Iraq Government Offensives In Anbar And Salahaddin Dragging On For Weeks Or Put On Hold

 

During the third week of June 2015 attacks crept back up in Iraq, but overall casualties were down. One major reason for the latter was there was a dramatic drop in the number of car bombs launched by the Islamic State with just three. Heavy fighting continued in Anbar and Salahaddin where offensives to retake Garma and Baiji have lasted for weeks, while plans to retake Ramadi have been put on hold.

From June 15-21, 2015 there were 141 security incidents reported in the press. The real numbers are always higher. That figure was more than the previous two weeks, which saw 127 attacks the second week and 131 the first week of the month. So far there have been an average of 19.0 attacks per day roughly the same as May’s 18.6.

For the last four weeks Baghdad has led the country in incidents. In the third week of June there were a total of 46. Violence picked up in Anbar where attacks went from 27 the week before to 42. After that there were 22 incidents in Salahaddin, 9 in Ninewa and Diyala each, 8 in Babil, and one each in Basra, Kirkuk, Muthanna, Najaf, and Wasit.

There were 365 deaths and 373 wounded in the media. That was down from 523 killed the second week of June and 431 the week before. The dead consisted of 1 Peshmerga, 6 Sahwa, 16 Hashd al-Shaabi, 173 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 169 civilians. The wounded were made up of 3 Peshmerga, 10 Sahwa, 16 Hashd, 40 ISF, and 304 civilians. This month there have been an average of 62.8 fatalities per day and 59.1 injured versus 77.9 dead and 61.2 wounded in May.

Anbar was the deadliest province during the week with 153 killed. Another 86 died in Ninewa, 53 in Baghdad, 50 in Salahaddin, 14 in Babil, 8 in Diyala, and 1 in Wasit. In terms of the wounded there were 140 in Anbar, 126 in Baghdad, 52 in Salahaddin, 34 in Babil, 18 in Diyala, and 3 in Kirkuk.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	184	434	464
Jan 8-14	170	730	493
Jan 15-21	182	390	515
Jan 22-28	189	466	894
Jan 29-31	90	288	529
JAN	815	2,308	2,895
Feb 1-7	155	380	688
Feb 8-14	170	406	559
Feb 15-21	165	573	364
Feb 22-28	165	371	687 + 386
FEB	655	1,730	2,683
Mar 1-7	172	372	587
Mar 8-14	133	348	656
Mar 15-21	142	1,299	503
Mar 22-28	170	235	406
Mar 29-31	72	205	219
MAR	689	2,459 + 4	2,371 + 150
Apr 1-7	121	212	422
Apr 8-14	133	626	525
Apr 15-21	169	722	714
Apr 22-28	160	483	483
Apr 29-30	50	162 + 7	182 + 299
APR	633	2,212	2,625
May 1-7	154	626	450
May 8-14	154	420	549
May 15-21	124	963	387
May 22-28	108	341 + 1,499	348
May 29-31	38	66	164 + 646
MAY	578	2,416 + 1,499	1,898 + 646
Jun 1-7	132	431	476
Jun 8-14	127	523 + 405	394
Jun 15-21	141	365	373

Violence In Iraq By Province, June 2015

Province	Jun 1-7	Jun 8-14
Anbar	31 Incidents 181 Killed: 64 ISF, 23 Hashd, 40 Sahwa, 54 Civilians 162 Wounded: 77 ISF, 4 Sahwa, 7 Hashd, 74 Civilians 12 Shootings 3 IEDs 5 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Artillery 4 Mortars 2 Rockets 9 Car Bombs Destroyed	27 Incidents 55 Killed: 15 ISF, 27 Hashd, 13 Civilians 71 Wounded: 15 ISF, 24 Hashd, 32 Civilians 14 Shootings 2 IEDs 4 Suicide Bombers 8 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Missile 1 Rockets 18 Suicide Bombers Killed 5 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	3 Incidents 4 Killed: 4 Civilians 13 Wounded: 13 Civilians 1 Shooting 2 IEDs	5 Incidents 9 Killed: 3 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 4 Civilians 26 Wounded: 3 Sahwa, 23 Civilians 4 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb
Baghdad	52 Incidents 73 Killed: 6 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 65 Civilians 185 Wounded: 13 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 170 Civilians 12 Shootings 28 IEDs 5 Sticky Bombs 2 Car Bombs 1 Grenade	49 Incidents 78 Killed: 7 ISF, 4 Sahwa, 68 Civilians 200 Wounded: 16 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 183 Civilians 17 Shootings 23 IEDs 5 Sticky Bombs 1 Sound Bomb 1 Suicide Car Bomb 2 Car Bombs 7 Car Bombs Destroyed
Basra	2 Incidents 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 2 Wounded: 2 Civilians 2 Shootings	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting
Diyala	10 Incidents 23 Killed: 1 ISF, 22 Civilians 41 Wounded: 41 Civilians 1 Shooting 4 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Suicide Car Bomb 1 Mortar	12 Incidents 18 Killed: 1 ISF, 1 Peshmerga, 3 Sahwa, 4 Hashd, 9 Civilians 8 Wounded: 8 Civilians 8 Shootings 2 IEDs
Karbala	-	1 Incident 7 Car Bombs Destroyed
Kirkuk	4 Incidents 3 Killed: 3 Civilians 2 Wounded: 1 Peshmerga, 1 Civilian 2 Shootings 2 IEDs	2 Incidents 127 Killed: 2 Peshmerga, 125 Civilians 13 Wounded: 13 Peshmerga 1 Shooting
Ninewa	13 Incidents 96 Civilians: 1 ISF, 95 Civilians 3 Wounded: 3 Civilians 8 Shootings 8 IEDs	9 Incidents 188 Killed: 33 ISF, 155 Civilians 13 Wounded: 13 Civilians 5 Shootings 3 Suicide Bombers Killed
Salahaddin	17 Incidents 50 Killed: 3 ISF, 36 Hashd, 11 Civilians 68 Wounded: 5 ISF, 44 Hashd, 19 Civilians 9 Shootings 5 IEDs 4 Suicide Bombers 1 Grenades 7 Car Bombs Destroyed	21 Incidents 47 Killed: 30 ISF, 13 Hashd, 4 Civilians 63 Wounded: 12 ISF, 44 Hashd, 7 Civilians 8 Shootings 3 IEDs 5 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb 2 Mortars 29 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 2 Car Bombs Destroyed

