Decline In Violence In Iraq Continues Into First Week of Dec 2014

The situation in Iraq continued to stabilize in the beginning of December 2014. The number of reported security incidents and deaths remained about the same as the last full week of November, while the number of injured saw a large drop. The Islamic State (IS) also did not launch a car bomb wave from December 1-7, the first time that had not happened for months. Outside of Anbar the insurgency remained largely on the defensive, which explains why security has improved so much over the past few weeks.

The number of weekly attacks in Iraq has stayed the same since the start of November. From November 8-14 there were 128 incidents, followed by 134 from November 15-21, 138 from November 22-28, and then 137 from December 1-7. That averaged out to 19.1 incidents per day. In comparison, the four full weeks before that there were 23.4 attacks per day. As fighting has leveled off Baghdad has re-emerged as the most dangerous province with 44 attacks for the week. 41 in Salahaddin, 19 in Anbar, 13 in Ninewa, eight in Diyala, six in Kirkuk, and five in Babil followed that.

Casualties have finally started to drop as well. From August to early November the number of attacks began to fall, but the number of dead and wounded remained quite high. Over the last few weeks that trend finally ended. In the first week of December there were 323 deaths and 476 injured. The latter consisted of 41 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), six peshmerga, one sahwa, and 275 civilians, and the former was made up of 27 ISF and 449 civilians. That compared to 601 dead and 828 wounded November 1-7, 420 killed and 593 wounded November 8-14, 283 fatalities and 464 injured November 15-21, and 321 dead and 640 wounded November 22-28. For the week, Baghdad was the deadliest governorate with 97 killed, followed by 95 in Salahaddin, 84 in Anbar, 18 in Kirkuk, 15 in Ninewa, eight in Diyala, and six in Babil.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2014

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	244	363	733
Jan 8-14	272	364	676
Jan 15-21	205	358	616
Jan 22-28	236	305	618
Jan 29-31	57	93	237
JAN	1,014	1,483	2,890
Feb 1-7	211	306	706
Feb 8-14	229	258	505
Feb 15-21	264	347	703
Feb 22-28	251	374	617
FEB	955	1,285	2,531
Mar 1-7	252	412	702
Mar 8-14	205	323	610
Mar 15-21	216	423	736
Mar 22-27	211	279	580
Mar 28-31	108	169	261
MAR	992	1,606	2,889
Apr 1-7	238	259	550
Apr 8-14	224	362	646
Apr 15-21	241	406	805
Apr 22-28	226	347	744
Apr 29-30	61	82	179
APR	990	1,456	2,924
May 1-7	198	246	483
May 8-14	257	466	752
May 15-21	183	256	426
May 22-28	203	403	810
May 29-31	64	91	131
MAY	905	1,462	2,602
Jun 1-7	228	612	1,020
Jun 8-14	234	1,889	890
Jun 15-21	179	803	759
Jun 22-28	203	733	777
Jun 29-30	59	127	236
JUN	901	4,172	3,701
Jul 1-7	203	526	651
Jul 8-14	214	577	628
Jul 15-21	230	444	1,009
Jul 22-28	224	589	801
Jul 29-31	66	163	230
JUL	937	2,299	3,319
Aug 1-8	269	1,122	885
Aug 9-14	179	710	1,152
Aug 15-21	150	354	499
Aug 22-28	156	523	798
Aug 29-31	59	125	289
AUG	813	2,834	3,623
Sep 1-7	168	616	751
Sep 8-14	156	433	722
Sep 15-21	166	620	749
Sep 22-28	153	395	573
Sep 29-30	47	112	252
SEP	690	2,176	3,047
Oct 1-7	170	451	687
Oct 8-14	188	532	875
Oct 15-21	156	449	770
Oct 22-28	159	345	592 + 1,230
Oct 29-31	68	570	227
OCT	741	2,347	3,151 + 1,230
Nov 1-7	153	601	828
Nov 8-14	128	420	593
Nov 15-21	134	283	464
Nov 22-28	138	321	640
Nov 29-30	40	62	123
NOV	593	1,687	2,648
Dec 1-7	137	323	476
2014	9,668	23,130	35,031

