Violence In Iraq July 2016

The end of the Islamic State’s annual spring offensive led to a decided drop in security incidents and casualties in Iraq in July 2016. What took its place was a low level of insurgent attacks punctuated with mass casualty bombings, including the second deadliest since 2003 with the Karrada bombing in Baghdad that happened at the start of the month.

The Islamic State got off to an early start with its spring offensive in 2016 with 20 or more incidents per day starting in January and lasting until June. In July there were only 17.0 incidents per day.

Avg. Incidents Per Day

Jan 22.4

Feb 21.8

Mar 21.5

Apr 20.7

May 21.6

Jun 20.9

Jul 17.0

For the month, there were 529 incidents, 1,327 killed, and 1,667 wounded. That compared to 759 dead and 1,207 injured reported by the United Nations and 1,369 fatalities by Iraq Body Count, which did not cover soldiers, but did include Islamic State members executed by the group and killed in Coalition air strikes. The fact that the dead and injured figures were relatively close was another sign that the Iraqi government continues to suppress its losses because wounded should be 2-5 times higher than the fatalities.

With the liberation of Fallujah violence in Anbar dropped off decidedly. In June there were 123 incidents, 782 dead, and 4,743 wounded. The high casualty figures were the result of the Fallujah operation. That compared to July when there were just 40 incidents, 77 dead and 27 wounded. Most of those attacks took place in central and western Anbar where IS was launching small counter attacks against the latest government operations. There were also two successful car bombs in July against the security forces.

Babil remained relatively quiet. There were just 9 incidents leading to 4 dead and 5 wounded. That was similar to previous months such as June when there were 10 incidents, 1 killed, and 4 injured. Most of July’s attacks were IEDs, 7 total.

As the Islamic State has lost territory it has come to focus upon terrorist and insurgent attacks in Baghdad. That led to the second deadliest attack in post-03 Iraq with the Karrada bombing at the start of the month that killed 324 and left at least 200 wounded. As usual IS concentrated its attacks upon the southern section of the province with 108 incidents. After that there were 78 in the north, 44 in the west, 40 in the east, 6 in the center, and 1 at an unknown location. Almost half of the incidents in Baghdad, 131 were in the rural areas where IS has networks established in Sunni villages. There were a total of 276 incidents, 713 killed, and 1,387 wounded. Besides the Karrada car bomb, there were 3 others in July, along with 5 suicide bombers. The real driver of casualties however was the daily IEDs with 170, along with 21 sticky bombs.

Violence In Baghdad, July 2016

Center: 6 – 1 Suicide Car Bomb, 1 Sticky Bomb, 1 Kidnapping, 1 IED, 2 Shootings

East: 31 – 1 Sound Bomb, 1 Strangling, 1 Kidnapping, 1 Shooting/Kidnapping, 1 Sticky Bomb, 2 Shootings/Robberies, 4 Shootings, 12 IEDs

Outer East: 9 – 1 Shooting/Robbery, 1 Sticky Bomb, 1 Shooting, 6 IEDs

North: 36 – 1 Robbery, 2 Suicide Bombers, 2 IEDs Dismantled, 2 Kidnappings, 3 Sticky Bombs, 8 Shootings, 17 IEDs

Outer North: 42 –1 Sticky Bomb Dismantled, 1 Shooting/Robbery, 1 Grenade, 2 Car Bombs Dismantled, 2 Suicide Car Bombs, 2 Sticky Bombs, 2 Suicide Bombers, 2 Suicide Bombers Arrested, 4 Suicide Bombers Killed, 4 Shootings, 4 Suicide Bombers Killed, 24 IEDs

South: 50 – 1 Car Bomb, 1 Kidnapping, 1 Shooting/Kidnapping, 1 Suicide Bomber Killed, 1 Rockets, 1 Sticky Bomb, 2 Mortars, 8 Shooting, 34 IEDs

Outer South: 58 – 1 Suicide Bomber Killed, 1 Kidnapping, 1 Suicide Bomber, 4 Sticky Bombs, 7 Shootings, 44 IEDs

West: 22 – 1 Rockets, 4 Sticky Bombs, 4 Shootings, 13 IEDs

Outer West: 22 –1 Strangled, 1 Shooting/Robbery, 2 Shootings, 3 Sticky Bombs, 15 IEDs

Unknown: 1 – 4 Suicide Bombers Arrested

In 2016 IS has been picking up its operations in Diyala. Most of those are small-scale insurgent attacks like IEDs and shootings, but the group is also attempting mass casualty bombings there as well. 1 suicide car bomb detonated during the month, and 3 others were dismantled, along with 9 suicide bombers either being killed or arrested. In total, there were 65 incidents, 53 dead and 52 wounded.

