Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has announced that Diyala province, northwest of Baghdad, will be the focus of the next government offensive. Diyala is one of the country’s most divided areas with steep sectarian divisions, internal Shiite and Sunni rivalries, one of the few provinces where Al Qaeda in Iraq is still strong, a problematic Sons of Iraq program, Kurdish designs on the northern regions, and a struggling government. All of Iraq’s deep-seated problems are evident in Diyala, and will be a true test for the government.
A Troubled Province …
Recent events in the province show just how volatile Diyala can be. At the beginning of May 2008, 300 Al Qaeda in Iraq fighters had a march with 50 pick up trucks through the village of al-Asiwa. In mid-April an insurgent car bomb went off in the provincial capitol of Baquba killing 50. At the beginning of that month, a parliamentarian from the secular Iraqi National List said that Kurdish Peshmerga fighters should withdraw from Diyala or be labeled militias by the government and be disarmed. From March to April U.S. forces raided police offices that were suspected of kidnapping Sunnis. In March when the government launched its offensive against the Mahdi Army in Basra, Sadrists attacked U.S. forces in Diyala in retaliation, which brought on Iraqi Army raids on Sadr’s offices in Baquba. Also in March, a mass grave of 52 bodies was found in the Diyala River Valley. Al Qaeda in Iraq had tried to impose its strict form of Islam upon the area and killed those that didn’t follow their rules. In February, the U.S. killed 3 Sons of Iraq (SOI) fighters, which caused 1000 of them to go on strike. That same month there was a protest against the Shiite provincial police chief, whom Sunnis accused of kidnapping and torture. In January, the New York Times reported that in the last six months 200 SOIs had been killed and 500 wounded in an upturn in attacks on U.S. organized volunteer fighters in the province.
Ruled By Shiites …
Diyala is a mixed province of Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds. There are many tribes in the area that are both Sunni and Shiite. After the U.S. invasion, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC) sent in its Badr Brigade militia to seize Diyala. They occupied government offices for 3 weeks and fought Baathists and Sunni tribes in the process. By late April 2003 U.S. marines moved in and disarmed the SIIC fighters, although they still held political sway. After the local elections in 2005 the SIIC and Dawa were able to take over the provincial council, with an SIIC governor.
The Shiite run government has not done well since gaining power. During the surge an extra American Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) was sent to Diyala with limited effect. The head of the PRT told the New York Times in September 2007 that the provincial government would promise anything to the Americans, but not delivery unless forced to. The constant violence in the province also made reconstruction difficult.
With Sectarian Tensions …
The Shiites also control the provincial police, which they have used against the Sunni population. During the sectarian war period, Badr controlled police carried out sectarian killings of Sunnis. By the fall of 2007 however, the rival Mahdi Army of Moqtada al-Sadr took over, with the same results. In August 2007 for example, the U.S. commander for Diyala complained that Iraqi security forces were targeting Sunnis and holding them for up to ten months with no trials. A U.S. general said that Diyala had one of the worst militia infiltrations in Iraq. In December there was a shoot out in the provincial capitol between Shiite police and a Sunni Sons of Iraq (SOI) unit. Things came to a head in February 2008 when hundreds of SOIs walked off the job and local Sunnis protested the provincial Shiite police chief they accused of kidnapping, raping, and killing two women. The protests eventually subsided, and the SOIs went back to work, but the sectarian divide still remains.
Fueled by The Insurgency …
Besides the security forces, another source of sectarian tension is that fact that many Al Qaeda in Iraq fighters fled to Diyala in late 2006. Many Shiites accuse the Sunnis of being Islamist sympathizers. It is one of the few areas where violence continued at a high level during the surge, and it has been used as a base for insurgent attacks. During early 2007 Al Qaeda in Iraq tried to impose its will on the province through threats and killings, even against fellow insurgents such as the 1920 Revolutionary Brigades and the Islamic Army. This caused a division in the insurgency, just as it did across Iraq. The 1920 Revolutionary Brigades largely switched sides as a result, and began joining the U.S. organized Sons of Iraq to fight Al Qaeda. Some of the tribes in the region also began working with the U.S. as a result. The two sides have seen bitter fighting since then. The U.S. has also launched several operations in the province to keep the insurgents off guard, but they haven’t been able to dislodge them.
