Iraqis Feeling Positive About Their Govt And Country In 2023

The Gallup company recently did a public opinion survey in Iraq about how people felt about their government and economy and compared it to other countries in the region. Iraqis felt generally positive about the current administration while acknowledging continued struggles with the economy.

New Poll Shows Disillusionment With The Promises Of Iraq’s Kurdistan

(Middle East Eye)

At the end of March Gallup did a public opinion poll in Kurdistan. It found that many residents did not think the region was much better than the rest of Iraq which was a major change.

New Iraqi Survey Finds Continued Cynicism On Politics

(AFP)

The Center for Insights In Survey Research released a new poll on Iraq. It questioned 3,070 adults about Iraqi politics. It’s margin of error was +/- 1.5% with a 95% confidence level. It found that the public was highly cynical about the country.

Iraqis In Kirkuk And Salahaddin Feel Safer But Worried About Future

(US Business Council in Iraq)

Kirkuk and Salahaddin used to be two of the foundations of the insurgency. Today, both are relatively secure with a decline in attacks. Two surveys by PAX show that people there are feeling safer, but have some trepidations about the future.

3 Province Poll Finds Most Iraqis Feeling Secure

(Shafaaq News)

The group PAX released a survey on security in Iraq in July 2019. It interviewed 1,429 people in Basra, Kirkuk and Salahaddin. The last two were post-war zones, while Basra provided the perspective of Iraqis not directly involved in the conflict. It found that people generally thought the country was better off, although there was some trepidation about the future.

New Iraq Poll: People Focused Upon Govt And Not Happy

With the war against the Islamic State over and violence at its lowest level since the 2003 invasion, most Iraqis are turning their attention to the Iraqi government and are not happy with what they see. A poll released in July 2019 by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) conducted in the spring found that most Iraqis think their country is going in the wrong direction because of their concerns about Baghdad.

(NDI)

Skepticism About Mahdi Govt In New Iraq Poll

PM Mahdi (Baghdad Post)

A new poll by Al Mustakilla for Research found widespread skepticism about the government of Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi. In nearly every category the administration ranked at under 50% in approval. The poll was taken during January 2019 and included 1,300 people. The respondents were broken up into four regions. One was Baghdad. Another was the Arab North including Ninewa, Kirkuk, Salahaddin, and Diyala. The South was everything below Baghdad, and then Kurdistan.

Survey Finds A Divided Iraq, But Not For The Traditional Reasons

The National Democratic Institute released a new survey that found Iraqis feeling deeply divided. There were only three questions asked of why people felt that way. It appeared that sect was no longer such a big issue, but rather the distribution of goods and services that piqued the public.

New Poll Finds Widespread Cynicism and Alienation Over The Iraqi Govt

In May 2018 Iraqis went to the polls to pick a new government. The results were the lowest turnout since elections started in 2005 and widespread cheating by the ruling parties. The participation rate showed deep cynicism towards the political system, which was confirmed by the fraud that took place. A recent public opinion poll conducted from August to October 2018 pointed to the Iraqi public having little faith in the country’s politics.

Opinion Poll: Iraqis Split On Security And The Islamic State

The National Democratic Institute released a new survey that found Iraqis had split feelings about security. The poll was conducted from August to October 2018 and talked with 3,804 people across all of Iraq’s eighteen provinces and included people in displaced camps. While a majority felt the current security situation was good, they feared the Islamic State would return leading to things deteriorating in the future. 

New Iraqi Survey Sees Highest Pessimism In Eleven Years

The National Democratic Institute released a new public opinion survey on Iraq. It was conducted from August to October 2018 and included 3,804 interviews in all 18 provinces including people in displaced camps. The results showed the highest levels of pessimism since 2007 when Iraq was in the middle of a civil war. That’s a surprising development since the country has just won a war against the Islamic State.

New Iraq Public Opinion Piece On Iran Misses Point

The Washington Post recently published an article by Munqith al-Dagher the CEO of Almustakilla for Research in Baghdad on a public opinion survey his firm conducted on Shiite views of Iran. The poll found a large change in people’s views of Tehran and its role in Iraq. Dagher’s analysis of the poll however missed many important points about how Iraqi politics work and even undermines some of his own points at the end.

New Iraq Poll 2018 Election Looks To Return Familiar Faces To Govt

Parliamentary elections in Iraq are only a month away. Dr. Munqith Dagher recently presented polling data on voting patterns at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The results showed a divided electorate that is becoming increasingly unhappy with the ruling parties, but the lack of alternatives means those same groups will still hold onto power.

2 New Iraq Opinion Polls Find Sea Change In Views

Two new public opinion polls from the Spring of 2017 found that Iraqis still hold very divergent views. What was a big change was that most Sunnis felt positive about the country and the government, although they were still worried about the Islamic State. Shiites on the other hand, showed high levels of pessimism, while Kurds appeared to be done with the central government.

Survey Finds Internet In Iraq Reinforces Sectarian Views

In 2015 during the Shiite pilgrimages of Arabeen to the shrine city of Karbala a group of researches from the Massachusetts Institute for Technology (MIT) interviewed 1,668 Iranians and 2,410 Iraqis. One of the things they were asked about was where they got their news from, and how it affected their views. The vast majority of Iraqis, 89.7% got their news from TV. 69.9% said they received their information from friends and family. 48.5% read the Internet, 27.2% received it from their mosque, 9.5% read newspapers and magazines, and 8.4% listened to the radio. Social media and Internet calling and texting services were also important with 53% using Facebook, 49% using Skype, Viber, and Whatsapp, 43% using YouTube, and 26% emailing.

