U.S. Army in The Iraq War Volume 2 Chapter 14 From New Dawn To Zero August 2010-December 2011

The 14^th chapter in the U.S. Army’s second volume on the Iraq war covers the American withdrawal from the country in 2011. Iraq was still facing major problems with its security forces, militias, the insurgency and the struggle for political power. The Obama administration thought it could keep a stay behind force in the nation to help with stability but failed to do so.

US Army In The Iraq War Volume 2 Chapter 13 Toward The Defeat Of AQI, August 2009-July 2010

Chapter 13 in the U.S. Army’s second volume on the Iraq war covers the end of 2009 to the start of 2010. The Islamic State of Iraq reached a nadir during that period losing most of its leadership and manpower. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki continued to be an incompetent war time leader while plotting to hold onto power after he lost an election. That meant Iraq couldn’t take advantage of the decline of the insurgency.

US Army In The Iraq War Volume 2 Chapter 12 A New Iraq Policy For The United States

The twelfth chapter of the U.S. Army’s 2^nd Volume on the Iraq War is about the 2011 U.S. withdrawal and its impacts upon Iraq. Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki continued his concentration of power and was using the security forces to go after his opponents, the Islamic State of Iraq began its comeback while the Americans willingly gave away its influence with Baghdad.

Review Impossible Victory, How Iraq Defeated ISIS

Al-Abadi, Haider, Impossible Victory, How Iraq Defeated ISIS, Croydon: Biteback Publishing, 2022

 

Impossible Victory, How Iraq Defeated ISIS is an autobiography written by former Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. It was probably ghost written and starts off like a personalized version of government press releases. Abadi paints himself as an underdog who always had to fight against the odds from becoming the leader of Iraq to the war against the Islamic State. That’s all to be expected, but when the war begins the book becomes a re-writing of history as he omits and glosses over all the problems and abuses that occurred during the conflict.

Review Degrade And Destroy, The Inside Story Of The War Against the Islamic State, From Barack Obama To Donald Trump

Gordon, Michael, Degrade And Destroy, The Inside Story Of The War Against the Islamic State, From Barack Obama To Donald Trump, New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2022

 

Journalist Michael Gordon’s Degrade And Destroy, The Inside Story Of The War Against the Islamic State, From Barak Obama To Donald Trump can be read as a comparison between how the Obama administration differed from the Trump White House in fighting the Islamic State. President Obama was very cautious in his approach to returning to Iraq and then Syria not wanting American troops to be involved in fighting again. He slowly but surely expanded the U.S. role in the conflict. Trump on the other hand wanted the U.S. to get paid for fighting the war and was easily swayed by others so he flipped flopped several times. What both of them shared however was a general unwillingness to get involved in the Middle East again.

Review Worthy Fights

Panetta, Leon with Newton, Jim, Worthy Fights, New York: Penguin Press, 2014

 

Worthy Fights is an autobiography of Leon Panetta written by the Los Angeles Times’ Jim Newton. Panetta went from a Congressman specializing in the budget to heading budget matters with the Clinton administration to President Clinton’s chief of staff to the CIA director and Defense Secretary under President Obama.

Review Airpower in the War Against ISIS

Lambeth, Benjamin, Airpower in the War Against ISIS, Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2021

 

Airpower in the War Against ISIS by Benjamin Lambeth is an uneven book. Its strength is its argument against how the Obama administration conducted its war against the Islamic State. Lambeth believes the White House and the military misconstrued the threat the Islamic State posed, was reluctant to use its power to destroy it, and thus created the wrong strategy. The author believes that dragged out the war longer than it should have. The issues start with Lambeth getting lost in the weeds repeating the same points over and over about what went wrong. He also had problems with his sources, his analysis of Iraq, and never considered the effects of the air campaign he advocated for. It’s still worth reading but has its limits.

Review The Rise of Islamic State, ISIS and the New Sunni Revolution

Cockburn, Patrick, The Rise of Islamic State, ISIS and the New Sunni Revolution, London, New York: Verso, 2015

 

The Rise of Islamic State, ISIS and the New Sunni Revolution was written by reporter Patrick Cockburn. He said he wanted to explain what led to the 2014 fall of Mosul and its aftermath, but that was misleading. What he wrote instead was a series of personal reflections upon the Mideast. Each chapter was like its own short essay and unrelated to the others. That meant there wasn’t a coherent story to the book. Not only that but as it progressed each chapter got more off track.

Review Duty, Memoirs Of A Secretary At War

Gates, Robert, Duty, Memoirs Of A Secretary At War, New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2014

Robert Gates had a long history in U.S. government service. His last position was Secretary of Defense, which he held at the end of the Bush administration into the first term of President Obama. His memoir of that time Duty, Memoirs Of A Secretary At War covers the bureaucratic wars he went through, the difficulties he had with the military, and various challenges the United States faced, most importantly the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. His most major incites come from the handling of those two conflicts. He found that the Pentagon and military were not committed to either one believing that they were aberrations, and he found American politics corrosive to running both.

