January 2014 was another turning point in Iraq’s security
situation. The events in Anbar marked the return of the non-Islamic State of
Iraq and Levant (ISIS) insurgency. ISIS already successfully rebuilt itself in
2013, proving capable of carrying out attacks throughout the country from the
north to the south. Now many militant groups that have largely been dormant since
the civil war years have announced their return. The result is that Iraq today
is much like Iraq in 2004-2005 when the insurgency was just taking off for the
first time.
All the organizations that track deaths in Iraq had high numbers
for January. The United Nations came in with the lowest figure with 733
killed, but that was because it did not include Anbar because of the
difficulty of confirming deaths there. Agence France Presse had 991, the
highest amount since it started tracking fatalities in 2012. Iraq’s ministries
reported 1,013 and
Iraq Body Count (IBC) had 1,062. For
three of those four groups that averaged out to over 30 deaths per day. That
compared to the beginning of 2013 when all four were averaging anywhere from
5-11 killed per day. Today's high level of violence was exemplified by the number
of days last month that had at least 30 killed. According to IBC there were 19
of those topped off by January 15 with 94 deaths. That was the highest number of those
types of days in the last 13 months.
Deaths In Iraq 2003-2013
Month/Year
|
Iraq Body
Count
|
Avg.
Daily Deaths
|
Iraqi
Ministries
|
Avg.
Daily Deaths
|
United
Nations
|
Avg.
Daily Deaths
|
Agence
France Presse
|
Avg.
Daily Deaths
|
2003
|
4,675
|
19.0
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2004
|
11,608
|
31.8l
|
11,313
|
30.99
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2005
|
16,186
|
44.2
|
15,817
|
43.3
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2006
|
29,144
|
79.8
|
32,622
|
89.3
|
34,452
|
94.3
|
-
|
-
|
2007
|
25,519
|
69.9
|
19,155
|
52.4
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2008
|
9,839
|
26.9
|
9,046
|
24.7
|
11,536
|
31.6
|
-
|
-
|
2009
|
5,132
|
14.0
|
3,682
|
10.0
|
4,611
|
12.6
|
-
|
-
|
2010
|
4,109
|
11.2
|
3,949
|
10.8
|
4,855
|
13.3
|
-
|
-
|
2011
|
4,147
|
11.3
|
2,781
|
7.6
|
4,150
|
11.3
|
-
|
-
|
2012
|
4,573
|
12.5
|
2,174
|
5.9
|
3,878
|
10.6
|
1,531
(7 mo.)
|
7.1
|
Jan. 2013
|
357
|
11.5
|
177
|
5.7
|
319
|
10.2
|
246
|
7.9
|
Feb.
|
360
|
12.7
|
136
|
4.8
|
418
|
14.9
|
220
|
7.8
|
Mar.
|
403
|
13.0
|
163
|
5.2
|
456
|
14.7
|
271
|
8.7
|
Apr.
|
545
|
18.1
|
208
|
6.9
|
712
|
23.7
|
461
|
15.3
|
May
|
888
|
28.6
|
681
|
21.9
|
1,045
|
33.7
|
614
|
19.8
|
Jun.
|
659
|
21.9
|
240
|
8.0
|
761
|
25.3
|
452
|
15.0
|
Jul.
|
1,145
|
36.9
|
989
|
31.9
|
1,057
|
34.0
|
875
|
28.2
|
Aug.
|
916
|
29.5
|
365
|
11.7
|
804
|
25.9
|
693
|
22.3
|
Sep.
|
1,221
|
40.7
|
971
|
32.3
|
979
|
32.6
|
880
|
29.3
|
Oct.
|
1,095
|
35.3
|
964
|
31.0
|
979
|
31.5
|
743
|
23.9
|
Nov.
|
903
|
30.1
|
948/1,121
|
31.6/
37.3
|
659
|
21.9
|
693
|
23.1
|
Dec.
