Violence In Iraq, May 2016

Iraq experienced a very violent month in May 2016. That was due to two factors. First, the Islamic State was in the midst of its spring offensive. That meant a large number of mass casualty bombings across the country. On the other hand, the government was on the offensive in Anbar and Ninewa leading to a large number of counter attacks by the militants. Together that meant there were a lot of casualties during the month.

There were 645 reported incidents in Iraq in May 2016. That was up from 599 in April, but on par with March’s 665. When averaged out there were 19.2 attacks per day in January, 18.9 in February, 21.4 in March, 19.9 in April, and 20.8 in May. That showed the spring offensive started in March and has continued for three months total so far. Since Ramadan is going to start in June, which is another period when the militants pick up their operations Iraq may not see a dip in violence for several more weeks.

Avg. # of Attacks Per Day in Iraq 2016

Jan 19.2

Feb 18.9

Mar 21.4

Apr 19.9

May 20.8

There were 1,300 reported deaths and 2,409 wounded during the month. The real numbers are much higher as the government has been suppressing its losses. Those figures compared to 1,214 killed counted by Iraq Body Count, which does not include soldiers, and 867 dead and 1,459 wounded recorded by the United Nations that did not have Anbar. The total number of casualties recorded by Musings On Iraq, 3,709 in May was the most since January’s 3,773.

The 1,300 fatalities were made up of 1 U.S. soldier, 1 ex-Governor Nujafi volunteer, 2 Iranian Basij, 13 Sahwa, 18 Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) fighters, 122 Hashd, 132 ISF, and 981 civilians. The 2,408 wounded consisted of 1 U.S. soldier, 31 Sahwa, 86 Peshmerga, 131 Hashd, 186 ISF, and 1,973 civilians.

Baghdad is facing a large increase in terrorist attacks by the Islamic State leading it to be the deadliest province in the country. There were 628 deaths there in May. There were another 239 killed in Ninewa, 154 in Anbar, 85 in Diyala, 68 in Salahaddin, 62 in Kirkuk, 38 in Muthanna, 18 in Kurdistan, and 8 in Babil.

On the main battlefront in Anbar, the number of incidents went up from April to May, but the casualties went down, likely due to government censorship. There were 92 attacks recorded in April compared to 116 in May. Despite that increase number of dead in April was 226 versus 154 in May. In April 113 members of the Iraqi Security Forces were reported killed in the government’s drive west from Ramadi to the Jordanian border and then in Fallujah. In May only 48 ISF deaths were in the press. Although there were 1 suicide bomber, 2 car bombs, and 5 suicide car bombs the main driver of casualties amongst the joint forces were infantry counter attacks by IS. Another factor was the fact that the press began to record the effects of government shelling on Fallujah again. Those used to be routine, but then completely stopped in the second half of 2015. As the government tried to free the city the media started mentioning these incidents once again. During the month the papers had 54 civilians killed and 107 wounded in May. Two of those deaths were Iranian Basij, which are operating under the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force in assisting the pro-Tehran Hashd in the towns around Fallujah.

Attacks on Baghdad have skyrocketed in 2016 as IS has begun shifting to more terrorist attacks. There were 283 incidents in the capital in May leading to 628 dead and 1,478 wounded. The 151 IEDs and 30 sticky bombs are unfortunately part of the day to day routine of the province hitting shops, markets and other areas known for public gatherings. Last month however, IS also set off 1 motorcycle bomb, 12 suicide bombers, and 13 car bombs adding to the carnage. Together those accounted for 274 fatalities and 538 injuries. This was one sign that the Islamic State was still carrying out its spring campaign as it focused upon mass casualty bombings on civilian areas.

Diyala was one province where IS has also started picking up its operations. There used to be less than one incident there per day, but now there are nearly two. May was no exception with 58 attacks recorded there leading to 84 dead and 198 wounded. Many of these were shootings and IEDs, but there were also one car bomb and 2 suicide bombings, and another car bomb was discovered and dismantled before it could go off. These attacks accounted for most of the casualties in the governorate with 36 killed and 149 injured.

