Violence On the Decline In Iraq

June saw a slight uptick in attacks in Iraq, but casualties were lower than May. The majority of the violence during the month was in Baghdad, Anbar, and Salahaddin, which has been true for most of the year. There were also a large number of fatalities in Ninewa due to Islamic State executions. Overall, attacks have been steadily going down after the start of the year.

Musings On Iraq counted 622 security incidents in June 2015. At the start of the month attacks were relatively low, but then began increasing towards the end, especially during the fourth week. There were an average of 20.7 attacks per day, which was up from 18.6 per day in May, but below the figures for the rest of the year, which saw 26.3 in January, 23.3 in February, 22.2 in March, and 21.1 in April, which shows a downward trend. Many attacks go unreported so the real numbers are much higher.

As usual, Baghdad, Anbar and Salahaddin saw the most incidents. Baghdad had 229 during the month. Anbar had 157 and Salahaddin 93. Anbar has been the main focus of the Islamic State for the last year, and it has recently picked up attacks in Baghdad as well. On the other hand, the government has been spending most of its time in Salahaddin. After those three provinces there were 48 attacks in Ninewa, 42 in Diyala, 24 in Babil, 18 in Kirkuk, 7 in Basra, and one each in Karbala, Muthanna, Najaf, and Wasit. In Karbala and Najaf the security forces discovered car bombs and successful disarmed them before they exploded. In Muthanna a house was burned, and in Wasit a man was shot and killed. The Karbala and Najaf incidents showed that IS was still trying to hit the south with mass casualty car bombs, but has not been successful for several months now.

The press reported 1,804 killed and 2,012 wounded during the month. The former was made up of 4 Peshmerga, 60 Sahwa, 136 Hashd al-Shaabi, 406 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 1,198 civilians. The latter consisted of 17 Peshmerga, 25 Sahwa, 157 Hashd, 308 ISF, and 1,505 civilians. Overall, that was 3,816 casualties, which was lower than May’s 4,314 despite the increase in attacks. The number of dead and injured is being grossly under reported because the Iraqi government does not want to be open about its losses fearing that it would hurt morale. There are probably thousands and thousands of casualties that have been kept secret as a result.

The deadliest governorates were not the ones with the most attacks. Anbar had 552 deaths. After that was Ninewa with 446. That was because 80 Yazidi bodies were found in a mass grave in Badush at the start of June, and 70 soldiers in a mass grave in Tal Afar in the middle of the month. The Islamic State executed another 234 people, mostly in Mosul. Then there were 323 killed in Baghdad, 200 in Salahaddin, 133 in Kirkuk, 87 in Diyala, 35 in Babil, 5 in Basra, and one in Wasit. Kirkuk has been relatively quiet for months now, but a grave with 125 bodies was found in a warehouse used by IS in Hawija in the middle of the month accounting for the high casualty rate there.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	184	434	464
Jan 8-14	170	730	493
Jan 15-21	182	390	515
Jan 22-28	189	466	894
Jan 29-31	90	288	529
JAN	815	2,308	2,895
Feb 1-7	155	380	688
Feb 8-14	170	406	559
Feb 15-21	165	573	364
Feb 22-28	165	371	687 + 386
FEB	655	1,730	2,683
Mar 1-7	172	372	587
Mar 8-14	133	348	656
Mar 15-21	142	1,299	503
Mar 22-28	170	235	406
Mar 29-31	72	205	219
MAR	689	2,459 + 4	2,371 + 150
Apr 1-7	121	212	422
Apr 8-14	133	626	525
Apr 15-21	169	722	714
Apr 22-28	160	483	483
Apr 29-30	50	162 + 7	182 + 299
APR	633	2,212	2,625
May 1-7	154	626	450
May 8-14	154	420	549
May 15-21	124	963	387
May 22-28	108	341 + 1,499	348
May 29-31	38	66	164 + 646
MAY	578	2,416 + 1,499	1,898 + 646
Jun 1-7	132	431	476
Jun 8-14	126	522 + 405	394
Jun 15-21	141	365	373
Jun 22-28	162	306	474
Jun 29-30	61	122	189
JUN	622	1,804	2,012