The survey found that those that got their news from traditional sources such as the TV, newspapers and radio were more pro-government. Those that had more access to media than conventional ones had more varied friends of other sects and less traditional views. Finally, people who only got their news from the Internet were not only more conservative, but also more sectarian to. It seemed that rather using the Internet to search out information, Iraqis instead used it to find sources that supported their established views and reinforced their sectarian opinions.

SOURCES

Christia, Fotini, Dekeyser, Elizabeth, Knox, Dean, “To Karbala: Surveying Religious Shi’a from Iran and Iraq,” Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 10/20/16

Effect Of Iranian Propaganda On Iraq

Iran is now concentrating upon the war in Syria, but from 2014-15 Iraq was its major focus. When the Islamic State swept through Ninewa, Salahaddin, and Kirkuk provinces in the summer of 2014, Tehran was the first to offer assistance to the Iraqi government. Military support was only part of Iran’s program however. It also launched a sophisticated propaganda campaign to promote itself as the savior of Iraq. This was carried out on social media mostly via Facebook, Twitter, and other platforms. At the center of this effort was Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force commander General Qasim Suleimani. He appeared on all the major battlefronts in Iraq again and again on the Internet. The success of this campaign was shown in a survey done of pilgrims to the Shiite shrine in Karbala.

Gen. Suleimani seen visiting the Tirkit front in 2015 (Al Alam)

A group of three researchers working for the Massachusetts Institute of Technology interviewed 1,668 Iranians and 2,410 Iraqis during Arabaeen in Karbala in 2015. Those questioned overwhelmingly supported Iran’s policies in the Middle East. When asked what motivated Iran in the region the most popular response for Iraqis, 40.68%, was to protect Shiite communities. That compared to 27.33% of Iranians selecting that choice. That showed how effective Iran’s propaganda campaign was within Iraq. Iraqis felt like Tehran was helping them more than Iranians themselves. This was of course in the middle of the war with the Islamic State, Iraqis were still feeling vulnerable, and when Iran was pumping up its role in Iraq far above the U.S. led Coalition, which preferred having the Iraqis claim responsibility for their victories. Other factors shaping the response would be the negative view most of those interviewed had of America, as well as religious Shiites being more open to Iran’s role then others. In contrast, a plurality of Iranians, 39.28% believed that national security was the main driver of Tehran’s foreign policy.

What motivates Iran’s policy in the Middle East?	Iraqis	Iranians
Creating a more stable Middle East	9.07%	22.87%
Ensuring Iran’s security	28.21%	39.28%
Maximizing Iran’s regional influence	22.04%	10.53%
Protecting vulnerable Shiite communities	40.68%	27.33%

SOURCES

Christia, Fotini, Dekeyser, Elizabeth, Knox, Dean, “To Karbala: Surveying Religious Shi’a from Iran and Iraq,” Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 10/20/16

Christia, Fotini, Dekeyser, Elizabeth and Knox, Dean, “Mapping Shiite Opinion,” Foreign Affairs, 10/24/16

New Study Finds Marginalization Main Reason For Sunni Support For Insurgency

Mercy Corps recently released a study based upon three years worth of polling and interviews in Iraq on public perceptions of the government and armed groups. The organization did polls in 2013, 2014 and 2015. This provided it with an important insight as it discovered how the change in government from Prime Minister Nouria al-Maliki to Premier Hadiar Abadi affected the populace’s perceptions. It found that Maliki’s marginalization of Sunnis, and the lack of services were the main reasons why people were upset with the government and supported armed groups.

The most interesting part of the Mercy Corps’ report was how Sunni opinion changed about the insurgency before and after the Maliki government. The organization was conducting its third year of surveying in Iraq when Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki lost office to Haidar Abadi. That allowed it to measure how the transition in leadership affected Sunni perceptions. Most striking was that support for armed groups amongst the community went from 49% in 2014 to 26% in 2015. Part of that drop might have been due to Anbar not being included in the second survey, but even then it was such a sizeable drop that the absence of that one province could not account for the entire change. More importantly, the only major difference between the two polls was the replacement of Maliki as premier. The former prime minister was widely unpopular amongst Sunnis due to his targeting of Sunni politicians such as former Finance Miniser Rafi Issawi that led to year long protests. The security forces were also blamed for arbitrary and mass arrests, and attacked two demonstration sites in Ramadi and Hawija. This supported Mercy Corps’ thesis that it was marginalization and bad governance rather than the oft cited sectarianism that was a root cause for the rise of the Islamic State and the rebirth of the insurgency. If sect for example, was the main cause of complaints by Sunnis then they would still support armed groups after Abadi took office as he was a Shiite as well.

Sunni opinions of the government overall improved after Abadi became prime minister as well. When asked about the police, the government, security, and job prospects opinions went up around 10% each from 2014 to 2015. Electricity saw the largest increase going from 59% to 72%. Again, the change in administration made Sunnis feel better about a range of issues from the security forces to services. There seemed to be hope that Abadi would be fairer than his predecessor, and thus people’s opinions improved.

