How Is The Islamic State Dealing With Its Defeat In Mosul? Interview With Charlie Winter On IS Media Output

More than half of Mosul has fallen to Iraqi government forces and it is only a matter of time before the whole city is retaken. How is the Islamic State portraying this defeat? Has it changed its messaging since the start of the battle? Charlie Winter a Senior Research Fellow at the International Center for the Study of Radicalization at King’s College, London and an Associate Fellow at the International Center for Counter-Terrorism – The Hague sheds light on this issue. He has been following The Islamic State’s media output throughout the Mosul campaign. He can be followed on Twitter @charliewinter.

Mosul Campaign Day 140, Mar 5, 2017

The Iraqi forces (ISF) went back on the offensive after a one day pause. On March 5 there were no operations due to the poor weather. On March 6 the ISF went back to work attacking along two fronts. First, the Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division continued their push up the Tigris River assaulting the Danadan and Dawas neighborhoods, taking the former. The Golden Division moved up the center of south Mosul into Sumoud, Tal Ruman, Shuhada and Mansour. Danadan, Dawas and Tal Ruman had all been declared freed before. In Tal Ruman, the Islamic State were using civilians as human shields to try to stop the Iraqi advance. U.S. Apache helicopters as well as the mix of Coalition and Iraqi planes were seen overhead. The ISF are still in the tip of south Mosul pushing into the center, but are making steady progress. As usual, the Islamic State is putting up a stiff defense, but it is only a matter of time before it is broken.

Musings On Iraq In The News

I wrote an opinion piece “Winning the war, losing the peace in Mosul’s east” for NRT.

Mosul Campaign Day 138-39, Mar 3-4, 2017

Wadi Hajar is the newest neighborhood freed by the Iraqi forces (Institute for the Study of War)

The Iraqi forces were still fighting over the initial areas of southeast Mosul. After several days of tough fighting the Golden Division finally freed the Wadi Hajar neighborhood on March 3 directly north of the Ghazlani Camp. The unit was then moving east towards the Tigris River to connect with the police units there. Dawas was still contested after it was unofficially declared liberated on February 28, and so was Mansour. On March 4 operations had to be halted because of bad weather and rain. The Islamic State took advantage of the poor conditions to launch a series of counterattacks. The insurgents are also using more suicide bombers. One army officer said there were at least 10 per day. Like east Mosul the going has been hard. Despite all the Iraqi propaganda that IS is a defeated force it is putting up a stiff defense. The question as always is how long can it sustain it before it breaks.

The Battle For West Mosul Interview With BBC’s Quentin Sommerville

On February 19 the campaign to retake Mosul began anew. The Iraqi forces attacked across three fronts with the Federal Police and Emergency Response Division (ERD) following the Tigris River up to Mosul Airport and then into south Mosul. The BBC’s Quentin Sommervile was embedded with the RRD during its initial assault on the city.

Mosul Campaign Day 137, Mar 2, 2017

Golden Division soldiers waiting in an alley west Mosul (Reuters)

March 2 was another day of hard fighting in south Mosul. The Islamic State took advantage of a rainstorm to attack the Golden Division. Some fighters were hiding amongst displaced families to approach the frontlines before revealing themselves. The Golden Division is currently trying to secure the Wadi Hajar neighborhood. Reporting has been very inconsistent on how far they’ve gotten. On February 28 the district was unofficially declared freed, then said to be 80% under control on March 1, and then just 70% on March 3. Whatever the figure is, the neighborhood is still hotly contested.

4,290 Dead And Wounded In Iraq In February 2017

With the Mosul campaign back underway casualties remained very high in Iraq. There were a total of 1,832 deaths and 2,458 wounded recorded during the month based upon daily research into over 40 media outlets, mostly Iraqi. An American General added that 500 members of the Iraqi forces (ISF) were killed and 5,000 wounded in the fight for east Mosul. When compared to previous reports that would add an additional 399 dead and 1,634 injured to the total. In January the figures were higher as the battle for east Mosul was still underway with 1,871 killed and 4,302 injured.