Musings On Iraq In The News

My interview with Haroro Ingram on the Islamic State’s information campaign was reprinted in Vox Pol. Musings On Iraq was mentioned in "Post-Islamic State Problems: Diyala Province Undergoing Violent Ethnic and Sectarian Cleansing" by Aida al-Khatib for Niqash. I was cited in "The Obama Administration Has Made A Striking Choice In Iraq" by Armin Rosen and Michael Kelly for Business Insider.

SULAIMANI FORUM VIDEO: Emerging Kurdish Dynamics

WILSON CENTER VIDEO: Rise of ISIS From Regional Terror To Global Threat

Iraq Ranks In Ten Most Corrupt Countries In World Again

Germany’s Transparency International (TI) released its newest corruption index for 2015, and as usual Iraq was at the bottom of the list. TI scores countries from 0 to 100 with 100 being at the top. The ten worst countries in its new study were Somalia, North Korea, Afghanistan, Sudan, South Sudan, Angola, Libya, Iraq, Venezuela, and Guinea-Bissau. Seven of those nations had the worst ranks last year. Iraq received the same score that it had for the last two years at 16. In 2012 it did slightly better at 18.

Most Corrupt Countries On Transparency International Corruption Index 2015

1. Somalia

1. North Korea

3. Afghanistan

4. Sudan

5. South Sudan

6. Angola

7. Libya

7. Iraq

9. Venezuela

10. Guinea-Bissau

  

Iraq always ranks towards the bottom of these surveys because corruption is so rampant throughout the state. The ruling elite use graft and bribes to maintain their patronage systems and enrich themselves. That’s also the reason why there is no real push to end it either because if one top officials were to be taken down it would threaten all the rest. That’s despite repeated promises by the prime ministers, the complaints of Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and protests that occur almost every year demanding action on the issue. Premier Haidar Abadi for example announced a reform program in August 2015 that was supposed to address corruption, but he was focused more on building up his own base and going after his rivals than actually addressing the problem, and nothing substantive was done. Abadi passed up a perfect opportunity as the street was with him and so was Najaf, but he was unwilling to seriously touch the golden goose that keeps the Iraqi parties going.

SOURCES

Salim, Mustafa and Cunningham, Erin, “Iraqi prime minister announces sweeping reform measures aimed at fighting corruption,” Washington Post, 8/9/15

Transparency International, “Corruption Perceptions Index 2015,” 1/27/16

Iraq Ex-Finance Min Issawi Convicted Of Corruption Rather Than Terrorism Charges

In December 2015 Iraq’s former Finance Minister Rafi Issawi was convicted in two separate court cases. Issawi last ran afoul of the law in 2012 when his bodyguards were arrested and Issawi was charged with terrorism. That led to months of protests across a number of provinces that became one of the major stories in the country for 2013. When Issawi was finally found guilty in 2015 however it was not for involvement with violence, but for rather routine corruption.

At the end of 2015 Issawi was found guilty in two separate corruption trials. First, Issawi was given seven years for manipulating money exchanges. A few days later Issawi received an additional one year sentence in a misdemeanor court for appointing relatives to office and issuing illegal degrees, so people could get government jobs. There were originally 20 other charges against him, but those were dropped. One and seven years were relatively light sentences showing that the charges were not that serious. Like other top officials, Issawi was treated with kid gloves by the courts, and was only convicted after he had left office and was out of the country as the government is not serious about tackling graft and other illegalities. This was anti-climatic compared to what Issawi went through in previous years.