That did not mean that sectarianism and feelings of prejudice did not show up in the poll. When asked about whether the government treated their sect unfairly a majority of Sunnis and Shiites said yes. Around 80% of Sunnis believed they were not treated fairly sometimes, and about 2% said often. 40% of Shiites stated the same with around 10% adding they felt that way often. These were surprising results. It is widely accepted that Sunnis feel that the government discriminates against them, yet the vast majority only responded sometimes, and not often. At the same time, 50% of Shiites felt the same way with a larger percentage 10% versus 2% saying often. Since the government is Shiite led one would expect that community to feel that they are treated fairly if not better, but the opposite was found. Shiites might have felt that the government was too compromising with other communities to their detriment. Another possibility was that since its community runs most of the government they believed they should be treated better in terms of services, etc., but because they were not it must be because of some sort of discrimination.

Dissatisfaction with the government was widespread as Iraqis felt that problems were getting worse from 2013 to 2015. Corruption was at the top of the list going from 50% saying it was a problem in 2013 to 73% in 2015. Education went from 25% to 35%, electricity grew from 15% to 32%, health care increased from 28% to 33%, and services increased from 21% to 39%.  Iraq is notorious for being one of the most corruption countries in the world. Many services have also been deficient since 2003. That’s caused several years of protests across the country with the latest starting in the summer of 2015 and continuing to the present day. The fact that so many Iraqis from different communities feel the same way offers the opportunity for cross-ethnosectarian cooperation. Unfortunately, that has not been realized as the political class is unwilling to initiate any real reforms, especially when it comes to corruption, because it would threaten its patronage networks, which it relies upon to stay in power.

The Mercy Corps surveys and another one just released by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research both complicated the sectarian narrative that dominates much of the discussion about Iraq. Both polls found the ill treatment by the government were the most important issues. For Mercy Corps, Sunni perceptions of Maliki were a determining factor in their support for the insurgency. Likewise, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research found that desire for a fair judicial system was the most important issue for Sunnis. Both surveys also discovered that Sunnis were relatively hopeful about the Abadi government. If the community perceived everything in strict sectarian terms than they would not think that a new Shiite premier would be any better than the last. Identity politics is obviously still a major issue in Iraq, but what these two studies highlight is that they do not always play out as many would expect. They also highlight that tackling issues that affect all Iraqis like electricity and graft would garner support across the country, but no politicians are willing to make that move because it would disturb the status quo that put them in office. Prime Minister Abadi for example, offered a round of reforms in response to the latest protests, but they’ve ground to a halt as most of the parties quickly turned on him, and the premier was trying to use them for his own gain as well. That may eventually lead the public to turn on him if he is not able to deliver on any of his promises again proving Mercy Corps’ thesis that poor government is the driving issue in the country.

SOURCES

Mercy Corps, “Investing In Iraq’s Peace, How Good Governance Can Diminish Support for Violent Extremism,” January 2016

2015 Public Opinion Poll Iraq Divided Over Future Of Kurdistan & Partisan Divide Amongst Kurds

The third part of the latest Iraq public opinion poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research dealt with Kurdistan. The survey was conducted from August to September 2015 and included 2,000 respondents from all parts of the country. The general feeling was that the relationship between Baghdad and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) was getting worse, and at the same time the region was deeply divided along partisan lines.

Everyone thought that ties between Baghdad and Irbil were getting worse. In Baghdad 67% said they were worse, 17% better. In the south 70% said worse compared to 16% better. The west responded 64% worse, 7% better, and Kurdistan had 95% worse, 2% better. All of those negative responses were up from December 2014 ranging from +44% saying worse in Baghdad to +15% in Kurdistan. The same thing was stated when broken down by ethnicity and sect. 83% of Kurds said relations were worse, 71% for Sunnis, and 68% for Shiites. The relationship between the central and regional governments, which was always difficult took a huge hit during the Maliki administration, which challenged the Kurds over the disputed territories, oil and the budget. Prime Minister Haidar Abadi attempted to repair the relationship with a new budget deal, but that quickly broke down as neither side followed through with its obligations, which explained the poor results in the poll.

Do you think relations between the KRG and the central government are getting better or worse?

Baghdad 67% Worse, 17% Better

South 70% Worse, 16% Better

West 64% Worse, 7% Better

Kurdistan 95% Worse, 2% Better

Kurds 83% Worse, 2% Better

Sunnis 71% Worse, 8% Better

Shiites 68% Worse, 17% Better

Kurds and Arabs had different opinions on Kurdish independence with the latter opposing the idea. When asked should Kurdistan be independent or remain an autonomous region, the majority was for the KRG to stay within Iraq. Overall, 60% chose autonomy over independence, 33%. 82% of Kurds were for independence and 9% for autonomy as opposed to 56% of Sunnis and 78% of Shiites who thought autonomy would be better. Despite the differences between the two the majority of Arabs still thought that Kurdistan should remain part of the country. That was not shared by Kurds who have wanted independence for decades now. That variance in opinions was another source of tension between Baghdad and Irbil as both were pulling in different directions.

Should Kurdistan become an independent country or remain an autonomous region of Iraq?

