New Poll Shows Disillusionment With The Promises Of Iraq’s Kurdistan

(Middle East Eye)

At the end of March Gallup did a public opinion poll in Kurdistan. It found that many residents did not think the region was much better than the rest of Iraq which was a major change.

 

The first question was about whether they people safe walking alone at night where they lived. 88% said they did in Kurdistan compared to 72% in the rest of Iraq. This was a large increase from 2008 when the same question was asked and 56% of people said they felt safe in Kurdistan versus 43% in the rest of the country. 2008 was when the civil war was ending in Iraq. That was likely the reason why so few believed they were safe in Iraq at that time. That led many to flee to Kurdistan for safety. Interestingly the region was not considered a bastion of security with only around 50% saying it was secure. Now that the fighting is over most people believe they can walk at whatever hour and not feel threatened.

 

Do you feel safe walking alone at night in the city/area where you live?

2008: Kurdistan 56%, Rest of Iraq 43%

2022: Kurdistan 88%, Rest of Iraq 72%

 

People were then asked about where was a good place for minorities to live in the Middle East. Kurdistan had the highest response at 84%. The rest of Iraq was at 59%. Many minorities such as Christians moved to the region to escape attacks upon their communities throughout the Iraq war. That continued when the Islamic State seized Mosul in 2014 and threatened Christians once more. Again, Kurdistan has often been seen as a safe haven in Iraq and these results reinforce that.

 

In The Middle East Countries/Regions where are adults most likely to see their area as a good place for racial/ethnic minorities?

Kurdistan 84%

Rest of Iraq 59%

 

Asked about the percent of people suffering Kurdistan and Iraq were almost the same at 16% for the former and 18% for the latter. In 2008, only 9% said people in Kurdistan were suffering against 34% in the rest of Iraq. It’s also noticeable that the figure has almost doubled in Kurdistan between the two polls. Since 2008 the Kurdish economy has run into major problems due to its independent oil policy. Baghdad cut off monthly budget payments as a result forcing the region to borrow heavily and accrue a massive debt which prohibited it from paying government workers which is the main source of employment. There have been strikes and protests for years afterward probably leading to these results.

 

% Suffering?

2008: Kurdistan 9%, Rest of Iraq 34%

2020: Kurdistan 16%, Rest of Iraq 18%

 

The problems with the economy led more people to be dissatisfied with living standards in Kurdistan. In 2008 53% said they were satisfied with living in Kurdistan, but that went down to 45% in 2022. Conversely in the earlier poll 48% said they were satisfied with living standards in the rest of Iraq which jumped to 72% by 2022. This reflected the wars ending in the country.

 

The same change occurred with jobs. In 2008 57% said it was a bad time to find a job in Kurdistan which increased to 66% by 2022. The negative view of job opportunities also increased in the rest of Iraq from 54% in 2008 to 65% in 2022. Iraq as a whole has run into problems creating enough employment for its youthful population. In the last few years oil prices have dipped twice causing massive issues with the government’s ability to pay workers and increase public jobs. The economy is so oil dependent it produces few other opportunities for work.

 

% Satisfied with living standards?

2008: Kurdistan 53%, Rest of Iraq 48%

2022: Kurdistan 45%, Rest of Iraq 72%

 

% Bad time to find a job?

2008: Kurdistan 57%, Rest of Iraq 54%

2022: Kurdistan 66%, Rest of Iraq 65%

 

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) promoted itself as the “other Iraq” where safety, business, living, etc. were all said to be better than the other parts of the country. On some issues like protecting minorities that remains true. In terms of the economy however perceptions have changed due to official mismanagement. The KRG’s oil policy backfired making the region unable to fulfill its half of the social contract. People gave loyalty to the ruling parties and in return they were given government jobs. Because of the KRG’s attempt to build an independent energy sector it was cut off from the national budget and fell into debt which meant it couldn’t pay its workers. That led to years of demonstrations and unrest which has led many people, especially the younger generation to become disillusioned with the promises of the region. That’s shown in this survey.

 

SOURCES

 

Loschky, Jay, “Life in Kurdistan: A Tale of Two Wars?” Gallup, 3/29/23