Violence In Iraq June 2015 By Province

Province	Attacks	Dead	Wounded	Type
Anbar	157	552 40 Sahwa 50 Hashd 158 ISF 304 Civilians	585 4 Sahwa 31 Hashd 116 ISF 434 Civilians	85 Shootings 6 IEDs 7 Suicide Bombers 13 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb 1 Artillery 15 Mortars 5 Rockets 1 Missiles 34 Suicide Bombers Killed 12 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	24	35 1 Hashd 3 Sahwa 7 ISF 24 Civilians	100 3 Sahwa 6 ISF 7 Hashd 84 Civilians	2 Shootings 18 IEDs 2 Sticky Bombs 1 Sound Bomb
Baghdad	229	323 2 Hashd 14 Sahwa 23 ISF 284 Civilians	804 2 Hashd 18 Sahwa 49 ISF 735 Civilians	61 Shootings 108 IEDs 27 Sticky Bombs 1 Sound Bomb 2 Suicide Car Bombs 6 Car Bombs 2 Grenades 2 Mortars 7 Car Bombs Destroyed
Basra	7	5 5 Civilians	4 4 Civilians	5 Shootings 2 IEDs
Diyala	42	87 1 Peshmerga 3 Sahwa 4 Hashd 6 ISF 73 Civilians	157 2 Hashd 7 ISF 148 Civilians	10 Shootings 22 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 2 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Mortar
Karbala	1			7 Car Bombs Destroyed
Kirkuk	18	133 1 ISF 2 Peshmerga 130 Civilians	44 12 ISF 14 Peshmerga 18 Civilians	5 Shootings 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Rockets 2 Grenades
Muthanna	1
Najaf	1			1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed
Ninewa	48	446 114 ISF 332 Civilians	16 16 Civilians	27 Shootings 70 IEDs 1 Mortar 8 Suicide Bombers Killed
Salahaddin	93	200 1 Peshmerga 75 ISF 45 Civilians 79 Hashd	258 3 Peshmerga 74 ISF 66 Civilians 115 Hashd	42 Shootings 22 IEDs 8 Suicide Bombers 6 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb 5 Mortars 1 Rockets 1 Grenades 2 Suicide Bombers Killed 31 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 12 Car Bombs Destroyed
Wasit	1	1 1 Civilian		1 Shooting

Car Bombs In Iraq, June 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Jun 1	Fallujah & Thar Thar x3, Anbar	58	57
Jun 2	Palestine St, Baghdad	6	13
Jun 3
Jun 4	Thar Thar, Anbar Baya, Baghdad	5	14
Jun 5
Jun 6	Baladrooz, Diyala	14	37
Jun 7
Totals	8	83	121
Jun 8
Jun 9	Palestine St, Baghdad	10	24
Jun 10	Shula, Baghdad	6	20
Jun 11
Jun 12	Baiji x2, Salahaddin	8	20
Jun 13	Garma x4 & Haiyakil x2, Anbar Hijjaj x4, Salahaddin	42	49
Jun 14	Baghdadi x2, Anbar Shaab, Baghdad	3	10
Totals	17	69	123
Jun 15
Jun 16
Jun 17	Kadhimiya, Baghdad	7	16
Jun 18
Jun 19
Jun 20
Jun 21
Totals	1	7	16
Jun 22	Nukhaib, Anbar	2	8
Jun 23
Jun 24	Mandali, Diyala	16	22
Jun 25	Shaab, Baghdad	6	16
Jun 26	Baiji, Salahaddin	3	5
Jun 27	Karrada, Baghdad	5	13
Jun 28
Totals	5	32	64
Jun 29
Jun 30
GRAND TOTAL	31	191	324

There were just 31 successfully detonated vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in June. That was the lowest amount since 21 in December. In the second week IS launched 67 car bombs, the vast majority of which were destroyed. After that IS seemed to have used up its ready-made stockpiles with just 6 going off over the next sixteen days. This was a change in tactics as IS had been using more VBIEDs each month since January.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, "Buried 125 unidentified bodies that were recovered from the warehouse site in Hawija, Kirkuk," 6/14/15

eKurd, "Iraqi Kurdistan News in brief - June 1, 2015," 6/1/15

Rudaw, "Mass grave found in Tal Afar and several homes detonated in Mosul," 6/22/15