Overall 28% Independent, 60% Autonomy

Kurds 82% Independent, 9% Autonomy

Sunnis 22% Independent, 56% Autonomy

Shiites 13% Independent, 78% Autonomy

There were varying opinions on the ties with Baghdad between the different ruling parties in Kurdistan. When asked was it important to resolve the budget crisis with Baghdad or develop a new regional constitution 33% chose the former versus 53% for the latter. Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) followers, 75%, and Gorran members, 41%, were more interested in the constitution, while pro-Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) respondents picked the budget 46%. The PUK has much better relations with Baghdad than the KDP and therefore thought improving relations with the central government were more important. The KDP wants a new constitution that will ensure President Barzani’s position, while Gorran has been pushing for one that will reform the region’s political system.

Is it more important for the KRG to resolve the budget crisis with Baghdad or develop a new constitution?

Overall 33% Budget, 53% Constitution

KDP 16% Budget, 75% Constitution

PUK 46% Budget, 38% Constitution

Gorran 36% Budget, 41% Constitution

Kurds were very pessimistic about their situation. 49% said the region was going in the wrong direction. That was the highest percentage in the last five years. Back in November 2010 for example only 9% said that things were bad versus 85% who thought it was good. Even by December 2014 most respondents were feeling pessimistic with 56% saying things were going in the right direction. The financial crisis, the war with the Islamic State, the flood of displaced into the region because of the fighting, and the political disputes between the KDP and Gorran have all led to people questioning their situation. The economic problems especially have led to government workers, the largest part of the work force to not be paid for months, development projects have come to a halt, and the regional government is facing a huge debt none of which will be repaired soon as the KRG is oil dependent just like Baghdad meaning it has little means to adjust things when oil prices drop as they have been doing.

Partisan politics determined the views on the regional government and its leaders. KDP voters were overwhelmingly happy with President Barzani, 99%, but that was not shared by PUK voters, 31% approved, or Gorran supporters, only 7%. All groups liked the job the regional parliament was doing with 57% of KDP voters, 79% of PUK ones, and 83% of Gorran supporters approving of the legislature. When it came to the regional government ideas were more split with 89% of KDP members saying it was doing a good job, but only 52% of PUK voters and 43% of Gorran ones. The same opinions were expressed when asked which institution should have the most authority. Overall, 36% said the parliament, 33% the president, 13% the peshmerga and 7% the KRG premier. By party, PUK and Gorran voters backed the parliament, while KDP followers were for the president. The KRG has been dealing with a political crisis over whether President Barzani should be allowed to stay in office even though his term has officially expired. The KDP has responded to the dispute by dismissing all the Gorran cabinet ministers and the speaker of parliament. That is reflected in the responses about the president with hardly any PUK or Gorran voters approving of him. There is a shared opinion that the parliament is trying to do its job, while feelings are more mixed about the regional government. Gorran being kicked out of office may account for the mixed feelings about the KRG overall.

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Massoud Barzani is doing?

KDP 99% Approve, 1% Disapprove

PUK 31% Approve, 67% Disapprove

Gorran 7% Approve, 87% Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Kurdish parliament is doing?

KDP 57% Approve, 39% Disapprove

PUK 79% Approve, 21% Disapprove

Gorran 83% Approve, 17% Disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the job the KRG is doing?

KDP 89% Approve, 95 Disapprove

PUK 52% Approve, 48% Disapprove

Gorran 43% Approve, 57% Disapprove

Which institution should have the most authority over decisions?

Overall 36% Parliament, 33% President, 13% Peshmerga, 7% KRG Premier

KDP 10% Parliament, 82% president, 0% Peshmerga, 3% KRG Premier

PUK 56% Parliament, 9% President, 11% Peshmerga, 12% KRG Premier

Gorran 62% Parliament, 19% President, 10% Peshmerga, 7% KRG Premier

All of the Kurdish politicians were seen in a poor light. President Barzani had the best rating at 41% favoring him, but 46% saying unfavorable. Speaker of the Kurdish parliament Yusef Mohammed had 38% favorable and 40% unfavorable. Premier Nechirvan Barzani was at 36% favorable, 50% unfavorable. PUK leader Kosrat Rasul had 32% favorable and 49% unfavorable, while Iraq’s President Fuad Masum from the PUK received 31% favorable responses versus 45% unfavorable. Obviously, people were upset as no figure had a positive standing. That represented the partisan politics of the region and the inability of any leader to rise above those divisions and become a figure for all Kurds.

Favorable or unfavorable opinion of the following politicians?

Pres. M. Barzani 41% Favorable, 46% Unfavorable

Speaker Mohammed 38% Favorable, 40% Unfavorable

Premier N. Barzani 36% Favorable, 50% Unfavorable

Rasul 32% Favorable, 49% Unfavorable

Iraq Pres. Masum 31% Favorable, 45% Unfavorable

There were partisan divisions over whether President Barzani should have stayed in office. Overall, 39% said he should have been extended versus 51% opposing that idea. Amongst KDP voters 94% supported him getting an extension, while only 17% of PUK supporters and 4% of Gorran ones did. When asked should Barzani stay president until the war with IS is over the responses were largely the same with 45% saying he should stay in office versus 49% against. 99% of KDP voters believed he should remain president versus 16% by PUK voters and 15% of Gorran partisans. It’s obvious that these questions showed how divided the region is over Barzani.

Do you approve/disapprove of President Barzani’s extension?

Overall 39% Approve, 51% Disapprove

KDP 94% Approve, 6% Disapprove

PUK 17% Approve, 74% Disapprove

Gorran 4% Approve, 89% Disapprove

Do you think President Barzani should remain in office until the crisis with IS is over?