Kirkuk was relatively quite for the last two months after a jump during the spring offensive. There were 44 incidents, 77 dead, and 33 injured in July. The month started off with small scale attacks and executions, but then IS shifted to attacking the Peshmerga every week and topped it off with a raid upon a gas facility and oil field in Bai Hassan. The latter temporarily shut down the two facilities costing the Kurdistan Regional Government several million dollars in lost revenue.

Turkey is bombing the northern regions of Kurdistan almost every week yet few results are ever published. July was an exception with the Turks claiming they killed 20 PKK fighters in one raid.  

IS was mostly concerned with pushing back against the Iraqi army’s advances in the Qayara district in Ninewa, but also took time to attack the Kurds and carry out executions in areas under its control. In July the Iraqi army pushed into the Qayara district and seized an important military base there that it hopes to use in the future Mosul campaign. In response, IS launched several counter attacks as well as executing 102 civilians who tried to flee the area. The insurgents also made sporadic attacks upon the Peshmerga with mortars and infantry assaults. In total, the Islamists executed 224 people in the province. For the month there were 51 incidents in Ninewa, 276 dead, and 48 wounded.

Salahaddin was once one of the main battlefronts in Iraq, but attacks there have been dwindling in 2016. In July there were just 35 incidents, 104 dead, and 112 wounded. Incidents were spread across the province with usual targets like the Makhoul Mountains and the Alas oil field in the northeast to Tuz Kharmato to Tikrit in the center to Balad and Shirqat in the north. 

As IS’s spring campaign came to an end, so did its wave of car bombs. In January there were 36 successful car bombs. Then there was a dip with just 9 in February, but then picked up with 18 in March, 13 in April, 29 in May, 14 in June, and then down to 7 in July.

Violence In Iraq 2016

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	171	856	421
Jan 8-14	160	517	413
Jan 15-21	160	403	223
Jan 22-28	149	445	320
Jan 29-31	55	133	334
JAN	695	2,345	1,711
Feb 1-7	176	611	312
Feb 8-14	143	230	323
Feb 15-21	157	392	239
Feb 22-29	160	382	690
FEB	635	1,615	1,565
Mar 1-7	183	321	478
Mar 8-14	168	408	415
Mar 15-21	130	350	417
Mar 22-28	138	226	420
Mar 29-31	50	186	121
MAR	669	1,489	1,843
Apr 1-7	154	384	444
Apr 8-14	144	294	391
Apr 15-21	128	498	242
Apr 22-28	166	479	524
Apr 29-30	31	65	121
APR	623	1,720	1,722
May 1-7	164	386	420
May 8-14	147	407	674
May 15-21	127	385	604
May 22-28	149	245	397
May 29-31	84	122	313
MAY	671	1,545	2,409
Jun 1-7	177	608	1,606
Jun 8-14	136	344	461
Jun 15-21	154	407	497
Jun 22-28	123	312	362
Jun 29-30	39	427	125
JUN	629	2,098	6,315
Jul 1-7	120	589	633
Jul 8-14	129	242	316
Jul 15-21	123	168	266
Jun 22-28	115	234	366
Jul 29-31	42	94	86
JUL	529	1,327	1,667

Security By Province July 2016

Province	Incidents
Anbar	40 Incidents 77 Killed: 3 Hashd, 14 ISF, 60 Civilians 27 Wounded: 6 Hashd, 10 Civilians, 11 ISF 12 Shootings 6 IEDs 2 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Mortars 9 Suicide Bombers Killed 2 Suicide Motorcycle Bombs Destroyed 15 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 32 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	9 Incidents 4 Killed: 4 Civilians 5 Wounded: 1 Civilian, 2 ISF, 2 Hashd 1 Shooting 7 IEDs 1 Mortar
Baghdad	276 Incidents 713 Killed: 4 Sahwa, 11 Hashd, 38 ISF, 660 Civilians 1,387 Wounded: 4 Sahwa, 24 Hashd, 54 ISF, 1,305 Civilians 49 Shootings 170 IEDs 21 Sticky Bombs 5 Suicide Bombers 3 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb 2 Mortars 2 Rockets 1 Grenade 16 Suicide Bombers Killed/Arrested 2 Car Bombs Dismantled
Basra	2 Incidents 2 IEDs
Dhi Qar	1 Incident 1 IED
Diyala	65 Incidents 53 Killed: 2 ISF, 2 Hashd, 49 Civilians 52 Wounded: 1 Hashd, 4 ISF, 47 Civilians 23 Shootings 18 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Suicide Car Bomb 4 Mortars 9 Suicide Bombers Killed/Arrested 1 Suicide Car Bomb Arrested 2 Car Bombs Dismantled
Dohuk	1 Incident 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 2 Wounded: 2 Civilians 1 IED
Kirkuk	44 Incidents 77 Killed: 1 ISF, 6 Peshmerga, 70 Civilians 33 Wounded: 5 Peshmerga, 28 Civilians 21 Shootings 7 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs 1 Rockets 2 Mortars 4 Suicide Bombers Killed/Arrested
KRG	1 Incident 20 Killed: 20 PKK 1 Turkish Air Strike
Ninewa	51 Incidents 276 Killed: 10 ISF, 10 Peshmerga, 256 Civilians 48 Wounded: 5 ISF, 10 Peshmerga, 33 Civilians 15 Shootings 38 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 5 Mortars 1 Rocket 17 Suicide Bombers Killed/Arrested 15 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 2 Car Bombs Destroyed
Salahaddin	35 Incidents 104 Killed: 2 Peshmerga, 4 ISF, 8 Hashd, 90 Civilians 112 Wounded: 1 Peshmerga, 12 Hashd, 99 Civilians 16 Shootings 6 IEDs 1 Sticy Bomb 3 Suicide Bombers 2 Mortars 1 Rockets 7 Suicide Bombers killed 6 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 13 Car Bombs Destroyed
Sulaymaniya	1 Incident 1 Wounded: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting
Wasit	3 Incidents 1 Killed: 1 ISF 1 Shooting 1 Sound Bomb 1 Grenade

