Headlines said that September 2012 was the deadliest month
in Iraq for two years. That’s only because Baghdad has been artificially it
seems keeping down its death tolls since the end of 2010. Other organizations
like Iraq Body Count had September’s casualties being lower than the previous
three months, while averaging the statistics found that September was much like
July. That goes to show that when the official mortality numbers are released
each month for Iraq, they need to be placed in context and analyzed closely.
Despite Iraq’s ministries’ claims, September 2012 was
actually not much different from the rest of the summer, which has seen an
uptick in attacks due to the on-going offensive by the insurgency. The Defense,
Interior, and Health Ministries claimed there were 365 deaths in September. That was a large jump from the 164 reported in August, but close to July’s 325.
Last month was the highest official casualty figure since July 2010 when
Baghdad claimed 534 casualties. September was also one of the rare occasions
when the government’s numbers were higher than Iraq Body Count. It had 356 deaths for the month. That was actually down from August’s 393, July’s 414,
and June’s 495. Placing the statistics in context showed that the Iraqi government
actually reported believable numbers for September. That month and July were
the only two for 2012 that were comparable with Iraq Body Count, which has
consistently been the most reliable source for deaths in Iraq since the U.S.
invasion in 2003. Otherwise, Baghdad has consistently been keeping its monthly
counts below 200. The government is likely doing that on purpose to portray the
country as being more secure now that the American
military has withdrawn. That trend is highlighted when looking at the
ministries’ numbers for 2011 when only five months had less than 200 deaths.
Deaths In Iraq 2010-2012
|
Month
|
Iraq Body Count
|
Iraqi Ministries
|
Avg. Monthly Deaths
|
Avg. Daily Deaths
|
|
Jan. 2010
|
260
|
196
|
228
|
7.3
|
|
Feb.
|
301
|
236
|
268
|
9.5
|
|
Mar.
|
335
|
183
|
259
|
8.3
|
|
Apr.
|
381
|
259
|
320
|
10.6
|
|
May
|
377
|
279
|
328
|
10.5
|
|
Jun.
|
377
|
176
|
276
|
9.2
|
|
Jul.
|
424
|
534
|
269
|
8.6
|
|
Aug.
|
516
|
363
|
439
|
14.1
|
|
Sep.
|
252
|
174
|
213
|
7.1
|
|
Oct.
|
311
|
185
|
248
|
8.0
|
|
Nov.
|
302
|
174
|
238
|
7.9
|
|
Dec.
|
217
|
128
|
172
|
5.5
|
|
2010 Mo. Avg.
|
337
|
240
|
271
|
8.8
|
|
Jan. 2011
|
387
|
259
|
323
|
10.4
|
|
Feb.
|
250
|
167
|
208
|
7.4
|
|
Mar.
|
307
|
247
|
277
|
8.9
|
|
Apr.
|
285
|
211
|
246
|
8.2
|
|
May
|
378
|
177
|
277
|
8.9
|
|
Jun.
|
385
|
271
|
328
|
10.9
|
|
Jul.
|
305
|
259
|
282
|
9.0
|
|
Aug.
|
398
|
239
|
318
|
10.2
|
|
Sep.
|
394
|
185
|
289
|
9.6
|
|
Oct.
|
355
|
258
|
306
|
9.8
|
|
Nov.
|
272
|
187
|
229
|
7.6
|
|
Dec.
|
386
|
155
|
270
|
8.7
|
|
2011 Mo. Avg.
|
341
|
217
|
279
|
9.1
|
|
Jan. 2012
|
492
|
151
|
321
|
10.3
|
|
Feb.
|
316
|
150
|
233
|
8.3
|
|
Mar.
|
340
|
112
|
226
|
7.2
|
|
Apr.
|
315
|
126
|
220
|
7.3
|
|
May
|
229
|
132
|
180
|
5.8
|
|
Jun.
|
495
|
131
|
313
|
10.4
|
|
Jul.
|
414
|
325
|
369
|
11.9
|
|
Aug.
|
393
|
164
|
278
|
8.9
|
|
Sep.
|
356
|
365
|
360
|
12.0
|
|
2012 Mo. Avg.
|
372
|
184
|
277
|
9.1
|
The average of the government and Iraq Body Count’s figures
showed the on-going summer offensive by the insurgency. In September, there
were an average of 360 deaths, and 12.0 per day. That was up from 278 in
August, and 8.9 casualties per day, but comparable to July, which had 369
deaths and 11.9 a day. June was the beginning of the offensive with an average
of 313 deaths and 10.4 per day, a large jump from May’s 180 and 5.8 per day.
Last year the summer campaign only lasted until October. Hopefully that means
militants have a month more left in them before they ramp down their
activities. Overall, Iraq’s insurgents have been carrying out around the same number of attacks since the second half of 2011. What has changed is that
those acts have grown deadlier with a higher average number of casualties per
attack since the 3rd quarter of 2011. Again, this shows the nuances
of violence in Iraq.
Iraq is a country full of contradictions. It is a place with
a huge number of terrorist acts, but most of those happen in a few select
cities. During certain months violence ramps up, and then taps down. On top of
that, it has a government that apparently is trying to cover up the levels of
instability that still remain. That’s part of the complicated tapestry that
makes up Iraq’s current security situation. It’s these differences that need to
be noted every time the monthly death tolls are released, because the raw
numbers alone only provide a small picture of what’s going on.
SOURCES
Iraq Body Count
Reuters, “Iraq’s monthly death toll doubles, bloodiest for
two years,” 10/1/12
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