Mosul Campaign Day 71, Dec 26, 2016

December 25 the Golden Division attacked the Quds district on the outskirts of east Mosul. On December 26 the Islamic State counter attacked there with three car bombs all of which were destroyed. This was the first movement by the Iraqi forces (ISF) in east Mosul in several days after they were paused to recover from two months of heavy fighting.

IS was also said to be changing their tactics inside the city. The group has been relentlessly shelling the eastern half of Mosul. Mortar fire for example, killed two civilians on December 26. Their firing positions however have been targeted by the U.S. led Coalition and Iraqi forces. The militants were now said to be mounting mortars on vehicles so that they could fire, quickly change positions and then fire again before they were spotted and destroyed.

The last two days air strikes have been blamed for civilian casualties inside Mosul. On December 26 seven civilians were wounded in one such incident. It can only be speculated whether this was done by the U.S. led Coalition or the Iraqis.

All of the rest of the news was on plans for the new Mosul campaign. Reuters said that U.S. troops would be inside Mosul itself to provide front line targeting for air strikes and advice to the Iraqi forces. It along with Iraqi News also noted that more troops and police were moving into eastern Mosul to reinforce the units already there, while Al Alam reported that the ISF were fortifying their positions in northern and eastern Mosul.

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, “Commander: Military reinforcements arrive in Mosul,” Iraqi News, 12/26/16

Al Alam, “Over 70 ISIS Terrorists Killed by Iraqi Forces Counter Attack in Mosul,” 12/26/16

Al Forat, "The destruction of three car bombs left coast Mosul," 12/26/16

Kalin, Stephen, “Exclusive: Fresh advance in east Mosul to begin within days – U.S. commander,” Reuters, 12/26/16

Al Maalomah, "The death of two civilians, shelling by Daesh criminals central Mosul," 12/26/16

Rudaw, “US general praises ‘remarkably disciplined’ Shiite forces,” 12/26/16

Shafaaq News, "Wounding seven civilians from one family in air strike east Mosul," 12/26/16

Mosul Campaign Day 70, Dec 25, 2016

There was heavy fighting across east Mosul for the last two days. On December 24 there were clashes in eight neighborhoods. December 25 there were attacks in five areas of the city that included at least four car bombs. The Islamic State also carried out operations against the Hashd west of Tal Afar and in the south in Albu Saif with another two vehicle bombs being destroyed. The Golden Division also went on the offensive for the first time in almost a week attacking the Quds neighborhood that had been freed twice before. Other units were clearing freed areas of IEDs. The U.S. also shelled Mosul for the first time. Finally, an air strike was blamed for killing 20 civilians and wounding 55 in the western half of the city.

There was continued talk of the new phase of the Mosul campaign in Iraqi papers. General Fazi Barwari of the Golden Division made the bold prediction that all of east Mosul would be freed by the end of the year. Only about 40% of that section of the city is currently occupied so claiming they would go through the remaining 60% in six days is a little unbelievable. A member of the Hasdh al-Watani, run by former Ninewa governor Atheel Nujafi and backed by Turkey, told the press that the new campaign was supposed to start on December 24, but bad weather pushed it back.

Ninewa officials criticized a recent push on the northern front. On December 23 the 16^th Division took the police academy, the vehicle registration building and a cement factory. Former governor Nujafi and members of his Hashd al-Watani claimed the army shelled a neighborhood that was already freed during the operation causing civilian casualties.