Review The Endgame, The Inside Story of the Struggle for Iraq, from George W. Bush to Barack Obama

Gordon, Michael and Trainor, General Bernard, The Endgame, The Inside Story of the Struggle for Iraq, from George W. Bush to Barack Obama, New York: Pantheon, 2012

The Endgame, The Inside Story of the Struggle for Iraq, from George W. Bush to Barack Obama is an expensive history of the U.S. involvement in Iraq from the 2003 Invasion to the military withdrawal in 2011. Authors Michael Gordon and retired General Bernard Trainor said they would cover the political and military battles the Americans fought in Iraq and why they happened. Their argument was that both the Bush and Obama administrations made a series of strategic mistakes throughout the war. The problem was the explanations were lost in all the minutia.

Review The Unraveling, High Hopes And Missed Opportunity In Iraq

Sky, Emma, The Unraveling, High Hopes And Missed Opportunity In Iraq, New York: Public Affairs, 2015

The Unraveling, High Hopes And Missed Opportunity In Iraq is the story of Emma Sky’s time serving in Iraq. Sky was a British activist who answered a call from London in 2003 for people to run postwar Iraq. She ended up being the governor for Kirkuk under the Coalition Provisional Authority. Later she returned to be the adviser to General Ray Odierno during the Surge in 2007, and then she went back a third time to be help Odierno again during the American military withdrawal. Her story is about the struggles of the early U.S. occupation of Iraq, then the success of the Surge, which was then undone when the U.S. pulled out.

Maliki’s 2011 Meeting With Obama, Mishaps Between Governments

In December 2011, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki travelled to Washington D.C. for a meeting with President Barak Obama. The State Department was hoping this would be a great symbolic get together of Iraq and the United States. Unfortunately, Maliki was not in the mood, and complained about his fears of Sunni states and Baathists and what the Americans were doing about them. This was just one of many mishaps between the two governments.

Mosul Campaign Day 71, Dec 26, 2016

December 25 the Golden Division attacked the Quds district on the outskirts of east Mosul. On December 26 the Islamic State counter attacked there with three car bombs all of which were destroyed. This was the first movement by the Iraqi forces (ISF) in east Mosul in several days after they were paused to recover from two months of heavy fighting.

IS was also said to be changing their tactics inside the city. The group has been relentlessly shelling the eastern half of Mosul. Mortar fire for example, killed two civilians on December 26. Their firing positions however have been targeted by the U.S. led Coalition and Iraqi forces. The militants were now said to be mounting mortars on vehicles so that they could fire, quickly change positions and then fire again before they were spotted and destroyed.

The last two days air strikes have been blamed for civilian casualties inside Mosul. On December 26 seven civilians were wounded in one such incident. It can only be speculated whether this was done by the U.S. led Coalition or the Iraqis.

All of the rest of the news was on plans for the new Mosul campaign. Reuters said that U.S. troops would be inside Mosul itself to provide front line targeting for air strikes and advice to the Iraqi forces. It along with Iraqi News also noted that more troops and police were moving into eastern Mosul to reinforce the units already there, while Al Alam reported that the ISF were fortifying their positions in northern and eastern Mosul.

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, “Commander: Military reinforcements arrive in Mosul,” Iraqi News, 12/26/16

Al Alam, “Over 70 ISIS Terrorists Killed by Iraqi Forces Counter Attack in Mosul,” 12/26/16

Al Forat, "The destruction of three car bombs left coast Mosul," 12/26/16

Kalin, Stephen, “Exclusive: Fresh advance in east Mosul to begin within days – U.S. commander,” Reuters, 12/26/16

Al Maalomah, "The death of two civilians, shelling by Daesh criminals central Mosul," 12/26/16

Rudaw, “US general praises ‘remarkably disciplined’ Shiite forces,” 12/26/16

Shafaaq News, "Wounding seven civilians from one family in air strike east Mosul," 12/26/16

Mosul Campaign Day 69, Dec 24, 2016

There was some movement on the eastern and western fronts. The Iraqi forces (ISF) freed two towns in the east, while the Hashd liberated a village in the west. The Ghazlani base in southern Mosul continued to be shelled as well. Some Iraqi papers claimed this showed that the Mosul campaign was back in action, but as of now this appeared to be more like minor clearing operations. Otherwise, the Golden Division was removing IEDs from the Zuhur neighborhood in east Mosul, and the Hashd was still working on securing the roads around Tal Afar. Members of Kataib Hezbollah and the Imam Ali Brigades said that bad weather was slowing their operations. A bigger factor was that they are in a holding position around Tal Afar because the army and police have not organized any forces to take the town itself.  

The Iraqi forces continued to plan for the next phase of the operation. They are being reinforced in the east. That included U.S. forces moving up towards the front. American Special Forces have been advising the ISF and calling in air strikes. U.S. apache helicopters and artillery have been supporting the advance as well, along with other Coalition air forces. In one day for instance, a reporter from Foreign Policy noted there were 43 planes from 9 countries over Mosul carrying out various missions from air strikes to jamming communications to re-fueling.

The Islamic State continued to force people from their homes in east Mosul. Al Alam reported that around 250 families were told to leave the Jazir area. IS has been trying to get people to follow their retreat to be used as human shields, while converting the abandoned buildings into firing positions.

On a positive note, a Christmas mass was held in the town of Bartella for the first time in two years. The town was taken by the Islamic State in 2014 and freed in October 2016. Unfortunately the town remains mostly abandoned and destroyed. Almost all the people that attended the service travelled there from Kurdistan where they have been staying since the insurgents swept through the area.

