Friday, November 14, 2008

Overview Of Iraq’s Provinces

On October 30, the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) released its latest quarterly report to Congress on the state of Iraq. As usual, it includes a breakdown of each of Iraq’s eighteen provinces. They cover the budgets, rankings of governance and development, the number of attacks, electricity supply, the number of internally displaced, amongst other information. Here is an overview of Iraq’s provinces with comparisons with the July SIGIR report when available.

Population
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, and Sulaymaniya) 4,621,600
Baghdad 6,386,100
Ninewa 2,473,700
Basra 1,761,000
Babil 1,444,400
Dhi Qar 1,427,200
Diyala 1,373,900
Anbar 1,280,000
Salahaddin 1,077,800
Najaf 946,300
Wasit 941,800
Diwaniya/Qadisiyah 866,700
Tamim 839,100
Karbala 756,000
Maysan 743,400
Muthanna 536,300
Total: 27,475,300

Religion
Anbar: 99% Sunni, 1% Shiite
Babil: 5% Sunni, 95% Shiite
Baghdad: 20% Sunni, 80% Shiite
Basra: 100% Shiite
Dhi Qar: 100% Shiite
Diwaniya/Qadisiyah: 100% Shiite
Diyala: 52% Sunni, 58% Shiite
Karbala: 100% Shiite
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya): 71% Sunni, 7% Shiite, 22% other
Maysan: 100% Shiite
Muthanna: 100% Shiite
Najaf: 100% Shiite
Ninewa: 42% Sunni, 5% Shiite, 53% other
Salahaddin: 96% Sunni, 4% Shiite
Tamim: 73% Sunni, 22% Shiite, 5% other
Wasit: 100% Shiite

Internally Displaced
Note: The large difference in figures from July to October is due to the fact that the numbers come from two different agencies. The July numbers come from the United States Agency for International Development, while the October ones come from the United States Embassy in Baghdad.
Anbar
  • July 08: 64,536
  • Oct 08: 79,763
  • Difference: +15,227
Babil
  • July 08: 77,914
  • Oct 08: 25,839
  • Difference: -52,075
Baghdad
  • July 08: 563,771
  • Oct 08: 1,785,680
  • Difference: +1,221,909
Basra
  • July 08: 35,718
  • Oct 08: 46,060
  • Difference: +10,342
Dhi Qar
  • July 08: 47,825
  • Oct 08: 1,966
  • Difference: -45,859
Diwaniya/Qadisiyah
  • July 08: 26,320
  • Oct 08: 843
  • Difference: -25,477
Diyala
  • July 08: 103,426
  • Oct 08: 550,477
  • Difference: +447,051
Karbala
  • July 08: 55,962
  • Oct 08: 562
  • Difference: 55,400
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, and Sulaymaniya)
  • July 08: Dohuk 104,948, Irbil 31,783, Sulaymaniya 79,762, total: 216,493
  • Oct 08: 4,213
  • Difference: -212,280
Maysan
  • July 08: 46,948
  • Oct 08: 281
  • Total: -46,667
Muthanna
  • July 08: 18,351
  • Oct 08: 281
  • Difference: -18,070
Najaf
  • July 08: 58,032
  • Oct 08: N/A
  • Difference: N/A
Ninewa
  • July 08: 106,750
  • Oct 08: 158,683
  • Difference: +51,933
Salahaddin
  • July 08: 45,762
  • Oct 08: 87,065
  • Difference: +41,303
Tamim
  • July 08: 36,202
  • Oct 08: 59,541
  • Difference: +23,339
Wasit
  • July 08: 75,325
  • Oct 08: 6,179
  • Difference: -69,146
Total:
  • July 08: 1,579,335
  • Oct 08: 2,807,433
  • Difference: +1,228,098

Date Iraq Given Control of Province:
Muthanna: July 2006
Dhi Qar: September 2006
Najaf: December 2006
Maysan: April 2007
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya): May 2007
Karbala: October 2007
Basra: December 2007
Diwaniya/Qadisiyah: July 2008
Anbar: September 2008
Babil: October 2008
Wasit: October 2008
Tamim: Planned January 2009
Salahaddin: Planned January 2009
Diyala: Planned February 2009
Ninewa: Planned March 2009
Baghdad: Planned May 2009