Overall 45% Approve, 49% Disapprove

KDP 99% Approve, 0% Disapprove

PUK 16% Approve, 77% Disapprove

Gorran 15% Approve, 82% Disapprove

Similarly there were splits over how the president should be elected. 47% said it should be by direct vote of the people, while just as many, 46% said the parliament should do it. 98% of KDP backers were for a direct vote, while 72% of PUK backers and 79% of Gorran supporters were for a parliamentary system. The KDP is for a popular vote because they have more supporters in the KRG than the other parties. In parliament however the two other parties have more power so they support giving the legislature the authority to pick the executive.

Do you want to directly elect the president of have the parliament elect the president?

Overall 47% Direct, 46% Parliament

KDP 98% Direct, 0% Parliament

PUK 19% Direct, 72% Parliament

Gorran 16% Direct, 79% Parliament

When asked about the political parties the PUK was the only one that came out with a good rating. 44% had a favorable opinion of that party versus 34% negative. The KDP had 38% favorable versus 50% unfavorable, while Gorran was at 36% positive, 45% negative. The PUK came out on top because it was supported not only by its own partisans, but a large percent of Gorran and KDP members as well. The KDP and Gorran have the biggest rivalry right now over President Barzani, while the PUK has tried to work with both of them giving it a generally positive image across the board.

Do you have a favorable/unfavorable opinion of the following parties?

PUK 44% Favorable, 34% Unfavorable

KDP 38% Favorable, 50% Unfavorable

Gorran 36% Favorable, 45% Unfavorable

Do you have a favorable/unfavorable opinion of the following parties by party followers

KDP Voters

KDP 96% Favorable

PUK 42% Favorable, 35% Unfavorable

Gorran 24% Favorable, 55% Unfavorable

PUK Voters

KDP 18% Favorable, 67% Unfavorable

PUK 86% Favorable

Gorran 35% Favorable, 41% Unfavorable

Gorran Voters

KDP 8% Favorable, 83% Unfavorable

PUK 37% Favorable, 31% Unfavorable

Gorran 93% Favorable

On whether people thought the peshmerga was divided opinion was almost evenly split with 46% saying divided versus 50% unified. 77% of KDP supporters picked unified compared to 44% of PUK backers and 39% of Gorran voters. The peshmerga were originally created by the KDP and PUK as their armed wings. The KRG has talked about uniting those forces for decades, but the two parties still dominate them. KDP followers still believed in that united vision, while PUK and Gorran members saw the peshmerga as largely extensions of the parties.

Do you think the Peshmerga are divided or unified?

Overall 46% Divided, 50% Unified

KDP 19% Divided, 77% Unified

PUK 52% Divided, 44% Unified

Gorran 58% Divided, 39% Unified

Finally, almost all respondents were worried that the partisan divide between the parties would lead to future conflicts. 94% were very concerned about that, and that was the same response by all the different voters. The split between the parties is very wide right now with neither the KDP nor Gorran showing any signs of compromise over President Barzani’s term. For the first time in years that’s raising the question of whether the region will return to civil war. That doesn’t seem likely, especially because Gorran has no armed wing, but Kurds are worried that more civil unrest is on the horizon. Already there were protests in the province that started out over wages and services, and quickly came to be dominated by partisan divisions with demonstrators being fired upon. Those types of events are likely to happen again especially with the economic pressures growing making many people unhappy with their situation.

How concerned are you that tensions between the ruling parties will lead to internal conflict in Kurdistan?

Overall 94% Concerned, 5% Unconcerned

KDP 94% Concerned, 5% unconcerned

PUK 94% Concerned, 6% Unconcerned

Gorran 93% Concerned, 7% Unconcerned

SOURCES

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, “Lack of Responsiveness Impacts Mood, August-September 2015 Survey Findings,” 11/23/15

Autumn 2015 Iraq Public Opinion Poll: PM Abadi Widely Popular Not So Much Rest Of Government

In December 2015 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research released a new public opinion poll on Iraq. The company has done several such surveys over the last couple years, and the data is some of the most comprehensive available on how Iraqis are feeling about their country. The survey was done from August 12 to September 3 and included 2,000 people from all major regions of the country. The results showed that Prime Minister Haidar Abadi was still widely popular in Iraq, far above any other national leader. On the other hand, the public had a low opinion of the ruling parties and government in general, and had different thoughts on what needed to be fixed in the country apart from what politicians talk about.

Prime Minister Haidar Abadi was by far the most popular politician in the poll. He had an approval rating of 65%, and 58% of respondents said they wanted to continue in the direction he was leading the country. The only region that disagreed was Kurdistan with only 14% agreeing with the premier. In comparison, in Baghdad and the south 76% wanted to follow Abadi, and 42% in western Iraq. When compared to other national leaders the prime minister also had the highest rating with 54% versus 30% for Muqtada al-Sadr, 17% for Ammar Hakim head of the Supreme Council, 16% for ex-Vice President Nouri al-Maliki, 15% for Kurdish President Massoud Barzani, 11% for Speaker of Parliament Salim Jabouri, 10% for former VP Iyad Allawi, 9% for Iraq’s President Fuad Masum, and 5% for dismissed VP Osama Nujafi. When broken down by sect 75% of Shiites approved of the prime minister and 39% for Sunnis versus 34% unfavorable. Only Kurdish respondents had a bad view of him at 82% unfavorable. Abadi came in with a very positive approval rating when he was first elected in December 2014 at 75%. Even though it dipped after that he was still far above any other politician. August when the survey was done was also when the premier announced his reform program in response to national protests, and that could have maintained his support. The low rating amongst Kurds was likely due to Baghdad’s on going dispute with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over the budget and oil exports.