Similarly violence has been going up in Kirkuk as well. That was largely due to IS counter attacks upon the Bashir area, which was recently freed. The insurgents launched a wave of mortar, rocket, and infantry attacks upon the district in response. That also included claims of IS using chemical munitions. In total, there were 60 incidents, 68 killed and 115 wounded.

Turkey has been bombing PKK positions in northern Kurdistan almost every week now. Rarely are any casualties mentioned from these raids. In May however 18 PKK fighters were allegedly killed in an air strike.

Another part of the militants’ spring offensive has been to launch car bombs into the south once more. In May two car bombs went off in Muthanna and another was dismantled. That is the first time it had been hit by a vehicle bomb since April 2014. In April 2016 Basra was hit by a car bomb and a suicide bomber attacked Dhi Qar. That’s a troubling trend, because it shows that IS’s infiltration networks are operating across the country and can move car bombs nearly anywhere.

Incidents remained high in Ninewa as the peshmerga launched a new operation and the army’s offensive in Makhmour petered out. Both of those actions led to a large number of IS counter attacks. There were a total of 78 incidents there with 239 dead and 151 wounded. Of those, the Peshmerga accounted for 26 of the former and 80 of the latter. One U.S. soldier was also reportedly killed and another wounded supporting the Kurdish forces. IS executed another 179 civilians mostly in the Mosul area.

Salahaddin has been very quiet since the liberation of Baiji, but in May things picked up with some suicide and car bombings. There was one vehicle bomb and 8 suicide bombers in the month. Suleiman Bek was hit by two car bombs, the first major violence there in months. Balad and Dujail were also hit. Those were the main reasons why there were 68 fatalities and 115 wounded there.

As the spring offensive got underway the number of car bombs went up in the country. In February there were only 9 successful bombings. That quickly rose to 18 in March, 13 in April, and 29 in May. Last month there was 1 in Diyala, 1 in Salahaddin, 2 in Muthanna, 5 in Ninewa, 7 in Anbar, and 13 in Baghdad. Some of these were aimed at the security forces, but more than half were terrorist bombings meant to kill and hurt as many civilians as possible.

Car Bombs In Iraq 2016

Jan 36

Feb 9

Mar 18

Apr 13

May 29

Violence In Iraq 2015-16

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
JAN	911	2,656	3,032 + 150
FEB	730	2,345	2,366
MAR	820	2,665	2,529
APR	751	2,753	2,621
MAY	674	2,565 + 1,499	1,952 + 646
JUN	708	2,153 + 405	2,174
JUL	688	2,716	3,198 + 4,024
AUG	684	2,440 + 760	1,777
SEP	649	1,731	1,668 + 3,003
OCT	589	1,144	1,555
NOV	530	1,174	1,455 + 124 + 1,322
DEC	553	1,155	1,252 + 5,920
Jan 1-7	150	808	421
Jan 8-14	140	436	417
Jan 15-21	135	275	227
Jan 22-28	132	392	322
Jan 29-31	41	81	334
JAN	598	2,052	1,721
Feb 1-7	146	575	313
Feb 8-14	119	146	323
Feb 15-21	130	225	239
Feb 22-29	153	371	690
FEB	549	1,281	1,566
Mar 1-7	183	321	478
Mar 8-14	168	408	415
Mar 15-21	130	349	409
Mar 22-28	135	213	420
Mar 29-31	49	172	121
MAR	665	1,463	1,843
Apr 1-7	144	239	444
Apr 8-14	141	271	391
Apr 15-21	124	436	242
Apr 22-28	160	413	524
Apr 29-30	30	61	121
APR	599	1,420	1,722
May 1-7	160	325	420
May 8-14	141	311	674
May 15-21	121	349	604
May 22-28	142	200	397
May 29-31	81	115	313
MAY	645	1,300	2,409

