Iraq is trying to better comply with its OPEC+ production quota. As a result its oil exports have dropped for the last two months. This reversed a trend where foreign sales were increasing.
In May Iraq exported an average of 3.278 million barrels a day. That was down from 3.365 million in April and 3.441 million in March.
Before that exports were going up from December to March.
The change is due to Iraq cutting its production to comply with OPEC+. It’s quota is around 4 million barrels a day and OPEC has recorded Iraq making around 3.9 million. The Oil Ministry claimed it was only producing 3.605 million barrels in May but that did not include Kurdistan.
Ironically the country’s quota has been going up since the start of the year. At the same time international oil prices are declining meaning the group is changing policy at the wrong time.
Iraq’s revenues reflect this trend. It earned $6.738 billion in April and only $6.24 billion in May. At the start of the year it made $7.47 billion for basically the same amount of exports as May.
There are increasing articles in the Iraqi press that the country could fall into financial trouble if petroleum prices continue to drop. The country is the most oil dependent country in the world and has passed several massive budgets recently. If the market continues to decline Baghdad could face large deficits and have to borrow heavily as it did in the past. This could lead to government workers not being paid and protests which the government desperately wants to avoid with elections scheduled for November.
Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2021-2024
|
Month |
Avg Export (Mil) |
Earnings (Bil) |
|
Jan 2021 |
2.868 |
$4.765 |
|
Feb |
2.96 |
$5.013 |
|
Mar |
2.946 |
$5.787 |
|
Apr |
2.947 |
$5.549 |
|
May |
2.899 |
$5.917 |
|
Jun |
2.892 |
$6.143 |
|
Jul |
2.918 |
$6.476 |
|
Aug |
3.054 |
$6.553 |
|
Sep |
3.081 |
$6.777 |
|
Oct |
3.12 |
$7.666 |
|
Nov |
3.272 |
$7.611 |
|
Dec |
3.277 |
$7.391 |
|
2021 Avg |
3.019 |
$6.303 |
|
Jan 2022 |
3.203 |
$8.323 |
|
Feb |
3.314 |
$8.544 |
|
Mar |
3.244 |
$10.913 |
|
Apr |
3.38 |
$10.554 |
|
May |
3.3 |
$11.44 |
|
Jun |
3.373 |
$11.505 |
|
Jul |
3.303 |
$10.608 |
|
Aug |
3.286 |
$9.784 |
|
Sep |
3.292 |
$8.845 |
|
Oct |
3.382 |
$9.258 |
|
Nov |
3.329 |
$8.231 |
|
Dec |
3.332 |
$7.709 |
|
2022 Avg |
3.311 |
$9.64 |
|
Jan |
3.266 |
$7.663 |
|
Feb |
3.184 |
$7.081 |
|
Mar |
3.255 |
$7.506 |
|
Apr |
3.288 |
$7.699 |
|
May |
3.305 |
$7.325 |
|
Jun |
3.335 |
$7.115 |
|
Jul |
3.444 |
$8.294 |
|
Aug |
3.423 |
$8.998 |
|
Sep |
3.438 |
$9.422 |
|
Oct |
3.534 |
$9.594 |
|
Nov |
3.433 |
$8.482 |
|
Dec |
3.486 |
$8.311 |
|
2023 Avg |
3.365 |
$8.124 |
|
Jan |
3.339 |
$8.02 |
|
Feb |
3.434 |
$7.96 |
|
Mar |
3.423 |
$8.65 |
|
Apr |
3.413 |
$8.75 |
|
May |
3.359 |
$8.14 |
|
Jun |
3.41 |
$8.25 |
|
Jul |
3.486 |
$9.08 |
|
Aug |
3.414 |
$8.49 |
|
Sep |
3.31 |
$7.11 |
|
Oct |
3.327 |
$7.47 |
|
Nov |
3.296 |
$7.01 |
|
Dec |
3.259 |
$7.15 |
|
2024 Avg |
3.372 |
$8.00 |
|
Jan |
3.298 |
$7.47 |
|
Feb |
3.398 |
$6.7 |
|
Mar |
3.441 |
$7.717 |
|
Apr |
3.365 |
$6.738 |
|
May |
3.278 |
$6.24 |
SOURCES
Van Heuvelen, Ben, “Iraq’s May oil exports decrease in nod to OPEC-plus commitments,” Iraq Oil Report, 6/2/25
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