SOURCES

Al Alam, "Bombings, Mortar Attacks Claim 10 Lives Across Iraq," 12/24/16

Face Iraq, “Sources: US ground forces and Apache helicopters in northern Mosul front with the resumption of fighting,” 12/24/16

Al Forat, "Nineveh Operaions: Progress on northern axis and control of road south of Tal Afar to Sinjar, west Mosul,' 12/24/16

Al Maalomah, “Counter-terrorism forces destroying explosives left by Daesh criminals in east Mosul,” 12/24/16

- “Hezbollah Brigades and Imam Ali Brigade reveal reasons for the slowdown of operation on the western axis,” 12/24/16

MacDiarmid, Campbell, “The Battle to Retake Mosul Is Stalemated,” Foreign Policy, 12/22/16

Rudaw, “Christian town east of Mosul celebrates first Christmas post-ISIS,” 12/24/16

Mosul Campaign Day Twenty-Two, Nov 7, 2016

More news came out on progress made on November 6. The Federal Police freed 7 towns in the southeast including Hamam al-Alil. The army liberated 5 towns in the north and south, and the Golden Division entered one new neighborhood in eastern Mosul.

On November 7, the Peshmerga stormed Bashiqa in the east in the last major operation they will take part in. The town had been surrounded for a week now. Two adjoining villages were also cleared. Reporters from Rudaw saw U.S. forces accompanying the Peshmerga in the area. American Special Forces have been working with the Kurds for quite some time now to call in air strikes and acting as advisers.

In the southeast the Federal Police were clearing the area around Hamam al-Alil. They went through three more towns, but one of them was declared freed two days ago. Agence France Presse reported that life was returning to normal in Hamam al-Alil with people re-opening their shops and trying to go about their business. Outside of the town in the Agriculture College a mass grave was discovered with 100 bodies in it executed by the Islamic State.

The 16^th Division went through two towns in the north.

The 9^th Division working alongside the Golden Division in the east freed one village, and attacked three other towns and areas of Mosul. One of those had been attacked at the start of the month, but the army had apparently not gained a strong foothold there.

The Golden Division was embroiled in heavy fighting in the east as well. Seven neighborhoods in Mosul were surrounded. Three of those areas however had been called liberated before. In the city there have been many advances and retreats due to Islamic State counterattacks, so more news of areas being cleared multiple times will come out.

There have been several reports on the intensity of the fighting within Mosul. CNN for example had an account of combat in Kirkukli when an army convoy was ambushed with 12 out of 15 Humvees being lost. They called for back up, but it took 8 hours for it to arrive, and the relief column got trapped as well before all the soldiers could be evacuated.

The U.S. has also stepped up its involvement in the operation. American artillery in the south is providing fire support for the advancing Iraqi troops. The Coalition is largely in charge of logistics for the Iraqis. Now there is a story that Apaches have been deployed in small numbers to destroy car bombs.

The International Organization for Migration gave new figures on the number of displaced since the Mosul operation started on October 17. It had 34,038 people registered. Originally on October 19 there were just 1,900 as just a few villages had been entered. As soon as eastern Mosul was penetrated however, the amount of people dramatically increased. Broken down by area there were 29,976 displaced from Mosul, 4,410 from Hamdaniya, 2334 from Tilkaif, and 318 from Makhmour. The number of people who have been displaced is nowhere near the figures that some humanitarian groups warned about before the campaign started, but they will likely continue to climb higher as more parts of Mosul are liberated.

Reported Casualties:

2,089 Killed

1 U.S. Sailor

2 Kurd Counterterrorism Operatives

3 ISF

37 Hashd

69 Peshmerga

94 Soldiers

1,883 Civilians

745 Wounded

69 Hashd

95 Civilians

259 Peshmerga

322 Soldiers

1,799 Executed by Islamic State

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq forces retake key town on Mosul southern front,” 11/7/16

- “US using Apache helicopters in the battle for Mosul,” 11/7/16

BBC, "Mosul battle: Iraqi special forces enter city limits," 11/1/16

- "Mosul battle: Kurdish forces push into IS-held Bashiqa," 11/7/16

George, Susannah, “Casualties mount as Iraqis press deeper into IS-held Mosul,” Associated Press, 11/7/16

Georgy, Michael, "Iraq Peshmerga storm Islamic State town as army battles in Mosul," Reuters, 11/7/16

International Organization for Migration, “IOM Iraq Emergency Tracking: Mosul Operations, Data Snapshot: 7 November 2016,” 11/7/16

Iraq Oil Report, "Inside Mosul: Nov. 1, 2016," 11/1/16

- "Inside Mosul: Nov. 5, 2016," 11/5/16

- "Inside Mosul: Nov. 7, 2016," 11/7/16

Lister, Tim and Sanchez, Ray, “Fierce fight on edge of Mosul may be a preview of battle to come,” CNN, 11/6/16

Al Mada, "Federal Police liberate villages north of Hamam al-Alil, 5 km separate them from Mosul city and its airport," 11/7/16

NINA, "Federal Police Kill 2 Suicide Bombers, Arrest 20 Terrorists, Liberate Collage Of Agriculture," 11/5/16

Rojkan, Mira, "Peshmerga Conducting House-to-House Search after Recapturing Bashiq," Bas News, 11/7/16

Rudaw, "LIVE UPDATES: The fight for Mosul day 20," 11/5/16

- “MOSUL OFFENSIVE DAY 22: Peshmerga liberate Bashiqa,” 11/7/16

Xinhua, "Iraqi forces free more districts in eastern Mosul," 11/4/16

Mosul Campaign Day Six, Oct 22, 2016

The Iraqi joint forces were much more active during the sixth day of the Mosul operation. Several more towns were freed, some of which were declared liberated before however. Iraq’s prime minister rejected Turkey’s participation in the campaign once again. On the insurgents’ side the Islamic State was accused of mass executions and forced displacement, and may be destroying parts of Mosul in anticipation of losing it.