Security By Province May, 2016

Province	Incidents
Anbar	116 Incidents 154 Killed: 2 Iranian Basij, 5 Sahwa, 47 Hashd, 48 ISF, 52 Civilians 260 Wounded: 17 Hashd, 19 Sahwa, 41 ISF, 183 Civilians 38 Shootings 7 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 5 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Car Bombs 8 Mortars 3 Rockets 130 Suicide Bombers Killed 68 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 49 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	10 Incidents 8 Killed: 8 Civilians 25 Wounded: 6 Hashd, 19 Civilians 3 Shootings 9 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber Killed
Baghdad	283 Incidents 628 Killed: 8 Sahwa, 15 Hashd, 67 ISF, 538 Civilians 1,478 Wounded: 12 Sahwa, 39 Hashd, 119 ISF, 1,308 Civilians 62 Shootings 151 IEDs 30 Sticky Bombs 12 Suicide Bombers 1 Motorcycle Bomb 10 Suicide Car Bombs 3 Car Bombs 4 Mortars 17 Suicide Bombers Killed 2 Car Bombs Dismantled
Basra	3 Incidents 4 Wounded: 1 Civilian, 3 Hashd 1 Shooting 1 Grenade
Dhi Qar	1 Incident 1 IED
Diyala	58 Incidents 85 Killed: 3 Hashd, 7 ISF, 75 Civilians 198 Wounded: 8 Hashd, 11 ISF, 179 Civilians 26 Shootings 14 IEDs 2 Sticky Bombs 2 Suicide Bombers 1 Car Bomb 8 Mortars 1 Grenade 1 Car Bomb Dismantled
Kirkuk	60 Incidents 62 Killed: 1 ISF, 4 Peshmerga, 25 Civilians, 32 Hashd 91 Wounded: 3 ISF, 6 Peshmerga, 26 Hashd, 56 Civilians 19 Shootings 20 IEDs 2 Mortars 10 Rockets 1 Suicide Bomber Killed 6 Car Bombs Destroyed
KRG	1 Incident 18 Killed: 18 PKK 1 Turkish Air Strike
Muthanna	2 Incidents 38 Killed: 38 Civilians 86 Wounded: 86 Civilians 2 Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb
Ninewa	78 Incidents 239 Killed: 1 ISF, 1 US Soldier, 1 Volunteer, 11 Hashd, 26 Peshmerga, 199 Civilians 151 Wounded: 1 US Soldier, 9 ISF, 61 Civilians, 80 Peshmerga 47 Shootings 41 IEDs 11 Suicide Bombers 5 Car Bombs 8 Mortars 2 Rockets 44 Suicide Bombers Killed 23 Car Bombs Destroyed
Qadisiyah	1 Incident 1 Gunfire
Salahaddin	32 Incidents 68 Killed: 8 ISF, 14 Hashd, 46 Civilians 115 Wounded: 3 ISF, 32 Hashd, 80 Civilians 20 Shootings 5 IEDs 8 Suicide Bombers 1 Car Bomb 1 Grenade 4 Car Bombs Destroyed