Province	Jun 15-21
Anbar	42 Incidents 153 Killed: 73 ISF, 80 Civilians 140 Wounded: 14 ISF, 126 Civilians 28 Shootings 1 IED 3 Suicide Bombers 1 Rockets 7 Mortars
Babil	8 Incidents 14 Killed: 4 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 9 Civilians 34 Wounded: 2 ISF, 3 Hashd, 29 Civilians 1 Shooting 6 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb
Baghdad	46 Incidents 53 Killed: 6 ISF, 2 Hashd, 5 Sahwa, 40 Civilians 126 Wounded: 8 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 10 Hashd, 106 Civilians 12 Shootings 17 IEDs 8 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 2 Mortars
Basra	1 Incident 1 IED
Diyala	9 Incidents 8 Killed: 8 Civilians 18 Wounded: 1 ISF, 17 Civilians 1 Shooting 6 IEDs
Kirkuk	1 Incident 3 Wounded: 3 Civilians 1 Rocket
Muthanna	1 Incident
Najaf	1 Incident 1 Suicide Car Bomb Dismantled
Ninewa	9 Incidents 86 Killed: 70 ISF, 16 Civilians 5 Shootings 16 IEDs 1 Mortar
Salahaddin	22 Incidents 50 Killed: 20 ISF, 1 Peshmerga, 14 Hashd, 15 Civilians 52 Wounded: 15 ISF, 3 Peshmerga, 11 Hashd, 23 Civilians 13 Shootings 4 IEDs 1 Rocket 1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed
Wasit	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting

Car Bombs In Iraq, June 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Jun 1	Fallujah & Thar Thar x3, Anbar	58	57
Jun 2	Palestine St, Baghdad	6	13
Jun 3
Jun 4	Thar Thar, Anbar Baya, Baghdad	5	14
Jun 5
Jun 6	Baladrooz, Diyala	14	37
Jun 7
Totals	8	83	121
Jun 8
Jun 9	Palestine St, Baghdad	10	24
Jun 10	Shula, Baghdad	6	20
Jun 11
Jun 12	Baiji x2, Salahaddin	8	20
Jun 13	Garma x4 & Haiyakil x2, Anbar Hijjaj x4, Salahaddin	42	49
Jun 14	Baghdadi x2, Anbar Shaab, Baghdad	3	10
Totals	17	69	123
Jun 15
Jun 16
Jun 17	Kadhimiya, Baghdad	7	16
Jun 18
Jun 19
Jun 20
Jun 21
Totals	1	7	16

From June 8-14 the Islamic State launched a huge wave of vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) across central Iraq, using up most of its stocks. That resulted in a huge drop in these types of attacks during the third week of June. In the second week, 67 VBIEDs were used with 50 being destroyed or dismantled before reaching their targets, and 17 exploding. During the third week only 1 car bomb went off, while two more were destroyed. The dramatic decline in these types of attacks was one reason why casualties were down for the week.

In Anbar, most of the fighting shifted from the Ramadi area to Garma, which is to the northeast of Fallujah. On June 15 the area around Garma was declared cleared. Three days later the city center was said to be under control, but there were clashes continuing on to the present day. The operation in Garma started on May 20. That was just ten days after the last one was called a success. That offensive began back in the middle of March, taking two months to complete. It appears the on going one will last just as long with no guarantee that IS wont slip back into the area later on as it has done repeatedly throughout Anbar.