More information was released by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) on its work on October 21. Eight towns were reported freed that day to the south and east of Mosul.

The next day another 14 towns were liberated and another one attacked by the ISF. Two of those, Qaraqosh and Bartella were said to have been cleared earlier, but that appeared to be government propaganda. There were actually freed on October 22. Several neighborhoods of Tal Kief were entered as well by the Iraqi army.

The Kurds did not report any gains in their thrusts from the north and east during the day but several Peshmerga were quoted in an article in The National saying that the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) had made a deal with Baghdad to keep all the territory that it takes during the Mosul campaign. This will be a hotly debated issue after Mosul is liberated as Prime Minister Haidar Abadi has mentioned before that he does not agree with Kurdistan holding onto these areas. Facts on the ground have largely determined who controls the disputed areas since 2003, and the Kurds have nearly all of the areas they claim. This issue and others will have to be dealt with after the battle is finished. Some argued that there should have been some kind of grand deal beforehand, but that could have easily been broken by military action. More importantly crafting such an agreement might have put off the Mosul campaign for weeks if not months.

Only 2 casualties were reported during the day. A reporter was killed by an IS sniper and a Hashd group claimed that one of its fighters died as well. The low figure was due to official censorship, which is again leading to the suppression of losses. Those are likely heavy as IS has stiffened its defenses in the last few days. Western reporters for example have noted several car bombs that have hit the joint forces, but no figures were given on the dead and wounded. The actual cost of the fight against the Islamic State has been another casualty of the war.

The U.S. led Coalition continued to support the Iraqi join forces. Americans repaired part of the Qayara air base south of Mosul. That could lead to Iraqi planes and helicopters being based there for quick strikes on IS positions. More Coalition members were also reported as being embedded with Iraqi and Kurdish forces as advisers and to call in air strikes. The U.S. and British forces have been mentioned and seen before by reporters. More than 100 U.S. personnel are said to be with the joint forces on the front lines. Now Australian and New Zealand Special Forces have been added to that list, although the latter officially denied it.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter made a surprise visit to Iraq. He met with Premier Abadi and passed along Turkey’s offer to help with the Mosul operation. Abadi turned it down. Ankara has repeatedly said that it would play a role in the campaign whether Baghdad liked it or not garnering huge anger, especially amongst the Shiite ruling parties and Hashd groups. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan inflamed the situation even more right on the eve of the battle by insulting Iraq’s leader saying he was not on the same level. Washington has been trying to mediate between the two countries, but Ankara is attempting to impose its hegemony over Mosul and Ninewa in general, and Baghdad is not having it. Erdogan’s comments ensured that the Iraqi government would never accept any offer from him.

In IS controlled areas it is still attempting to hold onto power. It released a video of the hanging of two Peshmerga off of a bridge in Mosul. It also blew up a prominent hotel and the municipalities building. This is more evidence that IS may be trying to destroy sections of the city before it is forced out. In one part of the city IS used mosque loudspeakers to claim that it had seized most of Kirkuk city and defeated the Iraqi forces in Bartella, both of which were false. In that same section is was forcing shops to re-open. Many businesses have closed up in anticipation of the assault. There were reports that the group had pushed around 200 people from several villages south of Mosul into the city itself probably for use as human shields. It also allegedly slaughtered several hundred people as it fled villages in the face of advances by the Iraqi forces. In the south it also set fire to a sulfur plant that led to toxic clouds floating to populated areas killing two and sickening up to 1,000.

Previous Reports

Mosul Campaign Day Five

Mosul Campaign Day Four

Mosul Campaign Day Three

Mosul Campaign Day Two

Mosul Campaign Day One

SOURCES

AIN, “International Coalition welcomes the opening Qayyarah Air Base,” 10/22/16

Bas News, "Assyrian Town Bartella Fully Liberated from IS," 10/22/16

- "IS Explodes Biggest Hotel in Mosul," 10/22/16

BBC, "Mosul battle: Iraqi army 'retakes Christian town of Qaraqosh," 10/18/16

Bora, Birce, “Analysis: What is Turkey trying to achieve in Iraq?” Al Jazeera, 10/14/16

Buratha News, "Martyrdom engineering official from Ashura Brigades," 10/22/16

Chulov, Martin, “Kurdish forces vow no retreat until Nineveh plains are retaken from Isis,” Guardian, 10/20/16

Dehghanpisheh, Babak and Kalin, Stephen, “Iraqi army drives Islamic State from Christian region near Mosul,” Reuters, 10/22/16

Iraq Oil Report, "Inside Mosul: Oct. 22, 2016," 10/22/16

Loveday and Fahim, Kareem, "Iraq's U.S.-trained counterterrorism troops join attack on Mosul," Washington Post, 10/20/16

Al Maalomah, "Security forces free Taiwibh a village in southern Mosul," 10/22/16

- “Throwing millions of leaflets on the cities of Nineveh, Hawija, and Qaim,” 10/22/16