Car Bombs In Iraq May, 2016

Date	Car Bombs	Dead	Wounded
May 1	Samawa x2, Muthanna Albu Hussein & West of Hit, Anbar – 3 destroyed	38	86
May 2	Sadiya, Baghdad Hit, Dabiya & Satamiya, Anbar – 4 destroyed Alas & Ajeel, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed	19	44
May 3	Bashiqa x2 & Tel Skuf, Ninewa South of Fallujah, Anbar – 1 destroyed Tel Skuf, Ninewa – 2 destroyed	1	2
May 4	Amiriya Fallujah, Anbar – 8 destroyed Tel al-Gol, Ninewa – 1 destroyed Mashak, Salahaddin – 2 destroyed
May 5	Thar Thar, Anbar – 1 destroyed Bashir, Kirkuk 1 destroyed Kharaib, Ninewa – 2 destroyed
May 6	Radwaniya, Baghdad	3	5
May 7	Thar Thar, Anbar – 7 destroyed
Totals	7 – 33 Destroyed	61	137
May 8	Salam, Anbar – 3 destroyed
May 9	Baquba, Diyala Albu Shihab, Anbar – 1 destroyed	16	54
May 10	Thar Thar, Anbar – 1 destroyed
May 11	Jamiya, Kadhimiya, Sadr City, Baghdad Jeraishi, Anbar – 2 destroyed	103	170
May 12	Jeraishi, Anbar Albu Aetha, Albu Diab, Albu Faraj, Albu Veab, Anbar – 19 destroyed Baiji, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed	17
May 13	Albu Aetha, Dwylih, Garma, Anbar – 10 destroyed
May 14	Albu Hayat, Anbar Albu Aetha & Barwana, Anbar – 2 destroyed	2	6
Totals	6 – 39 Destroyed	138	230
May 15	Latifiya & Taji x3, Baghdad Baghdadi, Anbar – 2 destroyed	21	56
May 16	Rutba, Anbar – 3 destroyed Khalis, Diyala – 1 destroyed
May 17	Rutba, Anbar Rasheed & Sadr City, Baghdad Barwana, Anbar – 3 destroyed Amil & Zafaraniya, Baghdad – 2 destroyed	47	99
May 18	Aski Mosul, Ninewa – 3 destroyed
May 19	?, Anbar – 3 destroyed
May 20	Southeast of Fallujah, Anbar	1
May 21
Totals	8 – 17 Destroyed	69	155
May 22	Suleiman Bek, Salahaddin	2	11
May 23	Fallujah & Garma-Sjar Road, Anbar – 8 destroyed
May 24	Albu Jassim, Albu Kanafar, Albu Shijil, east of Fallujah, Lahib, Anbar – 9 destroyed
May 25	Sjar, Anbar – 2 destroyed
May 26	Albu Hamad & Albu Shijil, Anbar – 6 destroyed
May 27	South of Fallujah & Sjar, Anbar – 3 destroyed Makhmour, Ninewa – 2 destroyed
May 28	Amiriya Fallujah & Hasa, Anbar – 4 destroyed
Totals	1 – 34 Destroyed	2	11
May 29	Amiriyah Fallujah x2 & Garma, Anbar Mufti x2, Ninewa Sjar, Anbar – 5 destroyed Western Kirkuk, Kirkuk – 4 destroyed	7	20
May 30	Shaab & Tarmiya, Baghdad Mufti, Ninewa – 14 destroyed	22	44
May 31	Niamiya & Saqlawiya, Anbar – 7 destroyed ?, Muthanna – 1 destroyed
MAY	29 – 49 Destroyed	299	597

Iran’s Propaganda Work In Iraq Interview With Tel Aviv Univ’s Dr Raz Zimmt

As the battle for Fallujah in Iraq continues the Iranians are attempting to take credit for the operation. Pictures have been posted in the press and on social media of Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ General Qasim Suleimani in the area and consulting with elements of the Hashd. This is part of Tehran’s continuing propaganda operation to portray itself as the savior of Iraq and the main opponent of the Islamic State. To discuss this campaign is Dr Raz Zimmt a research fellow at the Alliance Center for Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University and the Forum for Regional Thinking and editor of “Spotlight on Iran.” He recently wrote about this topic in “Iranian Participation in the Liberation of Fallujah” for the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center. He can be followed on Twitter at @RZimmt

Musings On Iraq In The News

I was cited by Michael Knights in “The Liberation of Fallujah, the Fall of Baghdad” in Foreign Policy, in "The Battle of Fallujah Matters. Again." by Tobin Harshaw for Bloomberg, and by the Yazidi International Organization. 

Poor Planning And War Led To Huge Increase In Govt Jobs & Pensions In Iraq

A chart provided by Moody’s Investors Service shows a huge growth in public outlaws for civil workers and pensions from 2014 to 2015. In 2014 salaries and pensions for government workers made up 46% of state spending according to the International Monetary Fund. By 2015 that percentage had increased to 60%. Part of that was due to the war as Baghdad took on paying the Hashd al-Shaabi forces to fight the Islamic State. It was also due to poor planning as the parliament and ruling parties have consistently talked about increasing the number of civil employees to fight unemployment and also to increase patronage networks to stay in power. The main losers in this decision was non-oil investment, which went from 17% of expenditures in 2014 to 10%, and the oil sector that went from 16% to 12%.

