Mosul Campaign Day 121, Feb 14, 2017

The Islamic State launched more attacks upon liberated east Mosul. 24 IS fighters who crossed the Tigris River into southeast Mosul at night were stopped by members of the Golden Division, and were eventually killed after a gun battle. Mortar fire killed 1 civilian and wounded 2 more. The government has been forming local Hashd groups to help secure the city. A commander of one such unit told Voice of America that the insurgents were attempting river attacks almost every night. The same report quoted a soldier who said drone strikes were wounding up to 20 people per day. Surveillance drones were also constantly flying over the city trying to sport targets for mortar fire. There is still the threat of sleeper cells as well. East Mosul remains insecure as a result of these constant attacks.

Mosul Campaign Day 120, Feb 13, 2017

There has been two weeks of pause in between offensive operations in Mosul. In those days the Iraqi Forces (ISF) have continued to report their readiness and the collapse of the Islamic State. The Golden Division’s General Abdul Wahab al-Saadi said that his units were ready to attack west Mosul. At the same time he claimed IS had fallen apart because it has lost most of its leaders and were low on supplies. Similar statements are made almost everyday by ISF commanders.

Mosul Campaign Day 119 Feb. 12, 2017

The Islamic State launched a large three-pronged attack upon the Hashd in western Ninewa, and another against the Iraqi forces (ISF) in the south. IS attacked along the Tal Afar, Baaj, Blaij line with up to 17 car bombs and suicide bombers. The Hashd claimed they were trying to re-open the road from Mosul to Syria. The fighting lasted for half of the day. The insurgents also assaulted a Federal Police headquarters in Arbaj in the Hamam al-Alil district south of Mosul. 1 police was killed and six soldiers were wounded in the process. IS’s main strategy is to always attack. Given the wide open terrain these incidents took place in they were near suicide missions for the militants as their movements were easy to detect and turn back.

Musings On Iraq In The News

Was mentioned in “ISIS executes 5 civilians in western Mosul for fleeing” by Rudaw. Was also cited in "Bataille de Mossoul: Comment Daech A Perdu La Partie Est De La Ville Au Prix De Rudes Combats" in France Soir.

Survey Finds Internet In Iraq Reinforces Sectarian Views

In 2015 during the Shiite pilgrimages of Arabeen to the shrine city of Karbala a group of researches from the Massachusetts Institute for Technology (MIT) interviewed 1,668 Iranians and 2,410 Iraqis. One of the things they were asked about was where they got their news from, and how it affected their views. The vast majority of Iraqis, 89.7% got their news from TV. 69.9% said they received their information from friends and family. 48.5% read the Internet, 27.2% received it from their mosque, 9.5% read newspapers and magazines, and 8.4% listened to the radio. Social media and Internet calling and texting services were also important with 53% using Facebook, 49% using Skype, Viber, and Whatsapp, 43% using YouTube, and 26% emailing.

The survey found that those that got their news from traditional sources such as the TV, newspapers and radio were more pro-government. Those that had more access to media than conventional ones had more varied friends of other sects and less traditional views. Finally, people who only got their news from the Internet were not only more conservative, but also more sectarian to. It seemed that rather using the Internet to search out information, Iraqis instead used it to find sources that supported their established views and reinforced their sectarian opinions.

SOURCES

Christia, Fotini, Dekeyser, Elizabeth, Knox, Dean, “To Karbala: Surveying Religious Shi’a from Iran and Iraq,” Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 10/20/16

Mosul Campaign Day 118, Feb 11, 2017

-->

It turns out yesterday’s violence was even worse than initially reported. Instead of one there were actually three car bombs in east Mosul. Those resulted in 15 deaths and 9 wounded. On February 11 two suicide bombers were killed. Even though fighting is over in east Mosul the insurgents continue to take a heavy toll on civilians in the liberated areas. Army Chief of Staff General Othman al-Ghanemi claimed that it would take 30 days to eliminate all the sleeper cells. The security forces (ISF) are conducting sweeps through neighborhoods, and extra units have been sent in to help. Even if those were all wiped out there would still be the shelling, drone strikes and infiltration attempts to deal with.

Violence In Iraq, Feb. 1-7, 2017

Ninewa and Baghdad were the two main drivers of violence during the first week of February 2017. Those two had the most incidents. There were a total of 123 reported in Iraq with 50 in Ninewa, 31 in Baghdad, 17 in Diyala, 9 in Anbar, 7 in Salahaddin, 4 in Kirkuk, 2 each in Babil and Basra, and 1 in Irbil.

Those led to 388 dead and 176 wounded. The former consisted of 1 Iranian Revolutionary Guards adviser, 1 Peshmerga, 2 Hashd, 21 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 363 civilians, with another 15 Hashd, 39 ISF, and 122 civilians injured.

By province 183 died in Ninewa, 150 in Babil, 22 in Baghdad, 11 each in Diyala and Kirkuk, 8 in Anbar, 2 in Salahaddin, and 1 in Irbil.

Anbar is one of the provinces in which the Islamic State is increasing its activities. During the week there were 9 incidents. The biggest was a car bomb at a checkpoint. Three others were destroyed along with 2 suicide bombers. Most of the violence was in the western section of the governorate.

In Babil a mass grave was discovered in Mahawil with 150 bodies in it. These were likely victims of the insurgents from when they controlled sections of the province a few years ago.

