As the Iran War enters its second month Iran and its allies’ strategy has become apparent. They are focusing upon Iraq’s oil industry, the Kurds, the Baghdad Airport and neighboring countries. The Americans and Israel on the other hand don’t appear to have any plan.
When the war started on February 28 Iran and its Iraqi allies the Resistance immediately hit what would become two of their main targets. They sent drones against the Baghdad Airport and Irbil City. Almost every single day since then the airport and the Kurds have been struck.
The Baghdad Airport has been attacked for years by pro-Iran groups for a number of reasons. First it is meant to send a signal to foreigners that Iraq is not safe since the airport is the main way they travel in and out of the country. Second it sends a defiant message to the government they cannot protect the capitol.
The Kurds have also been traditionally hit because they are considered the closest to the Americans. For instance, as the U.S. withdraws from Iraq its last base would be in Kurdistan because of its friendly relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government. They are being punished for this relationship.
On March 31 the Kurdistan Democratic Party claimed that Kurdistan had been hit 474 times during the war. It blamed the Iranian Revolutionary Guard for 179 of them and the Resistance for the remaining 295.
On March 5 the third leg of Iran’s strategy was revealed when the Rumaila oil field was attacked. Since then the oil industry has been assaulted in both the south and in Kurdistan. Most of the oil fields have been shut down or dramatically reduced production because of the war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz which was the main export route for the country. The attacks are meant to raise oil prices and pressure President Trump to end the war.
The final part of Tehran’s strategy is to carry out an asymmetrical war by going after the entire region. Almost every day the Resistance announces how many operations it conducted in Iraq and the Middle East. Few of those have actually been reported. A rare occasion was on March 23 when seven missiles were fired from western Ninewa province at a military base in northeast Syria. Damascus later complained about a series of attacks upon its troops along the Iraq border. On March 26 Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Jordan issued a joint statement demanding that Iraq control the Resistance because of attacks upon their territory.
Iran and the Resistance have been very successful in carrying out its strategy. More importantly, Baghdad, Washington and Jerusalem have been unable to stop them.
This is especially bad for the Iraqi government. It has struggle for years to control militias always claiming it has the upper hand and is in control but the war has exposed that as a lie. The Resistance is using its assets within the state to move its men and material throughout the country and carry out its operations. That same power means it is not being held responsible. There was a report for instance of a Federal Police officer working for Kataib Hezbollah who helped it get through checkpoints. When he and others were arrested they were eventually released because of political intervention. With the Resistance being part of the ruling Coordination Framework and the two contenders to be the next prime minister sitting PM Mohammed Sudani and Nuri al-Maliki both courting the same groups there is no real limit on what they can do.
On the other hand, the U.S. and Israel have followed no apparent plan. There have been two patterns. First, mostly members of the Resistance have been hit and all the attacks have occurred in central to northern Iraq. There have been none in the south where the Resistance has its base. That might be because going after these groups in urban centers in southern provinces could lead to civilian casualties. Western and northern Iraq are where the Resistance expanded into during the war with the Islamic State seizing control of security and carrying out a policy of Sunni cleansing. They are thus more exposed there and not embedded into the population making them easier targets.
That being said there appears to be no other patterns to the attacks. On March 13 the secretary general of Kataib Hezbollah was said to have been killed or wounded in an airstrike and three days later his son who was the group’s spokesman was also a fatality. That pointed to an escalation where the U.S. and Israel were aiming to eliminate the leadership of the Resistance. This would be a major step in degrading their capabilities since they would have to regroup after losing their commanders and also lesson their political power. However after those two incidents nothing else of that magnitude happened.
Kataib Hezbollah is also one of the leaders of the Resistance and has a sprawling military base in Babil’s Jurf al-Sakhr. That was the first target on the opening day of the war and has repeatedly been hit since then but these don’t appear to be anything but individual strikes. Heavy bombers or cruise missiles could be used to try to destroy the entire facility but that has not happened.
There are other areas that could be consistently hit but aren’t. The Qaim border crossing in Western Anbar for instance is controlled by the Resistance and is a major source of income as it imposes fees on vehicles and trade. Qaim has faced airstrikes but nothing consistent that would make the Resistance think about withdrawing and giving up their hold on the area.
Most of the airstrikes have also not caused many casualties. The Resistance has not been divulging all their losses but those that are reported are usually in the single digits. Again that doesn’t point to any kind of strategy to degrade or eliminate the Resistance.
Finally, the U.S. and Israel are not trying to stop the Resistance’s operations. There are known areas in the disputed territories for instance which the pro-Iran factions use to launch missiles and drones at Kurdistan. Surveillance of those areas could probably identify when groups set up trucks to launch these attacks and they could be eliminated but that is not happening either.
Overall, it seems like the U.S. and Israel have carried out a haphazard series of assaults upon Iraq. Their enemies on the other hand have helped degrade the country’s leading business oil, forced foreigners to flee, and put tremendous pressure upon the Kurds and the government. Like the war overall it doesn’t appear that Trump or Netanyahu had any plan on how to tackle Iraq.
