Iraq’s ruling Shiite parties are already thinking about the
day after the war with the Islamic State. They are positioning themselves for
future political battles, which are breaking down old alliances and playing
upon existing rivalries. There are growing signs of these divisions, and
worries that they could turn violent. That happened in June when Sadrist
protesters began attacking offices of rival parties raising tensions almost to
the breaking point.
One sign that tempers were running high occurred when Moqtada
al-Sadr’s followers stormed the Green Zone of the first time. On May
20, 2016 protesters went into the government section of Baghdad. In turn some
Hashd groups put their men on the streets of the capital causing fears that
their might be armed confrontations, but that didn’t happen. Sadr was
attempting to establish himself as the new king maker in Iraq with this action.
He wanted Prime Minister Haidar Abadi to become dependent upon him to push
through his reform program, while also intimidating the other ruling parties of
the consequences, public protests right in the seat of power, if they didn’t go
along. Things only escalated from there.
In June, Sadrists upped the ante attacking rival parties’
offices in southern Iraq. On June
9, Dawa’s office in Najaf was sacked
and burned. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) ended up shooting into the crowd to
disperse them wounding three. The next
day protesters
broke into and shut down Dawa, Supreme Council, Reform
Movement, and Badr offices in Basra city, Amarah in Maysan, Kut in Wasit,
Nasiriyah in Dhi Qar, Najaf city, Karbala City, and Samawa in Muthanna. At
first, a member of Sadr’s Ahrar bloc in parliament denied the movement was
responsible, but that was quickly contradicted by Sadr himself who told his
followers to stop, and said
that anyone that used violence should be punished. Sadr had gone from taking
over the government in Baghdad to challenging the other ruling parties. The
Green Zone takeover was already verging on mob rule, but Sadr’s move in
southern Iraq was exactly that as offices were ransacked as a political threat
to his rivals. It also showed the changing political landscape amongst the Shiite
parties. Sadr had long running disputes with Badr and Maliki’s faction of Dawa,
but had given his nominal support to Abadi’s part of the latter. Now the
Sadrists were taking on the Supreme Council and Reform Movement as well, which
it had good relations with before and even an alliance with the former.
The response by the other Shiite parties verged on stern
warnings to the threat of violence. The National Alliance, which is made up of
the Sadrists, the Supreme Council, Fadhila, and the Reform Movement held a meeting
at the home of Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari and came out condemning
Sadr’s actions. Premier Abadi warned
demonstrators to stay away from the offices of his Dawa party. Nouri al-Maliki compared
the mobs to the Republican Guard and Fedayeen Saddam, while Badr’s Hadi Ameri
claimed they were like the Islamic State and Baathists. Ameri and a Dawa
parliamentarian went on to say that Badr and Dawa had the right to self-defense
if any more of its offices were attacked. Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl
Al-Haq, who are aligned with Maliki also gave a warning to Sadr. It seemed like
the Shiite parties were on the brink of armed conflict. Taking the Green Zone
was one thing, but assaulting their offices was something they wouldn’t stand
for. If there had been another day of demonstrations things could have quickly
got out of hand.
Sadr played his hand, but warned that more could come. On
June 11, Sadr said his followers would hold off on any more demonstrations
until after Ramadan. At the same time he threatened
a million man march in Baghdad afterward. That could very well go to the Green
Zone once again. The second time the Sadrists took over that area the ISF ended
up killing four people. There could be another such deadly incident if Sadr
followed through with his announcement. The Shiite parties and Hashd elements could
decide to get involved as well leading to an even bigger crisis.
Sadr is walking a dangerous line. He is using his popular
movement to push the Shiite elite to follow his lead or suffer the consequences
of an angry mob. That threat has escalated from the Green Zone to attacking the
parties in their base in the south. The problem is Sadr’s strategy has no
chance of succeeding. Parliament is so divided right now that it can barely
hold sessions. Neither Abadi nor the other lists will give into Sadr, and his
protests are only adding to the political crisis. Sadr’s threats could quickly
spiral out of control, and other parties have already warned that they will use
force against the Sadrists. This is the war for power that many are afraid will
break out after the war with the Islamic State is over. It may even start
before the insurgents are defeated.
SOURCES
AIN, “Sadr orders to hold accountable anyone who attacks the
headquarters or public and private property,” 6/11/16
- “Saraya Jihad: The assault on the headquarters of the
Mujahideen will not deter their resolve to fight terrorism,” 6/9/16
- “Urgent Sadr refuses to encroach upon the headquarters of
political parties and emphasizes peaceful demonstrations,” 6/10/16
Face Iraq, “Hadi al-Amiri orders to deal with aggressors on
the Badr Organization headquarters Calls them Baathists and Daash,” 6/10/16
Al Forat, “Injuring three demonstrators during protest
outside Dawa Party headquarters in Najaf,” 6/9/16
Hameed, Saif and Mohammed, Aref, “Iraqi cleric Sadr asks followers to
stop attacks on rivals’ offices,” Reuters, 6/11/16
Iraq News Network, “Abadi: the headquarters of the Dawa
Party, a red line,” 6/10/16
Iraq Times, “Ameri warns followers of Muqtada al-Sadr to not
assault the headquarters of his organization and describes them as Baathists
and Daash,” 6/9/16
- “Citizens Coalition Moqtada and his followers want to
ignite a Shiite-Shiite war,” 6/9/16
- “Al-Maliki: Muqtada’s attacks on the headquarters of
political parties reminiscent of the Republican Guard and Fedayeen Saddam,”
6/9/16
Al Mada, “Closing party offices puts Sayid in a confrontation with the
National Alliance parties,” 6/11/16
NINA, “Angry demonstrators closed the Dawa Party Offices in Babylon,”
6/10/16
- “Sadrists demonstrators attacking the Dawa party’s headquarters in
Najaf,” 6/10/16
Shafaq News, “Iraq’s Sadr warns of ‘million-man’ demo after Ramadan
pause,” 6/12/16
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