And A Problematic SOI Program …
The U.S. organized Sons of Iraq (SOI) program has been credited with helping turning around security since the surge, but in Diyala it’s been a mixed bag. There are between 8,000-10,000 SOI fighters in the province. There have been constant clashes with not only the insurgents, but with the local police and with each other as well. In March 2008 for example, an SOI unit attacked a police checkpoint, while an SOI commander was killed by the U.S. That followed a report by the Provincial Reconstruction Team in February that rival SOI units were fighting each other for power. The government has also been reluctant to integrate the SOI. One frustrated SOI commander in Baquba threatened to rejoin the insurgency unless his fighters were allowed to join the police. In March however, Voices of Iraq reported that as part of the deal to end the SOI protests against the provincial police chief, 400 tribesmen were to be folded into the local security force.
With the Kurds On Top…
To add to the Sunni-Shiite problems, there is also the issue of Kurdish ambitions. The Kurds seek to annex portions of Diyala to Kurdistan. In November 2007 the Kurdish Minister for National Resources was on a trip to Washington where he gave a speech that included a map showing “liberated” and “non-liberated” areas of Kurdistan. Part of the non-liberated area included northern Diyala.
What Happens Next?
It’s into this fractious atmosphere that Prime Minister Maliki intends to send his forces next. Unlike in Basra, Sadr City, Mosul and Maysan province, he will not be facing one easy to identify foe. Rather, Diyala has Mahdi Army fighters, militia controlled police, Al Qaeda in Iraq and other insurgents, and Sons of Iraq, who are all fighting each other. How the government deals with this variety of groups will show whether Maliki is really capable of not only providing security, but whether he can fix some of the deep political divisions that continue to exist in Iraq.
Abedin, Mahan, “The Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI),” Middle East Intelligence Bulletin, October 2003
Agence France Presse, “Anti-Qaeda fighters in street protest against city police chief,” 2/8/08
- “Seven killed as Shiite militants clash with Iraqi police,” 3/16/08
Ahmed, Hamid, “Iraq: Shiite cautions on ‘awakening,’” Associated Press, 12/21/07
Ali, Ahmed, “IRAQ: Sectarianism Splits Security in Diyala,” Inter Press Service, 8/7/07
Alsumaria, “Diyala council calls for military operation,” 4/4/08
- “Iraq awakenings threaten to halt cooperation,” 3/22/08
Associated Press, “Iraq drawdown to begin in volatile area,” USA Today, 10/17/07
Bakier, Abdul Hameed, “Al-Qaeda Adapts its Methods in Iraq as Part of a Global Strategy,” Terrorism Monitor, 12/20/07
Bennett, Brian, “Arming Iraq’s Future Street Gangs?” Time, 2/5/08
Bowen, Stuart, “Effectiveness Of The Provincial reconstruction Team Program In Iraq Statement Of Stuart W. Bowen, Jr. Special Inspector General For Iraq Reconstruction Before The United States House Of Representatives Committee On Armed Services Subcommittee On Oversight And Investigations,” Special Inspector General For Iraq Reconstruction, 10/18/07
Burns, John and Rubin, Alissa, “U.S. Arming Sunnis in Iraq to Battle Old Qaeda Allies,” New York Times, 6/11/07
Chon, Gina, “Under U.S. Pressure, AL Qaeda in Iraq Shifts Tactics,” Baghdad Life Blog, Wall Street Journal.com, 1/20/08