|
983
|
31.7
|
1,001
|
32.2
|
759
|
24.4
|
668
|
21.5
|
2013 Totals
|
9.475
|
25.9
|
6,843/
7,016
|
18.7/
19.2
|
8,948
|
24.5
|
6,818
|
18.6
|
Jan. 2014
|
1, 062
|
34.2
|
1,013
|
32.6
|
733
|
23.6
|
991
|
31.9
|
Days With 30 Or More Fatalities Per
Month, Iraq Body Count
January 2013 – 5 Total
1/3/13 – 34
killed
1/16/13 –
46 killed
1/17/13 –
31 killed
1/22/13 –
34 killed
1/23/13 –
46 killed
February 2013 – 3 Total
2/3/13 – 40
killed
2/8/13 – 38
killed
2/17/13 –
59 killed
March 2013 – 3 Total
3/14/13 –
34 killed
3/19/13 –
73 killed
3/29/13 –
30 killed
April 2013 – 7 Total
4/1/13 – 55
killed
4/6/13 – 34
killed
4/15/13 –
62 killed
4/18/13 –
30 killed
4/23/13 –
71 killed
4/24/13 –
32 killed
4/29/13 –
34 killed
May 2013 – 10 Total
5/1/13 – 31
killed
5/15/13 –
40 killed
5/17/13 –
93 killed
5/18/13 –
33 killed
5/20/13 –
134 killed
5/21/13 –
46 killed
5/27/13 –
81 killed
5/28/13 –
45 killed
5/29/13 –
35 killed
5/30/13 –
34 killed
June 2013 – 7 Total
6/10/13 61
killed
6/16/13 49
killed
6/18/13 39
killed
6/23/13 36
killed
6/24/13 46
killed
6/25/13 45
killed
6/27/13 34
killed
July 2013 – 14 Total
7/1/13 43
killed
7/2/13 59
killed
7/11/13 59
killed
7/12/13 49
killed
7/13/13 37
killed
7/14/13 66
killed
7/19/13 36
killed
7/20/13 80
killed
7/21/13 41
killed
7/23/13 38 killed
7/24/13 37
killed
7/25/13 48
killed
7/29/13 60
killed
7/30/13 50
killed
August
2013 – 11 Total
8/6/13 – 50 killed
8/7/13 – 34 killed
8/10/13 – 94 killed
8/12/13 – 37 killed
8/15/13 – 42 killed
8/20/13 – 34 killed
8/23/13 – 46 killed
8/25/13 – 55 killed
8/28/13 – 98 killed
8/29/13 – 41 killed
8/31/13 – 30 killed
September
2013 – 18 Total
9/1/13
73 killed
9/2/13
33 killed
9/3/13
87 killed
9/10/13
34 killed
9/11/13
57 killed
9/13/13
50 killed
9/14/13
54 killed
9/16/13
67 killed
9/17/13
50 killed
9/19/13
33 killed
9/20/13
33 killed
9/21/13
116 killed
9/22/13
39 killed
9/23/13
46 killed
9/25/13
47 killed
9/26/13
49 killed
9/29/13
85 killed
9/30/13
62 killed
October 2013 – 14 Total
10/5/13
100 killed
10/6/13
46 killed
10/7/13
59 killed
10/10/13
30 killed
10/12/13
41 killed
10/13/13
68 killed
10/17/13
69 killed
10/20/13
80 killed
10/23/13
74 killed
10/25/13
33 killed
10/26/13
30 killed
10/27/13
74 killed
10/30/13
39 killed
10/31/13
39 killed
November 2013 – 13 Total
11/4/13
– 50 killed
11/7/13
– 33 killed
11/13/13
– 39 killed
11/14/13
– 54 killed
11/17/13
– 48 killed
11/20/13
– 82 killed
11/21/13
– 58 killed
11/23/13
– 48 killed
11/25/13
– 38 killed
11/27/13
– 75 killed
11/28/13
– 38 killed
11/29/13
– 55 killed
11/30/13
– 30 killed
December 2013 – 13 Total
12/1/13
– 44 killed
12/3/13
– 76 killed
12/8/13
– 58 killed
12/9/13
– 30 killed
12/10/13
– 30 killed
12/13/13
– 49 killed
12/14/13
– 29 killed
12/16/13
– 82 killed
12/19/13
– 65 killed
12/20/13
– 33 killed
12/25/13
– 56 killed
12/26/13
– 31 killed
12/30/13
– 31 killed
January 2014 – 19 Total
1/2/14 62 killed
1/3/14 45 killed
1/5/14 58 killed
1/7/14 50 killed
1/8/14 34 killed
1/9/14 51 killed
1/12/14 45 killed
1/13/14 38 killed
1/14/14 52 killed
1/15/14 94 killed
1/16/14 36 killed
1/18/14 38 killed
1/19/14 31 killed
1/20/14 47 killed
1/23/14 30 killed
1/25/14 45 killed
1/26/14 45 killed
1/27/14 32 killed
1/29/14 39 killed
Iraq is likely to see high levels of violence for the
foreseeable future. With ISIS and the Baathist Naqshibandi now joined by others
such as the Islamic Army, Hamas Iraq, the 1920 Revolution Brigades, the
Mujahadeen Army, and Ansar al-Sunna the number of casualties each month is
likely to remain at around 1,000 or more from now on. This harkens back to the
2004-2005 period when the insurgency was first taking off. Then the Americans
alienated the Sunnis and they in turn took up arms to protest the new status
quo. Now the insurgency is building upon the sense
of victimization that has become part of the Sunni’s
sectarian identity and the mistakes of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. It took several
years for the U.S. to realize what it was doing wrong and change its policies.
It is unknown whether the Iraqi government has the same capability given its
divided nature, and short-term thinking. That could lead to years more of
bloody conflict.
SOURCES
Agence France Presse, “Iraq casualties from violence (2014)”
Al Hayat, “Anbar: Conflict mosque and the clan … And the
development of the mysterious “Daash,”” 1/10/14
Iraq Body Count
Al Masalah, “More than a thousand
people were killed in Iraq in January, including 795 civilians,” 1/31/14
Yacoub, Sameer, “UN says more than
733 Iraqis killed in January,” Associated Press, 2/1/14
No comments:
Post a Comment