Capital Budget and Spending
Note: Capital budget is money spent investing in infrastructure. Iraq’s provinces still have major problems spending their money. Maysan 41%, Anbar 42%, Babil 43%, Kurdistan 61%, Najaf 65% have done the best with their budget expenditures, while Diyala 0%, Basra 0.4%, Ninewa 0.4%, Muthanna 9%, Dhi Qar 17%, and Diwaniya/Qadisiyah 18% have done the worst.
Anbar
  • 2007: $107 mil, 3.7% spent
  • July 08: $192 mil, N/A
  • Oct 08: $323.0 mil, 42% spent
Babil
  • 2007: $127 mil, 49% spent
  • July 08: $206 mil, 3% spent
  • Oct 08: $200.8 mil, 43% spent
Baghdad
  • 2007: $560 mil, 31% spent
  • July 08: $884.5 mil, 2% spent
  • Oct 08: $884.5 mil, 25% spent
Basra
  • 2007: $195 mil, 21% spent
  • July 08: $322 mil, 0% spent
  • Oct 08: $306.1 mil, 0.4% spent
Dhi Qar
  • 2007: $138 mil, 40% spent
  • July 08: $219 mil, 0.1% spent
  • Oct 08: $215.8 mil, 17% spent
Diwaniya/Qadisiyah
  • 2007: $64 mil, 39% spent
  • July 08: $137 mil, 0% spent
  • Oct 08: $132.4 mil, 18% spent
Diyala
  • 2007: $100 mil, N/A spent
  • July 08: $167.9 mil, N/A
  • Oct 08: $167.9 mil, 0% spent
Karbala
  • 2007: $71 mil, 41% spent
  • July 08: $170 mil, 4% spent
  • Oct 08: $115.2 mil, 22% spent
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya)
  • 2007: $1.560 bil, 95% spent
  • July 08: $2.528 bil, 11% spent
  • Oct 08: $2.528 bil, 61% spent
Maysan
  • 2007: $76 mil, 51% spent
  • July 08: $124 mil, 14% spent
  • Oct 08: $120.5 mil, 41% spent
Muthanna
  • 2007: $52 mil, 19% spent
  • July 08: $87 mil, N/A
  • Oct 08: $83.4 mil, 9% spent
Najaf
  • 2007: $88 mil, 64% spent
  • July 08: $150 mil, 13% spent
  • Oct 08: $142.3 mil, 65% spent
Ninewa
  • 2007: $226 mil, 26% spent
  • July 08: $359 mil/0% spent
  • Oct 08: $357.7 mil, 0.4% spent
Salahaddin
  • 2007: $93 mil, $34 mil
  • July 08: $150 mil, 11% spent
  • Oct 08: $147.4 mil, 25% spent
Tamim
  • 2007: $91 mi, 34% spent
  • July 08: $146 mil, 9% spent
  • Oct 08: $143.5 mil, 26% spent
Wasit
  • 2007: $83 mil, 41% spent
  • July 08: $137 mil, 0.2% spent
  • Oct 08: $134.7 mil, 25% spent