SOURCES

Al Alam, "2 Senior ISIL Commanders Killed in Iraqi Missile Strikes on Mosul," 12/25/16

- "Bombings, Mortar Attacks Claim 10 Lives Across Iraq," 12/24/16

Iraq Oil Report, "Inside Mosul: Nov. 1, 2016," 11/1/16

Al Maalomah, "Information published by Ninewa, we are coming on daily operations," 12/25/16

Al Mada, “Changes to Mosul plan call for the use of the popular crowd and 5 thousand U.S. troops,” 12/25/16

Al Masalah, "Killed 21 terrorists and foiled Daesh attack west of Tal Afar," 12/25/16

NINA, "Iraqi Forces Repel Sevearl Attacks To Daesh On Zaytoon And Police Academy In Mosul," 12/24/16

- "Lt. Gen. Saadi Announces Starting The Second Phase Of Liberating Remaining Neighborhoods In Mosul," 12/24/16

Rudaw, “Iraqi troops gearing up for second phase of Mosul offensive,” 12/25/16

Sotaliraq, "Iraqi forces stormed Quds east Mosul," 12/25/16

- "Killing 20 civilians in an air strike on popular market in western Mosul," 12/25/16

Al Sumaria, "A break out of fighting by Counter Terrorism in Jerusalem neighborhood In Left Coast Mosul," 12/25/16

Xinhua, "Iraqi forces free more districts in eastern Mosul," 11/4/16

Mosul Campaign Day 69, Dec 24, 2016

There was some movement on the eastern and western fronts. The Iraqi forces (ISF) freed two towns in the east, while the Hashd liberated a village in the west. The Ghazlani base in southern Mosul continued to be shelled as well. Some Iraqi papers claimed this showed that the Mosul campaign was back in action, but as of now this appeared to be more like minor clearing operations. Otherwise, the Golden Division was removing IEDs from the Zuhur neighborhood in east Mosul, and the Hashd was still working on securing the roads around Tal Afar. Members of Kataib Hezbollah and the Imam Ali Brigades said that bad weather was slowing their operations. A bigger factor was that they are in a holding position around Tal Afar because the army and police have not organized any forces to take the town itself.  

The Iraqi forces continued to plan for the next phase of the operation. They are being reinforced in the east. That included U.S. forces moving up towards the front. American Special Forces have been advising the ISF and calling in air strikes. U.S. apache helicopters and artillery have been supporting the advance as well, along with other Coalition air forces. In one day for instance, a reporter from Foreign Policy noted there were 43 planes from 9 countries over Mosul carrying out various missions from air strikes to jamming communications to re-fueling.

The Islamic State continued to force people from their homes in east Mosul. Al Alam reported that around 250 families were told to leave the Jazir area. IS has been trying to get people to follow their retreat to be used as human shields, while converting the abandoned buildings into firing positions.

On a positive note, a Christmas mass was held in the town of Bartella for the first time in two years. The town was taken by the Islamic State in 2014 and freed in October 2016. Unfortunately the town remains mostly abandoned and destroyed. Almost all the people that attended the service travelled there from Kurdistan where they have been staying since the insurgents swept through the area.

SOURCES

Al Alam, "Bombings, Mortar Attacks Claim 10 Lives Across Iraq," 12/24/16

Face Iraq, “Sources: US ground forces and Apache helicopters in northern Mosul front with the resumption of fighting,” 12/24/16

Al Forat, "Nineveh Operaions: Progress on northern axis and control of road south of Tal Afar to Sinjar, west Mosul,' 12/24/16

Al Maalomah, “Counter-terrorism forces destroying explosives left by Daesh criminals in east Mosul,” 12/24/16

- “Hezbollah Brigades and Imam Ali Brigade reveal reasons for the slowdown of operation on the western axis,” 12/24/16

MacDiarmid, Campbell, “The Battle to Retake Mosul Is Stalemated,” Foreign Policy, 12/22/16

Rudaw, “Christian town east of Mosul celebrates first Christmas post-ISIS,” 12/24/16

Mosul Campaign Day 68, Dec. 23, 2016

There was movement on the northern front for the first time since the start of the month. The Iraqi forces (ISF) cleared the Police Academy and vehicle registration directorate building north of Mosul. The ISF had not done anything in that sector since December 5 when three villages were freed. Northern forces were supposed to organize to take the town of Tal Afar in the west and attack the northern neighborhoods of Mosul in November, but have been stalled. Some units have been shifted to east Mosul instead in recent weeks.

