For the last year Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, his deputy
Hussein Shahristani who is in charge of energy policy, and the Electricity
Ministry have promised that Iraq would solve its chronic power shortages by the
end of 2013. This was met with plenty of criticism, and by the middle of the
year even Maliki and Shahristani were saying that the Ministry could not be
believed. Then in October it stated that the country was receiving
uninterrupted power, and that the national grid had finally met demand. Power
usage is down in Iraq as the summer is over, but the long-term outlook for the
country being able to meet its growing electricity needs is still dim.
The Electricity Ministry has been saying for years that a
solution to the country’s power problems is just around the corner. On October
11, 2013, the Ministry issued a statement saying that Iraq was receiving 24 hours of uninterrupted power. It went on to say that security had become a
problem when a series of power pylons were blown up on October 3. In a way it
was giving itself an escape if electricity were ever to go out again, because
it could point the finger at the insurgency instead of its own failings, which
usually get blamed by the public. Since the 1991 Gulf War when the U.S. led
Coalition destroyed the country’s national grid Iraq has had power shortages. Under Saddam, the provinces were starved of electricity so that Baghdad
could maintain year round energy. Then when the U.S. invaded, the Coalition
Provisional Authority claimed that it would restore the nation to its prewar electricity levels within just a few months. That was the beginning of a
series of unfulfilled promises that would continue for the next ten years. In
more recent times Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki told the press in February
2011 that there would be no more power shortages by May 2012. Then a year
later, Electricity Minister Abdul Karim Aftan stated that most issues with the
power grid would be resolved by early 2014. Having failed to produce,
Maliki and Aftan both revised their earlier claims in January 2013 to
saying that the power situation would be fixed by the end of the year. They
repeated that promise over and over to never ending criticism and ridicule
since both the Americans and Iraqis had failed to meet the country’s growing
demand for electricity in the past. It’s within that context that made most
skeptical of the recent story that 24 hours of power was no available.
Power plants like this one opened in 2008 in Muthanna have
not been able to keep up with the unchecked demand (U.S. Army)
Iraq faces a multi-dimensional dilemma with its electricity
network. First, the amount of power that the country has needed has constantly
increased since 2003. In 2002 peak demand was at 6,049 megawatts per day. That was up to 8,120 megawatts by 2007. Average demand reached 9,708
megawatts by 2008, and now it is about 14,700 megawatts. That was due to
the ending of sanctions and the increase in buying power by average Iraqis who
bought up consumer goods like air conditioners, televisions, refrigerators,
etc., which increased demand. Second, there is no check on power usage as there
are high subsidies and many people do not pay their bills. The government
had plans to increase charges and go after illegal taps into the public power
network, but backed off when protests emerged in Iraq over services in recent
years. Third, since the fall of Saddam Hussein the capacity of the national
grid has gone up, but it has not grown as fast as demand leading to constant
blackouts and the widespread use of private generators to meet the shortfall in
public supply. Fourth, the Electricity Ministry lacks the capacity to handle large projects such as repairing and expanding the power network and building
power plants. Examples of that abound. In 2008 the Ministry bought 72
combustion turbines from G.E. and Siemens. None of those were taken out of
storage until 2011, and the first one wasn’t successfully installed until April
2013. Those turbines and others are supposed to run on natural gas, but Iraq
does not have the infrastructure to do that yet so they are fueled by oil,
which reduces output and degrades the equipment faster. In addition, the
Electricity Ministry inspector general issued a report at the end of the summer
finding that $2 billion was wasted on contracts with foreign companies to
repair and expand the national network. Fifth, Iraq’s ministries are controlled
by different political parties that run them like personal fiefs. As a result,
they do not cooperate with each other. The Oil Ministry for instance, is