War news for April 2 largely fit these patterns.
The U.S. Embassy warned of possible attacks by the Resistance in the next 24-48 hours and urged Americans to leave the country. The Iraqi Foreign Ministry took umbrage with the statement released because it accused the government of not being able to control armed groups. The Ministry claimed the Resistance are non-state actors outside the authority of Baghdad but in reality they are all part of the Hashd al-Shaabi which is an official part of the Iraqi Security Forces. Again, the war is exposing the inherit weakness of the Iraqi state.
The Sandar Group told the media that the multiple drone attack upon its oil storage facility in Irbil the day before cost around $5 million.
As happens almost every day now the Baghdad Airport faced two drones that crashed.
The Resistance also attacked the rulers of Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE for supporting the war against Iran. It demanded that Baghdad close the border crossing with Jordan and stop trucking oil there. To make its point a drone crashed at the Trebil border crossing with Jordan in Anbar. This is another attempt to destabilize the region to show the U.S. and Israel the cost of the war is going to be spread throughout the Middle East.
The Hashd reported that on April 1 an airstrike upon the Turkmen 53rd Hashd Brigade in Tal Afar killed three. This is another example of the few casualties that U.S. and Israeli strikes are causing.
During the day Sayid al-Shuhada’s 14th Hashd Brigade was hit twice by jets in Ninewa. The Shabak 30th Hashd Brigade was bombed in the Bartella district of the same province. The 58th Hashd Brigade in Qayara, Ninewa was struck for the first time. The headquarters of the Tribal 57th Hashd Brigade was bombed in Haditha, Anbar.
Iraqi Groups Attacked During Iran War
33rd Hashd Brigade x1 times
57th Tribal Hashd Brigade x1
58th Hashd Brigade x1 times
59th Tribal Hashd Brigade x1 times
79th Hashd Brigade x1 times
Ansar Allah x1 times
Ansar Allah’s 19th Hashd Brigade x2 times
Asaib Ahl Al-Haq x5 times
Asaib Ahl Al-Haq’s 41st Hashd Brigade x1 times
Babylon Brigades’ 50th Hashd Brigade x2 times
Badr Brigade x2 times
Badr Brigade’s 21st Hashd Brigade x1 times
Badr Brigade’s 27th Hashd Brigade x1 times
Harakat al-Nujaba’s 12th Hashd Brigade x2 times
Imam Ali Brigades x5 times
Imam Ali Brigades’ 6th Hashd Brigade x3 times
Imam Ali Brigades’ 40th Hashd Brigade x3 times
Kataib Hezbollah x17 times
Kataib Hezbollahs’ 45th Hashd Brigade x3 times
Kataib Sayid al-Shuhada x3 times
Kataib Sayid al-Shuhada’s 14th Hashd Brigade x3 times
Kataib Sayid al-Shuhada’s 30th Hashd Brigade x1 times
Kataib al-Tayar al-Risali’s 31st Hashd Brigade x6 times
Liwa al-Tufuf 13th Hashd Brigade x2 times
Quwat al-Shaheed al-Sadr 15th Hashd Brigade x1 times
Saraya al-Khorasani Brigade x2 times
Saraya al-Khorasani Brigade’s 18th Hashd Brigade x2 times
Shabak 30th Hashd Brigade x10 times
Turkmen 16th Hashd Brigade x3 times
Turkmen 52nd Hashd Brigade x4 times
Turkmen 53rd Hashd Brigade x1 times
Turkmen 61st Hashd Brigade x1 times
Turkmen 63rd Hashd Brigade x3 times
SOURCE
Bas News, “Iraq Rejects US Claim, Says Militias Operate Outside State Authority,” 4/2/26
Kurdistan 24, “PMF Unit in Nineveh Targeted by Two Airstrikes Within 24 Hours,” 4/2/26
- “Sardar Group Says Drone Attack on Civilian Oil Depot in Erbil Caused Estimated $5 Million in Losses,” 4/2/26
- “U.S. Warns Iran-Aligned Militias May Plan Attacks in Central Baghdad within 24 to 48 Hours,” 4/2/26
Shafaq News, “Airstrike targets 57th Brigade of the Popular Mobilization Forces in Anbar,” 4/2/26
- “Airstrike targets Popular Mobilization Forces headquarters in Nineveh Plain,” 4/2/26
- “A drone crashed at the Trebil border crossing in Anbar,” 4/2/26
- “The Iraqi resistance calls for punishing Jordan, attacks Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and excludes Qatar,” 4/2/26
- “The Popular Mobilization Forces announce that the death toll from the “Tal Afar bombing” has risen to 3,” 4/1/26
- “Two drones crashed at the diplomatic support headquarters at Baghdad Airport,” 4/2/26
Al Sumaria, "The Popular Mobilization Forces announce that their headquarters in Qayarah was subjected to an air attack and confirm that there were no casualties,” 4/2/26
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