Do you approve/disapprove of the job PM Abadi is doing?

65% Approve

29% Disapprove

I want to continue in the direction PM Abadi is taking Iraq versus I want to go in a different direction than the PM

Overall 58% Follow PM, 21% Different Direction

Baghdad 76% Follow PM, 8% Different Direction

South 76% Follow PM, 11% Different Direction

West 42% Follow PM, 17% Different Direction

Kurdistan 14% Follow PM, 77% Different Direction

How do you feel about Iraq’s political leaders?

Abadi 54% Favorable, 31% Unfavorable

Sadr 30% Favorable, 45% Unfavorable

Hakim 17% Favorable, 57% Unfavorable

Maliki 16% Favorable, 73% Unfavorable

M. Barzani 15% Favorable, 68% Unfavorable

Jabouri 11% Favorable, 63% Unfavorable

Allawi 10% Favorable, 75% Unfavorable

Masum 9% Favorable, 68% Unfavorable

O. Nujafi 5% Favorable, 79% Unfavorable

Opinion of PM Abadi by sect

Shiites 75% Favorable, 15% Unfavorable

Sunnis 39% Favorable, 34% Unfavorable

Kurds 5% Favorable, 82% Unfavorable

The survey showed the majority of Iraqis had a very low opinion of the country’s ruling parties. The Badr organization had the most favorable responses at 36% with 43% not liking the party. After that Sadr’s Ahrar bloc had 20% favorable 49% unfavorable, Abadi’s Dawa came in with 18% favorable 57% unfavorable, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan had 15% favorable 56% unfavorable, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) 14% favorable 57% unfavorable, the Kurdistan Democratic Party 14% favorable 59% unfavorable, Gorran came in with 11% favorable 62% unfavorable, Nujafi’s Mutahidun had 10% favorable 66% unfavorable, and Allawi’s Iraqi Nationalists finished with 6% favorable 71% unfavorable. After the fall of Mosul in June 2014 the Badr Organization was quick to respond with its militia, which became part of the Hashd al-Shaabi/Popular Mobilization units, while its leader Hadi Ameri took a commanding role in security operations. That probably accounts for why his party had the best rating out of the ruling parties. Still they were all held in low regard.

Favorable/Unfavorable View Of Iraq’s Political Parties

Badr 36% Favorable, 43% Unfavorable

Ahrar 20% Favorable, 49% Unfavorable

Dawa 18% Favorable, 57% Unfavorable

PUK 15% Favorable, 56% Unfavorable

ISCI 14% Favorable, 57% Unfavorable

KDP 14% Favorable, 59% Unfavorable

Gorran 11% Favorable, 62% Unfavorable

Mutahidun 10% Favorable, 66% unfavorable

Iraqi Nationalists 6% Favorable, 71% Unfavorable

Despite Abadi’s high rating the majority of people believed that the country was going in the wrong direction. 65% felt that way compared to 26% who thought Iraq was heading the right way. Since 2012 most Iraqis had a negative opinion of the way the nation was heading. The easiest way to explain the pessimistic responses in 2015 would be to blame the war against the Islamic State. Since the feelings were steady for several years however other issues were probably at play, which led to the next question.

Is Iraq going in the right or wrong direction?

Nov 2010: 45% Right, 44% Wrong

Aug 2011: 37% Right, 50% Wrong

Nov 2012: 40% Right, 54% Wrong

Sep 2013: 31% Right, 65% Wrong

Dec 2014: 34% Right, 55% Wrong

Sep 2015: 26% Right, 65% Wrong

When asked what were the most important topics the government needed to deal with security and corruption were at the top of the list. Security was at 48% followed by corruption at 43%. After that services, 37%, jobs, 30% were the next highest. The displaced, sectarianism, inflation, schools, and the Baghdad-Irbil dispute all received 15% or less showing they were not major concerns. Instead, the war, graft, and the lack of opportunities and services were what Iraqis believed were the most pressing issues. That’s been true for the last decade as the insurgency rose and fell and returned, while the government has never been able to resolve chronic shortages in things like electricity in part due to the widespread theft amongst government officials.

What two issues are the most important for the government to address?

Security 48%

Corruption 43%

Basic services 37%

Jobs/unemployment 30%

Internally displaced 15%

Sectarianism 12%

High prices 5%

Education 3%

Central government-KRG dispute 2%

Few believed that the authorities were dealing with these problems. When asked how had the government responded to people’s needs three out of four regions said worse with the south at 68%, the west 50%, and Kurdistan 85%. Only in Baghdad did 37% say better versus 35% worse. Those were all higher than when people were asked that same questions in December 2014 showing growing frustration. Likewise, provincial governments did no better with 59% saying worse in Baghdad, 72% worse in the south, 66% worse in the west, and 70% worse in Kurdistan. Again, those were all worse then December 2014 with the exception of Kurdistan that was up 6%. This ties in with the low opinion of Iraq’s leaders and parties. Iraqis didn’t believe that their needs were being met, and blamed their representatives.