The Iraqi air force dropped more flyers over Mosul. This was a mix of official statements by the government and letters written by citizens. The official ones told people to be patient and that victory was close. The others were personal letters of support for the residents of the city. The ISF has leafleted over Mosul several times before.

Iraqi commanders continue to give contradictory statements about the state of the campaign. General Abdul al-Assadi from the Golden Division told the media that the ISF was planning for a new push to free the rest of eastern Mosul. The commander of Iraqi ground forces on the other hand, General Riyadh Tawfiq claimed there was no pause, but then said in a few days there would be new operations. Due to stiff Islamic State resistance, exhaustion, casualties, lack of supporting troops, police, and Hashd to hold areas freed, and apparent reluctance by some officers to move forward, all fronts have largely halted although fighting continues.

The New York Times featured an article about the future for Christians in Ninewa. Several Christian towns such as Qaraqosh and Bartella have been freed during the campaign, but the piece questioned how many people would return to them. Christian militias who secured some of those areas said they were still afraid of Islamic State attacks, and most villages were destroyed. Since 2003 the Christian population of Iraq has been devastated due to violence. IS’s take over of most of Ninewa in 2014 was just the latest time they were targeted and forced to flee their homes. Many have resettled in other parts of the country or left Iraq overall and those trends only look to be continuing.

Finally the Irbil health directorate provided new information on casualties in Iraq. Many of the wounded from the fighting in east Mosul are sent to that city’s health facilities. With the new data a total of 4,153 people have been killed in Ninewa since the start of the Mosul campaign on October 17, and 7,908 wounded. Roughly 65% of the dead were the result of Islamic State executions, 2,717. When the operation started, the group was forcing people from southern villages to retreat with them towards Mosul to be used as human shields. Later the group separated the men, especially former members of the security forces and carried out mass shootings. Another 247 people have lost their lives and 156 wounded in Coalition air strikes. The real figures are higher due to government censorship and lack of access to the frontlines and areas held by the Islamic State.

Mosul Campaign Casualties 10/17/16-12/22/16

4,153 Killed

1 U.S. Sailor, 1 Hashd al-Watani, 2 Kurd CT, 4 ISF, 11 Police, 65 Peshmerga, 82 Hashd, 189 Soldiers, 3,798 Civilians

7,908 Wounded

2 Hashd al-Watani, 4 Police, 59 Hashd, 253 Peshmerga, 353 ISF, 446 Soldiers, 6,791 Civilians

2,717 Executed by the Islamic State

247 civilians killed, 156 wounded by Coalition air strikes

SOURCES

Kalin, Stephen, “U.S. forces embedding more to help Iraqis retake Mosul – commander,” Reuters, 12/23/16

Al Maalomah, "Foiled suicide attack In Qayyarah," 12/23/16

- "Freed the Police Academy and Directorate of Vehicle Registration north of Mosul," 12/24/16

- "Iraqi aircraft destroyed car bomb targeting federal police southwest of Mosul," 12/23/16

NINA, “Commander of the anti-terrorism device: The next few days will witness the announcement of the liberation of left coast entirely,” 12/22/16

- “Commander of the ground troops confirms from Karbala: No stop of military operations in Mosul,” 12/22/16

Ponomarev, Sergey and Arango, Tim, “For Liberated Iraqi Christians, Still a Bleak Christmas,” New York Times, 12/23/16

Rudaw, “Iraqis send four million letters of love and support to people of Mosul,” 12/23/16

- “UPDATED: Tens of civilians killed in triple ISIS car bomb east of Mosul,” 12/22/16

Sotaliraq, "Killing and wounding 18 civilians shelled by Daesh east Mosul," 12/23/16