Al Mada, "Federal Police freed five villages west of advance," 10/22/16

Neuhof, Florian, “Step by step, peshmerga turn the screw on ISIL,” The National, 10/21/16

New Sabah, "New Sabah keeps pace with the victories over Daesh on all axes of Nineveh," 10/22/16

NINA, "Eight new villages liberated in the southern and eastern axes of the city of Mosul," 10/21/16

Rudaw, “Mosul battle day 6: Iraqi forces advance on Qaraqosh,” 10/22/16

Shafaq News, "Urgent..suicide attacks targeting the progress of the Iraqi forces east of Mosul," 10/22/16

Sobir, Shoguna, "IS Clams Executing Two Peshmerga: Unconfirmed Report," Bas News

Wedeman, Ben, Dewan, Angela and McKirdy, Euan, "Mosul: Most intense day of fighting since offensive began," CNN, 10/20/16

Xinhua, "Iraqi cameraman killed in battles near Mosul," 10/22/16

- "Iraqi forces recapture town from IS as troops push on Mosul," 10/22/16

Mosul Campaign Day One, Oct 17, 2016

The battle for Mosul has finally begun. Prime Minister Haidar Abadi announced the beginning of the operation on October 16. Kurdish President Massoud Barzani called it a “historic day,” and it was. While the Islamic State still holds territory in western Anbar along the Syrian border and the Hawija and Riyad areas of southern Kirkuk, Mosul is the organization’s unofficial capital. It was the first major city that the group took when it launched its summer offensive in 2014, and holds great symbolic significance for both it and the Iraqi government. Taking it back will not mean the death knell of IS, but it will be a huge setback to lose a key piece in its caliphate.

Iraqi Prime Minister Abadi promised to free Mosul by the end of the year, so there was immense pressure to get the forces in place and reach a broad agreement amongst all the stakeholders, facilitated by the United States, about their different roles. As a result, the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) is supposed to be the only ones that enter Mosul itself. The Peshmerga and Hashd are to hold the perimeter. The fear is that if either of those two would go into the city it could turn the population against not only the liberating forces, but the government as well. As Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy recently noted this operation offers Baghdad a great opportunity to win over the population of Mosul, which has been a hotbed of anti-government and insurgent activity since the U.S. invasion.

The question as ever is whether these agreements will hold. A similar one was made before the Fallujah operation that the Hashd would stay out of the city. As it turned out, Badr members in the Federal Police took part in the battle. The Hashd also claimed that they fought to liberate the Jolan neighborhood in the north of the city. Mosul is such a prize to all the forces involved that they may not be able to resist the temptation to enter it.

That also hints at the difficulties that might emerge after Mosul is taken. Many of the fighting parties would like to claim the city and parts of Ninewa as well. The central government wants to re-integrate Mosul into the country after it has been under the Islamic State’s control for two years. The Kurds may not be interested in running the city itself, but are interested in annexing much of the territory around it and to the south that they say are parts of the disputed areas. Masrour Barzani for example, the son of the Kurdish president said that they would not give up any of the land that it freed from the militants. In turn, members of the pro-Iranian factions of the Hashd have responded that they would not allow the Kurds to seize anything during the Mosul offensive. Former Ninewa Governor Atheel Nujafi would also like to play a part in his attempt to return to power. As a result, his Hashd al-Watani expressed that they would join in the campaign. He and the Barzanis’ Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) are aligned with Turkey, which has a small camp in Bashiqa to the northeast. It wants to use the offensive to assert its hegemony over Ninewa. There is also the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) from Turkey, which is based in Sinjar to the west. They have said that they too will attack Mosul along with their Yazidi allies. While some suggested that Mosul should be put off due to all of these conflicting agendas and some sort of political deal be made beforehand that probably would have not worked. Whatever agreement was made could have been overturned by facts on the ground after the battle was over. Negotiations on the future of Mosul and Ninewa therefore are best done afterward.

The actual campaign could be a long one. That’s due to the sheer size of Mosul, which is almost as big as Baghdad. Surrounding it and coordinating between the various groups, many of which do not get along could be a difficult task.

So far the Iraqi forces are advancing along two axes, with the Kurds in the east. Up to 10,000 Peshmerga have set out along the Irbil-Mosul highway. They entered the Khazir area heading towards Bartella and Hamdaniya. The Islamic State set oil wells in the latter on fire to try to prevent air strikes by blocking aerial views of the battlefield. The Kurds claimed they freed ten villages on the first day. In the process they fought off several car and suicide bombings. The press reported that a total of 8 Peshmerga were killed and 11 wounded in the process.

To the south the ISF and Hashd are moving forward from its base in Qayara. The elite Golden Division and army brigades are going up the eastern side of the Tigris River, which leads to Mosul, while other army units and Interior Ministry forces are to the east of the river. The army’s 9^th Division said that it liberated six villages on October 16. The ISF also claimed to have killed six suicide bombes. Overall, the media reported that one soldier lots his life and two others were injured during the fighting.

It didn’t appear that there were many IS fighters on either axis. In at least one village it was said that people rose up against the Islamic State and expelled them.

Until the joint forces reach Mosul itself the areas to the west are still under the insurgents control. That will give them an escape route. One Iraqi official told the Washington Post that they were hoping that the militants would give up and flee that way, while an Iraqi general said that the western regions would be targeted by Iraqi aircraft to kill IS elements that might be moving through there.