Is the government responsive to the people’s needs?

Baghdad 35% Worse, 37% Better

South 68% Worse, 24% Better

West 50% Worse, 20% Better

Kurdistan 85% Worse, 9% Better

Is the local government responsive to the people’s needs?

Baghdad 59% Worse, 33% Better

South 72% Worse, 22% Better

West 66% Worse, 21% Better

Kurdistan 70% Worse, 23% Better

Two solutions that have been proposed to help resolve Iraq’s chronic violence and political discord are to pass laws aimed at reconciliation and decentralize power neither of which rated well with respondents. When asked which law was the most important to be passed for political accommodation none of the three major ones before parliament seemed important. The Amnesty Law that would deal with prisoners got the most positive results, but that only stood at 26%. Even amongst Sunnis it only got 36%. The Federal Court law that would reform the judiciary received 16% and the National Guard Law that would create new regional defense units got 12%. Premier Abadi has tried to push the latter as a means to include Sunni forces into the government, but just 10% of Sunni respondents in the poll believed it was necessary. When the topic of giving the provinces more power was brought up it didn’t fare any better. Only 18% thought that would be very effective in solving problems with 54% saying somewhat. When asked what would be the best way to accomplish political reconciliation decentralizing power to the governorates the numbers went down to 14% thinking it would be very effective and 43% somewhat. This has been something that Abadi has pushed as well and the provincial councils have been lobbying for years for.

Which of the following laws before parliament are the most important to achieve political accommodation?

Amnesty Law

Overall 26%

Shiites 27%

Sunnis 35%

Kurs 9%

Federal Court Law

Overall 16%

Shiites 21%

Sunnis 5%

Kurds 15%

National Guard Law

Total 12%

Shiites 13%

Sunnis 10%

Kurds 11%

What are the most important ways to achieve reconciliation in Iraq?

Fair judicial process 49% Very Effective, 78% Somewhat Effective

Improving economy 38% Very Effective, 73% Somewhat Effective

Equitable sharing of resources amongst sects 37% Very Effective, 76% Somewhat

Effective

Equitable sharing of political power among sects 34% Very Effective, 80% Somewhat

            Effective

Giving provinces more power 18% Very Effective, 54% Somewhat Effective

Decentralizing power to provincial governments 14% Very Effective, 43% Somewhat

            Effective

What are the most important ways to achieve reconciliation in Iraq by sect

Fair judicial process Shiites 51%, Sunnis 59%, Kurds 27%

Improving economy Shiites 37%, Sunnis 40%, Kurds 37%

Equitable sharing of resources amongst sects Shiites 33%, Sunnis 52%, 19% Kurds

Equitable sharing of political power among sects Shiites 36%, Sunnis 40%, Kurds 19%

Giving provinces more power Shiites 20%, Sunnis 14%, Kurds 20%

Decentralizing power to provincial governments Shiites 11%, Sunnis 16%, Kurds 26%

For Sunnis the two most important issues were a fair judiciary, 59%, and equitable sharing of resources amongst the country’s sects, 52%. Mass arrests and prisoners being held indefinitely without warrants or after release orders have been issued have been long time complaints by the community as they feel like they are facing group punishment by the government. That would be partly dealt with by the Amnesty Law, which was why it received the highest importance from Sunni respondents amongst the three bills asked about. The sharing of resources and political power, which was at 40% amongst Sunnis ties in with the sects’ belief that they have gotten the short end of the stick by the Shiite parties since 2003. Even though government offices are all doled out by quotas and Sunni parties have been given a mix of meaningful, speaker of parliament, and symbolic positions, vice president, and a larger percentage of posts within each administration then their percentage in the population that has not changed the widespread belief that they have been marginalized. That applies to sharing the country’s oil wealth and development as well. How or even if these feelings can be overcome is one of the questions Iraq has struggled with for over a decade now and may not be resolvable since some Sunnis will not be happy until they rule the country once more.

For Shiites the two biggest issues were a fair judiciary as well, 51%, and improving the economy, 37%. Many see Iraqi courts as being corrupt and pliant to the ruling parties, and they also turn a blind eye to the institutionalized abuse that takes place for anyone that is arrested in order to obtain a confession. The judiciary for example, was a major point for protests that started across Iraq during the summer. The fact that the Federal Court law was not seen as an effective way to deal with this problem by both Sunnis and Shiites may reflect the fact that they don’t believe it will address the root problems with the judicial system. The economy is also stagnating due to the drop in oil prices. Since Iraq is a petroleum dependent country it has little leverage to pull itself out of this problem as it is dealing with forces outside of its control.

Finally, for Kurds the two top priorities were improving the economy, 37%, and equitable sharing of political power, 36%. Kurdistan’s economy has been hit even harder than the rest of the country because former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki stopped sending the region its share of the budget due to the dispute over who should control oil resources in 2014. While budget payments were temporarily revived under Abadi when a new agreement was made, that fell apart as well. In turn, that has meant the regional government has not been able to pay its workers for months nor the oil companies that it depends on to develop its energy sector that is paying the bills. Like the rest of Iraq the KRG is an oil dependent and public sector heavy economy meaning that any changes in the petroleum industry trickles down to all segments of the population. The Kurds also feel that they are not getting their fair share of power in Baghdad due to the Shiite parties. This hit a low point with the Maliki administration who directly challenge the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over a number of issues, and those negative feelings have carried over to Abadi. Like the Sunnis these perceptions are hard to change.