- "Security forces advancing on police academy north of Mosul," 12/23/16

Mosul Campaign Day 67, Dec 22, 2016

Almost all the combat news on December 22 from the Mosul campaign originated with the Islamic State. Three suicide car bombs hit a market in Gogjali, an east Mosul suburb, which left 30 dead and 60 wounded. Mortar fire also killed 11 in east Mosul, including four aid workers. The Golden Division was involved in heavy clashes in the Tamim neighborhood, which has been cleared twice before. The Federal Police continued its shelling of the Ghazlani camp in south Mosul. Finally, the insurgents attempted to break the encirclement of Tal Afar to the west, but the Hashd turned it back. The Mosul operation is currently in a pause. The eastern forces are being reinforced and re-supplied before they re-start their push into the city. The northern and southern fronts have been stalled for a month a half because they didn’t have police or local Hashd units to hold most of the ground they took. Some of the units that did show up were not up to the task requiring the army to stay in place and clear and hold the areas they had taken. Some units also reportedly did not want to enter Mosul afraid of the heavy casualties they might take. In the west, the Hashd were taking towns around Tal Afar but the army and police haven’t organized any forces to take the town itself. That left almost all the heavy fighting in the east and the Golden Division supported by some army brigades. Now that front is at a standstill as well with fighting over areas already entered. More army and police units are now being shifted to their sector to back them up, and a southern thrust at Mosul is supposed to be in the making as well.

The slow down in operations is leading some Hashd to call for their participation in the urban fighting. A Hashd spokesman and the secretary general of the Hezbollah al-Nujaba were both quoted as saying that the Hashd should enter Mosul. The Iraqi government wanted the Iraqi forces to free the city because it was not only better suited for urban warfare, but it could also help win over the population to Baghdad. As a result an agreement was made to keep the Hashd out. With the fighting dragging on and heavy casualties there will be increasingly pressure from some Hashd to join in despite the deal.

Inside Mosul the Islamists were said to be destroying and looting parts of the Mosul University as well as continuing with the practice of forcing people out of their homes to turn their areas into combat zones. The school used to be one of Iraq’s best higher learning institutions, but now IS is blowing parts of it up as it has done in other sections of the city. Meanwhile in Rabia neighborhood the militants were forcing people to leave for the western side of the city. Their homes will likely be converted into battle positions.

More stories came out on the cost of the Mosul operation. The West Irbil Emergency Hospital told the Associated Press that on days of heavy fighting they could see up to 100 patients. Rudaw quoted the head of the Irbil Health Department that 7,595 people had been treated in the city’s hospitals since the start of the Mosul campaign in the middle of October. That was 3,000 more than had previously been mentioned in the media. Overall that means that roughly 12,000 people have been killed and wounded in Ninewa so far.

Finally, the number of displaced is about to pass the 110,000 mark by next week. The International Organization for Migration’s latest fact sheet showed that the number of people registered with the government or aid groups climbed from 99,394 on December 16 to 108,625 by December 22. During that time span around 1,000 people were fleeing their homes and seeking out help per day. That does not include the hundreds of people sheltering within Mosul itself. When military operations ramp back up that figure will only increase.

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, "Islamic State claims suicide car bombs that killed at least 23 east of Mosul," Iraqi News, 12/22/16

Al Alaem, “Daesh organization destroyed the University of Mosul and plunders its contents,” 12/22/16

Hendawi, Hamza, “After years fleeing IS, tragedy hits Iraqi family in Mosul,” Associated Press, 12/22/16

International Organization for Migration, “Displacement Tracking Matrix, Emergency Tracking – Fact Sheet #8 – Mosul Operations from 17 October to 22 December,” 12/22/16

Iraq News Network, “Asadi: coordination between Suleimani and Abadi over the popular crowd’s involvement in the liberation of Mosul city center,” 12/22/16

Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul, Dec. 10, 2106,” 12/10/16

- “Inside Mosul, Dec. 22, 2016,” 12/22/16

Iskakova, Botagoz, “Iraqi Troops Fighting in Mosul to Be Re-armed,” Bas News, 12/22/16