The last time Issawi was faced with charges it was for terrorism, and caused a huge controversy that lasted for nearly a year. On December 20, 2012, ten of Issawi’s bodyguards were arrested. A State of Law member claimed that twenty families in Anbar filed suits against them, which led to warrants being issued. (1) On December 29, one of the guards was shown on Al-Iraqiya TV confessing to taking orders from Issawi’s son-in-law to carry out assassinations with aid from former Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi. The arrests led to a series of protests in Salahaddin, Anbar, Ninewa, Diyala, Kirkuk, Babil, Baghdad, and even in the south in Maysan, Dhi Qar, and Basra initially. In January, Moqtada al-Sadr sent a delegation to the protests in Ramadi to express support, and his bloc rejected an offer by Prime Minister Maliki to assume Issawi’s position as Finance Minister. Later, these protests took on a sectarian tone as Sunni demonstrations against Maliki’s Shiite government with a few turning very militant such as in Fallujah and Hawija, with the latter taken over by the Naqshibandi insurgent group and the former featuring some Islamic State supporters. When they started however they were about the prime minister targeting another one of his opponents, and cut across sectarian and political lines. They came after Maliki had chased off Vice President Hashemi into exile the year before on similar terrorist charges, and the premier was pushing the Kurds over oil and the disputed territories. Issawi was actually aligned with Maliki beforehand, but then broke with him. Issawi wrote an opinion piece with Iyad Allawi asking for the U.S to intervene to stop Maliki from grabbing more power, and called for a no confidence vote against the premier, which led to the arrest warrants being issued.

Maliki used the same tactics of intimidation against Issawi in the past. In December 2011 one of Hashemi’s bodyguards claimed that the vice president and Issawi ran death squads in Fallujah in 2006. It was later reported that the bodyguard was tortured to acquire the confession. Maliki had accused Issawi of involvement with violence the year before as well. In 2010 General Ray Odierno sent a letter to Maliki telling him that U.S. intelligence had reviewed Issawi’s case and found nothing against him. In 2005-2006 Fallujah was an insurgent center and Issawi ran a hospital there leading to suspicions that he must have either cooperated with or been with the militants. Maliki constantly played upon that background even though the Americans did not believe there was anything to it.

If the Iraqi government was so committed to taking Issawi to court for terrorism charges in 2012 and threatened to do so in 2011, what changed in 2015? The case against Issawi was always a political move by Prime Minister Maliki. Charging his rivals with involvement with violence would not only force them out of office, but discredit them with the public as well. With Maliki no longer premier however, there was no pressure on the courts to follow through with such a case anymore. Instead, Issawi was found guilty of corruption charges that any Iraqi minister could have been charged with. Still, Maliki ultimately won because Issawi’s political career is probably over for the foreseeable future.

FOOTNOTES

1. Al Rafidayn, “Alfalh: 20 families of Anbar filed lawsuits against al-Issawi and protection elements Hashemi,” 12/22/12

SOURCES

Adnan, Duraid and Arango, Tim, “Arrest of a Sunni Minister’s Bodyguards Prompts Protests in Iraq,” New York Times, 12/21/12

Alsumaria, “Integrity issued a new jail sentence against former Finance Minister and senior officials,” 1/21/16

Associated Press, “Iraq finance minister says staff members kidnapped,” 12/20/12

- “Sunni demonstrators challenge Iraq’s Shiite-led government, denounce bodyguards’ arrest,” 12/23/12

BBC, “Protests engulf west Iraq as Anbar rises against Maliki,” 1/2/13

Dananer, “Haitham al-Jubouri: former finance minister was involved nine corrupted files,” 7/23/13

Dodge, Toby, “The resistible rise of Nuri al-Maliki,” Open Democracy, 3/22/12

Gordon, Michael, “Tensions Rise in Baghdad With Raid on Official,” New York Times, 12/20/12

Healy, Jack and Gordon, Michael, “A Moderate Official at Risk in a Fracturing Iraq,” New York Times, 12/30/11

International Crisis Group, “Make or Break: Iraq’s Sunnis and the State,” 8/14/13

Jabar, Faleh, Mansour, Renad, Khaddaj, Abir, “Maliki and the Rest: A Crisis within a Crisis,” Iraq Institute for Strategic Studies, July 2012

Al-Mada, “Government circulated judicial arrest warrant Rafie al-Issawi on all security institutions and internal checkpoints and border,” 3/14/13

- “Integrity Commission: Issawi sentenced to seven years,” 12/1/15

- “Power of the Prime Minister’s Office arrested facilities Rafie al-Issawi,” 12/20/12