Source: Moody's

This large expansion in payments could not have come at a worse time for the Iraqi economy. In 2014 oil prices were plummeting from oversupply on the international market. In January 2014 a barrel of Iraqi crude was selling for $102.37. By December it was down to $56.59 per barrel. That decline continued into 2015 reaching $29.84 per barrel in December. Iraq, which relies upon oil exports for around 90% of its revenue, went from earning an average of $7.0 billion a month in 2014 to $4.094 billion in 2015. It needs roughly $4 billion a month just to pay those salaries and pensions. In August 2015 it dipped below that level when it only made $3.925 billion, and it has been lower ever since then.

That is putting a huge strain on the nation’s finances causing it to raid its foreign reserves, and borrow from domestic banks. By the end of the year the government is expected to have a $17 billion deficit. It has recently gone to the IMF and gotten a three year deal for $5.4 billion in loans and is hoping to get more assistance from other international groups as well as selling bonds. In the meantime some ministries have not been paying their workers, while Prime Minister Haidar Abadi got a marginal 3% pay cut for civil workers. Part of the IMF deal includes Baghdad cutting its public spending, but that’s likely to come in other sectors other than jobs and pensions since those are so sensitive with the public, which is use to a large public sector, and for the elite that relies upon them to maintain their base.

SOURCES

Chmaytelli, Maher, “Exclusive: Iraq plans $2 billion bond sale end 2016 as aid lowers borrowing costs,” Reuters, 6/3/16

Al-Khalidi, Suleiman, “IMF agrees $5.4 billion standby loan for Iraq,” Reuters, 5/19/16

Moody’s Investors Service, “Iraq’s Stand-By Arrangement with the IMF Will Help Liquidity,” 5/23/16

Solomon, Erika, “Iraq’s ability to rebuild is threatened on three fronts,” Financial Times, 4/3/16

Zeed, Adnan Abu, “Iraqi workers protest for wage payment,” Al Monitor, 6/10/15

VIDEOS: Voices of the Iraq's Farhud

Saddam’s View Of Iraq’s 1991 Uprising

“The Americans wanted to hurt Iraq by hurting its army. Its army would get destroyed. Such an opportunity was to be … taken advantage of by all the greedy people or the hateful ones or those who had beforehand evil intentions against Iraq, whether they were from outside or inside Iraq. The entire siege, the air bombardment until the land attack began, they were all methods to create the appropriate environment for the operation that took place.”

- Saddam Hussein, April 3, 1991

Starting in March 1991 southern and northern Iraq rose up in rebellion against Saddam Hussein. The Iraqi army had just been defeated in the Gulf War and angry soldiers in the south started a revolt in Basra that quickly spread across the entire south. A few days later the Kurds begin rising up as well seizing the major cities in the north including Kirkuk. By the start of April the government had recovered and most of the Kurds were fleeing to Turkey and Iran, while southerners were driven into Iran and the marshes of Basra and Maysan.

To Saddam this was all part of a plan by the Americans to undermine his rule. On April 3, as the last vestiges of the uprising were being put down in Sulaymaniya, Saddam met with his advisers. He called the revolt “The Page of Treason and Treachery,” and claimed that it was a result of the Gulf War. He declared that the war was really meant to destroy the Iraqi armed forces so that his opponents could take advantage of the situation. He blamed groups based in Iran, probably referring to the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq that deployed its Badr Brigade during the period, for starting the fighting in Basra. At the same time, he did acknowledge that there were opponents in the south, but they didn’t want a rebellion. According to him that idea was completely sprung by outsiders. Saddam had a different view of the Kurds. There he said the Kurdish parties wanted revenge for being defeated in the Anfal campaign during the 1980s. The meeting revealed some of the thinking of Saddam. The 1991 revolt solidified his belief that the main threat to his rule came from domestic forces, namely the Shiite Islamists and the Kurds. At the same time, his other major nemesis was Iran, which he had painted as the historical foe of Iraq since the Iran-Iraq War. Together these two groups were consistently plotting against him, and trying to take him down. Saddam saw the Gulf War through this prism, and believed the Americans were simply working with his longtime opponents, completely missing Washington’s response to the invasion of Kuwait.

SOURCES

Woods, Kevin, Palkki, David, and Stout, Mark, The Saddam Tapes, Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, Sao Paulo, Delhi, Tokyo, Mexico City: Cambridge University Press, 2011