Al Maalomah, “Nujaba calls to allow the popular crowd to enter Mosul and for the expulsion of the Americans to end the battle quickly,” 12/22/16

Mostafa, Mohamed, “Update: Iraqi troops liberate 28 districts in eastern Mosul,” Iraqi News, 12/9/16

Rudaw, “UPDATED: Tens of civilians killed in triple ISIS car bomb east of Mosul,” 12/22/16

Shafaaq News, “The arrival of military reinforcements to the north of Mosul, a prelude to the resumption of operations,” 12/22/16

Sotaliraq, "Death toll in suicide attacks in Kokjla rise to 23 dead," 12/22/16

- "Popular crowd destroyed a Daash convoy trying to open the security cordon around Tal Afar," 12/22/16

Xinhua, "At least 25 killed in 3 suicide attacks in Iraq's Mosul," 12/22/16

Mosul Campaign Day 66, Dec 21, 2016

The Iraqi authorities have released contradictory statements about the current pace of the Mosul campaign. At the start of December the Iraqi forces (ISF) said they were halting their operations, but that was later denied. The reality on the ground shows that things have almost ground to a halt. U.S. Air Force General Matthew Isler told Reuters that the ISF were in an operational pause to refit and resupply before they renewed their push into Mosul. While there has been fighting across eastern Mosul each day with two car bombs destroyed and mortars killing 10 civilians and wounding 34 others on December 21, there has been little news of any real advances for the last few days.

What has been happening is preparation for a new push, while trying to secure the liberated areas. A military source said that the Golden Division was looking for weak points in the Islamic State’s defenses in Mosul to be exploited when operations start up again, while the Ghazlani camp in the south has been shelled for three days now. Finally, the Golden Division was turning over areas of east Mosul to newly arrived police that have been shifted from the south into the city. That will free up units to rejoin the fight.

Rudaw interviewed General Fazil Barwari of the Golden Division about the progress in Mosul. Barwari noted that several parts of the operation have not gone as planned. Local leaders in the city told the government that there would be a popular uprising against the Islamic State once the Iraqi forces arrived, but that didn’t happen. The ISF also expected civilians to flee conflict areas, but they didn’t making the fighting all that more difficult. Finally, the original plan was to take the city in two months. Barwari told Rudaw that there were still routes from Mosul to Syria, and that IS has received reinforcements from Syria. That contradicted statements by the Hashd who have repeatedly said they have cut IS’s supply lines to Syria. It’s obvious that the Mosul battle has been more difficult than many expected. Optimistic statements about the city being freed by the end of the year and IS defenses collapsing are slowly giving way to more realistic predictions that there are still weeks more of fighting ahead.

Finally, Human Rights Watch interviewed more than 50 people from east Mosul who experienced a variety of attacks by the Islamic State as they attempted to flee the fighting. As the government forces advanced IS men went from house to house asking civilians if they would flee with them. Those that did not were labeled traitors and unbelievers and told that they would suffer as a result. IS has been targeting areas along the front and liberated ones as well with mortars and sniper fire. This has been documented by the Iraqi and international press as well. Almost every day the insurgents are firing mortars and causing civilian casualties.

SOURCE

Adel, Loaa, “Federal Police shells IS camp near Guzlani, kills dozens of terrorists,” Iraqi News, 12/21/16

Ahmed, Hevidar, “’Urban war is not easy,’ commander of Iraq’s elite Golden Division force,” Rudaw, 12/21/16

AIN, “Urgent anti-terrorism commander: starting to hand over liberated neighborhoods in Mosul to the police,” 12/21/16

Al Alam, "44 civilians killed and injured in ISIS Mortar Attack in Mosul," 12/21/16

Face Iraq, “Joint Operations: we are trying to open gapsto enter the rest of the neighborhoods on the left coast of Mosul,” 12/21/16