Mardini, Ramzy, “Iraq After the U.S. Withdrawal: Update #1,” Institute for the Study of War, 12/19/11

- “Iraq’s First Post-Withdrawal Crisis,” Institute for the Study of War, 12/19/11

National Iraqi News Agency, “Anbar Cleric Council demanding to declare civil disobedience,” 12/22/12

- “Demonstrations in Salah al-Din condemns “arbitrary measures” against Issawi protection members,” 12/21/12

- “Demonstrations pro-Issawi in the cities of Alqaim and Rotba of Anbar province,” 12/21/12

- “Protesters from Fallujah cut off the international highway and heading to Baghdad,” 12/21/12

Radio Nawa, “Bayraktar: an arrest warrant for official protection Issawi was issued some time ago but he was on the run,” 12/22/12

Al Rafidayn, “Alfalh: 20 families of Anbar filed lawsuits against al-Issawi and protection elements Hashemi,” 12/22/12

- “Missions, palaces and murder topple Issawi .. An arrest warrant waiting for him,” 4/6/13

Rayburn, Joel, Iraq After America, Strongmen, Sectarians, Resistance, Hoover Institution Press: Stanford, 2014

Salaheddin, Sinan and Schreck, Adam, “Iraq confirms arrest of minister’s bodyguards,” Associated Press, 12/21/12

Schreck, Adam and Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, “Iraq: New Protests Break out in Sunni Stronghold,” Associated Press, 12/26/12

Shafaq News, “Salahuddin calls its masses to demonstrate peacefully to express their demands,” 12/31/12

Sotaliraq, “Integrity: Court of Misdemeanors issues one year imprisonment against Issawi,” 12/22/15

- “Integrity: Criminal Court sentenced Issawi to seven years in prison,” 12/1/15

Sowell, Kirk, “Inside Iraqi Politics No. 30,” 1/3/12

Van Wilgenburg, Wladimir, “Iraqi Government Will Possible Arrest More Sunni Leaders,” Transnational Middle-East Observer, 12/22/11

Wyer, Sam, “Political Update: Mapping the Iraq Protests,” Institute for the Study of War, 1/11/13

Security In Iraq, Jan 15-21, 2016

At the end of 2015 the Islamic State launched an offensive against the Kurds in Ninewa and Kirkuk. That was followed by some headline grabbing terrorist attacks in Baghdad and Diyala in January 2016. That all ended in the third week of the month as violence returned to its normal levels.

There were 135 security incidents reported in the press from January 15-21, 2016. Baghdad witnessed the most violence with 65 attacks, followed by 25 in Salahaddin, 17 in Anbar, 9 in Ninewa, 6 in Kirkuk, 5 in Babil and Diyala each, and one in Basra, Dhi Qar, and Sulaymaniya respectively.

Those attacks led to 275 deaths and 227 injuries. 4 Hashd al-Shaabi, 5 Peshmerga, 13 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 253 civilians were killed, and 4 Peshmerga, 30 ISF, and 193 civilians were wounded. By province, Anbar was the deadliest with 124 fatalities. After that there were 65 in Ninewa, 59 in Baghdad, 10 in Salahaddin, 8 in Kirkuk, 5 in Babil, and 4 in Diyala.

The heaviest fighting continued to occur in Anbar where the security forces were trying to clear the Islamic State out of the eastern suburbs of Ramadi. The government reported more progress in that effort declaring Albu Khalifa, Albu Mahal, Sufiya, and Albu Ghanam freed. Husaiba was also attacked during the week. In Sufiya’s case, this was the third time in January that it was called freed of IS, yet operations were still underway there afterward. This was also the eighth time the Iraqi forces had gone into Husaiba since July. Ramadi appears to be emptied of IS elements, and now the main focus is upon the suburbs to prevent the militants from re-infiltrating into the area.

Anbar had the most reported casualties out of Iraq’s 18 provinces during the week with 124 dead and 12 wounded. That was because the government reported that 120 civilians had been killed in the operation to free the city.