Violence In Iraq By Province Dec 2014

Province	Violence
Anbar	19 Incidents 84 Killed: 16 ISF, 68 Civilians 58 Wounded: 6 ISF, 52 Civilians 11 Shootings 1 IED
Babil	5 Incidents 6 Killed: 2 ISF, 4 Civilians 20 Wounded: 4 ISF, 16 Civilians 4 IEDs 1 Car Bomb
Baghdad	44 Incidents 97 Killed: 97 Civilians 262 Wounded: 7 ISF, 255 Civilians 11 Shootings 25 IEDs 5 Sticky Bombs 2 Car Bombs
Basra	1 Incident 2 Stun Bombs
Diyala	8 Incidents 8 Killed: 2 Peshmerga, 6 Civilians 10 Wounded: 6 ISF, 4 Civilians 6 Shootings 2 IEDs
Kirkuk	6 Incidents 18 Killed: 18 Civilians 22 Wounded: 22 Civilians 1 Shooting 1 Suicide Car Bomb
Ninewa	13 Incidents 15 Killed: 1 ISF, 4 Peshmerga, 10 Civilians 6 Shootings 6 IEDs
Salahaddin	41 Incidents 95 Killed: 22 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 72 Civilians 104 Wounded: 4 ISF, 100 Civilians 24 Shootings 31 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Suicide Car Bomb

Car Bomb Attacks In Iraq Dec 2014

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Dec 1
Dec 2	Mahmudiya, Babil		1
Dec 3
Dec 4	Shaab & Sadr City, Baghdad Shorja, Kirkuk	39	97
Dec 5
Dec 6
Dec 7	Salman, Salahaddin	9	17
1st Wk Totals	5	48	115

One major reason why casualties were down was the fact that the Islamic State (IS) did not launch a car bomb wave. There were five car bombs during the week in Babil, Baghdad Kirkuk, and Salahaddin costing the lives of 48 people and wounding another 115. Three of those bombings all came on one day December 4. The last time there was not a week in Iraq without a car bomb wave was April 1-7 and April 8-14, 2014. The number of these types of attacks has been going down recently. The cause is not known as IS has plenty of explosives from the stocks it seized during the summer from the Iraqi government, but it is another sign that the militants are re-grouping right now.

Anbar remained one of the two major battlefields in Iraq. The insurgents continued their assault upon central and western Anbar. On December 1 militants attacked the Walid checkpoint near the Syrian border killing 16 soldiers and wounding four police. That same day there was fighting in Abu Risha, Ramadi, and along the Salahaddin border in the northeast. The next day armed groups launched a three-pronged attack upon Ramadi from the south, west and north that was repulsed. The ISF and tribes on the other hand continued to clear rural areas freeing several villages around Albu Nimr in the center of the province. December 3 there were assaults upon Kubaisa, along the Salahaddin border, and Amiriya Fallujah. IS has been trying to take Amiriya Fallujah off and on for several months now. December 4 and 6 there was more fighting in Ramadi. On that last day another 16 members of the Albu Nimr tribe were executed by IS north of Hit. The government continued to be a major cause of casualties as well. Of the 84 killed during the week, around one third, 38 were due to government shelling and an air strike on Fallujah and Saqlawiya. Even more striking of the 58 wounded, 89%, 52 were the result of the ISF. The indiscriminate shelling of civilian targets has been going on since the start of the year and has been widely condemned, but despite two announcements by Prime Minister Haider Abadi saying that it wound it has not. They serve no military purpose, and are only causing innocent lives.