Al Forat, "The destruction of Daesh car bomb southeast Mosul," 12/21/16

Human Rights Watch, “Iraq: ISIS Attacking Civilians in Mosul Retreat,” 12/20/16

Kalin, Stephen, “Iraqi forces in Mosul mostly in refit mode: U.S. general,” Reuters, 12/21/16

Mosul Campaign Day 65, Dec 20, 2016

There was fighting in east Mosul but no news of any advances. The Islamic State fired mortars into three neighborhoods, and launched two suicide bombers who were killed. Around 250 homes in the Bakr neighborhood have been abandoned due to the constant shelling. The Iraqi forces (ISF) were also firing artillery at south Mosul. For the second day Ghazlani was hit. The southern front has been stalled for almost a month and a half now, and this artillery fire was one of the first signs of life. Al Sumaria also reported that families in the western half of the city were afraid that IS groups were abducting young boys to force them into service. The insurgents are suffering heavy losses in the fighting, so they may be enforcing a kind of draft on the population to bring in more fighters.

The Associated Press interviewed members of the Golden Division about how the battle for Mosul was going. Soldiers said in previous battles the Islamic State fortified specific areas. That was not so in Mosul. There IS has set up small units to cover areas who use tunnels and routes through houses to attack the Iraqi forces who move through neighborhoods in columns of vehicles, and then scurry off to another position. These fire and maneuver tactics have been able to hold up the ISF. The fighting has also been costly. A medic interviewed said that on average he was seeing 18 ISF casualties per day just in his sector. It is these losses that are worrying. The Golden Division is doing almost all of the fighting in east Mosul and if it continues to suffer heavy losses it could debilitate the force. Part of the 9^th Division is the only other unit in the city in combat. South Mosul is supposed to be attacked soon, but it appears to be still a work in progress.

The insurgents also launched attacks in the south and west, and more of their dirty work was discovered. 2 car bombs were destroyed in the Aub Saif area in the south, and another town was attacked. The Tal Afar airport in the west was assaulted for a second day in a row. In the Hamam al-Alil area to the south of the Mosul another mass grave was found with around ten bodies in it. Before the area fell to the Iraqi forces, the militants took hundreds of people to the area, and executed a large number of men. Many more victims are likely to be discovered.

The Qayara oil fields south of Mosul were set ablaze by the retreating insurgents. The North Oil Company has been able to put out 41 wells so far, but there were still others burning. This is causing huge clouds of toxic fumes to spread over the area for two months now causing unknown environmental and human damage. 

The number of displaced has passed the 100,000 mark. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) had 106,692 people registered so far. Each week around 10,000 people are fleeing their homes, and almost all of these are from the Mosul district. Still more are not signed up with the government or aid agencies and are moving within Mosul itself. This situation is only getting worse with only a very few returning so far.

SOURCES

Al Alam, "Iraqi Forces Discover another Mass Grave in Mosul," 12/20/16

Face Iraq, "Federal police chief announced destroying two car bombs south of Mosul and shipment of aid to Hamdaniya Hospital," 12/20/16

Al Forat, “Ninewa we are coming operaitons command: continue clearing roads and buildings of explosives,” 12/20/16

George, Susannah, “Fight for a Mosul district shows Iraqis’ slow, painful slog,” 12/19/16

International Organization for Migration, “Over 106,000 iraqis Displaced by Mosul Operations: Kuwait Donates USD 4 Million in Aid,” 12/20/16

Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul, Dec. 20, 2106,” 12/20/16

Rudaw, “Iraqi and Hashd forces repel ISIS attacks west and south of Mosul,” 12/20/16

Shafaq News, "Nineveh police kill suicide bomber tried to sneak into Gogjali," 12/20/16

Al Sumaria, “’Black detachments’ worry the people of Mosul after the disappearance of boys and teenagers in the right coast,” 12/20/16

UN High Commissioner for Refugees, “Iraq Situation: Flash Update – 19 December 2016,” 12/20/16