Baghdad is another area where IS has picked up its attacks in the last month. There were a total of 31 incidents. 22 people were killed and 75 wounded as a result. As usual the main form of attack were 20 IEDs. A car bomb was discovered and dismantled as well. As usual, most of the incidents occurred in the south, 13, and north, 9, with another 7 in the west, 7 in the east, and 1 in the center.

Diyala was the third province where there have been more attacks. There were 17 during the week, the third highest in the country. As usual this was a mix of low-level shootings and IEDs along with mass casualty bombings. On one day three car bombs went off in two incidents killing 3 and wounding 8.

As usual most of the violence in Kirkuk were executions. 11 people died during the week, the Islamic State in Hawija killed 5 of those for spying. Another 5 bodies were found in two other incidents.

East Mosul was liberated at the end of January, but the Islamic State has launched a steady stream of attacks there and against the Hashd in the west. Everyday there is shelling and drone strikes on the liberated parts of Mosul taking a heavy toll on civilians. IS is also still making fruitless attacks in the open plains of Ninewa against the Hashd. Of the 183 killed and 58 wounded, 1 was an Iranian Revolutionary Guard adviser killed in the Tal Afar district, the Islamic State executed 32, Coalition air strikes were blamed for 42 deaths and 24 injured, and the remaining 108 fatalities and 34 wounded were all due to insurgent operations against east Mosul.

Salahaddin’s governor has been complaining about the deterioration of security in the province. He called on Baghdad to intervene. At the start of February however insurgent activity was at a low level with an average of just incident per day. Most of these attacks are occurring in the eastern sections of the governorate where IS still holds bases. A number of power towers were also blown up and knocked down north of Samarra in the center.

Violence In Iraq By Month 2016-2017

Month	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan	723	2,418	1,986
Feb	657	1,685	1,724
Mar	683	1,685	2,095
1st Qtr Daily Avg/91	22.6	63.6	63.7
Apr	630	1,840	1,904
May	675	1,644	2,484
Jun	631	2,111	6,455
2nd Qtr Daily Avg/91	21.2	61.4	119.1
Jul	531	1,329	1,708
Aug	574	1,263	1,376
Sep	573	1,203	1,602
3rd Qtr Daily Avg/92	18.2	41.2	50.9
Oct	589	2,965	2,376
Nov	599	4,389	3,972
Dec	583	1,559	11,681
4th Qtr Daily Avg/92	19.2	96.8	195.6
Jan 1-7	188	509	1,346
Jan 8-14	168	363	1,044
Jan 15-21	137	583	1,264
Jan 22-28	145	289	310
Jan 29-31	74	127	134
JAN	712	1,871	4,098
Feb 1-7	123	388	176

Province	Violence
Anbar	9 Incidents 8 Killed: 4 ISF, 4 Civilians 8 Wounded: 1 Civilian, 7 ISF 3 Shootings 1 Car Bomb 2 Suicide Bombers Killed 2 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 3 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	2 Incidents 150 Killed: 150 Civilians 8 Wounded: 8 Hashd 1 IED
Baghdad	31 Incidents 22 Killed: 2 ISF, 20 Civilians 75 Wounded: 1 Hashd, 8 ISF, 66 Civilians 5 Shootings 20 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs 1 Car Bomb Dismantled
Basra	2 Incidents 1 IED 1 Sound Bomb
Diyala	17 Incidents 11 Killed: 1 Hashd, 5 ISF, 5 Civilians 16 Wounded: 2 Civilians, 3 Hashd, 11 ISF 6 Shootings 10 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 3 Car Bombs
Irbil	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting
Kirkuk	4 Incidents 11 Killed: 1 Peshmerga, 10 Civilians 1 Shooting
Ninewa	50 Incidents 183 Killed: 1 IRGC, 9 ISF, 173 Civilians 58 Wounded: 8 ISF, 50 Civilians 12 Shootings 3 Car Bombs 12 Mortars 7 Rockets 5 Drone Strikes 2 Suicide Bombers Arrested/Killed 13 Car Bombs Destroyed
Salahaddin	7 Incidents 2 Killed: 1 ISF, 1 Hashd 11 Wounded: 3 Civilians, 3 Hashd, 5 ISF 4 Shootings 3 IEDs

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, "Airstrike destroys booby-trapped vehicle west of Karbala," Iraqi News, 2/1/17

- "Iraqi army kills 16 IS militants, destroys 2 car bombs near Anbar," Iraqi News, 2/5/17

- "IS attacks security forces, kills and wounds 4 army members," Iraqi News, 2/7/17

- "Islamic State executes 5 civilians on charges of spying in Hawija," Iraqi News, 2/1/17

- "US-led coalition airstrike destroys car bomb, kills suicide bomber near Anbar," 2/7/17

Buratha News, "Army thwarted suicide attack targeting army checkpoint on the Baiji-Haditha road in Anbar," 2/5/17

- "Found the body of a young man and woman in Kirkuk," 2/4/17

Face Iraq, "Pulled nearly 150 bodies from a drainage ditch in Mahaweel area North Babylon," 2/5/17

Mostafa, Mohamed, "Security deaths in Anbar car blast, IS kidnap 60 whistle-blowers," Iraqi News, 2/7/17

Prensa Latina, "Three Soldiers Killed in Attacks in Western Iraq," 2/5/17

Al Sumaria, "Found three decomposed bodies southeast Kirkuk," 2/7/17

Xinhua, “Iraqi governor warns of security setback in Salahudin,” 2/7/17