During the week there were constant reports of progress in southern Fallujah, but with no evidence. Instead the government talked about its operations in Thar Thar, which is to the north. That probably meant the Fallujah campaign had stalled once again. It was begun simultaneously with the Ramadi one in July by the Hashd, and then stopped in October. It was restarted in December, but once again doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. As for Thar Thar, the joint forces have carried out sweeps there on and off again for months. IS has been able to move its men in and out of the area into neighboring Salahaddin in response to government pressure leaving it a contested territory.

The Islamic State remained focused upon southern Baghdad. There were 23 incidents in that section of the governorate during the week. Three of those incidents were dead bodies being found, which could have been the work of insurgents, vigilantes or Hashd elements. The Dora district was also where American contractors were kidnapped. The rest of the attacks appeared to be the work of IS such as 12 improvised explosive devices (IEDs). In the east there were 15 incidents, but half of those could have been the work of criminals, vigilantes or Hashd such as two robberies and various dead bodies being dumped. Crime in fact has been on the increase in both Baghdad and southern Iraq during the instability generated by the war. Every few days a major robbery is reported in the capital for example. In the rest of the governorate there were 12 incidents in the north, 11 in the west and 3 in the center. IS is active in all the outer regions of Baghdad and the surrounding provinces. Its networks extend all the way into the middle of the city as well. As the group has shifted to the defensive it is concentrating upon the capital in an attempt to stoke sectarian tension by striking Shiite areas, as well as to undermine the public’s confidence in the government with constant bombings and shootings. IS really picked up its operations in the capital during the week, and there were 65 incidents total, which was the highest amount since the third week of July 2015.

Security Incidents Baghdad Jan 15-21, 2016

Center: 3 – 1 Kidnapping, 2 IEDs

East: 14 – 1 Grenade, 1 Sticky Bombs, 2 Robberies, 3 IEDs, 7 Shootings

Outer East: 1 – 1 Sticky Bomb

North: 9 – 1 Robbery, 1 Robbery/Shooting, 1 Grenade, 1 Sticky Bomb, 2 Shootings, 3 IEDs

Outer North: 3 – 1 Beheading, 1 Sticky Bomb, 1 IED

South: 12 – 1 Kidnapping Americans, 1 Strangling, 1 Stabbing, 1 Sticky Bomb, 4 Shootings, 4 IEDs

Outer South: 11 – 1 Stabbing, 2 Shootings, 8 IEDs

West: 10 – 1 Robbery, 1 Robbery/Shooting, 2 Shootings, 2 Sticky Bombs, 4 IEDs

Outer West: 1 – 1 IED

After a huge surge in violence in Diyala during the second week of January topped off by a double IS bombing in Muqtadiya that led to Hashd retaliatory attacks upon Sunnis, things de-escalated the following week. There were only five incidents reported from January 15-21. Three of those however were clashes with IS, which have not happened for quite some time in the province. Usually attacks in Diyala are isolated shootings and IEDs with some mortar fire sprinkled in. IS is definitely up to something in Diyala, but what it’s goals and purposes are not known yet.

Dead bodies continued to appear throughout Kirkuk province. 8 bodies were found in four different locations during the week. The week before one body was discovered in the governorate, 8 the first week of January, and then 2 at the end of December. Who is responsible for these incidents is unknown, but it is definitely a change from what was seen in Kirkuk the previous months.

At the end of December the Islamic State launched a winter offensive against the Kurds in Ninewa, and to a lesser extent in Kirkuk. Every day IS hit a different part of the line looking for a week point. That ended during the third week of January. There was only one incident in Kazar with a mortar attack that killed five Peshmerga and wounded four others. An air strike was blamed for killing 11 civilians and injuring 6 in Mosul on January 18. The Islamic State was also accused of executing 49 people in Mosul and Bashiqa.

