Sunday, October 25, 2009

Baghdad Bombing Follows Trend In Violence In Iraq

Today’s devastating bombing on the Justice and Municipalities Ministries, and the Baghdad provincial council building in the capital follows the current trend in Iraqi violence. Since April 2009, the number of deaths has fluctuated up and down each month. According to Iraq’s ministries for example, there were 355 deaths in April, 165 in May, 438 in June, 275 in July, 456 in August, and 203 in September. The other major sources on Iraqi casualties (Iraq Body Count, icasualties, the Brookings Institute, and the Associated Press) all record the same pattern. One could predict then, that October 2009 would see an increase in casualties. Already there have been 214 deaths due to mass casualty bombings this month, 135 from today’s bombing alone. Monthly deaths are still at their lowest levels since the 2003 U.S. invasion.

The ebb and flow of violence shows the relative weakness of militants. They are only able to launch large attacks every other month. This month does show their increasing ability to carry out headline grabbing bombings however, in their attempt to destabilize the government, just as they did in August when they bombed the Finance and Foreign Ministries. That incident along with today’s undermine Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s claim that he has brought security to Iraq, which might hurt his re-election campaign in the 2010 vote.

It’s also important to remember not to track overall security in Iraq based upon such bombings. There is no direct correlation between such attacks and overall security incidents in Iraq or casualties. In June 2009 for instance, there were 14 mass casualty bombings resulting in 174 deaths. For July there were 35 such attacks and 180 casualties, yet June had more deaths overall than July. According to the latest statistics released by the U.S. military, the number of overall security incidents in Iraq has also stayed pretty much steady since March 2009 at just about 200 per week. Overall, casualties in Iraq are still at unacceptable levels, but they are nowhere near as bad as they were during the sectarian war.


Al-Anbari, Bassim, “Triple attacks kill 19 in western Iraqi city,” Associated Press, 10/12/09

Associated Press, “Police: Suicide bomber kills 11 at mosque,” 10/16/09
- “Suicide bomb kills 6 at funeral,” 10/6/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “10 civilians wounded in Babel blast,” 10/4/09
- “Blast kills 1, wounds 9 north of Hilla,” 10/18/09
- “Sticky bomb kills 2 women, injures 12 persons in Babel,” 10/21/09
- “Suicide attack leaves 16 casualties in Diala,” 10/13/09

Bernama, “Civilian Killed, 10 Injured In Bomb Attack In Baghdad Snack Restaurant,” 10/19/09

Cordesman, Anthony, "Recent Trends in the Iraq War: Maps and Graphs," Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10/1/09

DPA, “Four policemen killed in Iraq,” 10/17/09

Hammoudi, Laith, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday 18 October 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/18/09

Issa, Sahar, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 8 October 2009,” McClatchy Newspapers, 10/8/09

ITN, “Clear up after Iraq minibus bombing,” 10/7/09

Kimball, Jack, “Attacks kill 11, wound over 50 people,” Reuters, 10/15/09

McClatchy Newspapers, “Car bombs explode in Baghdad, killing at least 135 people,” 10/25/09

Reuters, “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 11,” 10/11/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Oct 18,” 10/18/09

Shadid, Anthony, “Scores killed, at least 500 wounded in bomb attacks in Baghdad,” 10/25/09

Surk, Barbara, “Bombs kill 6 around Iraq,” Associated Press, 10/20/09

Xinhua, “2 killed, 13 wounded in Baghdad bomb attack,” 10/18/09
- “12 people wounded in bomb explosion in south Baghdad,” 10/21/09
- “Bomb explosion kills 3 south of Baghdad,” 10/8/09


amagi said...

I hate how this has become the 'new normal.' Just as one starts to get optimistic... I begin to feel as though this is the way of things for the next 30 years, and that when the mass casualty bombings finally stop, the Middle East is going to look nothing like it does today.

Maybe we should pray it only takes 30 years...

Joel Wing said...

Things change though. I count three phases that Iraq has gone through already, post-invasion chaos, division leading to sectarian war, now turn to politics. The violence has gone up and down with each of those. I don't know how long it'll take to get out of it though, probably a decade at least, but I think it'll eventually stabilize when the elites work out all their problems. By then not only will the Middle East probably look different, but Iraq could too.

Anonymous said...