supposed to provide fuel for the country’s power plants, but the Electricity
Ministry constantly complains that supply is not adequate. Instead of honing up
to these short comings Baghdad just makes more empty promises. In June 2013,
the Electricity Ministry celebrated the fact that its capacity had reached
10,000 megawatts. 20% of that was unavailable because of the lack of fuel,
lower water levels at hydroelectric plants, and maintenance shut downs. The
inefficient power network also meant that another 25% of supply was lost before
it reached consumers. Together that meant the actual amount of electricity
available was only 5,500 megawatts. At times the government has admitted that
the Electricity Ministry should not be believed. In September 2012, Deputy
Premier Shahristani told the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction
that the Ministry’s numbers were theoretical and that its predictions should
not be listened to. Then in July 2013 Maliki attacked Shahristani and Electricity
Minister Aftan for not providing realistic figures on power supply, and that
there were problems with the contracting for new power plants. That same
month an adviser to the premier said that the power problems would not be fixed until 2015. Even after that the Ministry still claimed all the issues
would be resolved by the end of the year, and now says it has accomplished
its goals. Given that history there’s no reason to believe that the Ministry
has met demand or will do so any time soon. Until there is a check upon usage,
the government learns to cooperate, and the Electricity Ministry has trained
and experienced staff, and ends all its corruption there’s no chance of the
power outages ending. Unfortunately that’s not going to happen. Baghdad does
not want to add increased hardships upon the public like increased bills, while
the lists that run the ministries are more interested in their own concerns
than the nation’s, which means continued mismanagement. The Iraqi government is
simply not structured to resolve these large scale problems.
In the coming months the Electricity Ministry is likely to
issue more statements about its steady progress. Power production is increasing
and more plants are coming on line. The problem is that there is massive waste
involved in many of those projects. Once they are completed they can’t operate
at capacity, electricity gets lost before it reaches consumers, and most
importantly there is no cap on usage. The supply and demand issue might be
alleviated a bit now because the summer is over and temperatures have dropped,
but once the heat returns so will the power outages. There’s also nothing being
done about solving the structural problems with the government that would make
it more efficient to provide services. In Iraq the government earns the vast
amount of money through the oil industry and therefore does not feel accountable
to the public. Until the country’s leadership feels like they have to answer to
the people problems like the power network will continue to fester.
SOURCES
Abdullah, Ali, “Minister of
Electricity and again: the end of the current year will be the end of the
darkness in Iraq,” Buratha News, 7/6/13
AIN, “Minister of Electricity expects power improvement next
summer,” 2/2/12
Aswat al-Iraq, “Iraq achieves electricity self-sufficiency
end of 2013,” 1/20/13
Collier, Robert, “Power Struggle / Baghdad fumes over off-on
electricity – a critical economic, political problem” San Francisco Chronicle,
6/30/04
Hassoun, Nasir, “$28 Billion Allegedly Squandered on
Electricity Projects in Iraq,” Al-Hayat, 8/2/12
Ketz,
Sammy, “Iraq power generation finally hits pre-invasion levels,” Agence France
Presse, 8/25/08
Al-Kubaisi, Israa, “Iraqis enjoy
uninterrupted power supplies for first time in 20 years,” Azzaman, 10/11/13
Al-Mada, “Electricity Ministry
achieves the highest energy production from 15 to 24 hours a day,” 6/13/13
Al-Qaisi, Israa, “Electricity
Ministry vows end to outages in two months,” Azzaman, 10/1/13
Shafaq News, “Breaking News…
Shahristani’s office talks about the latter’s resignation,” 7/24/13
Special Inspector General for Iraq
Reconstruction, “Final Report to the United States Congress,” 9/9/13
- Hard Lessons, 1/22/09
- “Quarterly Report and Semiannual Report to the United
States Government,” 7/30/07
- “Quarterly report to the United States Congress,” 10/30/12
Stone, Andrea, “In Baghdad, power supply may worsen,” USA
Today, 4/27/08
Ur News, “Maliki received a report
confirming tomorrow wasting two billion dollars on electricity,” 8/3/13
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