In Mosul itself there are continued stories of hardships. Its been said that there are only a few hours of electricity available, some areas lack running water, the schools did not open this year, and that IS is carrying out recruiting drives of both young and old to bolster their defenses. Kurdish sources claimed that up to 300 suspected IS deserters have been caught in the last month amongst displaced people. Finally, there are many reports of resistance groups carrying out scattered attacks upon IS in Mosul and the surrounding areas. Islamic State propaganda on the other hand, is trying to portray life as going on normally within the city.

Overall, the first day of the Mosul operation made good progress with little resistance. That will likely change in the coming period when the insurgents’ first line of defense is met. When the city itself is reached the sheer size of it will also pose new challenges as well. The Fallujah campaign however may show that Mosul will go down quicker than some believe. In the former, most of the residents remained in the city along with IS families and leadership. That meant that the group could not build its usual defense in depth right into the heart of the urban areas because there were people in the way. The group for example, couldn’t lay down IED fields in populated districts or booby trap as many homes. What civilians can be used for are human shields, but that is no substitute for sound military preparations. In the end, the city will fall. It is only a matter of time.

SOURCES

Arango, Tim, “A Tour of Falluja Reveals Grim Remnants of Life Under ISIS,” New York Times, 6/22/16

Bas News, “Sunni Forces Trained by Turkey Participating in Mosul Assault: Official,” 10/17/16

eKurd, “Iraqi Kurdistan News in brief – October 17, 2016,” 10/17/16

Iraqi News, “Forces advance to liberate ISIS’ last bastion in central Fallujah,” 6/25/16

- “Iraqi Joint forces liberate 6 villages near Mosul,” 10/17/16

- “Mosul offensive: Iraqi army advances from eastern axis of Nineveh 4 villages liberated,” 10/17/16

- “Mosul offensive: Peshmerga forces approach Bartella and Hamdaniyah,” 10/17/16

Kalin, Stephen and Dmitry Zhdannikov, “Exclusive: U.S. helped clinch Iraq oil deal to keep Mosul battle on track,” Reuters, 10/3/16

Al Mada, “The army and the Peshmerga are moving to the east and south of Mosul .. Daesh are preparing to move to the right coast of the city,” 10/17/16

- “The joint forces isolating Fallujah after the liberation of Garma and Nuaimiya on the first day of the start of the operation,” 5/23/16

- “Operations: Hawija will not be freed first before the popular crowd is tasked with cordoning off Mosul,” 10/17/16

Al Masalah, "Six suicide bombers killed trying to storm the army lines south of Mosul," 10/17/16

Morris, Loveday, “Battle to banish Islamic State from Mosul could become a mess,” Washington Post, 10/12/16

Morris, Loveday and Fahim, Kareem, “Iraqi attack on Mosul begins as forces push toward Islamic State stronghold,” Washington Post, 10/17/16

NINA, “Washington Refuses PKK’s Participation in Mosul Operations,” 10/15/16

Nordland, Rod, “Iraqi Forces Attack Mosul, a Beleaguered Stronghold for ISIS,” New York Times, 10/16/16

Osgood, Patrick and Tahir, Rawaz, “Operation to liberate Mosul begins,” Iraq Oil Report, 10/17/16

Rudaw, “Live Updates: the battle for Mosul,” 10/17/16

- “Sunni militia to come under Peshmerga command for Mosul operation,” 10/4/16

Sattar, Sardar, “Masrour Barzani: Peshmerga to Stay in Newly-liberated Areas,” Bas News, 10/17/16

Xinhua, “Iraqi forces fighting all out to free Mosul from IS,” 10/17/16

Islamic State’s Highway of Death In Iraq’s Anbar

At the end of June 2016 just as the battle for Fallujah had concluded a huge group of Islamic State fighters and their families tried to make a break out. Over 700 vehicles might have taken part. This was quickly discovered by the Iraqis and U.S.-led Coalition, which set about destroying it over two days. That was about all that was agreed upon as the Iraqis and Americans gave different accounts of what happened and who was responsible.

The initial reports of the attack upon the Islamic State convoy in Anbar were a bit confused and excluded any involvement of the U.S.-led Coalition. On June 29, the head of Iraqi army aviation General Hamid al-Maliki claimed that IS tried to attack Amiriya Fallujah, which is south of Fallujah, with over 700 vehicles. He claimed the Iraqi forces attacked the convoy destroying around 130 of them. The Defense Ministry also posted video of its helicopters attacking the column. Kataib Hezbollah and the head of the Badr list in parliament said that the Hashd also took part in the attack destroying more than 100 vehicles. The Badr parliamentarian said the IS column was heading from Amiriya Fallujah either west to the Syrian border area or south towards Saudi Arabia. Here there were several problems. First, the column was not an attack. Second, depending upon the account you had vehicles heading north or south. Later, it would be revealed that three separate groups were attacked, but that would not come out until later. Finally, only the Hashd claimed it was involved. It does not appear in any other reporting.