My sister in law miraculously escaped her death by yesterday blast at Baghdad provincial council building. She had many injuries in here body but she managed after 1.5 hour reaching here home which is 7km fare from the explosions.
She is in state of shock and disbelieve, she saw here colleges heads chopped by the scattered class on the ground near her place.

Some history about the Justice and Municipalities Ministries building:

They were built let 70s early 90s, by German company it’s was peace of art in Baghdad.
Its was bombed by US in 1991 war I remember pass in the main road seen papers all over the place the official from the blast.
During 13 years of sanction Iraqi engineers managed to repaired the building and return to life again, but not as perfect due to restriction and limitation of sanction.
Just a year ago same German company start repairing the building and the ministry start working few months back from this building.

There is one thing here I can not find answers to it; there pictures show there in some one had camera and recording the incident!! Who is this man, why he is videoing, and how it’s happen just second before the explosions he is ready to record?

Same words same tone by Maliki, what he done before when 300-400 Iraqis killed each day by criminal and gangs were are they did they caught and brought to justices?

Just last week there was a big blow to bridge on the western highways blown up, initial official story report was US bomber/ Rocket hit bridge and damage it, then the story changed and same accusations again ….

Joel Wing said...

“ post-invasion chaos, “US made chaos no doubt about that. US/UK remember who Caught red-handedBritish Undercover Operatives in Iraq in Basra and freed by UK military, or the massacre in the market in Babylon city when some local witness sow US fighter in the sky just seconds before the rocket reach the area.

“division leading sectarian war,” remember Samora Shrine bombing, it was curfew from 8pm to 6.30am, people reported they saw US solders and Iraqi militia leaving the place just before the lifting of curfew morning soon after that the explosions happened, Atwar Bahajat was kidnapped and tortured and killed, Maliki done nothing.

“turn to politics.” Again US using Iraqis as sheep in theatre of death in name of politics to set their goals.
Another case the Zewya Bank robbery by Adel Abdul Mahadi Militia, were 8 bank guard killed and billions stolen from the bank, Maliki done nothing just said they retrieved the money, God know were the money.

ambassador Khalilzad oversaw a period of extreme violence by U.S military forces and private sector contractors, as well as deep-rooted corruption. Asma al-Musawi, a parliamentarian, said that she did no welcome his return to the country on the back of his involvement in “financial corruption, bribery and the misuse of government money ".

Joel Wing said...

I'm glad to hear that your sister made it out of today's chaos alive. That must have been a devastating experience.

That being said, I don't believe any of those conspiracy stories that the U.S. has been behind those attacks. This is very popular in Iraq and shows the frustration with the U.S. presence, but are made up. I just heard a replay of this story from an American reporter working in Baghdad in 2004-2005. There was a big car bombing in downtown Baghdad. There were car parts strewn all over the place, yet Iraqis said that a U.S. missile did it and that if it was a car bomb there would be signs of the car, which there were, but they were literally ignoring the evidence right in front of them. Perhaps it's a way for Iraqis to cope with all the violence.

Anonymous said...

Joel Wing said...
That being said, I don't believe any of those conspiracy stories

Our high school teacher from Oakland, “ conspiracy stories ? …… hum….

You are either a copy or a ”REFLECTIONS” American Ignorance
Ignorance or you just one member of the liars bunch who sold and still selling Iraq war and WMD with all the crape of freedom and democracy wittiness all over the world. This bunch of lairs who deserved and still not awaking by the thrown shoes on your master by Muntazar al-Zaidi

Is it “conspiracy stories” those SIS caught in Basra and the images of UK forces demolished the Iraqi prison a “conspiracy stories”? Who lie here & why? Are those people you went to free them in south Iraq from brutal doctor and tyrant regime? Why they lie? Years crying for them and writing about them years and what their suffering under tyrant regime and how the Marsh dried and killed the wiled life of thousands of “humans” their?

Tell us after six years& half what you done with Marshes and with those lady Anna Nicholson mission of hope and disperse in Iraq with all USAID with billions reconstructions and humanitarian aids to those who suffered most from tyrant regime?

Look our teacher my advise to you go and do your PhD in America undercover operations history like “Operation Hotel California: or the adoption of the 'Salvador Option' in Iraq you will find the answers what the “conspiracy stories” means.

