Mosul Campaign Day 207 May 11 2017

The northern and southern fronts of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have now connected in west Mosul and are heading towards east. The Hawi Kanisa neighborhood was the latest to be freed. Mesherfa was declared liberated as well after the last section was cleared on May 6. The next day fighting was reported going on there. Islah al-Zirahi was still under attack, and Iqtisadin was entered as well. The Iraqi command said that the 9^th Division, which initiated the northern assault was done as its armor was not suitable for the current street fights. Another army division, the 16^th, is now operating in the city joining the Golden Division and Interior Ministry forces. Together they are aiming for the Tigris River. They will then take on the Old City where the police got caught up in March, which caused the new northern offensive.

Mosul Campaign Day 205-206 May 9-10 2017

Comparison of maps 5/6/17 vs 5/9/17 shows recent advances in northwest Mosul (Ninewa Media)

The Iraqi forces (ISF) moved further into northwest Mosul. On May 9, the Tammuz 30 neighborhood was freed, while the Harmat 2 and 3, and July 17 areas were under attack. On May 10, Harmat 3 and Maamil were liberated, and Islah al-Zirahi and Hawi Kanisa were assaulted. General Mahdi Abbas Abdallah of the Rapid Reaction Division said that Islamic State fighters were attempting to flee the city. On the other hand, the Army Chief of Staff General Othman al-Ghanami predicted that the Mosul campaign would be over before the start of Ramadan. Starting in March the battle reached a turning point. While the Golden Division was pushing through the center of West Mosul, the Interior Ministry’s forces were stuck in the Old City with no real movement. That forced a change in strategy with the army’s 9^th Division backed by police units entering the northern section of the city. That was supposed to happen much earlier, but the Iraqis still have problems coordinating all their forces due to the multiple commands they operate under. The Islamic State had no real defenses in the north allowing the new line of attack to quickly advance. Now the north is largely freed and that front has connected with the Golden Division that has taken the center. Together they are now moving towards the Tigris River to take the last section of West Mosul in the east. Mosul has been the most intense urban warfare the government forces have faced, and it will be their largest victory as well when it’s all over.

Iraq Security Trends Jan 2016-Apr 2017

Today violence is down across most of Iraq. That’s due to the Battle for Mosul, which has concentrated almost all of the death and destruction to Ninewa. Many Islamic State fighters escaped the encirclement of the city however, and the group still controls territory in western Anbar and southern Kirkuk. The organization is also rebuilding in Diyala and Salahaddin. Despite that, the number of security incidents is down in all provinces save Ninewa.

2,677 Killed and 1,742 Wounded In Iraq April 2017

Violence was down in Iraq in April 2017 compared to March. That was due to a lull in fighting in Mosul, which is driving the security situation across the country.

There were 562 security incidents reported in the press in April, the lowest amount of the year. That was down from 712 in January, 617 in February, and 715 in March.

Mosul Campaign Day 203-204 May 7-8 2017

Red areas show where Iraqi forces have recently moved into in northern west Mosul (Ninewa Media)

The new thrust into northwest Mosul resulted in more victories for the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). On May 7, Harmat Thaniya, Tammuz 30 and Wadi Akab were attacked, and there was a second day of fighting in the Tammuz 17 neighborhood with more in Harmat 1 and Mesherfa that were freed the day before. The Islamic State often re-infiltrates into areas, so that could be expected. On May 8, Wadi Akab, Ghanem al-Sayid, and Shuqaq al-Harmat were liberated, and Tammuz 17 was still being fought over. More Iraqi units were being shifted from the center of the city to the north to push the advance further. The two Tammuz neighborhoods was where the Islamic State was constructing a defensive line to confront this new line of attack. The insurgents have done most of their fighting with small units. Those were all in the center of the city. This new front spreads out IS’s forces, which is why the ISF have been able to move forward so quickly.

How The Islamic State Has Fought The Battle For Mosul, Interview With Horizon Client Access’ Alex Mello

The battle for Mosul is in its sixth month. It is proving to be the most intense campaign of the entire war against the Islamic State in Iraq. That’s in part because the insurgents have changed their defenses from previous fights like in Fallujah and Ramadi. Recently the CTC Sentinel published an article “Defeat By Annihilation: Mobility And Attrition In The Islamic State’s Defense Of Mosul” detailing how the militants have fought in the city. This is an interview with one of the authors Alex Mello who is an Iraq security analyst at Horizon Client Access. Musings On Iraq first interviewed Mello back in 2014 about the deteriorating security situation in Iraq. He can be followed on Twitter @AlexMello02.

Musings On Iraq In The News

I was cited in “Bataille De Mossoul: La Police Et L’Armee Irakienne Progressent Difficilement Dans La Vieille Ville” by France Soir.