On June 30 Iraqi officials tried to clarify the issue, but there was still contradictory information given. The Defense Ministry said around 260 IS vehicles were hit, Gen. Maliki upped that 426, Defense Minister Khalid al-Obeidi had 688, while another Iraqi military source claimed there were 798. A spokesman for the Defense Ministry General Yahya Rasoul and General Maliki said that only Iraqi forces were involved, and that the attacks started on the night of June 28 in the Hasai area northwest of Fallujah. The head of the security committee in Amiriya Fallujah Rashid al-Rasheed told the press that Sahwa units in the area ran into the vehicles and engaged them as well. Sheikh Faisal al-Issawi added that IS contacted his men and asked for safe passage through their lines saying they would not fight, but Issawi’s Sahwa attacked them anyway. The Iraqis informed the U.S. coalition about the situation, but it did not want to be involved because they were afraid there were civilians with the insurgents. Rasheed accused the U.S. of making a deal with the militants to allow them through the lines. The Mayor of Fallujah Eissa Issawi gave a different explanation speculating that IS had made a deal with the Iraqi forces for safe passage. Again, you have vehicles going in different directions because there were actually two groups of them. Now the Sawha were claiming they were involved with no mention of the Hashd. Finally, the inflation of numbers destroyed was another example of Iraqi propaganda, which often exaggerates its prowess.

The Americans offered a third version of events. The Coalition claimed that it struck two separate IS columns on June 28 and 29. It first received news of an IS convoy on June 27, and sent out a drone, which found it. Coalition spokesman Colonel Chris Garver let it be known that the U.S. avoided hitting the convoy because it was afraid that it contained civilians. It didn’t want them to escape however so heavy bombers, perhaps B-52s were called on June 28 in order to crater the road IS was travelling on to stop them. On June 29 40 vehicles broke away from the main group and headed south, which Coalition forces engaged and destroyed after it was determined that they were all military targets. The main column was found again in the afternoon and hit by the Coalition as well. Garver added that the Iraqi ground forces attacked the convoy perhaps alluding to the Hashd or Sahwa stories. Another convoy of 120 vehicles was then discovered in Albu Bali between Ramadi and Fallujah. Initially this was called a second “southern” column. Iraqi artillery began the initial assault, and then Coalition aircraft blew up the lead vehicle stopping it for over an hour When it got started again, the Coalition stopped it a second time by destroying the first in line. Around 50 people including women and children were seen fleeing the column, temporarily halting the air raids. After about an hour the Coalition and Iraqis wiped out the empty vehicles. Like the Iraqis, the Coalition posted video of its participation. It was later revealed that Americans pulled planes from supporting an attack by the new Syrian Army upon the Islamic State in Bukumal, Syria to strike the Anbar. The U.S. account had problems as well as it claimed most of the success with only mentioning the Iraqis at the very end. In fact they destroyed most of the first column, which the Americans refused to do over their concerns for civilian casualties.

On July 4, War Is Boring published an article by Arnaud Delalande who interviewed some of the Iraqi pilots that attacked the column. They added that Iraqi military intelligence noticed IS movement from Fallujah towards Amiriya Fallujah on the night of June 28. Iraqi army helicopters were sent out to find and track the vehicles, and reported that they found them around 10 pm. The Iraqis then told the U.S., but they did not want to take part because they believed there were civilians amongst the militants. That left Iraqi helicopters to begin the attack at 1:30 am on June 29, which took place in the Hasai area. Pilots said that they saw more than 400 vehicles spread out across the area and destroyed more than half of them. Iraqi intelligence then found a second column of around 30 vehicles leaving Fallujah in a northwest direction. This was the one found in Albu Bali The Iraqis sent out more helicopters, but they were told to vacate the areas as the U.S. and British aircraft swept it. Christiaan Triebert also wrote an article that mentioned that Iraqi helicopters flew into the Albu Bali area and took away civilian casualties who were either the victims of IS or the air strikes. Here you finally had Iraqi and Coalition aircraft all hitting IS at various times and in different locations clearing up the first reports that had the insurgents going south or north. Who the civilians were is yet unknown. Some said IS attacked a group of civilians. Another account said it was displaced. It could have been IS family members as well.

Three major problems arose from these accounts. First, the number of IS vehicles hit was all over the place from 176 initially stated by the Coalition to up to 798 claimed by the Iraqis. Second, Baghdad and Washington did not appear to be on the same page. Officially, Iraqis insisted that the U.S. and British were not involved in the destruction of the IS convoies. Third, how were so many vehicles able to gather together and move about at the end of a major Iraqi military operation? While some blamed the U.S., it was likely the Iraqi forces that made the deal since they were on the ground and have reportedly done the same in other cases to avoid further fighting. Whatever the case Fallujah was a disaster for the Islamic State and its flight into the desert and destruction topped off its defeat.

SOURCES

Associated Press, “Iraq Airstrikes Kill Islamic State Fighters Leaving Fallujah,” 6/30/16

Delalande, Arnaud, “Iraqis and Americans Butted Heads Over the ISIS ‘Convoy Massacre,’” War Is Boring, 7/4/16

Ellis, Ralph, Starr, Barbara and Alkhshali, Hamdi, “Airstrikes hit convoys carrying ISIS militants out of Falluja, U.S. officials say,” CNN, 7/1/16

Gibbons-Neff, Thomas and Lamothe, Dan, “Pentagon chief on pulling air support for U.S.-backed rebels: ‘We missed an opportunity,’” Washington Post, 7/8/16

Al Mada, “Daash attacked Amiriya Fallujah as 700 cars destroyed 130 by Army Aviation,” 6/29/16

- “Security alerted to the giant Daash convoy tried to withdraw from the area around Fallujah,” 6/30/16