Car Bombs In Iraq July 2016

Date	Car Bombs	Dead	Wounded
Jul 1	Sheikh Ali, Taloul al-Baj, Salahaddin – 9 destroyed
Jul 2	Khalidiya Island, Anbar – 4 destroyed Tal Skurf, Ninewa – 5 destroyed Makhoul, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
Jul 3	Karrada, Baghdad Jawaanh, Anbar – 3 destroyed	324	200
Jul 4	Khan Bani Saad & north of Baquba, Diyala – 2 destroyed Makhoul, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
Jul 5	Haditha Dist, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Jul 6	Jazeera, Anbar – 3 destroyed Shirqat, Salahaddin - 2 destroyed
Jul 7
Totals	1 – 32 Destroyed	324	200
Jul 8	Hit, Anbar – 4 destroyed Alam & Shirqat, Salahaddin – 2 Destroyed
Jul 9
Jul 10
Jul 11	Muqtadiya, Diyala – 1 Destroyed
Jul 12	Rashidiya, Baghdad	12	37
Jul 13	Rashidiya, Baghdad Albu Alwan & Hit, Anbar – 5 Destroyed	8	23
Jul 14	Hit, Anbar – 5 Destroyed Qayara, Ninewa – 2 Destroyed
Totals	2 – 19 Destroyed	20	60
Jul 15	Amil, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Jul 16	Haditha, Anbar – 4 destroyed
Jul 17	Khalidiya Island & Hit, Anbar – 4 destroyed
Jul 18	Rutba, Anbar Rutba, Anbar – 1 Destroyed	3	5
Jul 19	Tarmiya, Baghdad – 1 destroyed
Jul 20
Jul 21
Totals	1 – 12 Destroyed	3	5
Jul 22	Shirqat, Salahaddin – 3 destroyed
Jul 23
Jul 24
Jul 25	Amil, Baghdad Khalis, Diyala Haditha & Khalidiya Island, Anbar – 5 destroyed Horh, Baghdad – 1 Destroyed	17	27
Jul 26	Albu Nimr, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Jul 27	Sheikh Ali, Salahaddin 1 destroyed
Jul 28
Totals	2 – 11 Destroyed	17	27
Jul 29
Jul 30	Haj Ali, Ninewa – 10 destroyed
Jul 31	?, Anbar Khalidiya Island, Nukhaib, Thar Thar, Anbar – 4 destroyed	2	5
Totals	1 – 14 Destroyed	2	5
JULY	7 – 88 Destroyed	366	297

Political Battle For Control Of Iraq’s Anbar Province

Today, the Iraqi forces are in the process of freeing the remaining areas of Anbar from the Islamic State. As the province has been liberated however, a series of political battles have emerged over control of the government. The main dispute is between some tribal sheikhs and the Sunni Endowment versus the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) that has run the governorate since 2005. No one is coming out looking good in the process, and the fight is not helping Anbar that is facing a humanitarian crisis.

The first battle over Anbar’s governance involved the Sunni Endowment and the Islamic Party competing to get people to return to Ramadi even though the city was unsafe and full of unexploded ordinance. At the start of February 2016 Friday prayers were given at the Grand Mosque for the first time since the city was freed, and a call was made for the displaced to come back. Prime Minister Haidar Abadi had appointed the head of the Sunni Endowment the chairman of returns, so this announcement held weight in Anbar. This was made despite local officials saying that Ramadi would not be cleared of IEDs for 2-6 months at a minimum. Despite that people listened to the Sunni Endowment and began returning in droves. That got the politicians to begin saying that the displaced should come back in the city as well. The result was that dozens of people were killed and wounded by bombs left behind by the Islamic State. That brought out the rivalry between the Islamic Party and the Endowment into the open as the former accused the latter of being responsible for the casualties. The head of he Sunni Endowment responded with the ridiculous allegation that the Islamic Party was planting IEDs in the city to undermine his work as returns chairman. That seemed to end it between the two with the Sunni Endowment eventually backing down. The fact that over 100 people were reportedly hurt and killed in the process showed the crass nature of the conflict.

