Musings On Iraq In The News

I was cited in “The Hashd al-Shaabi and Iraq, Subnationalism and the State” by Dylan O’Driscoll and Dave van Zoonen for the Middle East Research Institute.

Mosul campaign Day 166-167 March 31-April 1, 2017

The Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division are holding down Islamic State forces in the Old City along the Tigris River while the Golden Division are moving up its flank and advancing in the west fighting in areas such as Yarmouk (Medecins Sans Frontieres)

Federal Police fighting in the Old City district of west Mosul (Reuters)

For the first time the Islamic State was able to seize some territory from the Iraqi forces (ISF) inside Mosul. The insurgents took the Rajim al-Hadid neighborhood that was just freed on March 22. The area was being held by a tribal Hashd unit probably made up of locals. The Golden Division was still fighting in Yarmouk as well away and to the west of the Old City. A member of the Ninewa security committee said that there have been no real advances by the police for the last 15 days in the Old City. That stalemate has led to a revision of the battle plan. While the police hold down Islamic State fighters in the Old City, the Golden Division is moving up the flank to surround the district, while taking areas in the western section of the city.

Violence In Iraq, March 22-28, 2017

Violence stayed at relatively the same level between the third and fourth week of March. There were 152 reported incidents in Iraq from March 22-28. That was roughly the same as the previous week when there were 142.

Again, Ninewa led the country in violence with 100 incidents due to the Battle for Mosul. After that there were 21 in Baghdad, 10 in Diyala, 8 in Anbar, 6 in Kirkuk, 5 in Salahaddin, and 1 each in Babil and Najaf.

Mosul Campaign Day 164-65, March 29-30, 2017

Displaced people streaming out of west Mosul (Reuters)

The police continued their frontal assault to take the Grand Mosque in the Old City of west Mosul, but the real story was the Golden Division moving up the flank of the district. On March 29 the Federal Police freed Malab while there was fighting by the police and Golden Division in Yarmouk, Zinjali and Tanak. The next day the Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division took Alban, while Qadhib al-Ban was officially declared liberated. The Golden Division only reported taking an intersection and some buildings, showing that it was a slow day. The goal is for the police to tie down the Islamic State in the Old City, while the Golden Division surrounds the district. This is part of a revised battle plan after the ISF got bogged down trying to take the district. Now the goal is to attack the insurgents on multiple fronts.

Violence In Iraq, March 15-21, 2017

The number of security incidents dipped in Iraq during the third week of March 2017, but casualties remained relatively the same from the week before.

There were 142 incidents reported in the press from March 15-21, down from 170 the week before, and 179 the first week of March. The dip in violence might be a result of the stalemate in the battle for Mosul. The government forces have been stuck in the Old City section of west Mosul for the last few weeks leading to fewer clashes with the Islamic State. The third week of February when the assault upon west Mosul began there were 75 incidents in Ninewa. February 22-28 that went up to 102 incidents, then 108 March 1-7, 104 March 8-14, before going down to 87 Mach 15-21.

Mosul Campaign Day 163, March 28, 2017

The Iraqi forces (ISF) are implementing their new plan for Mosul. The Golden Division continued their march along the western flank of the Old City. They attacked the Yarmouk and Maghreb neighborhoods. The unit claimed it freed the former last week. The Federal Police on the other hand are continuing their frontal attack upon the district moving into Midan, Suq al-Shaareen, Qadhib al-Ban, and a railway station. The police were making little headway into the area due to its dense layout and strong defenses by the Islamic State. That led to a revision of the battle plan, which now consists of the police holding down the insurgents, while the Golden Division attacks them from the flank. This highlights the development of the ISF’s ability to strategize and execute their plans. These were things they were having problems with when the Mosul campaign initially started, but they have since adapted.

Mosul Campaign Day 162, March 27, 2017

Comparison of maps of Old City district of west Mosul March 19 vs March 27. The Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division are pushing from the south and have made no real advances over the last week. The Golden Division has advanced along the western section of the district however to attack the Islamic State from the flank.

Green is liberated, Red contested, Gold is Islamic State, Blue is the Tigris River (Iraqi Day)

The Iraqi forces (ISF) made contradictory remarks about their operations in Mosul. General Othman Ghanmi army chief of staff issued a statement that 50% of west Mosul was now under government control. ISF commanders have issued different figures and percentages on their progress based upon varying measurements. 50% is roughly right based upon the area of west Mosul. General Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah said there was no time limit on how long it would take to free the rest of the city. The government forces are fighting street to street, and the weather has been a hindrance as well. On the other hand the spokesman for the Joint Operations Command claimed that the battle for Mosul was done. The battle in fact has hit a stalemate forcing the Iraqi forces to change their battle plan. What is new is that the Golden Division has moved up the western side of the Old City district and to prepare to attack the Islamic State from its flank. Federal Police Commander Raed Jawadat stated that the Federal Police and the Rapid Reaction Division were making rapid progress in their assault upon the Old City. Some small advances were made. The two police forces are still aiming to taking the Grand Mosque in the district. The Golden Division’s General Abdul Wahab al-Saadi told the press that the Islamic State’s defenses had been destroyed around the mosque. That’s yet to be seen as the police are still roughly in the same area they have been for over a week now. Finally, according to a Federal Police officer reinforcements and 80 armored personnel carriers arrived as part of the change in tactics in the campaign. Those will not likely be used in the Old City where many of the streets are too narrow for vehicles to be used. They could also just be replacements to make up for losses.