Provincial Reconstruction Teams Rankings
Note: The Provincial Reconstruction Teams work within Iraq’s provinces to improve governance and reconstruction. They have five rankings for Iraq’s provinces in terms of governance, political development, economic development, rule of law, and reconciliation. Babil, Baghdad, Dhi Qar, Diwaniya/Qadisiyah, Diyala, Karbala, Maysan, Muthanna, Najaf, and Wasit all improved. Anbar, Kurdistan, Ninewa, and Tamim had no changes. Salahaddin was the only province that received a declining ranking, while Basra had a mixed report.
PRT Rankings: 5 rankings:
1. Beginning: Little progress on decision-making, provision of services,
political participation, fighting corruption, basic freedoms, infrastructure, unemployment
2. Developing: Small improvements in economic development, government,
security. Still lack budget spending, basic freedoms, political participation, jobs, banks, fighting corruption
3. Sustaining: Getting better at working with national government, building
political parties, political participation, police. Still lacks coordination, appropriations, banks, still has tribal influences
4. Performing: Social and financial institutions and infrastructure working,
coordination, political participation, and transparency exists, banks opening, appropriations improving, transportation available, police and legal system building, security forces in the lead, tribes deferring to government
5. Self-reliance: Independent government with basic freedoms, security, political
and economic institutions working, religious tolerance, working legal system, security forces self-sufficient
Anbar: No change
  • Governance: Sustaining
  • Political Development: Sustaining
  • Economic Development: Developing
  • Rule of Law: Sustaining
  • Reconciliation: Sustaining
Babil: Improvement
  • Governance: Developing
  • Political Development: Improved to Sustaining
  • Economic Development: Sustaining
  • Rule of Law: Sustaining
  • Reconciliation: Beginning
Baghdad: Improvement
  • Governance: Developing
  • Political Development: Developing
  • Economic Development: Improved to Sustaining
  • Rule of Law: Sustaining
  • Reconciliation: Developing
Basra: Mixed
  • Governance: Improved to Performing
  • Political Development: Sustaining
  • Economic Development: Improved to Sustaining
  • Rule of Law: Decreased to Beginning
  • Reconciliation: Sustaining
Dhi Qar: Improvement
  • Governance: Sustaining
  • Political Development: Sustaining
  • Economic Development: Sustaining
  • Rule of Law: Increased to Sustaining
  • Reconciliation: Increased to Sustaining
Diwaniya/Qadisiyah: Improvement
  • Governance: Improved to Sustaining
  • Political Development: Developing
  • Economic Development: Improved to Developing
  • Rule of Law: Improved to Sustaining
  • Reconciliation: Beginning
Diyala: Improvement
  • Governance: Sustaining
  • Political Development: Improved to Sustaining
  • Economic Development: Developing
  • Rule of Law: Improved to Developing
  • Reconciliation: Developing
Karbala: Improvement
  • Governance: Improved to Sustaining
  • Political Development: Improved to Sustaining
  • Economic Development: Developing
  • Rule of Law: Improved to Sustaining
  • Reconciliation: Developing
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya): No change
  • Governance: Sustaining
  • Political Development: Performing
  • Economic Development: Developing
  • Rule of Law: Sustaining
  • Reconciliation: Performing
Maysan: Improvement
  • Governance: Improved to Developing
  • Political Development: Developing
  • Economic Development: Beginning
  • Rule of Law: Developing
  • Reconciliation: Sustaining
Muthanna: Improvement
  • Governance: Developing
  • Political Development: Beginning
  • Economic Development: Developing
  • Rule of Law: Improved to Developing
  • Reconciliation: Self-Reliant
Najaf: Improvement
  • Governance: Sustaining
  • Political Development: Improved to Sustaining
  • Economic Development: Sustaining
  • Rule of Law: Improved to Sustaining
  • Reconciliation: Improved to Sustaining
Ninewa: No change
  • Governance: Developing
  • Political Development: Developing
  • Economic Development: Developing
  • Rule of Law: Sustaining
  • Reconciliation: Beginning
Salahaddin: Decrease
  • Governance: Sustaining
  • Political Development: Decreased to Developing
  • Economic Development: Developing
  • Rule of Law: Developing
  • Reconciliation: Developing
Tamim: No Change
  • Governance: Developing
  • Political Development: Sustaining
  • Economic Development: Developing
  • Rule of Law: Developing
  • Reconciliation: Developing
Wasit: Improvement
  • Governance: Developing
  • Political Development: Improved to Sustaining
  • Economic Development: Improved to Developing
  • Rule of Law: Developing
  • Reconciliation: Beginning

Total Number of Attacks:
Note: Overall attacks recorded in the October report were down 64.4% from April 1 to September 30, 2008. Baghdad is still the most violent province, but saw a huge drop in attacks between the two reporting periods. That was due to the cessation of operations in Sadr City. Tamim, Anbar, Diyala, and Ninewa are the other provinces still seeing large amounts of violence, and the attack numbers there barely changed. Salahaddin however did see a large drop. In southern provinces such as Babil and Dhi Qar, most of the attacks are due to Iranian-backed Special Groups and members of the Mahdi Army not heading Sadr’s cease-fire.