Heavy clashes continued in Salahaddin. Samarra Island in the center and Tal Kasaiba, the Ajeel and Alas oil fields, and the Makhoul Mountains in the northeast saw large scale skirmishes throughout the week that included three bulldozer bombs, five suicide bombers and eight car bombs destroyed or killed. There was also fighting in Alam just south of Tikrit. IS launched these as counter attacks after the loss of Ramadi. IS has used Salahaddin for months now as a diversionary front to draw attention and manpower away from its main focus in Anbar, and that continues to the present.

The third week of January was another sign that IS’s car bomb campaign was over. There were only 14 vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) launched during the week, the lowest amount for months. More importantly not a single one was successful with all of them destroyed in attacks upon the joint forces.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015-16

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	226	540	525
Jan 8-14	187	776	514
Jan 15-21	197	438	528
Jan 22-28	207	573	898 + 150
Jan 29-31	94	329	567
JAN	911	2,656	3,032 + 150
Feb 1-7	168	572	689
Feb 8-14	183	462	572
Feb 15-21	177	697	383
Feb 22-28	202	614	722
FEB	730	2,345	2,366
Mar 1-7	196	408	595
Mar 8-14	164	419	655
Mar 15-21	178	1,312	505
Mar 22-28	201	310	406
Mar 29-31	81	212 + 4	218 + 150
MAR	820	2,665	2,529
Apr 1-7	153	276	422
Apr 8-14	165	864	525
Apr 15-21	190	880	714
Apr 22-28	187	564	479
Apr 29-30	56	169	182 + 299
APR	751	2,753	2,621
May 1-7	176	651	448
May 8-14	167	450	542
May 15-21	149	996	390
May 22-28	131	362 + 1,499	344
May 29-31	49	87	164 + 646
MAY	672	2,546 + 1,499	1,888 + 646
Jun 1-7	155	534	475
Jun 8-14	146	649 + 405	389
Jun 15-21	153	403	373
Jun 22-28	186	407	474
Jun 29-30	66	126 + 22	189 + 106
JUN	706	2,141 + 405	2,006
Jul 1-7	161	436	718
Jul 8-14	141	385	570
Jul 15-21	109	359	597 + 4,024
Jul 22-28	148	559	590
Jul 29-31	53	193 + 260	203 + 400
JUL	612	2,192	3,078 + 4,024
Aug 1-7	154	650 + 760	298
Aug 8-14	133	756	640
Aug 15-21	136	348	354
Aug 22-28	138	366	296
Aug 29-31	59	112	169
AUG	620	2,239 + 760	1,757
Sep 1-7	141	293	355
Sep 8-14	146	387	394
Sep 15-21	123	323	488
Sep 22-28	128	190	258
Sep 29-30	40	110 + 19	147 + 8
SEP	578	1,303 + 314	1,650 + 3,003
Oct 1-7	120	340	398
Oct 8-14	144	254	389
Oct 15-21	142	208	285
Oct 22-28	129	216	366
Oct 29-31	49	110	116
OCT	585	1,127	1,554
Nov 1-7	125	186	316
Nov 8-14	121	265	354
Nov 15-21	140	358	420
Nov 22-28	107	289	261 + 124 + 1,322
Nov 29-30	37	52 + 24	103 + 1
NOV	530	1,174	1,455 + 124 + 1,322
Dec 1-7	118	158	249
Dec 8-14	128	246	248
Dec 15-21	140	242	326 + 5,920
Dec 22-28	127	292	346
Dec 29-31	40	203 + 14	83
DEC	553	1,155	1,252 + 5,920
Jan 1-7	150	808	421
Jan 8-14	140	408	417
Jan 15-21	135	275	227

