The survey began with general questions about how people felt about Iraq. 33% said they believed the nation was heading in the right direction versus 66% that thought it was going the wrong way. The older people were the more cynical they became. 65% of young people aged 18-35 felt Iraq was going badly. That increased to 73% for people 56 years and older. Likewise people in the south and north were more skeptical. In Kurdistan 95% thought things were going the wrong direction and 69% in southern Iraq compared to 54% in central Iraq and 57% in Baghdad. These figures were actually better than a 2019 surveys. Then 24% of respondents felt Iraq was going in the right direction and 75% said wrong.
Do You think Iraq is heading in the right or wrong direction?
33% Right
66% Wrong
Aged 18-35
34% Right
65% Wrong
Aged 36-55
32%
67% Wrong
Aged 56+
26% Right
73% Wrong
Kurdistan
4% Right
95% Wrong
Central
46% Right
54% Wrong
Baghdad
42% Right
57% Wrong
South
30% Right
69% Wrong
March-April 2019
24% Right
75% Wrong
When asked about the future things were a little better. 43% said that things would be better versus 15% who had not much hope, 11% were apathetic, 11% feared the future, and 20% were totally disappointed. Again there was wide variation in responses based upon where people lived. In Kurdistan only 10% believed things would get better whereas in the rest of the country 44%-52% were positive.
How would you evaluate the prevailing mood of the population?
14% Future would be better
29% Hoped that future would be somewhat better
15% Not much hope for a better future
11% Apathetic
11% Fear of the future
20% Total disappointment
Kurdistan
1% Future would be better
9% Hoped that future would be somewhat better
25% Not much hope for a better future
22% Apathetic
17% Fear of the future
26% Total disappointment
Central
19% Future would be better
33% Hoped that future would be somewhat better
14% Not much hope for a better future
9% Apathetic
9% Fear of the future
17% Total disappointment
Baghdad
18% Future would be better
34% Hoped that future would be somewhat better
15% Not much hope for a better future
10% Apathetic
10% Fear of the future
13% Total disappointment
South
13% Future would be better
31% Hoped that future would be somewhat better
12% Not much hope for a better future
8% Apathetic
11% Fear of the future
24% Total disappointment
The next topic was Iraq’s political system. They had very mixed feelings about democracy. When asked whether democracy was the best type of government 43% said yes while 54% believed there were other kinds of government that might work better. People in Kurdistan were more positive with 77% saying democracy was good. That dropped to 44% in the center, 39% in the south and 35% in Baghdad.
Do you believe democracy is the best possible form of government for Iraq or not?
45% Yes
23% No there are other forms of government that could be equally good
31% No there are other forms of government that are better
Kurdistan
77% Yes
12% No there are other forms of government that could be equally good
9% No there are other forms of government that are better
Central
44% Yes
23% No there are other forms of government that could be equally good
32% No there are other forms of government that are better
Baghdad
35% Yes
26% No there are other forms of government that could be equally good
38% No there are other forms of government that are better
South
39% Yes
25% No there are other forms of government that could be equally good
35% No there are other forms of government that are better
When people were asked about Iraqi democracy the vast majority were not impressed. Only 5% said Iraq had a full democracy with another 11% saying it was nearly one versus 82% that stated it was flawed or not a democracy at all.
Thinking about Iraq’s current political system do you believe it is:
5% Full democracy
11% Nearly full democracy
33% Flawed democracy
49% Not a democracy at all
Respondents also didn’t believe the system was working for them. 86% said that the government only worked for some groups and not the general public. The basis of democracy is that the people are supposed to have their say and the officials respond to their needs. In Iraq however that doesn’t exist because of the country’s vast oil wealth separates the ruling from the ruled. Not only does the government not rely upon the people for taxes but the elite controls the wealth. That makes them believe that the public should answer to them instead of the other way around as democracy should work.
Do you consider Iraq to be governed in the interest of the majority of people or in the interest of some groups?
86% Some groups
14% Majority of people
Despite that deep level of cynicism those surveyed appeared to be ready to participate in this year’s elections. 34% said it was very likely they would vote, 27% said somewhat likely versus 11% somewhat unlikely and 27% very unlikely. By region 61% said they would probably vote in Kurdistan, 64% in the center, 59% in Baghdad and 60% in the south. That was a real contradiction because people in the survey didn’t have much faith in their government or the ruling class and yet felt like it was their responsibility to cast ballots.
How likely or unlikely are you to vote in the next parliamentary elections?
34% Very likely
27% Somewhat likely
11% Somewhat unlikely
27% Very unlikely
Kurdistan
24% Very likely
37% Somewhat likely
12% Somewhat unlikely
21% Very unlikely
Central
37% Very likely
27% Somewhat likely
10% Somewhat unlikely
25% Very unlikely
Baghdad
34% Very likely
25% Somewhat likely
12% Somewhat unlikely
28% Very unlikely
South
36% Very likely
24% Somewhat likely
9% Somewhat unlikely
30% Very unlikely
Added to that is the general belief that regular people have no say in decisions made by the government. Only 36% thought they could influence the government versus 61% who thought they couldn’t.
How likely or unlikely is it that ordinary people can influence decisions made in Iraq?
13% Very likely
23% Somewhat likely
17% Somewhat unlikely
44% Very unlikely
The survey tried to determine why people wanted to vote then. It appeared that people simply believed it was their civic duty to participate even if they didn’t believe in the government.
Which statement about voting comes closest to your opinion?
21% Gives me some say about how government runs things
41% Doesn’t really affect how the government runs things but still important to vote
35% Doesn’t really affect how government runs things, not really important to vote
Overall the survey found lots of divergent opinions by Iraqis about the government. People felt like Iraq was not doing well but some had hope for the future. They didn’t believe in the political system or the elite but believed they should still vote even if it didn’t really change anything. It will be interesting to see if the voter participation rate continues to drop in this year’s election based upon the generally cynical views expressed in the poll.
SOURCES
Center for Insights In Survey Research, “Nationwide Public Opinion Poll of Iraqi Citizens, August 28-September 25, 2020,” 12/15/20
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