The next phase of the battle was over Governor Suhaib al-Rawi with tribal sheikhs and members of the Anbar council attempting to dismiss him. This started with Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha and members of the Anbar council calling itself the Reform bloc accusing the governor of financial mismanagement and not assisting the province’s displaced. The Sunni Endowment supported the opposition, while the governor had his Islamic Party as well as the Solution bloc led by Jamal Karbouli, a longtime Sunni leader in parliament. To stave off the criticism in mid-June the IIP and the Solution bloc asked parliament to dissolve the council and hold early elections in Anbar. The opposition struck back by voting out Governor Rawi on June 28. Rawi appealed his case to the courts and won on July 27, and then said he would get the council dismissed to be rid of his opponents. Even if that doesn’t happen Governor Rawi has already won by staying in office. On the other hand, getting rid of the council and electing a new one won’t happen as there are so many displaced from the province voting is impossible right now. That means the back and forth between the two will continue for the foreseeable future as neither side is happy.

Unhappiness with the Islamic Party is nothing knew in Anbar. It came to power in 2005 by simply running for office as most of the other parties boycotted the provincial elections that year because they were opposed to the U.S. occupation and the new Iraq. It has run the governorate ever since. In 2006 it was challenged by the Awakening, which was made up of rural sheikhs mostly from the Ramadi area who resented the Islamic Party’s reign. Later the party joined the protest movement that started in 2012 against Prime Minister Maliki and the central government, but then flipped to Baghdad, which angered many. Now this latest dispute is emerging as Anbar is being freed from the Islamic State. Rival parties are trying to pin the woes of the province on the Islamic Party, but so far they have lost. Calling for people to return to Ramadi when it wasn't safe backfired, and the attempt to get rid of the governor was overturned. That leaves the two sides deadlocked and waiting for the next controversy they can pounce on to try to undo the other. This comes at the worst of time as both Fallujah and the central government are broke leaving no money to help the displaced or rebuild any of the areas that are being freed from the militants. Provincial elections are not set to take place until next year, and in Anbar’s case may be delayed if a majority of the internal refugees are still not back in their homes. That leaves months for this rivalry to play out.

SOURCES

AIN, “Anbar governor’s bloc: Parliament will vote next week to solve the provincial council,” 7/28/16

Buratha News, “Postponement of the appeal of the dismissal of the governor of Anbar province,” 7/25/16

Iraq News Network, “Tribal Council accuses the governor of Anbar of leading schemes to obstruct the return of displaced persons,” 7/21/16

Kalin, Stephen, “Islamic State mines kill dozens of civilians returning to Ramadi,” Reuters, 4/22/16

Al Mada, “Administrative Court rejects the decision to dismiss the governor of Anbar,” 7/28/16

- “Anbar Council facing imminent dissolution due to threats between the Islamic Party and Awakening,” 6/21/16

- “Anbar governor announces the formation of a committee to investigate the accusations against Al-Hmam and invites him to present evidence,” 4/23/16

- “Anbar tribes demanding “sack corrupt” in government,” 7/6/16

- “Break the siege on Haditha lowers prices and tempts the displaced to return..and the army surrounds Fallujah,” 5/12/16

- “Clearing mines in Ramadi needs two months .. And politics hinder freeing Garma,” 3/17/16

- “Al-Hmam accuse Daash leaders of being in Ramadi and rushing to return 19 thousand families,” 4/26/16

- “Mutual accusations between the Islamic Party and Sunni Endowment regarding booby-trapped homes in Ramadi,” 4/23/16

- “Reform bloc in Anbar: Our members are subject to threats and blackmail,” 7/16/16

- “Second official calls on Al-Hmam to provide evidence of booby trapping homes,” 4/27/16

New Sabah, “For the first time after the liberation of Ramadi..Friday prayers at Great Mosque,” 2/5/16

Reuters, “Iraqi military freezes civilians’ return to Ramadi over mine deaths,” 4/24/16

Saadoun Mustafa, “Will conflict continue as Iraq’s Sunni areas are liberated from IS?” Al Monitor, 7/14/16

Sattar, Omar, “What’s next for Iraq’s Anbar after liberation from IS,” Al Monitor, 6/30/16

Sotaliraq, “Anbar provincial council majority voted out Governor Suhaib al-Rawi,” 6/28/16

- “Ramadi needs six months to remove improvised explosives devices and war waste in city,” 3/20/16