I convinced now before you don’t know the difference between Iraq and Iran, also as same as your handlers who can’t you Tell a Sunni From a Shiite?
Our > conspiracy stories teacher, Iraqis had and has 5000 years of civilization they have nothing to do with a teacher from Oakland start to read and write about them. That why the looting of their art facts happen because people like you they don’t value the history and civilizations they looking for theft of others land and God gifted richness.

Our teacher with American Ignorance you drawing up pie-in-the-sky with your Thesis on the rise of Islamist groups just like this imperfect lie Cars stolen in the US used in car bombings in Iraq.

Is it Iraq have not cars?, or you short mind thinks Iraqis living on camels and tent in a big desert without drinking water and without house and streets and all your civilized nation do?

I tell one early stories that came from you mouth of you solders when entered Iraq talking about Baghdad’s highways they said they are better that California once!!

Perhaps it's a way for Iraqis to cope with all the violence.

the cause for a nation looking to hold accountable the forces that caused such death and destruction on our beloved country.

God luck with your bubble dude.

Iraqi Mojo said...

"Perhaps it's a way for Iraqis to cope with all the violence."

I think it's a way for Arabs to deflect blame from Arabs. They don't want to face the problems of sectarianism and totalitarianism in the Arab world. It's much easier to blame America.

Joel Wing said...

Maliki's brother just got arrested trying to smuggle Iraqi antiquities out of the country to sell on the black market. Must be the Americans fault!

Anonymous said...

Joel Wing

What expected by "Thugs on US Tank" will do?

Thugs love Thugs.

Tell me which biggest $9Billon theft by Jerry Bremer III or your "Thugs on US Tank"?

Anonymous said...

I sometimes think that the people who are most involved in the war in Iraq are little more than bean counters: how much of this artillery, how many more troops, what changes in strategy .... the simple fact is we are there because American oil wants control of Iraqi crude. Period. Our national military is working for ExxonMobil et al. It is an enterprise of imperialism pure and simple and therefore Americans will always be the enemy there. Always. Installing a puppet dictator like al-Maliki to hand over the oil will only make them hate us more. Al-Maliki will be as brutal as Saddam was if that's what it takes to take control of the country. The U.S. will support him so long as he does our bidding: can you say the "shah of Iran"... the story is identical.
As for "elections" in Iraq, they are pre-determined by our veto of politicians and political parties that the US does not approve of.

Joel Wing said...

I would really disagree with that characterization about American oil and puppets.

There are only 2 U.S. oil companies working in Iraq, and they are very small and operate in Kurdistan where they can't even export and are doing more exploration than anything else. Their contracts have also been declared illegal by the Oil Ministry.

Outside of Kurdistan Iraq's oil is state run, and there's only one foreign company doing work there, and it's Chinese.

Iraq was also exporting far more oil under Saddam than now, so the U.S. is actually getting less petroleum from Iraq now than before the invasion.

As far as Maliki, he is not a dictator. The Iraqi government is too divided to have a strongman right now and Maliki isn't even assured of getting re-elected after the 2010 elections.

Oil obviously makes Iraq important, but American planners in the Bush administration had a whole range of reasons why they wanted to remove Saddam. For those that thought about oil, it was in the strategic sense of getting Saddam out so that he didn't threaten the flow of oil out of the Persian Gulf that the world economy, and in turn the U.S. relies upon. It wasn't about going in and taking over. If they wanted to do that, they could have privatized the oil industry under Bremer and moved in years ago, but they didn't.

Anonymous said...

لى ذلك، قال رياض مهدي محمد (41 عاما): «لا ندري إن كان ذلك من عمل الأحزاب السياسية أم (القاعدة) أم دول مجاورة أم الأميركيين». لكنه أضاف أن الأميركيين يتحملون اللوم لأنهم «يسيطرون على كل شيء، من السماء إلى الأرض».

Joel Wing said...

if your country have no interest in Iraq pleas take your troop and go home leave us to sort our problem.

In last 6.5 yers how many polls iraqis voiced No to ocuupation?

your thugs you put them in power these thugs promoted by your admin, all these election are fraud rigged. you well hats going on but reread my post before your are just deaf and blind wait one day you will be weaken up but time out for you.

This Day In Iraqi History - Jul 24 Treaty of Lusanne said League of Nations would decide whether Mosul vilayet went to Iraq or Turkey

  1920 France occupied Syria Defeated King Faisal’s forces leading him to flee Would set sites on Mesopotamia afterward ...