What these results show is that what has been bandied about both within and without Baghdad as some steps to resolve the country’s problems are not seen as important by the public. It also highlights that there are some issues upon which both Sunnis and Shiites agree upon like fixing the judiciary that the ruling parties could work on that would find widespread support. Then again there are more intractable disputes such as power sharing that are likely to go nowhere as both Sunnis and Kurds believe they are not getting enough positions as they are due, while Shiites think they have enough or even too much. The fact that so many Iraqis have a very low opinion of their government and the people elected to run it means they have little faith that these problems will be properly addressed anytime soon. Overall, Iraqis seemed to be very dissatisfied about their nation with few exceptions. That explains why there have been protests almost every year in the country that only gain token responses from the country’s leaders. Sadly the ruling parties are more concerned with preserving their own power and thinking of politics as a zero sum game where no concessions can be given to their rivals that blocks almost all serious work from being done other than what is necessary such as passing a budget so that things can keep running as they are. Until that changes many Iraqis will continue to feel frustrated.

SOURCES

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, “Lack of Responsiveness Impacts Mood, August-September 2015 Survey Findings,” 11/23/15

Iraq: Confident In PM And Government, But Hesitant About Economy

Gallup just released a new public opinion poll of Iraqis that was conducted at the end of 2014. 1,003 Iraqis from all of the country’s provinces were asked three questions about their confidence in the new Prime Minister Haider Abadi, what they thought of the government overall, and their opinion of the economy. Both the premier and government got high marks, but many Iraqis believed that the economic situation in the country was deteriorating.

The first question was did people approve or disapprove of the prime minister. Haider Abadi received a 72% positive rating. This was across the board with 78% in Baghdad, 78% in the south (Basra, Dhi Qar, Maysan and Muthanna), 74% in the mid-Euphrates (Najaf, Babil, Wasit, Qadisiyah, and Karbala), 72% in what Gallup termed the “Sunni Heartland” (Anbar, Kirkuk, Diyala, Ninewa, and Salahaddin), and 53% in Kurdistan (Irbil, Dohuk, and Sulaymaniya). That topped Maliki’s numbers who had a 50% approval rating in May-June 2014 and a 51% in September-October 2013. Maliki got especially low scores in Kurdistan and the Sunni Heartland with 12% and 30% respectively in May-June 2014. Maliki was in a two year dispute with the Kurdistan Regional Government over its oil policy, and his attempt to arrest Finance Minister Rafi Issawi set off a year long protest movement, which accounts for his low scores in those two parts of the country. The only area where Maliki did better than Abadi in the last two surveys was in the Mid-Euphrates where Maliki received 77% and Abadi 74%. Otherwise the country seems pretty happy with the change in leadership and the premier’s statements about reconciliation appeared to have won over a majority of every section of Iraq.

Do you approve or disapprove of the way _ is handling his job as prime minister

	Maliki	Maliki	Abadi
	Sep-Oct 2013	May-June 2014	Nov-Dec 2014
Iraq Overall	51%	50%	72%
Baghdad	57%	54%	78%
South	68%	77%	78%
Mid-Euphrates	69%	77%	74%
Sunni Heartland	40%	30%	72%
Kurdistan	13%	12%	53%

The second issue in the Gallup poll had to do with the central government and whether people had confidence in it or not. Again, the numbers were higher compared to the two previous surveys. For the country overall, 60% said they had confidence in Baghdad. Even 51% in the Sunni heartland and 55% in Kurdistan had a good view. In the previous poll from May-June 2014 only 43% were confident in the government, and 50% in September-October 2013. In the former approval ratings were as low as 40% in Kurdistan and 30% in the Sunni heartland. Again, Maliki’s policies were likely responsible for the low numbers in the 2013 and mid-2014 surveys, and the change in government has led to new optimism reflected in the newest results.

Do you have confidence in the national government or not?

	Sep-Oct 2013	May-June 2014	Nov-Dec 2014
Iraq overall	50%	43%	60%
South	54%	53%	66%
Baghdad	45%	44%	65%
Mid-Euphrates	55%	54%	63%
Kurdistan	41%	40%	55%
Sunni heartland	52%	30%	51%

Finally, Gallup asked Iraqis about whether they thought the economy was getting better or worse. The good feelings expressed in the first two questions were not replicated in the third where 56% said things were going badly, with only 37% saying better, and 5% saying the same. In June 2014 Iraqis were split with 45% saying things were better and the same number saying worse, while in October 2013 48% said things were worse, and 43% better. The drop in oil prices, which Iraq is dependent upon, and the subsequent budget problems the country is going through was likely a major factor. The war and massive displacement of people, has also increased jobless and poverty rates in Iraq adding additional pressure to an already troubled economy.

Do you think the economic conditions in Iraq as a whole are getting better or getting worse?

Oct 2013	June 2014	Dec 2014
48% getting worse	45% getting worse	56% getting worse
43% getting better	45% getting better	37% getting better
6% same	6% same	5% same

SOURCES

Owen, Travis and Fakreddine, Jihad, “Iraqis Have High Hopes for New Prime Minister,” Gallup, 3/19/15