After the 2003 invasion President George Bush argued
that Iraq was part of his freedom agenda. He believed that overthrowing Saddam
Hussein was the first step in transforming the entire Middle East where
autocratic governments and terrorism were rampant. In a speech
at the Army War College in May 2004 for example, the president said that a
stable and democratic Iraq would discredit militants’ ideology and help reform
the region. Bush believed that only by going to the heart of the Muslim world
could that change be effected. The CIA however had completely different ideas.
In October 2004 the CIA wrote a memo, “Near Term Regional
Implications of Successful Iraqi Elections.” The report was assessing the up
coming elections that would be held in Iraq in 2005, but also addressed what
kind of affect they would have on the Middle East. The Agency thought that a
democratic Iraq would likely cause opposition from the Sunni regimes such as
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Gulf States. They would probably crackdown on
their own Shiite populations, and solidify their hold on power. This was a
direct challenge to the president’s beliefs.
In the years since the 2003 invasion it would seem that the
CIA was right about the effect the Iraq invasion would have on the Middle East
and North Africa. Besides the brief and largely unfulfilled hope of the Arab
Spring not much has changed in the region. Some leaders have gone such as
Mubarak in Egypt and Khadaffi in Libya, while others remain like Assad and the
political systems are largely the same. As the Agency predicted the Saudis and
Gulf States were against the new Iraq and refused to send ambassadors for years
after the overthrow of Saddam, while supporting the insurgency. The Shiites
outside of Iraq are still largely a marginalized minority. Finally, given all
of the violence that Iraq has gone through and continues to experience plus its
political dysfunction tends to undermines the positive fact that it is one of
the few democracies in the region.
SOURCES
Bush, President George, “Bush’s Remarks on Iraq at the Army
War College,” Washington Post, 5/24/04
Gordon, Michael and Trainor, General Bernard, The Endgame, The Inside Story Of The
Struggle For Iraq, From George W. Bush To Barack Obama, New York, Pantheon,
2012
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