Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Iraq’s Oil Exports Flat For Last Three Months


After hitting an all time post-2003 high in oil exports at the end of 2014, the country’s foreign petroleum sales have leveled off for the last three months. Since December 2015 the country’s exports have remained relatively stable, while prices and revenues have dropped.

In February 2016 Iraq exported an average of 3.225 million barrels a day. That was slightly down from January’s 3.285 million. Bad weather was blamed for the dip, preventing tankers from docking in the country’s southern ports. Overall, since December the country has had at least 3.2 million barrels per month in foreign sales.

All of the exports came from southern oil fields, but there was an anomaly. As Iraq Oil Report pointed out the Oil Ministry said that 93.2 million barrels were sent through the Basra ports out of a total of 93.536 million. It didn’t say where the other 336,000 barrels came from. 

The price for Iraqi oil was up slightly in February, but its revenues were slightly down. In February a barrel of Iraqi crude went for $23, up from $22.21 in January. That earned it $2.2 billion, just a bit below the $2.26 billion it made the month before. Compared to 2015, Iraq is earning around 45% less each month. This has put tremendous pressure upon Baghdad to pay its bills which are at an estimated $4 billion a month, but the government has not proposed any serious reforms to solve its problems. Even modest proposals like reducing salaries and pensions for civil workers have been dropped due to public outcry. Instead, the country is draining its Central Bank reserves, and doing business as usual even though that is not sustainable.

Iraq Oil Exports & Revenues 2015-16
Month
Avg.
Exports
Avg. Price
Per Barrel
Earnings
(Bil)
Jan
2.535
$41.45
$3.258
Feb
2.597
$47.43
$3.449
Mar
2.98
$48.24
$4.457
Apr
3.077
$51.70
$4.8
May
3.145
$55.87
$5.447
Jun
3.187
$55.32
$5.289
Jul
3.104
$50.99
$4.908
Aug
3.079
$40.59
$3.874
Sep
3.052
$40.32
$3.692
Oct
2.7
$39.56
$3.320
Nov
3.365
$36.42
$3.67
Dec
3.215
$29.84
$2.793
2015 Avg.
3.003
$44.81
$4.079
Jan
3.285
$22.21
$2.26
Feb
3.225
$23
$2.2


2015-16 Oil Exports From Basra
Jan 2.39 mil/bar/day
Feb 2.29 mil/bar/day
Mar 2.71 mil/bar/day
Apr 2.62 mil/bar/day
May 2.69 mil/bar/day
Jun 3.022 mil/bar/day
Jul 3.064 mil/bar/day
Aug 3.021 mil/bar/day
Sep 3.03 mil/bar/day
Oct 2.7 mil/bar/day
Nov 3.37 mil/bar/day
Dec 3.215 mil/bar/day
Jan 3.285 mil/bar/day
Feb 3.213 mil/bar/day

2015-16 Oil Exports By Kurds For Baghdad
Jan 153,000 bar/day
Feb 306,000 bar/day
Mar 268,000 bar/day
Apr 450,000 bar/day
May 451,000 bar/day
Jun 164,733 bar/day
Jul 41,000 bar/day
Aug 50,900 bar/day
Sep 21,500 bar/day
Oct 0.0
Nov 0.0
Dec 0.0
Jan 0.0
Feb 0.0

SOURCES

Lando, Ben and Osgood, Patrick, “Oil exports and revenues see decline,” Iraq Oil Report, 3/2/16

Al Mada, “Abadi: oil revenues are not enough for the salaries and retirement,” 10/28/15

Morris, Loveday, “Iraq is broke. Add that to its list of worries,” Washington Post, 3/5/16

Osgood, Patrick and Tahir, Rawaz, “New rhetoric underscores Erbil-Baghdad oil disputes,” Iraq Oil Report, 2/17/16

Reuters, “Iraq’s southern oil exports slip in February,” 3/1/16


No comments:

Troubles Of The Tribal And Local Hashd In Anbar And Ninewa

As more Iraqi territory has been freed the government has run into a growing problem, how to secure it all. Most of th...