Security By Province Jan 8-14, 2016

Province	Jan 8-14
Anbar	17 Incidents 124 Killed: 4 ISF, 120 Civilians 12 Wounded: 12 ISF 12 Shootings 1 IED 13 Suicide Bombers Killed 3 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	5 Incidents 5 Killed: 2 Civilians, 3 ISF 22 Wounded: 4 ISF, 18 Civilians 4 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb
Baghdad	65 Incidents 59 Killed: 1 Hashd, 3 ISF, 55 Civilians 160 Wounded: 5 ISF, 155 Civilians 19 Shootings 26 IEDs 7 Sticky Bombs 2 Grenades
Basra	1 Incident 1 IED
Dhi Qar	1 Incident 1 Grenade
Diyala	5 Incidents 4 Killed: 1 Civilian, 3 Hashd 4 Shootings
Kirkuk	6 Incidents 8 Killed: 8 Civilians 4 Shootings 1 Grenade
Ninewa	9 Incidents 65 Killed: 5 Peshmerga, 60 Civilians 10 Wounded: 4 Peshmerga, 6 Civilians 3 Shootings 1 Mortar
Salahaddin	25 Incidents 10 Killed: 3 ISF, 7 Civilians 22 Wounded: 9 ISF, 13 Civilians 13 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Rockets 5 Suicide Bombers Killed 11 Car Bombs Destroyed
Sulaymaniya	1 Incident 1 Wounded: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting

Car Bombs In Iraq, January 2016

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1	North of Ramadi x4, Anbar 35 Kilo, Haditha & North of Ramadi, Anbar – 11 destroyed	60	70
Jan 2	Albu Faraj, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Jan 3	Camp Speicher x2, Slaahaddin Barwana, Garma, Haditha Nazim & Ramadi, Anbar – 46 destroyed	20	17
Jan 4	Outside Haditha, Anbar Wadi Horan, Anbar - 3 destroyed Baya, Baghdad – 1 destroyed	11	30
Jan 5	Nikhaib x2 & Ramadi, Anbar Barwana, Niamiya & Ramadi, Anbar – 13 destroyed	8
Jan 6	Ramadi, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Jan 7
Totals	10 – 77 destroyed	99	117
Jan 8	Barwana, Anbar – 5 destroyed
Jan 9
Jan 10
Jan 11	Nahrawan & New Baghdad x2, Baghdad Muqtadiya, Diyala	69	118
Jan 12	Khalis, Diyala Jazeera, Salahaddin – 8 destroyed	3	10
Jan 13	East of Ramadi & Jubba, Anbar – 9 destroyed Mandali, Diyala – 1 destroyed
Jan 14	East & Tal Kasiba x2, Salahaddin Ajeel, Makhoul Mountains, Tal Kasiba, Salahaddin – 5 destroyed	7	6
Totals	8 – 28 Destroyed	79	134
Jan 15	Tal Kasiba, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed
Jan 16	Thar Thar, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Jan 17
Jan 18	Leine & Samarra Island, Salahaddin – 3 destroyed
Jan 19
Jan 20	Leine & Samarra Island, Salahaddin – 4 destroyed
Jan 21
Totals	0 – 14 Destroyed

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, "Fatlawi: Albu Khalifa and Albu Mahal areas fully liberated," Iraqi Nes, 1/16/16

AIN, "Daash car bombs destroyed by air strikes in Samarra Island," 1/18/16

Buratha News, "Destroyed a Daash terrorist car bomb in Samarra Island," 1/20/16

- "Killing of 36 terrorists including sucide bombers and destroyed four car bombs south of Fallujah," 1/16/16

- "Popular crowd cleared areas south-east of Lake Thar Thar north of Ramadi," 1/16/16

Al Mada, "The fall of 120 civilians in Ramadi curing clearing operations against Daash," 1/19/16

Al Masalah, "Killing of eight Daash in west of Samarra," 1/20/16

NINA, "/17/ civilians killed and wounded in bombing by the international coalition east of Mosul," 1/18/16

- "Daash Shell Khazar Region And Execute 4 Police Officers In Central Mosul," 1/17/16

Sarhan, Amre, "Security forces liberate al-Sufiyah area, says Anbar Council," Iraqi News, 1/15/16

Sotaliraq, "The dismantling of four car bombs east of Tikrit," 1/15/16

- "Security forces are making progress in liberating Husaybah area east of Ramadi," 1/16/16

- "Security forces liberate Albu Ghanim and rescue 37 families east of Ramadi," 1/15/16