Mada, "Freed five villages in the vicinity of Bartila," 10/24/16
-
"Freed four villages in the area south of Mosul," 10/24/16
NINA,
"6 Civilians Killed, 10 Injured South Of Mosul," 10/23/16
Rudaw, “Peshmerga reach point beyond which they will not
advance in Mosul offensive,” 10/24/16
-
"UPDATES: Mosul offensive, Day 8," 10/24/16
Shafaq
News, "A senior military commander survived a suicide bombing east of
Mosul," 10/24/16
-
"Urgent..Iraqi forces repel a Daesh attack south of Mosul," 10/24/16
Sowell, Kirk, “The Regional and Domestic Political Context
of the Mosul Offensive,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10/18/16
Alsumaria, “Daesh expels more than 40 patients including the
elderly from Mosul Hospital,” 10/24/16
Monday, October 24, 2016
Mosul Campaign Day Seven, Oct 23, 2016
Day seven of the Mosul operation was dominated by the
Kurdish push from the north towards Bashiqa. Turkey also finally got involved
over the objections of the Iraqi government. The Qayara air base south of Mosul
opened, and the Islamic State continued with its destruction of parts of Mosul.
On October 22, the Iraqi forces freed a total of 15 towns.
Those were to the south and east of Mosul led by the 9th, 15th
and 16th Army Divisions and the Federal Police.
On October 23 the Peshmerga and Federal Police were both
active. First, the Kurds surrounded
the town of Bashiqa and several others in the district, which is to the
northeast of Mosul. This operation was started on October
20, but stalled due to determined counter attacks by the Islamic State. On
the 23rd the Kurds renewed their effort and reached their goal.
There were some reports
that Bashiqa had actually been taken, but the last report of the day said that
it was only encircled. The Peshmerga also seized control of the Bashiqa-Mosul road and three towns. In
the south, the Federal Police
liberated
three towns. Three
Kurdish doctors were killed during the week along with two soldiers, and
two others wounded on the 23rd.
Turkey joined in the Mosul operation for the first time. It
fired artillery
into the Bashiqa district. The Turks claimed they were supporting the Kurdish
effort, but that was disputed. What was not in argument was that this as
against the direct consent of the Iraqi government. Prime Minister Haidar Abadi
has continuously rejected Ankara playing any role in Mosul, and the situation
only escalated after President Erdogan insulted the Iraqi premier. The
artillery fire may be just a way to anger Baghdad even more.
The Qayara air base south of Mosul was finally repaired and became
operational. The base was seized several weeks ago, and the United States has
been working on it ever since. As soon as the work finished planes began
landing there delivering supplies for the Iraqi forces. Its role as a logistics
hub, so close to the front will be crucial in keeping the pace of the campaign
going.
Within Mosul the Islamic State continued to show signs of
victory and defeat. First, the group claimed that its attack upon Kirkuk city
was a great victory. At the same time it continued to pull its families and
members out of the eastern side of the city into the west. Finally, it continued
to blow up notable landmarks. On the 22nd it destroyed the Mosul
train station. It appears that the group knows that its time is ending in
the city, but it wants to take parts of it down with it, while claiming that it
will ultimately win despite this setback.
Previous Reports
SOURCES
Abdul-Zahra,
Qassim and Krauss, Joseph, "Iraqi Forces Advance Near Mosul as IS Attacks
Western Town," Associated Press, 10/23/16
ARA
News, "Peshmerga forces break through ISIS defense lines, surround Bashiqa
town," 10/23/16
Bas
News, "Peshmerga liberates 3 Villages in Northern Mosul," 10/23/16
BBC, “Mosul offensive: Turkish and Kurdish forces launch
attacks on IS,” 10/23/16
eKurd,
"Iraqi Kurdistan News in brief - October 23, 2016," 10/23/16
-"Iraqi
Kurds say they retake Christian town of Bashiqa near Mosul," 10/23/16
Al
Forat, "Freed new villages and destroyed two Daesh tunnels south of
Mosul," 10/23/16
-
"Freed village of Tal Skul south of Mosul and raised the Iraqi flag above
it," 10/23/16
Iraqi
News, "Anti-Terrorism forces repulse ISIS attack near Mosul,"
10/23/16
Al
Maalomah, "After hours of freeing Qaraqosh foiled four suicide bomb
attacks," 10/23/16
NINA, “Daesh Blows Up Mosul Train Station,” 10/22/16
Osgood, Patrick, “Peshmerga complete northern offensive,”
Iraq Oil Report, 10/24/16
Rudaw,
"MOSUL OFFENSIVE DAY 7: Live Updates," 10/23/16
Sunday, October 23, 2016
Musings On Iraq In The News
I was interviewed by Paul Iddon for “Pehsmerga confident of
success in Mosul battle despite shortages” and "The scale of Mosul operation presents challenges unlike previous battles with ISIS" both of which were published by Rudaw, and by Malik Ayub Sumbal for "Mosul is the main ISIS cadre" for Eurasia Diary.
Mosul Campaign Day Six, Oct 22, 2016
The Iraqi joint forces were much more active during the
sixth day of the Mosul operation. Several more towns were freed, some of which
were declared liberated before however. Iraq’s prime minister rejected Turkey’s
participation in the campaign once again. On the insurgents’ side the Islamic
State was accused of mass executions and forced displacement, and may be
destroying parts of Mosul in anticipation of losing it.
More information was released by the Iraqi Security Forces
(ISF) on its work on October 21. Eight
towns were reported freed that day to the south and east of Mosul.
The next day another 14 towns were liberated and another one
attacked by the ISF. Two of those, Qaraqosh and Bartella
were said to have been cleared earlier, but that appeared to be government
propaganda. There were actually freed on October 22. Several neighborhoods of Tal
Kief were entered as well by the Iraqi army.