Originally, Ramadi was supposed to be the focus in Anbar after the city fell to the Islamic State in mid-May, but things have been put on hold. Unofficially, a member of the Anbar council complained that the Hashd did not listen to the Anbar Operations Command, that there was no cooperation between the tribes, ISF, and Hashd, and that the government was waiting for a new group of tribal fighters to be trained by the Americans before any move was made on the city. More importantly, the Hashd decided unilaterally that their focus would not be on Ramadi, but Fallujah to the east. A Hashd spokesman claimed that Fallujah had to be cleared to protect Baghdad. Tribes on the other hand were ready to move on Ramadi, but were stopped by the ISF and Hashd, and told that they had to wait until a plan was put together. Overall, it appears that the attack upon Ramadi is in disarray with no one actually being in control. The result is constant clashes with the IS, but no real actions have been taken against either Ramadi or Fallujah yet. How long that will last is not known. This plays into the Islamic State’s hands because the longer they are given the more time they have to build up their defenses. That means whenever the government does act it will take far longer to take back Ramadi, and cost more lives than if they hadn’t waited.

For the last several weeks violence has dropped off in Kirkuk. That was shown during the third week of June when there was only one reported attack, which consisted of some rockets fired at a residential complex in Taza. The Islamic State is still entrenched in the Hawija district in the south, but the government has not done anything about it. When the Tikrit offensive started in May the ISF and peshmerga were supposed to attack the area from the north and south, but that never materialized. Since then there have only been occasional security sweeps in places like the Hamrin Mountains. The result is a relatively quite province, but one where the IS’s presence has not really been challenged.

In Ninewa IS continued with its regular executions. On June 21 3 former candidates for Iraqiya were executed along with a former soldier and his son. That same day a mass grave with 70 soldiers executed by IS was discovered in Tal Afar, which is in the west by the Syrian border. IS also made two probing attacks on the Kurdish forces in the north, but to no avail.

Baiji in Salahaddin has been hotly contested between the government and IS since last summer. ISF, tribes and the Hashd have been involved in operations to retake the refinery there and the surrounding area since the start of May. Like in Anbar the government’s forces are split amongst many commands making progress difficult. It appears that fighting will continue there for several more weeks.

On the positive side during the third week of June officials let the first group of families return to Tikrit after it was liberated last month. Almost the entire city was disserted after IS seized it during the summer, with most of the remainders leaving when the government launched its offensive there in May. Before the Hashd were in command of most of the city, but now control has been turned over to a local police force. The city lacks services, and the liberating forces destroyed 400 homes after the city was freed. There are also on going arguments amongst tribes in the surrounding towns over members accused of supporting the Islamic State. That has left some villages empty as a result.

There were also two incidents between the Hashd and Kurds in the Tuz Kharmato district. On June 17, a group of Hashd opened fire on a car killing one Kurdish civilian and wounding four others. That led to clashes with the Peshmerga. Some Kurdish fighers were wounded and Hashd arrested. Three days later, a fight broke out between some Hashd and a civilian in a market that led to the shooting death of the latter. Four Hashd were arrested as a result. There have been intermittent flare ups between the Hashd and Kurds in Tuz Kharmato and other disputed areas in Diyala. In these places there is a rough division of power between the two, which has often boiled over and led to shots being fired. These incidents have been contained, usually after negotiations, but they point to future problems as some Hashd elements have voiced opposition to the Kurds controlling these areas. That will have to be dealt with after the Islamic State is defeated.

SOURCES

Bilal, Imad, “Shi’ite Militias Open Fire on Kurdish Civilians,” Bas News, 6/20/15

Al Mada, “Anbar tribes waiting for “central plan” for freeing of Baiji and Ramadi,” 6/20/15

- “Popular Crowd: Plan to free Ramadi and Fallujah will be carried out with minimal losses,” 6/18/15

Millet Press, "ISIS executes ex-parliament candidates in Mosul," 6/21/15

Morris, Loveday, “Iraq chased Islamic State out of Tikrit. Getting residents back is still a battle,” Washington Post, 6/19/15

NINA, "Breaking News..Military Operations To Liberate Karma Area Kicked Off," 3/15/15

- "ISIS Executes An Officer In The Iraqi Army And His Son In Central Mosul," 6/21/15

Radio Free Iraq, "10 May 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 5/10/15

- "15 June 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 6/15/15

- "18 June 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 6/18/15

- "20 June 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 6/20/15

Reuters, “First families return to Tikrit since city retaken from IS,” 6/15/15

Rudaw, "Mass grave found in Tal Afar and several homes detonated in Mosul," 6/22/15

- “Ramadi military operations halted,” 6/16/15

Salama, Vivian, "Iraqi officials: Suicide bomb at police checkpoint kills 7," Associated Press, 6/18/15

Shafaq News, "Security forces and PMU launch a "violent" attack on al-Karma," 5/20/15

Sotaliraq, "Daash bombarding residential neighborhoods of Taza, south of Kirkuk," 6/20/15