Michaels, Jim, “Inside look at U.S.-led coalition’s deadliest single attack on ISIL,” USA Today, 7/12/16

NINA, “Qasim al-Araji: The Army and the Popular Crowd repulsed more than /200/ car traveling /Daash/ elements fleeing across the Nazim of al-Mejarra and the island,” 6/29/16

Rogoway, Tyler, “New “Highway Of Death” In Iraq As ISIS Convoy Gets Annihilated From The Air,” The Warzone, 7/1/16

Salim, Mustafa and Gibbons-Neff, Thomas, “Iraqi, U.S. aircraft bomb convoy of Islamic State fighters fleeing Fallujah with their families,” Washington Post, 6/30/16

Triebert, Chirstiaan, “An Open Source Analysis of the Fallujah “Convoy Massacre”(s),” bellingcat, 7/6/16

COLLEGE OF THE MAINLAND VIDEO: The Islamic State And US Foreign Policy Dr Daniel Byman

US Increasing Troops & Operations In Iraq Once Again

The United States has once again upped its participation in the war in Iraq for the second time in two months. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter was in Baghdad and announced a troop increase and greater participation. More trainers and artillery were being sent, Apache helicopters would have a bigger role, and the Kurds were getting financial help as well.

In March 2016 the U.S. sent marines covertly to Ninewa. The new force was called a temporary deployment to keep them off the books, but they pushed the American military presence in the country to over 5,000. The marines opened up a firebase to support the Iraqi army for the eventual freeing of the province. Their deployment was quickly revealed when the Islamic State killed a marine. The base marked a major change in strategy for Washington. It was now looking to place its forces near the front so that they could take part in offensive operations instead of just doing advising and training.

By early April, the Pentagon let it be known that it wanted another small increase in troops and greater freedom of action. It said more advisers and trainers would be sent, and they would work closer to the front, and that Apache helicopters would be used. This was part of President Obama’s decision to increase pressure on the Islamic State and take on Mosul by the end of the year. In order to do that, the White House wanted more direct support for the Iraqi forces.

On April 18 during a trip to Baghdad, Defense Secretary Ash Carter made a formal announcement about the new policy. 217 new troops were to be sent, which would take on a mix of duties including advising, force protection, and servicing helicopter. Most of the advisers were to come from the Special Forces and would imbed with Iraqi brigades and battalions with the 15^th Division in the Makhmour district of Ninewa. Before U.S. troops had only operated at the division level. Secretary Ash also noted that Apaches could be used for offensive operations. In December, Prime Minister Haidar Abadi turned down an offer to use the American helicopters, but now the two countries appeared to be on the same page. High Mobility Artillery Rockets Systems (HiMARS) would also be sent to Ninewa. They have the range to hit Mosul from Makhmour allowing the U.S. to back the Iraqi advance all the way to the city. Finally, $415 million would be allocated to the Peshmerga to help the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) with its military bills, while it is facing a financial crisis with its oil economy collapsing.

The Americans would also be increasing their raids upon high value Islamic State officials. On April 17, a U.S. helicopter landed in Badush, Ninewa south of Mosul and seized an IS member out of his car. The next day, American and Kurdish Special Forces killed Salman Abu Shabib al-Jabouri, aka Abu Saif, and two of his aides in Hamam Ali, Ninewa. He was in charge of operations in Makhmour and was a member of IS’s military council. These were meant to weaken IS’s leadership in Ninewa in the area where the U.S. troops are deploying to. The Pentagon was hoping to hit the militants’ foot soldiers and their leadership weakening the group from the top and bottom.

Overall, the new U.S. deployment is not much, but the White House can only work in increments given the political situation in Iraq. Premier Abadi is in a precarious situation right now, especially as his reform program is collapsing around him. Many of his critics within the Shiite parties completely reject the Americans being in the country, and the pro-Iranian ones constantly claim the U.S. is actually backing the Islamic State. Given that situation in Baghdad, Washington can only move forward in increments otherwise it would provoke a strong reaction from Abadi’s opponents, weakening him further. Together the two countries have been able to forge closer military cooperation, and the new troops will be able to provide quicker responses to threats posed by the insurgents. Hopefully that will save Iraqi lives and hasten the defeat of the Islamic State.

SOURCES

Baldor, Lolita, “Pentagon: US may set up more small outposts in Iraq,” Associated Press, 4/6/16

BBC, “US extra troops to boost fight against IS in Iraq,” 4/18/16

Coles, Isabel, “U.S.-led raids in Iraq kill and capture Islamic State fighters,” Reuters, 4/18/16

Copp, Tara, “US to send Apache helicopters, more troops to help in Mosul fight,” Stars and Stripes, 4/18/16

Munoz, Carlo, “Obama: Iraq to retake Mosul from ISIS by end of year,” Washington Times, 4/19/16

Reuters, “U.S. to send more troops to Iraq, escalating war on Islamic State,” 4/18/16

Schmidt, Michael, “Obama to Send Military Advisers Closer to Front Lines of ISIS Fight in Iraq,” New York Times, 4/18/16

Schmidt, Michael and Schmit, Eric, “US. Plans to Step Up Military Campaig Against ISIS,” New York Times, 4/16/16

Sputnik, “US, Kurdish Special Forces Kill Senior Daesh Leader in Iraq,” 4/18/16