Cordesman, Anthony, “The Evolving Security Situation in Iraq: The Continuing Need for Strategic Patience,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1/21/08
- “Iraq’s Insurgency and Civil Violence,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8/22/07
- “Iraqi Force Development: A Progress Report,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8/23/07
Dagher, Sam, “Will ‘armloads’ of US cash buy tribal loyalty?” Christian Science Monitor, 11/8/07
Daragahi, Borzou, “Security may trump ethnicity in Kirkuk,” Los Angeles Times, 9/28/07
Davidson, Christina, “KRG Governing ‘Liberated’ Iraqi Kurdistan,” IraqSlogger.com, 11/27/07
Department of Defense, “Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq,” March 2008
DVIDS News, “Paramount Sheiks Sign Peace Agreement,” 5/2/07
Farrell, Stephen, “U.S. Attack in Iraq Is No Surprise to Many Insurgents,” New York Times, 1/9/08
Glanz, James and Kamber, Michael, “Shiite Militias Cling to Swaths of Basra and Stage Raids,” New York Times, 3/30/08
Gordon, Michael, “The Former-Insurgent-Counterinsurgency,” New York times, 9/2/07
Greenwell, Megan, “Villagers Battle Insurgents After Attack on Sheik Near Baqubah,” Washington Post, 8/24/07
Gumbrecht, Jamie and Yousse, Nancy, “In Iraq, U.S. airstrikes target insurgents near supposedly safe zone,” McClatchy Newspapers, 1/10/08
Hurst, Steven, “Violence lessens in Baghdad as it grows elsewhere,” San Francisco Chronicle, 8/26/07
Goldenberg, Ilan“Sunni Infighting Threatens Iraq’s Stability,” National Security Network, 2/12/08
International Crisis Group, “Iraq After The Surge II: The Need for a New Political Strategy,” 4/30/08
Kagan, Kimberly, “The Anbar Awakening: Displacing al Qaeda from Its Stronghold in Western Iraq,” Institute For The Sstudy of War and WeeklyStandard.com, 8/21/06-3/30/07
Katulis, Brian, Juul, Peter, and Moss, Ian, “Awakening to New Dangers in Iraq,” Center for American Progress, February 2008
LaFranchi, Howard, “Iraq bombings target US-allied, anti-Al Qaeda groups,” Christian Science Monitor, 4/18/08
Lannen, Steve, “America’s Sunni allies go on strike in Iraq’s Diyala province,” McClatchy Newspapers, 2/8/08
- “U.S. soldiers helping pacify Iraq’s violent Diyala province,” McClatchy Newspapers, 4/3/08
Mohsen, Amer, “Iraqi Papers Thur: Sunni-Kurdish Pact,” IraqSlogger.com, 12/26/07
Moore, Solomon and Oppel, Richard, “Attacks Imperil U.S.-Backed Militias in Iraq,” New York Times, 1/24/08
Nordland, Rod, “The Surge Draws Down,” Newsweek, 11/24/07
Nouri, Naseer and Raghavan, Sudarsan, “Bomb Kills Iraqi Police Chief Praised by U.S.,” Washington Post, 12/10/07
Oppel, Richard and Al-Husaini, “Suicide Bomber Kills Key Sunni Leader,” New York times, 1/8/08
Porter, Gareth, “Sunni Insurgents Exploit U.S.-Sponsored Militias,” Inter Press Service, 3/4/08
Raghavan, Sudarsan, “20 Die as Gunmen Descend on Village,” Washington Post, 12/2/07
Raghavan, Sudarsan and Paley, Amit, “Sunni Forces Losing Patience With U.S.,” Washington Post, 2/28/08
Ridolfo, Kathleen, “Iraq: Al-Qaeda Tactics Lead To Splits Among Insurgents,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 4/17/07
Roggio, Bill, “1920s Revolution Brigades turns on al Qaeda in Diyala,” Long War Journal.org, 6/12/07
- “Al Qaeda establishes ‘a haven in Diyala,’” Long War Journal.org, 12/30/07
- “Amariyah, the Anbar Salvation Council and Reconciliation,” Long War Journal.org, 6/1/07