Casualties from Government Shelling/Air Strikes In Anbar Dec 2014

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Dec. 1	Fallujah	4	11
Dec. 2	Fallujah	7	13
Dec. 3	Fallujah	1	13
	Saqlawiya	10	4
Dec. 4	Fallujah	15	11
Totals	5	37	52

In Babil, the Islamic State has still not recovered from its loss of its long time base in Jurf al-Sakhr in the northeast section of the province. There were only five attacks in Babil during the week. Three of those were IEDs in Iskandiriya, Yusifiya, and Mahmudiya showing that the organization continues to re-group in the north. In total six people perished and 20 were wounded from December 1-7. In comparison in June there were an average of 1.9 people killed per day and 10.5 wounded showing a dramatic drop off in IS activity there.

The religious ceremony of Arbaeen began in December to Karbala. Attacks on the Shiite pilgrims were very few making the security plan for them a success for the week. From December 1-7 there were only two assaults upon them. The first was on December 6 in Husseiniya, Baghdad when an IED went off on a procession killing four and wounding 12, and then the next day another IED detonated in Dora with two fatalities and 10 injured. The ISF are deployed in force during these periods covering all the major thoroughfares for the thousands of people making the trip to Karbala making it hard for the insurgents to strike at them although attempts continue.

Violence in Diyala remained quite low. There were just eight incidents during the week. IS is said to control several villages in the Sensl area in the north of the province. On December 1 the police carried out an operation there. December 3 a mass grave left by IS with five bodies in it was discovered as well. As the pro-government forces re-take more territory more of these sites will be found. Finally, it was reported that the peshmerga would be included in the security of Sadiya, Jalawla and Qara Tapa in the northeast. The Kurds along with the ISF and militias cleared these areas in November, and immediately afterward there were arguments and clashes over who would control them the peshmerga or militias. The latter claims these places as part of the disputed territories that were taken under Saddam. The militias want these under central government control. For now that issue appears to be resolved.

The Islamic State still controls much of central Ninewa. There they continue with executions, retaliatory attacks, kidnappings, and arrests. December 1, four houses of the Jabour tribe were destroyed by IEDs in the Qayara area south of Mosul. December 3 three musicians were executed in Mosul, and one policeman in Qayara. December 5 six people in Zuhour were arrested, and three sheikhs killed in the Mosul area. December 6 10 soldiers and police were kidnapped south of Mosul. Finally, on December 7 a sheikh’s house was blown up by an IED in Qayara, while three former candidates were kidnapped in Sinjar. In Qayara the elite Golden Division and the peshmerga were said to clear five villages as well. Despite some setbacks to the north Ninewa remains a militant stronghold.

Salahaddin is the other main province in contention. On December 1 Interior Minister Mohammed Ghaban oversaw an operation to clear Balad and Dhuluiya along with the road from Samarra to Baghdad. In the north, the army, peshmerga and militias freed three villages in Shirqat that same day, and then another five on December 4 with the aid of Coalition air strikes. IS was also on the attack trying to make up for its recent losses in the governorate when it took Mutasim on December 7. Insurgents continue to carry out attacks throughout Salahaddin as well with fighting in Dujail, Ishaqi, Baiji, Samarra, and Shirqat. The ISF and militias are planning more major operations in the province after their victories in Amerli, Tuz Kharmato and Baiji. The militants are not going down without a fight however and despite their setbacks still have lots of operational freedom in the governorate.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, "Civilian injured in detonation of a car bomb under control south of Baghdad," 12/2/14

- "Local Source: Daash kidnaps three former candidates northern Mosul," 12/7/14

- "Raise the bodies of civilians who were executed by Daash from a mass grave northeast of Baquba," 12/3/14

Associated Press, "2 car bomb attacks kill 21 people in Iraq," 12/4/14

Faqie, Nuwar, "Islamic State Executes Three Arab Tribal Leaders," Bas News, 12/6/14

Al Forat, "ISIL detonates house of leader in volunteers forces," 12/7/14

IANS, "33 killed in clashes and bombings in Iraq," 12/6/14

Iraq Times, "12 martyrs and wounded in the south of Baghdad, Hosseini parade," 12/7/14