The Kurds did not report any gains in their thrusts from the
north and east during the day but several Peshmerga were quoted in an article
in The
National saying that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) had made a
deal with Baghdad to keep all the territory that it takes during the Mosul
campaign. This will be a hotly debated issue after Mosul is liberated as Prime
Minister Haidar Abadi has mentioned before that he does not agree with
Kurdistan holding onto these areas. Facts on the ground have largely determined
who controls the disputed areas since 2003, and the Kurds have nearly all of
the areas they claim. This issue and others will have to be dealt with after
the battle is finished. Some argued that there should have been some kind of grand
deal beforehand, but that could have easily been broken by military action.
More importantly crafting such an agreement might have put off the Mosul
campaign for weeks if not months.
Only 2 casualties were reported during the day. A reporter
was killed by an IS sniper and a Hashd group claimed that one of its
fighters died as well. The low figure was due to official censorship, which is
again leading to the suppression of losses. Those are likely heavy as IS has
stiffened its defenses in the last few days. Western reporters for example have
noted several car bombs that have hit the joint forces, but no figures were
given on the dead and wounded. The actual cost of the fight against the Islamic
State has been another casualty of the war.
The U.S. led Coalition continued to support the Iraqi join
forces. Americans repaired
part of the Qayara air base south of Mosul. That could lead to Iraqi planes and
helicopters being based there for quick strikes on IS positions. More Coalition
members were also reported as being embedded with Iraqi and Kurdish forces as
advisers and to call in air strikes. The U.S. and British forces have been mentioned
and seen before by reporters. More than 100 U.S. personnel are said
to be with the joint forces on the front lines. Now Australian and New Zealand
Special Forces have been added to that list, although the latter officially
denied it.
U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter made a surprise visit
to Iraq. He met with Premier Abadi and passed along Turkey’s offer to help with
the Mosul operation. Abadi turned it down. Ankara has repeatedly said that it
would play a role in the campaign whether Baghdad liked it or not garnering
huge anger, especially amongst the Shiite ruling parties and Hashd groups.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan inflamed
the situation even more right on the eve of the battle by insulting Iraq’s
leader saying he was not on the same level. Washington has been trying to
mediate between the two countries, but Ankara is attempting to impose its
hegemony over Mosul and Ninewa in general, and Baghdad is not having it.
Erdogan’s comments ensured that the Iraqi government would never accept any
offer from him.
In IS controlled areas it is still attempting to hold onto
power. It released a video
of the hanging of two Peshmerga off of a bridge in Mosul. It also blew up a
prominent hotel
and the municipalities
building. This is more evidence that IS may be trying to destroy sections
of the city before it is forced out. In one part of the city IS used mosque
loudspeakers to claim
that it had seized most of Kirkuk city and defeated the Iraqi forces in
Bartella, both of which were false. In that same section is was forcing shops
to re-open. Many businesses have closed up in anticipation of the assault.
There were reports that the group had pushed around 200 people from several
villages south of Mosul into the city itself probably for use as human shields.
It also allegedly slaughtered several hundred people as it fled villages in the
face of advances by the Iraqi forces. In the south it also set fire to a sulfur
plant that led to toxic clouds floating to populated areas killing two and
sickening up to 1,000.
Previous Reports
SOURCES
AIN, “International Coalition welcomes the opening Qayyarah
Air Base,” 10/22/16
Bas
News, "Assyrian Town Bartella Fully Liberated from IS," 10/22/16
-
"IS Explodes Biggest Hotel in Mosul," 10/22/16
BBC,
"Mosul battle: Iraqi army 'retakes Christian town of Qaraqosh,"
10/18/16
Bora, Birce, “Analysis: What is Turkey trying to achieve in
Iraq?” Al Jazeera, 10/14/16
Buratha
News, "Martyrdom engineering official from Ashura Brigades," 10/22/16
Chulov, Martin, “Kurdish forces vow no retreat until Nineveh
plains are retaken from Isis,” Guardian, 10/20/16
Dehghanpisheh, Babak and Kalin, Stephen, “Iraqi army drives
Islamic State from Christian region near Mosul,” Reuters, 10/22/16
Iraq
Oil Report, "Inside Mosul: Oct. 22, 2016," 10/22/16
Loveday
and Fahim, Kareem, "Iraq's U.S.-trained counterterrorism troops join
attack on Mosul," Washington Post, 10/20/16
Al
Maalomah, "Security forces free Taiwibh a village in southern Mosul,"
10/22/16
- “Throwing millions of leaflets on the cities of Nineveh,
Hawija, and Qaim,” 10/22/16
Al
Mada, "Federal Police freed five villages west of advance," 10/22/16
Neuhof, Florian, “Step by step, peshmerga turn the screw on
ISIL,” The National, 10/21/16
New
Sabah, "New Sabah keeps pace with the victories over Daesh on all axes of
Nineveh," 10/22/16
NINA, "Eight new villages liberated in the southern and
eastern axes of the city of Mosul," 10/21/16
Rudaw, “Mosul battle day 6: Iraqi forces advance on
Qaraqosh,” 10/22/16
Shafaq
News, "Urgent..suicide attacks targeting the progress of the Iraqi forces
east of Mosul," 10/22/16
Sobir,
Shoguna, "IS Clams Executing Two Peshmerga: Unconfirmed Report," Bas
News
Wedeman,
Ben, Dewan, Angela and McKirdy, Euan, "Mosul: Most intense day of fighting
since offensive began," CNN, 10/20/16
Xinhua,
"Iraqi cameraman killed in battles near Mosul," 10/22/16
-
"Iraqi forces recapture town from IS as troops push on Mosul,"
10/22/16
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