No Decrease In Violence For Mosul In May 2009

As reported before, the number of Iraqis killed declined in May 2009 compared to the previous month. According to Iraq’s ministries 165 people died in May. In April the government said 355 lost their lives. Other organizations that keep track of violence in Iraq had higher numbers, but also noted a drop. That could not be said for Mosul, which is the second deadliest city in Iraq. Last month the number of attacks and deaths went up, with only the wounded decreasing.

According to English-language press reports in May 2009 64 Iraqis were killed in Mosul. That made an average of 2.06 deaths per day. 146 were also wounded, for an average of 4.7 per day. These were the result of 95 attacks and incidents, an average of 3.06 per day. There were two mass casualty bombings that month, one on May 24 that wounded 34, and another on May 1 that killed five and wounded six. There were also a series of deadly home invasions where gunmen stormed houses and killed women and children. In April 53 died, 1.76 per day, and 191 wounded, 6.36 per day, due to 79 attacks and incidents, 2.63 average. From May to April then, the number of security incidents and killed went up, while the wounded went down.

The recent rise in violence has also been occurring while a major joint Iraqi-U.S. military operation has been going on in the city. In February 2009, Baghdad launched Operation New Hope. There are now 36,000 Iraqi soldiers and police, along with 5,000 U.S. troops in the city, in what some think might be the last major U.S. military operation before the withdrawal. The Iraqi units however, are said to be undermanned and underequipped, and the Iraqi Army commander does not think they can do the job without American support. For that reason, U.S. combat troops are expected to stay in the city past the June 30, 2009 deadline for them to be removed from all Iraqi cities. There is also a major U.S. base outside of Mosul that is not expected to be shut down either. This offensive so far, has not had its intended effects as the casualty numbers show.

Like the rest of the country, the number of attacks and casualties in Mosul declined towards the end of 2008 reaching a low in January 2009 as the provincial elections neared. In 2005 the Sunnis boycotted the vote, allowing the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan to take power in Ninewa. The Sunni Arab majority in the province was eager to reverse this turn of events in 2009, and the insurgents seemed to have accommodated them. Since then the number of casualties has been creeping back up in Mosul as the balloting did not end the Arab-Kurdish divide, the major source of violence in the city, but actually seemed to increase it with the election of the al-Hadbaa party to power and the subsequent boycotting of the provincial council by the two major Kurdish parties.

Attack Statistics In Mosul Based Upon Press Reports

May 2009
83 Attacks/Incidents – 3.06 attacks & incidents/day
64 Deaths – 2.06 deaths/day
164 Wounded – 4.70 wounded/day

April 2009
79 Attacks/Incidents – 2.63 attacks & incidents/day
53 Deaths – 1.76 deaths/day
191 Wounded – 6.36 wounded/day

March 2009
86 attacks/incidents – 2.77 attacks & incidents/day
69 deaths – 2.22 deaths/day
169 wounded – 5.45 wounded/day

February 2009
81 attacks/incidents – 2.89 attacks & incidents/day
58 deaths – 2.0 deaths/day
111 wounded – 3.96 wounded/day

January 2009
52 attacks/incidents – 1.67 attacks & incidents/day
56 deaths – 1.80 killed/day
85 wounded – 2.74 wounded/day

December 2008
65 attacks/incidents – 2.09 attacks & incidents/day
68 deaths – 2.19 deaths/day
181 wounded – 5.83 wounded/day

November 2008
65 attacks/incidents – 2.16 attacks & incidents/day
53 deaths – 1.76 deaths/day
249 wounded – 8.3 wounded/day

October 2008
92 attacks/incidents – 2.96 attacks & incidents/day
112 deaths – 3.61 deaths/day
188 wounded – 6.06 wounded/day

SOURCES

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