- “The Diyala Salvation Front,” Long War Journal.org, 5/10/07
-“Pressure on Sadr and the Iranian-backed Special Groups continues,” Long War Journal.org, 2/18/08
Rubin, Alissa and Cave, Damien, “Envoy’s Upbeat Tone Glosses Over Baghdad’s Turmoil,” New York Times, 9/11/07
Samuels, Lennox, “The Protection Business,” Newsweek, 1/11/08
Shahine, Alaa, “Qaeda changing tactics in Iraq’s Diyala: U.S. general,” Reuters, 12/8/07
Smith, Doug and Rasheed, Saif, “Sects unite to battle Al Qaeda in Irqa,” Los Angeles Times, 11/19/07
Steinberg, Guido, “The Iraqi Insurgency,” German Institute for International and Security Affairs, December 2006
Strobel, Warren and Youssef, Nancy, “Paltry results of Iraqi offensive silence U.S. withdrawal talk,” McClatchy Newspapers, 4/1/08
Tait, Paul, “Female suicide bomber kills Iraq tribal head: police,” Reuters, 3/10/07
Tarabay, Jamie, “Anbar Alliance May Not Translate to Other Provinces,” All Things Considered – National Public Radio, 9/25/07
Tavernise, Sabrina, “In Air Attack, U.S. Soldiers Kill 18 Gunmen,” New York Times, 8/25/07
Therolf, Garrett, “Sunni anger in Iraqi province,” Los Angeles Times, 2/14/08
Tomkins, Richard, “Iraq: Al-Qaeda Killing Field Found Near Farming Village,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 3/31/08
- “Iraq: U.S. Troops Target Errant Iraqi Police,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 4/18/08
Tyson, Ann Scott, “Iraq Is Criticized for Slow Hire of Police,” Washington Post, 10/27/07
- “Sunni Fighters Find Strategic Benefits in Tentative Alliance With U.S.,” Washington Post, 8/9/07
- “Tribal Members Join in Effort To Assist U.S., Iraqi Forces,” Washington Post, 9/30/07
UN Assistance Mission For Iraq, “Human Rights Report 1 April – 30 June 2007,” U.N., 10/12/07
Voices of Iraq, “300 al-Qaeda fighters hold military parade in Diala,” 5/3/08
- “Anti-Qaeda fighters return to HQ in Diala,” 3/2/08
- “Clashes leave 6 policemen, popular committees members killed in Diala,” 2/10/08
- “IED kills 3 governor bodyguards, wounds 2 in Diala,” 1/19/08
- “MPs, Islamic Party agree to pacify the situation in Diala – source,” 2/18/08
- “Ninewa MPs calls for dissolving Peshmerga fighters,” 4/8/08
- “Popular Committees’ fighters attack police checkpoint in Diala,” 3/23/08
- “Popular committee’s senior element killed by U.S. fire in Diala,” 3/24/08
- “Sunni, Shiite figures hold reconciliation conference in Diala,” 3/21/08
Yoshino, Kimi, “Unrest in Iraq’s Diyala province,” Los Angeles Times, 1/5/08
Youssef, Nancy, “Baghdad violence, U.S. deaths hit new lows for year,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/31/07
Zavis, Alexandra, “A different kind of power struggle in Iraq,” Los Angeles Times, 3/24/08
- “Militants stake claim on Diyala River valley,” Los Angeles Times, 2/5/08
1935 Iraqi air force dropped flyers telling tribes to end revolt in Diwaniya or govt would punish them Tribes refused ...
Dr. Michael Izady of Columbia’s School of International and Public Affairs recently gave an interview to the Swiss-based International Relat...
While the total number of security incidents went down from September to October in Iraq, Islamic State operations in the country have slowl...
Fishman, Brian, The Master Plan, ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and the Jihadi Strategy For Final Victory , New Haven & London: Yale University Press, ...