U.S. Military And Intelligence Counts Of Iraqi Deaths

For the longest time, the United States claimed that it was not keeping track of deaths in Iraq. Eventually during the Surge in 2007, the military began releasing charts on casualties, but they lacked specifics. In October 2010 the Associated Press (AP) found that the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) had posted figures on Iraqi deaths. Later, Wikileaks released thousands of American intelligence reports that mentioned fatalities. These are just the latest figures on the human costs of the Iraq war, and should be compared to the other organizations that have tracked deaths.

The Associated Press discovered that CENTCOM put up numbers of Iraqi deaths on its website in July 2010 with little fanfare. The military claimed that 76,939 Iraqis had been killed from January 2004 to August 2008. That broke down to 63,185 civilians and 13,754 members of the security forces. Another 121,649 people were wounded during that period. There was no explanation of how the figures were arrived at, but AP speculated that they were based upon the charts that the Defense Department began releasing during the Surge in 2007.

In October, Wikileaks publicized thousands of U.S. daily intelligence documents from Iraq. The Guardian’s Data Blog culled through the papers and put together a chart on monthly casualties from January 2004 to December 2009. The Guardian found 83,300 Iraqi deaths for those six years and 176,382 wounded. Another 23,984 enemy combatants were also killed. For the time period covered in the CENTCOM posting, the Guardian noted 74,830 deaths, 2,109 less than the military’s.

Comparing Iraqi Death Counts (2004-2009)

Other organizations that track Iraqi deaths found much higher numbers initially, but then were in general alignment with the intelligence reports. In 2004 for example, the intelligence papers had 3,812 deaths. That compared to 16,894 by the Brookings Institute, and 10,834 by the Iraq Body Count. In 2005, the U.S. counted 8,993 deaths, which was close to icasualties’ 8,225. Icasualties only relies upon Western sources however, and notes that it misses many fatalities. In comparison, Iraq Body Count had 15,031 deaths and Brookings had 20,163. From 2006-2009 though, the numbers were roughly the same. For instance, in 2009 Brookings had 3,000 deaths, Iraq Body Count 4,681, the U.S. military 2,891, and icasualties 3,119. In total, from highest to lowest, the Brookings Institute had 100,481, Iraq Body Count 92,318, U.S. intelligence 83,300, and icasualties had 54,866 fatalities from 2004-2009. A simple explanation for the differences early on between the U.S. and private organizations, and then their later congruence could be that the Americans were not systematically keeping track of deaths from 2004-2005, but then made it a priority afterward.

	Brookings Institute	Iraq Body Count	U.S. Intelligence Reports	Icasualties
2004	16,894	10,834	3,812	N/A
2005	20,163	15,031	8,933	8,225
2006	30,514	27,850	31,253	18,655
2007	23,550	24,677	28,041	18,938
2008	6,360	9,245	8,310	5,929
2009	3,000	4,681	2,891	3,119
Grand Totals	100,481	92,318	83,300	54,866

The Iraq War has had a devastating affect upon the country. Fortunately, the sectarian civil war ended, and although bombings and assassinations are still a daily occurrence, they are nowhere near what they were before. The numbers from CENTCOM and Wikileaks provide important new details about the cost of the conflict. They should be analyzed and compared to the other sources available to provide a fuller account of just how many people have died in this tragedy.

SOURCES

Fadel, Leila, “77,000 Iraqis killed from 2004 to August 2008, U.S. military says,” Washington Post, 10/14/10

Icasualties

Iraq Body Count

Jakes, Lara, “US military says 77,000 Iraqis killed over 5 years,” 10/14/10

O’Hanlon, Michael, Campbell, Jason, “Iraq Index,” Brookings Institution, 11/30/10

Rogers, Simon, “Wikileaks Iraq: data journalism maps every death,” Data Blog, Guardian, 10/23/10