Anbar
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 275
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 209
Babil
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 81
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 54
Baghdad
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 2,221
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 867
Basra
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 108
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 26
Dhi Qar
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 17
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 21
Diwaniya/Qadisiyah
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 17
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 7
Diyala
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 537
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 533
Karbala
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 1
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 4
Kurdistan
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 3
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 6
Maysan
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 12
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 43
Muthanna
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 2
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 1
Najaf
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 4
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 1
Ninewa
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 1,041
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 924
Salahaddin
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 717
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 486
Tamim
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 248
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 245
Wasit
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 34
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 8
Totals
  • 4/1/08-7/1/08: 5,318
  • 7/1/08-9/30/08: 3,425
Difference: 64.4% decrease

Electricity Supply And Demand
Note: All of the following numbers are averages for the reporting period, July to October 2008.

Anbar: Supply: 4,728 megawatts/Demand: 7,488 megawatts
Babil: Supply: 4,378 megawatts /Demand: 9,678 megawatts
Baghdad: Supply: 28,863 megawatts/Demand: 60,246 megawatts
Basra: Supply: 15,576 megawatts/Demand: 20,966 megawatts
Dhi Qar: Supply: 6,030 megawatts/Demand: 9,215 megawatts
Diwaniya/Qadisiyah: Supply: 2,925 megawatts/Demand: 5,760 megawatts
Diyala: Supply: 3,256 megawatts /Demand: 5,299 megawatts
Karbala: Supply: 3,035 megawatts/Demand: 6,222 megawatts
Kurdistan (Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya): Supply 12,725 megawatts/Demand: 20,746 megawatts
Maysan: Supply: 2,747 megawatts/Demand: 6,222 megawatts
Muthanna: Supply 2,380 megawatts/Demand: 4,610 megawatts
Najaf: Supply 3,999 megawatts/Demand: 8,525 megawatts
Ninewa: Supply 9,751 megawatts/Demand: 19,359 megawatts
Salahaddin: Supply 5,359 megawatts/Demand 8,754 megawatts
Tamim: Supply 4,291 megawatts/Demand: 7,373 megawatts
Wasit: Supply 3,089 megawatts/Demand: 6,914 megawatts
Totals: Supply: 113,141 megawatts/Demand: 207,377

SOURCES

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 7/30/08
- “Quarterly report to the United States Congress,” 10/30/08

4 comments:

AndrewSshi said...

It's interesting that Diyala and Ninevah both remain pretty dysfunctional. Which is why I suspect that Obama is still going to keep troops in those two provinces long after I MEF is only a memory in Al Anbar province.

Also, I'm suspicious of the figures on religious breakdown of certain provinces, especially those with allegedly 100% of a single sect.

Joel Wing said...

Those 100% Shiite provinces are in the south so I never questioned them. The only area where I've read about religious diversity there was in Basra where I think there were Christians, but most reports said they got run off by the militias. No idea how many of them were there in the first place or how many fled.

Dysfunctional is all in the eye of the beholder. Few of the provinces actually "work" without even counting the violence.

AndrewSshi said...

The reason I'm suspicious about the %100 numbers is that ISTR reading about Sunnis living in Basra. Now granted, the article was discussing attacks against them by the JAM, but I can't imagine that every last Sunni was run out of town.

As for what exactly counts as dysfunctional, I'd say that for any of Iraq, all that we can hope for at this point is "third wold corrupt." For better or worse, Ba'ath totalitarianism and the goatf**k of a lot of the earlier years of the occupation have left it so that that's about all that's achievable.

Joel Wing said...

Andrew, I found some more info about minorities Basra. A report in Niqash said about 20% of the province was Sunni. The U.N. also wanted one seat on the provincial council there to go to Christians, and that was passed by the parliament in the election law.

Review The Gamble, General David Petraeus And The American Military Adventure In Iraq, 2006-2008

Ricks, Thomas, The Gamble, General David Petraeus And The American Military Adventure In Iraq, 2006-2008 , New York: Penguin Press, 2009  ...