Prime Minister Mohammed Sudani came in first place in November’s parliamentary election. However he didn’t win enough seats to ensure a second term. His main opponent Nouri al-Maliki came in second but didn’t do as well as he hoped. That means the government formation process will be a free for all since the two main politicians vying for the premiership are at the mercy of the other lists to form a ruling coalition.
Early reports have the order the lists finished in the November election but don’t agree upon how many seats they won. Shafaq News had PM Sudani’s Reconstruction and Development list with 45 seats, Nuri al-Maliki’s State of Law with 30, Asaib Ahl Al-Haq’s Sadiqoon with 26, Badr with 19 and Ammar Hakim’s National State Forces with 18 seats.
Shafaq News Election Results
|
List |
Seats |
|
Reconstruction and Development |
45 |
|
State of Law |
30 |
|
Sadiqoon |
26 |
|
Badr |
19 |
|
National State Forces |
18 |
Iraq Oil Report on the other hand had Sudani with 46 seats, Maliki with 28, Mohammed al-Halbusi’s Taqadum with 27, Sadiqoon with 26, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) with 26, Badr with 18, The National State Forces with 18, Azm Alliance with 15, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) with 15.
Iraq Oil Report Election Results
|
List |
Seats |
|
Reconstruction and Development |
46 |
|
State of Law |
28 |
|
Taqadum |
27 |
|
Sadiqoon |
26 |
|
KDP |
26 |
|
Badr |
18 |
|
National State Forces |
18 |
|
Azm |
15 |
|
PUK |
15 |
Prime Minister Sudani came in first place but he did not win by the large margin he hoped for that would give him a commanding position in gaining a second term. According to Al Alam the Shiite parties won 197 seats. Sudani only controls around 20% of those seats meaning the other parties could outmaneuver him.
On the other hand his main rival Nuri al-Maliki did not do well. His State of Law list only brought in 28-30 seats. That puts both he and Sudani at the mercy of the other lists because they have to make deals with them to win the premiership.
Already a member of Badr said that the current ruling coalition the Coordination Framework did not need Sudani to form the next government. There are many within the list that are opposed to Sudani gaining a second term. Others wouldn’t mind but want Sudani to be under their influence rather than him carving out his own power base which was what he attempted to do during the election. This could mean that a new prime minister is named since Sudani is divisive and doesn’t hold the upper hand.
A person who may turn out to be a deal maker is Qais Khazali of Asaib Ahl Al-Haq. His Sadiqoon came in third place amongst the Shiite lists with 26 seats. Khazali is part of the pro-Iran Resistance factions. While many of them have been focused upon getting the Americans out of Iraq and the Gaza War Khazali has been gaining positions within the government. He now has roughly the same number of seats as Maliki making him a power broker in negotiations.
The pattern in putting together a new government since 2005 has been that the other parties wait for the Shiite lists to come up with a consensus candidate for prime minister and then they divide up all the ministries, director generals, etc. using a point system based upon how many seats they won and then a new administration is announced. The last time there was deep resentment and anger over the election results leading to protests and demonstrations and almost a year before Sudani was made prime minister. Many hope that this time things will go smoothly and a new government will be put together in a few months.
There is likely to be an early snag in that process however. A speaker of parliament and president have to be named before the premier. This time around the KDP wants the presidency a position held by the PUK since 2005. Before the PUK got this position and the KDP got the presidency of the KRG in a power sharing agreement. The PUK has been fading since the passing of its founder Jalal Talabani and now the KDP is the dominate Kurdish party. It wants all the top Kurdish positions as a result. This will be a heated argument as the KDP and PUK haven’t even agreed upon a new Kurdistan Regional government months after Kurdish ballots were passed. Turkey the main backer of the KDP and Iran a patron of the PUK will probably be brought in the mediate. It will be interesting to see if America’s new Iraq representative will play a role.
TOP 3 FINISHES BY PROVINCE
|
Anbar |
|
Taqadum |
|
Al Anbar Is Our Identity |
|
Qimam Coalition |
|
Babil |
|
Reconstruction and Development |
|
Sadiqoon |
|
State of Law |
|
Baghdad |
|
Reconstruction and Development |
|
Taqadum |
|
State of Law |
|
Basra |
|
Tasmin Alliance/Basra Gov Eidani |
|
Sadqioon |
|
Reconstruction and Development |
|
Dhi Qar |
|
Reconstruction and Development |
|
State of Law |
|
Sadiqoon |
|
Diyala |
|
Badr |
|
Taqadum |
|
Soveriegnty Alliance/Khamis al-Khanjar |
|
Dohuk |
|
KDP |
|
Kurdistan Islamic Union |
|
National Stance Movement |
|
Irbil |
|
KDP |
|
PUK |
|
National Position Movement |
|
Irbil |
|
KDP |
|
PUK |
|
National Position Movement |
|
Karbala |
|
Reconstruction and Development |
|
State of Law |
|
Ishraqat Kanoon Alliance |
|
Kirkuk |
|
PUK |
|
Taqadum |
|
Iraqi Turkmen Front |
|
Maysan |
|
Reconstruction and Development |
|
Badr |
|
State of Law |
|
Muthanna |
|
Reconstruction and Development |
|
State of Law |
|
Sadiqoon |
|
Najaf |
|
Reconstruction and Development |
|
National State Forces |
|
State of Law |
|
Ninewa |
|
KDP |
|
Taqadum |
|
Reconstruction and Development |
|
Qadisiya |
|
Reconstruction and Development |
|
State of Law |
|
Badr |
|
Salahaddin |
|
Progress Party/Mohammed Halbusi |
|
Reconstruction and Development |
|
Azm Alliance |
|
Sulaymaniya |
|
PUK |
|
National Stance Movement |
|
New Generation |
|
Wasit |
|
Wasit al-Ajmal Alliance |
|
State of Law |
|
Reconstruction and Development |
SOURCES
Al Alam, “2025 Elections Reinforce Traditional Landscape and Complicate Sudani’s Path to a Second term,” 11/13/25
- “The Coordination Framework Seeks to Keep al-Sudani Under Its Bulge, While The Latter Makes the Prime Ministership a Condition for His “Return,”” 11/13/25
- “The Kurdish Honeymoon Ends: The Presidency Ignites Conflict: Erbil and Sulaymaniyah Between Washington’s Influence and Tehran’s Shadow,” 11/8/25
Iraq Oil Report, “Analysis: Iraq’s 2025 election results,” 11/15/25
Shafaq News, “Iraq’s CF: Forming largest bloc does not require al-Sudani alliance,” 11/13/25
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