- "16 martyrs and injured in the bombing of Baghdad," 12/6/14

- "26 martyrs and injured in the bombing of Tarmiya north of Baghdad," 12/7/14

- "96 martyrs and injured in the bombings of Sadr City in eastern Baghdad," 12/4/14

Al Mada, "Daash executed 16 Albu Nimr in Anbar and demanding securing of the border with Syria," 12/6/14

- "Killing and wounding 14 civilians in 'anonymous' aerial bombardment targeting two vehicles north of Fallujah," 12/3/14

Al Masalah, “Source: Peshmerga partner in managing the security file in Diyala,” 12/4/14

- "Terrorists killed in clashes with tribesmen in Shirqat," 12/6/14

NINA, "/4/ corpses of civilians found, including a woman north of Mosul," 12/6/14

- “12 Terrorists Killed In Diyala Province,” 12/1/14

- "Breaking News../40/ people killed and wounded in a new toll for the bombing of Kirkuk," 12/4/14

- "Breaking News..The death toll of victims of the bombings of Sadr City rose to /90/civilians killed and wounded," 12/4/14

- "Clashes erupted between federal police supported by tribes and the IS elements while trying to sneak into Amiriyat al-Fallujah," 12/3/14

- "Daash executed three musicians in Mosul," 12/3/14

- "Four elements of the popular mobilization wounded in a roadside bomb in Alexandria in Babylon," 12/5/14

- "The IS arrested six civilians and lead them to an unknown destination in Mosul," 12/5/14

- "The IS elements blew up /4/ guest houses to tribal sheikhs in Qayyarah south of Mosul," 12/1/14

- "Islamic State Executes Police Officer In Mosul," 12/3/14

- “Joint Forces Free Three Villages North Of Tikrit,” 12/1/14

- "A policeman killed, another one wounded during dismantling an explosive device north of Babylon," 12/6/14

- "Security Forces Kill Six Terrorists in Balad, North of Baghdad," 12/1/14

- "Six of Popular Mobilization Fighters Killed North of Tikrit," 12/3/14

Radio Free Iraq, "01 December 2014," Daily Updates from Anbar, 12/1/14

- “02 December 2014, Daily Updates from Anbar, 12/2/14

- "03 December 2014," Daily Updates from Anbar, 12/3/14

Radio Nawa, “The start of a major military operation under the supervision of the Minister of Interior for the liberation of areas south of Tikrit,” 12/1/14

Al Rayy, "8 Daash killed including Tunisian members in Anbar," 12/6/14

- “Daash controls Mutasim north of Samarra,” 12/7/14

- "Daash kidnapped 10 army and police officers south of Mosul," 12/6/14

- “Golden Brigade and the Peshmerga free five villages south of Mosul,”

- "Khazraj tribe repel an attack by Daash in Dujail, killing five members of the organization," 12/2/14

- “A security source: freed neighboring villages of Albu Nimr in Anbar,”

Saad, Mustafa, “Freed five villages of Shirqat from the control of the Daash organization,” Alsumaria, 12/4/14

Salaheddin, Sinan, "Attack on police station in Iraq kills 9 people," Associated Press, 12/7/14

Shafaq News, "26 casualties in Fallujah shelling," 12/4/14

- “Army clears the main stronghold of ISIS near Balad,” 12/4/14

- "Security forces and fighters of the popular crowd clash with ISIS elements south of Tikrit," 12/3/14

- "Three explosions in Baghdad," 12/6/14

Shafiq, Mohammed, “Babil Operations Command: route between Musayib and Amiriyat Fallujah open and entry of food,” Alsumaria, 12/1/14

Yacoub, Sameer, "Officials; Bombings kill 10 people in Iraq," Associated Press, 12/6/14

Yacoub, Sameer and Salama, Vivian, "Iraqi PM retires 24 Interior ministry officials," Associated Press, 12/1/14