Sadr Won’t Participate In Iraq’s Upcoming Elections

After much speculation Moqtada al-Sadr announced that he would not take part in this year’s parliamentary elections. This is good news for the ruling Coordination Framework because it doesn’t have to worry about its biggest rival. On the other hand it will be a hit for the country’s political system as it will likely result in the lowest voter turnout since 2003.

 

On March 28 Sadr said that he would not participate in the upcoming vote for the National Assembly citing corruption in the political process. This ended months of speculation about what he would do and whether any of the other Shiite leaders could form a coalition with him.

 

This will have two impacts. First, as Sadr has the largest movement in the country his boycott will likely lead to the lowest voter turnout since elections re-started in 2005. In 2021 the Election Commission actually changed how it calculated that number and claimed that 41% of voters participated when in fact it was likely 36%. That was the smallest figure so far and will likely be surpassed in 2025. Sadr might be thinking that his absence will further undermine the standing of politicians so that he might take advantage of that discontent in the future. Second, this will assure the current ruling parties will maintain their hold upon the government although not in their current form. The Coordination Framework that formed the Sudani administration will run separately this year.  Premier Sudani will form his own list and compete with former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for the top position. This continues the trend of intra-Shiite rivalries that started in 2010 when Maliki ran alone believing he would win a majority but failed to do so. After the voting however all the parties come back together to divvy up government positions so that they might control and steal from the state.

 

SOURCES

 

Al Aalem, “After Sadr’s boycott turnout drops and warnings of popular unrest,” 3/29/25

- “Al-Aalem Al-Jadeed reveals the map of the new electoral alliances from the Framework,” 3/22/25

- “A new map for the Shiite House .. Seven lists for the Coordination Framework during the upcoming elections,” 3/5/25

 

Bas News, “Iraq’s Sudani Forms Political Coalition Ahed of Elections,” 3/28/25

 

Al Hurra, “Muqtada al-Sadr Announces Non-Participation in Upcoming Iraqi Elections,” 3/28/25

 

Al Mada, “Alliances move between Al-Sudani and Al-Maliki’s boats, awaiting Al-Sadr’s compass,” 3/4/25